Will Stocks Sell Off or Just Rotate?

Jeff Buchbinder:

<Silence> Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder, your host for this week with my friend and colleague Lawrence Gillum. Going to talk some stocks and some bonds. How are you today, Lawrence?

Lawrence Gillum:

I'm doing good, Jeff. How are you?

Jeff Buchbinder:

Doing just fine. Doing just fine. Good weekend. And you know, kind of interesting,

Lawrence Gillum:

Was it really a good weekend? I'm sitting here reveling in the, another victory of UNC over Duke, over the weekend.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Well, that's a fair point. I mean, I'm more of a Kansas basketball fan than a Duke fan, and they are collapsing just like Duke has. So, fair point. I am not real happy with my college basketball, so I'll just be thinking about the Chiefs Super Bowl for maybe a couple, couple months. But yeah, other than that, good weekend for sure here. The week, you know, last week's end to the market action was a little bit sloppy and I think, you know, we'll certainly talk about that here in a minute. But first these wonderful disclosures. It is Monday, March 11, 2024, as we are recording this. And we got a full agenda. So let's just get right to it. Not spend any more time talking about the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils. <Laugh>.

Jeff Buchbinder:

I know you're a Carolina fan Lawrence, so congrats to the Tar Heels. So here's what we got. Market recap. We had a late week tech sell off. Now the Mag Seven is kind of dispersing, right? So we're seeing these things move in different directions, but all in all, tech was down for the week, and certainly the biggest reason why the S&P was down over the five trading days, the jobs report really wasn't too much of the reason in our view, but we'll give you some key takeaways from that. Then we'll bring in our bond geek and Lawrence will talk about high yield maturity wall getting pushed out. This actually you know, with rising interest rates, the economy is really, or corporate America, more specifically, is highly dependent on being able to refinance.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So this is not just a bond geek issue. This is an issue that's mattered for equity investors, for economists. You know, these are important issues that aren't just limited to the bond market. Next, we'll highlight the Weekly Market Commentary, which is on gold, recent breakout to all-time highs. Certainly, we're getting a lot of questions from folks about gold and where we see it going from here. And then finally the week ahead where we have CPI and retail sales. So market recap first. I think a question a lot of people were asking as they were watching these huge moves in the big tech stocks late last week, is, is this a sign of a top? And does it mean that you know, the broad market will correct?

Jeff Buchbinder:

And we don't necessarily think so. We'll show you the performance table in a minute, but it's really more of a rotation than the ingredients for a correction, at least in our view in the near term. So, I'll explain a little bit more about that in a minute. So, here's the chart of the S&P. You see here, it's just basically been a straight lineup. We haven't even had a 2% pullback let alone the 5% that you typically need to qualify as a pullback. So, sure, we need a breather, we need a break. We're obviously going to get a dip at some point. Maybe what we saw late last week is the start of it, but, you know, the fundamentals to us still look pretty good here at LPL Research. So we're not we're not actively you know, talking about sidestepping and trying to avoid a correction or anything like that.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Still, fundamentals look pretty good. And the technicals look pretty good too. You have you know, pretty good breadth here. At the bottom you see the percentage of members with a 14-day RSI. So Relative Strength Index over 70 is overbought. We don't have a very high percentage that's over 70. In fact, we're not as overbought as we were just a few months ago. We're not as overbought as we were in late 2021, heading into early 2022. So, sure, a little overbought, but we've taken a little bit of the heat out by just sort of, you know, bouncing around here over the past few days. So in terms of intra-markets, we'll start with equities, and I'll go to you, Lawrence. You see here, the tech sector was down about 1.1% for the week.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So that's really the reason why you had the S&P down, only 0.2% down for the week. So a modest decline. But you see the Nasdaq a larger decline down 1.1%. So if you know where the Mag Seven is located in terms of the sectors, all those sectors were down. So tech, obviously, consumer discretionary down two and a half, that's where Amazon and Tesla are. And then communication services down 0.6%, that's where Alphabet and Meta are. So that's really the story. It's as simple as that. Now, you know, I didn't really make a commitment to, you know, whether tech can keep going higher or not. We're kind of wishy-washy on it. We're neutral with a slight positive bias on tech. It is expensive, but the earnings have been so good that we're just kind of hanging in there and, you know, going with the momentum.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Now, I mentioned broadening out. So if you look at the style indexes last week, you see the growth index was down one and a half, value index up 1.1. That's the kind of rotation that we might start to see, right? And so, if people don't want to pay up for the big techs, they might go into cyclical value. A lot of people have been talking about that. Or they might go to small caps, or they might go to international, right? So you know, we saw a little bit better performance out of small caps last week. We saw a very good performance out of cyclical value last week, particularly, you know, energy up nicely. You had good gains in materials, gains in industrials, and then you also saw really strong gains overseas. Look at the EAFE, up two and a half percent.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Part of that was the dollar weakening. But nonetheless, we're starting to see some broadening out. That's where people seem to be going. So this will be bumpy. It'll, we'll have, you know, fits and starts. So we're not ready to, you know, say this rotation is going to persist and start moving assets in that direction. However, we do think that's something you have to watch really, really closely. So for now, still like U.S. better than international and still a slight preference for large caps and for growth. So let's go to bonds here, Lawrence, I'll hand it over to you. You know, part of the reason that the market hung in there, I think last week is because bonds did so well.

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah, we did see yields fall last week. Frankly it was because there wasn't, excuse me, but there wasn't a lot of new information coming out of Jerome Powell last week. He kind of reiterated in front of Congress that rate cuts are likely going to happen this year. Markets were maybe starting to doubt some of that or at least repricing the amount of rate cuts expected this year based upon stronger than expected economic data. But Powell, he came in with his reassuring commentary about, you know, the Fed is likely going to cut rates this year. So we did see yields lower, and that did help frankly, sectors across the fixed income landscape. Ag, the aggregate bond index, which is the core bond index, up about 80 basis points or 0.8% last week, really the driver of that outperformance or that performance was the mortgage-backed security space.

Lawrence Gillum:

This is a space that we continue to, like, we think valuations are very attractive relative to lower rated corporate bonds. You know, these are AAA-rated government guaranteed securities, and they're out yielding these lower rated corporate bonds. We've been overweight that sector in our discretionary asset allocation models. And it's good to see them rally on the back of that renewed enthusiasm for rate cuts that that took place last week. Moving on to the plus sectors, high yield bonds continue to perform well. We're going to talk about the positive developments in terms of issuance trends in the high yield bond market. High yield bonds, you could argue, are pretty expensive. So we are neutral on that space. But given the improving fundamental backdrop and the improved refinancing risk, you know, there's an argument that we're likely going to see spreads well contained and probably in a trading range over the course of the next couple quarters.

Lawrence Gillum:

So, but the valuations are still a little concerning for us in our model portfolios. The area that we have invested in, or that we've taken a kind of an out of benchmark allocation to is preferreds. Yesterday marked the one year anniversary of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. And when that took place, we got that proverbial baby with the bathwater moment where a lot of these bank preferreds sold off pretty dramatically. And we've been invested in that space not quite a year, but close to it. So we've enjoyed some pretty decent returns out of that sector. And valuations continue to look attractive to us in that area. So mostly high quality up in quality approach for our fixed income allocations, but that is the one area that we are taking a little bit of risk in the fixed income book on the preferred side. And again, it's good to see that the that those securities are continued to perform well.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, that was a little bit of a gutsy call back then, but it certainly worked out and I think you have to, you know, be pleased with how well the banking sector has held up, particularly regional banks with the commercial real estate exposure and the exposure to just rising interest rates, you know, over the past couple years.

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah, sure. But, and today I know we're going to talk about the calendar in a second, but today is the day that that Fed facility expires, that Bank Term Funding Program, BTFP, there's so many facilities out there. Today's the day that that expires, and the Fed is letting it expire because by and large, the financial system looks a lot better now than it did a year ago. So, the Fed is comfortable letting that program expire.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I didn't know that. That's interesting. So, the you know, the banking sector looks like it's in decent shape. But, you know, we still have some heavy commercial real estate exposure and some of the regional banks that we have to watch. But you know, overall, it's a pretty healthy banking environment, a pretty healthy credit environment, good for the economy and good for markets. So thanks for that, Lawrence. Let's quickly hit on the jobs report. I'll just show you these charts. I think it's helpful to see the visual of the trend, right? And so this is just payrolls by month, and then the you know, the unemployment on the orange line unemployment rate. So, you know, first it's obvious that you see in terms of the blue line, just payroll numbers.

Jeff Buchbinder:

You know, we've gone from, you know, 500, 600,000 jobs a month down to, you know, the two to 300 range. Actually, that's even a little bit up. We had a couple of readings that were a little lower than that. So we are trending down, but certainly job growth is stabilized. The Fed is obviously watching this closely, and you know, Lawrence, you just mentioned it, they're preparing to cut probably in June, could be sooner. President Biden thinks the rate cut's coming sooner, <laugh>, which I thought, or soon, which I thought was very interesting. I think that was on might have been on Saturday when he made that comment. But at any rate Powell's told us pretty much directly, that they're getting close to a rate cut. So this the job market is healthy, but it's not too strong.

Jeff Buchbinder:

That would prevent the Fed from, from cutting rates. Also, you know, you might look at that 2 75 and say it's hot. That was the, you know, the job number that we got on Friday for February. It was about 75,000 above expectations, but the downward revisions actually turned it into a soft report because we had much more than 75,000 jobs taken out of previous months, right? Just 124,000 out of January alone. So, you know, maybe it's Goldilocks, maybe it was a little softer than you'd like to see, but certainly doesn't change what the Fed's doing. And then here's average hourly earnings, right? The wage number, it's down almost to four, which is, you know, not where you want to be, probably want to be in the threes, but if productivity is strong, you can still have a 4% wage number and, you know, grow GDP at 2%, not, you know, not have an inflation problem, right?

Jeff Buchbinder:

The problem is when wages, when you don't have productivity and you have to keep hiring more workers and wages grow that gets you into a little bit of a tricky spot, right? So we're okay with 4% wage growth, like to get it a little bit lower, but the Fed, again, is seeing this, they're seeing all the other wage metrics that they look at, and there are many of them. And it is telling them that they can cut. So is June still your expectation, Lawrence? Are we still looking at, you know, three or four cuts this year, or have your views changed on that?

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah, so our base case is likely four rate cuts. It wouldn't surprise us if we get three but we do think that the trajectory is lower. There's been some discussion about potentially having rate hikes come back into the picture, but that was all but squashed over the past week or so by Fed officials saying that if inflationary pressures continue to run hotter than expected, they'll just stay at these levels for longer. So we think the next move is lower, lower yields or lower rates. But it's been repriced a couple times, but the current pricing has about a 90% probability that June is the month that the Fed goes. And that's in line with kind of our expectations as well. A couple quick comments though, about what the two charts that you just showed.

Lawrence Gillum:

What was interesting is that watching the bond market, being the bond geek that I am, I watched the bond market on like a tick-by-tick basis in some of these data releases. And we initially saw yields spike higher after that 275,000-job number because it was above expectations. But then when you start to look under the hood, you realize those revisions were a lot more market moving than the headline number was. So, it was pretty interesting to watch the erratic behavior out of the bond market on Friday. And of course, the wage pressures that you're showing here is another reason why we did see yields ultimately end up lower on the day despite that high headline number is because it does look like those wage pressures are moderating a little bit.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Just as the economists expected. So pretty Goldilocks on the wage number and on the job ads. So good to see still kind of on track where we thought we'd be. So let's we'll keep rolling with the bond theme, because that's basically where we were on the jobs report and talk about high yield. So, you mentioned Lawrence, when we were putting this together, that the maturity wall is pushed out. What's doing that and what does it mean?

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah, so the big thing really in the fixed income markets this year has been the amount of supply, the amount of new bonds that are coming to market, that are at really record levels for a lot of these markets. But what's been interesting is there's been record demand as well for these bonds. Just another rule that shows that you know, supply tends to follow demand. And with demand picking up this year with the expectation of lower yields later on in the year and into the next couple years there's a lot of institutional investors out there that are just buying up everything that's coming to market. And companies are seeing that and saying, all right, we're going to issue a lot more debt because there's a lot more demand. So we are seeing record levels of debt come to the market.

Lawrence Gillum:

What we're showing here is the investment grade universe, which is blue, the high yield bond index, which is orange. Remember, we're not even at the midpoint of March yet, but we're already almost at levels that would feel like a full year for, you know, the high yield market. And then we're getting close to, you know, 500 billion of new issuance for the investment grade universe, which a good year is around 1.4 trillion. So there's been a lot of bonds come to market, and markets haven't moved. There's been so much demand that a lot of these issues are what's called oversubscribed, meaning that there's a $100 million bond issuance coming to market. There's $500 million waiting to invest in that deal. So that's really been the big takeaway this year is that there's just a ton of demand taking down this record amount of supply.

Lawrence Gillum:

And the so what, if we go to the next slide is that it's allowed a lot of these high yield companies to refinance their existing debt, push out that refinancing risk, and really push out the I guess kick the can down the road a couple years before they have to start paying back this debt. Coming into this year, we had a pretty big concern about refinancing risks, particularly for the lower rated companies, these triple-C rated companies. But given the strong demand and the very open primary market, these companies were able to refinance their debt very little, give up or very little you know concern about getting that paper refinanced. And you know, it's really worked out well for a lot of these companies. To your point this improves the kind of the balance sheet for a lot of companies. So they're able to hire and they're able to continue to grow. And, you know, certainly this is good news for the economy, good news for corporate America, and good news for employees as well because it does allow companies to continue to hire now that they've got their financing issues in order.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, that's excellent. And I would say this connects to small caps. We've been a little bit cautious on small caps, but they're starting to perk up a little bit and catch our eye. You know, small caps tend to need to go to banks to refi more than the larger companies. If you have a healthy, relatively healthy high yield market that could help smaller companies and maybe make, create some market interest down the market cap chain, I would think.

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah. So high yield companies do tend to be the smaller cap companies out there. You think about the investment grade corporate universe, it's your Apples, your GMs, your Walmart's, all that kind stuff. This, the high-yield universe is primarily a single product company or really smaller cap companies. So their ability to kind of, again, kick the can down the road into this 2028, 2029 period when they have to start worrying about debt again is a big weight off of a lot of their shoulders. So it should help some of these smaller cap companies do well on a go forward basis.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I know, you know, we're still not being aggressive in terms of how we position fixed income portfolios, but it's comforting to know that high yields in a bit better shape. And, you know, if folks have a really high-quality fixed income portfolio, maybe a little bit of high yield would be okay, at least in the near term. While corporate America's in such good shape, we know we got a great earnings season. The economy looks like it's going to continue to grow for the next several quarters. You know, maybe keep those positions small, but you may argue with me, Lawrence, but I don't think a small position in high yield, you know, as long as the whole bond portfolio is conservatively positioned, is necessarily a terrible idea.

Lawrence Gillum:

No, I would be cautious though, in terms of valuations, again, the additional compensation for owning high yield debt isn't great. But in the meantime, you're getting 6, 7% type yield where you can clip the coupon. And to your point, as long as the economy doesn't fall into a recession, which it's, I mean, the economic data continues to outperform. So as long as the economy continues to perform well, growth may slow, but that's still going to be a pretty conducive environment for corporate credit.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, maybe the higher quality end of high yield makes sense. Maybe just as a trade. I know this, you know, our house view is still that you know, to be up in quality, high quality corporates as opposed to high yield. So thanks for that, Lawrence. Let's, let's move on to gold. This was the topic of the Weekly Market Commentary this week written by Adam Turnquist, frequent guest of Market Signals. So I'm going to do my best to walk through these charts that Adam put in here to make the case that gold actually looks interesting. So, you know, for folks who think that this market has come too far, too fast, and again, you know, LPL Research is neutral equities, and we're staying neutral equities for now. It might make sense to take a little bit off here and that, you know, those equities, if you do think you want to take a little bit of risk off, those equities have to go somewhere.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So where do they go? Well, like I said, maybe, you know, cyclical values, small caps, international, you know, those are equities. Well, what about considering some alternative investments, maybe commodities? And within those areas, gold actually looks really interesting to us. It just broke out to a new all-time high. You can see that on this chart. You know, it took a while to break through 2,000, but we did that and now up you know, making a run at 2,200. Gold likes a weak dollar. We're certainly starting to see that. Gold likes lower rates because, and here's where I can bring you in, Lawrence, the, you know, gold doesn't offer any yield. So when yields are high, it's a competitive threat to gold as an investment, right? Because there's a higher opportunity cost of owning gold and not getting that yield.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So gold likes falling rates, actually specifically falling real rates, which is inflation adjusted rates. So we are seeing rates come down, and I think that's part of the story for why gold is making this run. But we're also seeing a weaker dollar. It's very hard to predict where the dollar's going to go. I think it's pretty fair to assume it's going to be weak versus the yen in the near term. But versus the euro, that's a hard call to make because the Fed and the ECB are both racing to cut rates, might do it at the same time, who knows, probably coming in June, maybe a little sooner. That's not really a big currency swing factor. So, you know, hard to call. So it's a wild card we'll say. But rates in the dollar are the big drivers I think right now. Lawrence, thoughts on the impact of rates and gold?

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah, I mean, we talked about it earlier. We have some yields fall from levels, pull it back in last September, October. You know, and that kind of is correlated with a decent run in gold as well. To your point about real yields, these TIPS yields these inflation adjusted yields. We are really positive on TIPS back in September with real yields at the highest levels they've been in quite some time. But to your point, they have fallen back into, call it more still on the elevated side over the past decade, but not nearly as attractive as they were a couple months ago. So there is that trade off and you could really make the argument that gold is a pretty decent option outside of just the traditional stocks and bonds given valuations for both of those markets.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, and inflation is the one piece that you have to watch. As long as inflation kind of stays about where it is or maybe only comes down gradually, that might not be a headwind to gold. You know, if inflation goes up, real rates go down and, you know, gold likes real rates going down, inflation could cause them to, you know, stay where they are or go higher. So we have to watch the inflation piece. Gold has several different drivers. And then, you know, I'll also add on the bottom of this chart, you have the Relative Strength Index, right? Over 70 is overbought. We talked about how the S&P is not there anymore.

Jeff Buchbinder:

But look at gold, it's blown through that 70 mark, and you know, is very overbought. So could make sense to wait for a pullback there for exposure. But this could be, you know, kind of a little bit of a hedge we'll say. Something that maybe won't be correlated to the equity markets. Certainly there are a lot of interesting ideas within the alternative investments universe that similarly are not as correlated to equity prices. So you can look, you know, consider some of those as well. But gold really a nice chart, and even though it's a little ahead of itself, maybe we think it can go higher from here. One of the other reasons we think it can go higher is because central banks are buying. So this chart that Adam put together shows net purchases of gold by central banks globally, major central banks and you got this big uptick in 2022 and 2023.

Jeff Buchbinder:

It's certainly related to sanctions on Russia, starting with the invasion of Ukraine. And just the tough geopolitical environment beyond that has caused central banks to diversify. So it's not just diversifying other currencies, it's diversifying into commodities and other assets. So there's a little bit of Bitcoin floating around on some central bank balance sheets as well. So this diversification by central banks is a tailwind for gold, certainly. And then you know, ETFs for gold aren't new, but you know, we're starting to see, or I guess as we've seen this gold rally, we've actually started to see ETF holdings of the gold commodity come down. So maybe there's an opportunity to reverse that and see some you know, some flows into the ETFs. So that's high level gold. For more details you can check out our Weekly Market Commentary on lpl.com.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So let's preview the week, Lawrence. And then wrap. I mean, I think it's obvious that CPI is the most important data point of the week, and you get the PPI with it. So CPI Tuesday, so that'll be when we release this podcast. So folks listening will already know that CPI number presumably. The PPI comes on Thursday, along with retail sales. So retail sales matter, but we're just in this environment where inflation seems to matter more than retail sales, frankly, which is only a small part of overall consumer spending. So it matters, but it's secondary. So based on what I've read, Lawrence, on the CPI situation, it looks like we might get a little bit below this consensus number. So, you know, I'm not an economist that's, you know, Jeff Roach would've a more educated opinion on maybe where the CPI comes in. But based on what I've seen, I think we've got maybe a tiny bit of a downside bias. You know, that might be with rounding, up 0.4% month over month rather than up 0.3 the prior month. But I think we're going to end up kind of being in line or maybe just a fraction below based on what I've seen. Any thoughts there?

Lawrence Gillum:

Yeah. And then of course, yeah, it is right to focus on the month over month numbers. Those are the most important really because of the improvements or the improvement inflation over the past year. So some of those older readings are still embedded in those year over year figures. So month over month is important. I would say watch core services, ex housing, everyone knows the housing issues with CPI and the big weight that there is in that statistic. But core services ex housing was an unexpected surprise higher last month. So if there is some moderation in that category or those categories, I think you could see a pretty big rally out of the fixed income markets, which would likely imply a pretty big rally out of the equity markets as well. No guarantees, of course. But that was kind of the stubborn sticky inflation people were talking about last month. So we'll have to see how that plays out for February.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, the core year over year is probably going to get the most attention. 3.7% expected down 0.2% from the prior months year over year reading. So, it's going to continue if it hits that number, it's going to continue the trajectory moving in the right direction. And again, pointing to Fed rate cuts before too long here. I'm just looking at the bond market now, you know, we are ticking up a basis point or two this morning on or this early this afternoon 4.09 on the 10-year yield. And you know, still kind of lower end of the very recent range, but maybe there's a little bit of anxiety in that, you know, we're a day away from the CPI and you might just see people kind of, I don't know, adjusting positions ahead of this key number tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern. I guess you know, on the retail sales number, which is, you know, probably the second most important economic data point, it's really a lot of autos noise.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So you know, we had the big drop last month or two months ago really. Because this data comes out with a lag. We had the big drop and now economists expect that number to bounce back. So after a 0.8% decline in January, economists are expecting 8.8% increase overall for February. But, you know, if you take out the autos and gasoline, frankly, you're only up 0.2 according to economists. Now, this is just a forecast. We could be off. This number has, you know, more variation to it than the CPI numbers, which are being so closely watched. So even without the autos and gas, economists are saying that we're going to bounce back from that hangover that we had in January after the holidays and see a pickup in consumer spending in February. You certainly had a strong job market to support it in recent months. And, you know, we don't talk a lot about the wealth effect, but you have people making money in the stock market, and that certainly has you know, you'd have to think certainly has some impact on consumer spending. So, any other comments Lawrence on the week ahead, anything else here you think might get some attention or anything to add to retail sales?

Lawrence Gillum:

Just again, that Fed facility that's closing today, just real quickly that if there is concern amongst banks, they have the ability to borrow for one year from now. So despite the fact that that facility is closing today, any sort of issues probably won't take place until one year from today. Because again, if they are able to, these banks are able to borrow today and not have to pay that money back for a year. So I know, I've gotten questions about should people be concerned about this facility closing and I would say no. Because again, they can borrow, keep that loan in place for a year until they have to pay that back. So if there are some regional banks or other banking institutions out there that are perhaps teetering, they can get a loan and not have to worry about paying that back for another year. So the fact that it's closing is not a big or should not be a big market moving event. The other thing is, no Feds speak this week, which is a welcome change from prior weeks. We tend to get too much Fed speak, in my view, but we're in that blackout period until the Fed meets next week. So that should help keep some volatility muted in some of these markets.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Well, so with all that time, we're going to save Lawrence from Fed speak we can follow the NFL free agency period, which is starting now. I know your Tampa Bay Bucs made some news over the weekend and we can go out and see the movies that won all the awards last night that we haven't seen yet. I just started Oppenheimer, but I haven't finished it yet. So got some catching up to do with movies, so we'll, I like saving a little bit of time, not having to pay so much attention to the Fed speak.

Lawrence Gillum:

Same here, for sure.

Jeff Buchbinder:

<Laugh> Excellent. Actually, you know what? I don't love the Fed speak, even if it's not a big week for seeing movies and watching free agents sign with football teams. So let's go ahead and wrap up there. Thanks Lawrence for joining. Thanks for the insights on the bond market, which as you know, I do not know much about. Just in the interest of being civil, be nice to those Duke fans down in the Carolinas where you are because you never know, it could go the other way next year. We'll see. So be nice <laugh>. Thanks everybody for listening as always to LPL Market Signals. We'll be back with you next week. Thanks so much. Take care everybody.