Macro. Market. Movers.

Read the hottest topics of the day from the LPL Research thought leaders. From stocks and bonds to the latest data from the government and everything in between, you’ll find the team’s expansive range of investing and economic expertise — served up in granular detail.

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Weekly Market Performance — November 1, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of October 28, 2024, highlights Mag Seven earnings, key economic data, and a continued rise in Treasury yields.

Spooky Volatility Brews as Seasonality Improves

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores implied volatility going into the election and the improving seasonal setup for stocks.

Consumers Keep Growth Going on All Cylinders

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research discusses the latest trends in the economy and potential implications for future Federal Reserve policy.

Do Good Times Make Bad Times? P/Es and Returns

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines the relationship between the S&P 500 P/E ratio and forward returns.

Weekly Market Performance — October 25, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of October 21, 2024, highlights a busy week for earnings, rising Treasury yields, and fluctuating oil prices.

Yields on the Rise

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores what’s behind the recent rebound in yields and the potential impact higher yields could have on equity markets.

All That Glitters Is Not Gold

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the recent rally in gold and how high-earning millennials are supporting retail spending.

The Return of the Treasury Term Premium

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines what a positive Treasury term premium is and what it means for the market.

Weekly Market Performance — October 18, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of October 14, 2024, highlights key bank earnings, the ECB rate cut, and the latest economic stimulus in China.

Breakout in the Banks

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores bank earnings and highlights why the latest rally could have more room to run.

Surprise! Economic Data Better Than Expected Lately

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research points out why Treasury yields are higher lately despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates recently.

What Fund Flows Tell Us About Investor Sentiment

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research explores September, third quarter, and year-to-date fund flows data and investor sentiment across asset classes.

Weekly Market Performance — October 11, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of October 7, 2024, highlights Fed rate-cut bets, the start of earnings season, and rising Treasury yields.

Happy Anniversary Bull Market!

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research checks in on the status of the bull market as it approaches its second anniversary.

Stock Markets: What To Expect When We’re Electing

| George Smith

LPL Research examines how this presidential election year compares to previous cycles with regards to stock markets returns.

What’s New With Fixed Income?

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research discusses how the fixed income landscape has evolved and where certain positioning makes the most sense.

Weekly Market Performance — October 4, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 30, 2024, highlights U.S. jobs data, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and rising oil prices.

Chinese Stocks Charge Into Bull Market Territory

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights recent policy changes in China and how they have impacted equity and fixed income markets.

Alternative Strategies During Rate Cut Cycles

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research provides an update on how the infrastructure market has evolved and where it fits in a traditional portfolio.

October Seasonals: Trick or Treat?‍

| George Smith

LPL Research explores what clues seasonality can give us about markets for the remainder of 2024.‍

Weekly Market Performance — September 27, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 23, 2024, highlights AI-related earnings, economic data, and the Chinese economic stimulus package.

It’s What’s Priced In That Matters

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines why Treasury yields are higher lately despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates recently.

Why Did the Fed Go Bold?

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the reasons the Fed decided to cut rates by a half percentage point.

What Do Gains Tell Us About the Fourth Quarter?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research examines what year-to-date gains could mean for the fourth quarter.

Weekly Market Performance — September 20, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 16, 2024, highlights the Fed rate cut, global central bank decisions, and rising Treasury yields.

Gold Continues To Shine

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights the recent pivot in monetary policy and what it could mean for gold.

What Rate Cuts Could Mean for Equity Sectors

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines market expectations on the potential impact rate cuts could have on stock sectors and style tilts.

August 2024 Fund Flows Recap

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research explores August fund flows data and investor sentiment across asset classes.

Weekly Market Performance — September 13, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 9, 2024, highlights the U.S. stock rebound, technology leading gains, and falling Treasury yields.

Defense Takes the Field

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the recent shift toward defensive leadership in equity markets.

Global Central Banks Start Synchronized Easing

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the impact of central bank policy on the yield curve.

Is the Stock-Bond “Free Lunch” Back on the Table?

| George Smith

LPL Research discusses how short-term stock-bond correlations have recently turned negative.

Weekly Market Performance — September 6, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of August 26, 2024, highlights a tough start to September for both U.S. and international equities.

A Recovery or Relief Rally in Stocks?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the technical setup for the S&P 500 and highlights how stocks perform around V-shaped recovery periods.

Is September Seasonality a Headwind for Stocks?

| George Smith

LPL Research explores what clues seasonality can give us about markets for the remainder of 2024.

Distressed Market Update

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research provides an update on the distressed debt investment landscape.

Weekly Market Performance — August 30, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of August 26, 2024, highlights key tech earnings, high-profile economic data, and shrinking Treasury yield spreads.

What Does a Rate Cut Mean for Stocks and Bonds?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the potential impact rate cuts could have on equity and fixed income markets.

The Evolving Landscape for Rate Cuts

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the Federal Reserve's recent economic symposium and its implications for interest rates, consumer spending, and investment strategies.

The Time Has Come for Policy To Adjust

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines market expectations on future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Weekly Market Performance — August 23, 2024‍

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of August 19, 2024 highlights Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, global economics, and falling bond yields.‍

All Eyes on Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research previews the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

July 2024 Fund Flows Recap

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores July 2024 fund flows data and investor sentiment across asset classes.

Weekly Market Performance — August 16, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of August 12, 2024, highlights key economic data, high-profile earnings, and falling oil prices.

Curve Spreads Climb Closer to Breakeven

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores curve spreads and how they relate to recessions and equity market performance.

The Ins and Outs of Active ETFs

| George Smith

LPL Research explores the burgeoning active ETF landscape and where they might be the right fit.

Weekly Market Performance — August 9, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of August 5, 2024, highlights the recent sell-off, yen carry-trade unwinding, and rising crude oil prices.

A Deeper Dive Into the Carry Trade

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the recent market volatility and yen carry trade.

More Pullback Perspective

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines the history of market drawdowns to make the case that this latest bout of volatility is normal and to be expected.

Navigating the Storm: Insights on Market Volatility

| George Smith

LPL Research puts the latest bout of market volatility in historical perspective and discusses what it could mean for stocks going forward.

Thoughts on the Market Selloff

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL discusses the latest stock market selloff, including causes, perspective on the economic backdrop, bond market perspective, and technical analysis insights.

Weekly Market Performance — August 2, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of July 29, 2024, highlights central bank decisions, Mag Seven earnings, and soft jobs data.

Can Stocks Predict Another Election Outcome?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research evaluates the predictive ability of stock market performance and election outcomes.

What Does Fed Action Imply for Small Caps?

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the impact of rates and the economy on small caps.

The Evolving Infrastructure Market

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research provides an update on how the infrastructure market has evolved and where it fits in a traditional portfolio.

Weekly Market Performance — July 26, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of July 22, 2024, highlights a surging yen, cooling economy, and disappointing big tech earnings.

Assessing the Technical Damage

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research assesses the technical damage of the S&P 500 and explores how stocks perform after reaching historically overbought levels.

The “Great Reshuffle” Could Be Nearly Over

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the changing dynamics within the housing market and what it means for markets and the economy.

A Deep Dive into 2024’s Fund Flow Activity

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores June, second quarter (Q2), and year-to-date (YTD) fund flows data and investor sentiment across asset classes.

Weekly Market Performance — July 19, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of July 15, 2024, highlights S&P 500 volatility, a broad market rotation, and a global cyber outage.

Election Anxiety? Could Bonds Calm Your Fears?

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines how high-quality bonds have performed during various presidential election cycles.

The Economy at a Crossroad

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the unique experience in the labor market and how the consumer is becoming more discerning as the economy slows.

Big Gains for Small Caps

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research discusses the sharp move higher in small cap stocks and potential path forward.

Weekly Market Performance — July 12, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of July 8, 2024, highlights the latest inflation data, start of earnings season, and rate cut expectations.

Market Performance is a Tale of Haves & Have-Nots

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores how stock market performance this year remains bifurcated between mega caps and the rest of the broader market.

The Stock Market is About Policy, Not Politics

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines the U.S. election landscape and what it could mean for investors in the coming months.

Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn

| Kristian Kerr

Navigate markets through year end with LPL Research’s 2024 Midyear Outlook, providing insights on stocks, bonds, the U.S. election, economy, and more.

Weekly Market Performance — July 5, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of June 1, 2024, highlights the short trading week, continued record highs, economic data, and elections.

Mind the Gap: What Does the Quits Rate Tell Us?

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research highlights the different labor market dynamics among the various sectors.

Venture Capital Market Searching for Fireworks

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research provides an update on the state of the venture capital industry.

Weekly Market Performance — June 28, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of June 24, 2024, highlights key economic data, inflation, and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar.

Sneak Peek into Second Half Seasonality for Stocks

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores how stocks historically perform in the second half of the year.

Evaluating the European Equity Market

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research examines several points about the European equity market and why to stay neutral.

May Fund Flows

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores May fund flows data and investor sentiment across asset classes.

Weekly Market Performance — June 21, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of June 17, 2024, highlights more new index highs, volatility in the bond markets, and rising oil prices.

How Low Can Volatility Go?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the technical and seasonal setup for implied equity market volatility and how stocks perform across various volatility backdrops.

The Texas Stock Exchange Aims to Buck Wall Street

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research discusses newly announced plans for the Texas Stock Exchange.

Weekly Market Performance — June 14, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of June 10, 2024, highlights more all-time market highs, cooling economic data, and a stronger dollar.

S&P 500 Records on Repeat

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the record-high rally in stocks and why a breakdown in Treasury yields could underpin a broader market rotation.

Markets React to Softer Inflation

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research walks through the dilemma the Federal Reserve has with sticky inflation.

NVIDIA: Dividing and Conquering or Time to Split?

| George Smith

LPL Research examines NVIDIA’s recent stock split, AI dominance, and the chipmaker’s rise to the second-most valuable U.S. public company.

Weekly Market Performance — June 7, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of June 3, 2024, highlights a sixth weekly gain for stocks, strong jobs data, and higher bond yields.

A Pullback Opportunity in Copper

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the supply and demand dynamics driving copper.

Muni Summer Set-up: Seasonal Tailwinds & Easing Interest Rates

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines the summer set-up for muni investors with several (potential) tailwinds on the horizon.

Quant’s New Frontier

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research discusses how machine learning has impacted the investment industry.

Weekly Market Performance — May 31, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of May 27, 2024, highlights tepid demand for Treasuries and the end of the S&P 500s five-week win streak.

Seasonal and Technical Setup for the S&P 500

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the seasonal and technical setup for the S&P 500.

Uninsured Motorists Are Driving Up Rates

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research explains the sticky components of inflation.

Weighing Pros and Cons of the Technology Sector

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines several pros and cons of investing in the technology sector.

Weekly Market Performance — May 24, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of May 20, 2024, highlights continued large cap tech strength, Fed Minutes, and rate cut expectations.

Sure, Cash Is Cool Again, but Bonds Are Better

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines the investment case for bonds over cash now that Fed rate hikes are likely over.

Main Street vs. Wall Street: Separate but Parallel

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research explores the impact of the economy on operating earnings growth.

Key Market Themes During Election Periods

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research looks at the top issues for investors to consider as the November presidential election approaches.

Weekly Market Performance — May 17, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of May 13, 2024, highlights new record highs, a decline in consumer inflation data, and tech strength.

April Fund Flows: Investors Flock to Bonds

| George Smith

LPL Research explores April fund flows data to uncover investor sentiment, sector preferences, and the ongoing shift from active mutual funds to active ETFs.

Some Good News and Some Not So Good News

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the changing landscape for inflation as consumer demand eases.

Commercial Real Estate — Is Now Time to Invest?

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research takes a deep dive into the commercial real estate sector, providing an overview, as well as analyzing recent performance and valuations.

Weekly Market Performance — May 10, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for the week of May 6, 2024, highlights another market winning streak, a utilities rally, and Treasury auctions.

Utilities Regain Power

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research discusses how utility stocks have become an artificial intelligence play and how data center demand could provide a tailwind for the sector.

Excess Savings Are Gone. Now What?

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the implications of depleted excess savings on consumer spending and the broader economy.

Sector Returns During a Fed Pause

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines market and sector returns during prior long Federal Reserve interest rate pauses.

Weekly Market Performance — May 3, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of April 29, 2024, highlights stocks ending in green, thanks to a dovish Fed and solid earnings reports.

China Climbs Out of a Bottom

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights the recent technical progress being made in China's stock market and why the recent rally could continue.

Macro Strategies Shine

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research updates investors on the performance and benefits of Macro-related alternative investment strategies in 2024.

Sell in May and Go Away?

| George Smith

LPL Research explores whether investors should follow the market adage “sell in May” and other clues seasonality can give us about markets in 2024.

Bears Come Out of Hibernation

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights recent changes in investor sentiment and what that could mean for stocks going forward.

Weekly Market Performance — April 26, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for April 22, 2024, highlights the S&P 500 bouncing back from previous losses, strong earnings, and GDP.

The Patient Pause

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the implications of current Federal Reserve policy on markets.

March and First Quarter Fund Flows

| George Smith

LPL Research explores March and Q1 fund flow data and investor sentiment across asset classes.

Strategic Asset Allocation: 3 to 5 Year Market Perspective

| George Smith

LPL Research discusses its updated Strategic Asset Allocation and Capital Market Assumptions.

Weekly Market Performance — April 19, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research's Weekly Market Performance for April 15, 2024, discusses the S&P 500's three-week decline, geopolitical tensions, and rising interest rates.

Model Portfolio Construction and Evaluation

| George Smith

LPL Research examines the advantages and pitfalls of different portfolio construction methods.

How Do Geopolitical Shocks Affect Stock Markets?

| George Smith

LPL Research details what the Middle East escalations could mean for stocks and how markets have reacted historically to geopolitical shocks.

Weekly Market Performance — April 12, 2024

| Adam Turnquist

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of April 8, 2024, highlights market movements and economic data that shaped this week's financial landscape.

Assessing the Prospect for a Pullback

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights the technical setup for stocks and bonds, and explores historical market drawdowns.

Bond Market Continues to Price Out Rate Cuts

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research highlights the number of rate cuts the bond market is pricing in after the recent CPI report.

Seven Reasons to Like the Energy Sector

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research examines prospects for the energy sector, listing seven reasons why investors may want to consider adding energy stocks to their portfolios.

Weekly Market Performance — April 5, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of April 1, 2024, highlights market movements and economic data that shaped this week's financial landscape.

Can Pre-Election Market Trends Survive Attention?

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research explores election year seasonality and whether the current pattern can survive all the attention. 

Recapping a Stellar First Quarter for Stocks

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research highlights what has contributed and detracted from performance across asset classes and sectors in Q1 2024.

Market Breadth and Market Returns

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores the importance of market breadth and its historical impact on market returns.

Can the Spring Melt Up Continue?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores seasonal trends for the S&P 500 as the index wraps up a strong month and first quarter.

Weekly Market Performance — March 28, 2024

| Adam Turnquist

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 25, 2024, highlights five straight months of gains for the S&P 500, a weaker yen, and lower yields.

BOJ Promises Being Nimble

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the implications of the latest Bank of Japan decision on the yen.

Event-Driven Investing — What to Watch in 2024

| Jina Yoon

LPL Research examines developments in the Event-Driven market and what to watch for in 2024.

Weekly Market Performance — March 22, 2024

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 18, 2024, highlights rate hikes and an accommodative Fed that powers the equity market to new record highs.

The Story Hasn’t Changed for the Fed

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the implications of the latest Federal Reserve decision regarding interest rate cuts.

Taking Some Large Growth Gains Off the Table

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research discusses several reasons for the STAAC’s latest asset allocation change, reducing its large cap growth overweight in favor of small caps.

Weekly Market Performance — March 15, 2024

| Kristian Kerr

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 11, 2024, highlights a new S&P 500 record close, earnings growth, and the energy sector outperforming.

Party Like It’s 1995

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research explores record highs for the S&P 500, market drawdowns, and why this year shares some similarities with 1995.

Good News: Labor Costs Are Falling

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research examines the improving dynamics between labor costs and services inflation.

Weekly Market Performance — March 8, 2024

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 8, 2024 highlights a mid-week record for the S&P 500 Index, higher gold prices, and Federal Reserve News.

Who Do Markets Want to Win the Election?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights election year seasonality and how the market is responding to probabilities for a Biden or Trump victory this fall.

Valuations Aren’t Great Timing Tools

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL examines the relationship between stock valuations and forward returns and finds valuations are much better predictors of long-term stock performance.

Are “Magnificent Seven” Valuations Warranted?

| Jeff Buchbinder

LPL Research compares valuations for the mega cap growth stocks to the market.

Weekly Market Performance — March 1, 2024

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of February 26, 2024, discusses another all-time high for the broad market and an up week for commodities as well.

Is Energy Due for a Rebound?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights how an improving technical setup for energy stocks and oil point to a potential rebound in relative strength for the energy sector.

Is It Déjà Vu All Over Again?

| Kristian Kerr

LPL Research explores the parallels between the current stock market environment and that of the Nifty Fifty in the early 1970s.

Core Fixed Income: Down but Not Out

| Lawrence Gillum

LPL Research examines potential returns for core bonds following the recent shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

Weekly Market Performance — February 23, 2024

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of February 19, 2024, highlights NVIDIA's strong earnings, a record high on the Nikkei, and a natural gas rally.

Is the Equal Weight S&P 500 About to Get Even?

| Adam Turnquist

LPL Research highlights the Equal Weight S&P 500 and how the technical setup suggests it could be ready to get even with its market-cap-weighted counterpart.

Keep Your Eye on Internationals

| Dr. Jeffrey Roach

LPL Research looks at the improving international inflation trajectory relative to the U.S.

Tactical Asset Allocation — Long Live the 60/40

| George Smith

LPL Research delves into positioning of its 60/40 MWP Tactical ETP model portfolio.

Weekly Market Performance — February 16, 2024

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of February 12, 2024, highlights last month's inflation, rate cuts, and Treasury yields.