Translating Fed-Speak Ahead of a Big Week for Central Banks

Jeff Buchbinder:

Hello everybody and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals podcast. Jeff Buchbinder here, your host for this week, with my friend and colleague, Quincy Krosby. Quincy, thanks for joining today. I am really looking forward to this podcast because you are going to talk Fed and the Fed is getting really interesting right now. You know, it was interesting the last few months because we priced out cuts. Yep. But we're still at three, so, and the Fed's told us three, but you're actually going to talk a little bit about the possibility that we get less than three. So interested in hearing your thoughts on that when we get there. We'll also talk earnings. So, it is Monday, March 4, 2024, as we're recording this. And then you'll be listening on the fifth. Here's our agenda for today. I already gave you a little bit of it.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We're going to start with a market recap. Not only have we had the series of new highs for the S&P 500, we got one for the NASDAQ as well. Oh, and by the way, the Nikkei as well. So we'll talk about that. And another positive week. After the Fed, we'll do an earnings recap. Our earnings season was really, really good relative to expectations, but what I think made it a little bit better, well, there are a couple things. One, you know, the Super Six, as we call them, the Mag Seven minus Tesla results were really good. But also we started off so slow that to come back strong was really, really good to see, kind of a pleasant surprise. And then we'll preview the week ahead and boy is, you know, it's jobs report week, but there's a lot more central banks all over the world.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So Quincy, I'm really glad you're, you're on with me this week. So let's start with the recap. You know, the first thing you'll notice here on the upper left-hand side upper left-hand corner is the S&P was up 1% for the week, and we're now up eight year to date. So just, you know, a really strong start to the year. The tech sector led, that is no change because that's really been the case all year. Semis continue to be strong. Of course, NVIDIA continues to be strong and most of the rest of the Super Six. So we got a big a big week for tech. We also got some risk on with small caps with the Russell 2000 doing very well last week up 3%. And that ended up being a growth week,

Jeff Buchbinder:

of course, over value. Internationally, the international market's still having a hard time keeping up in dollar terms, right? The EAFE, the EM index, behind in dollar terms. But the Japan market in yen is actually doing even better than the U.S. market quite a bit, in fact. You see year to date, up 20 for the Nikkei and up over 2% last week. Also getting a little bit of a bounce in China. I know Quincy you'll weigh in on that. We got the bond market here up nicely. Actually that's where I'll bring you in Quincy. The you know, bond yields fell late in the week. You know, part of it I think was a relief rally because the PCE deflator was in line, right? The Fed's preferred inflation measure. But I think part of it was also Waller's comments, right? About, you know, where on the yield curve, he Fed should be focused. Is that a fair assessment? What was going on in the bond market last week?

Quincy Krosby:

Well, I think, I definitely think the PCE came in within expectations, which was very good. And Waller has been, how do I say, he's been sort of the pragmatic hawk. He was appointed by President Trump. Just the rumors. I just want to mention this, rumors that if President Trump goes back to the White House and he may choose Waller to be the replace when Jerome Powell retires, or his tenure is over. Waller also, and I want to make this clear, Waller also had two views that were very controversial and actually seemingly very prescient. And one of those views, because he talked about this, is that the Fed did not, does not have to kill the labor market in order to achieve the goal of moving closer and closer to 2% because we know that that is the tried-and-true method, kill the labor market,

Quincy Krosby:

consumers are not going to be spending. His view was, and this is where he had been criticized early on, his view was, you know what, we don't necessarily have to do that. How about a situation in which there aren't as many job openings? What about if we go in that direction and try to create an environment in which the labor market itself is still okay and resilient, but where folks are not going to suddenly, you know, jump to another job if there aren't that many jobs available? Because that he thought was more important than anything else. Because obviously the majority of people who jump ship jump for more money. And the more money that people have, guess what? They spend it. And more than that, that means that companies, in order to keep, people have to raise wages. And why is that important? Because if they raise wages, the company, the view is the company is going to have to get that money back and perhaps raise prices.

Quincy Krosby:

And that there is your inflation. And he was criticized. But the fact is, that has become actually more in line with Fed thinking, including Jerome Powell. That was one thing. And then the other thing that he said many times is that he believed that the lag effect from rate hikes or rate cuts does not take any more 9, 10, 12 months as it was in the textbooks many years ago. His view is that in fact, the market responds much more quickly. And that gets to the core of what we're talking about. That because the Fed meets so often that it's so transparent, like people would argue even too transparent. But nonetheless, the information gets out there without the Fed actually having to do anything. And therefore the market actually moves much more quickly. His view is that that has changed as we have the media, is business media.

Quincy Krosby:

And again, as the Fed is live every single meeting. By the way, that view is also shared, to some degree, by Loretta Mester, also on the hawkish side of the equation from the Cleveland Fed. So it's interesting. He's getting a lot more what shall I say, kudos for his thinking. And the Wall Street Journal did a write up about him just the other day. So when he talks about the market, the bond market reacts to what he has to say. And just getting now over to the idea of rate cuts. Waller is the one, and this is what I find fascinating. Christopher Waller is the one who got the market talking about rate cuts, in essence, telling the market that the market with all of these rate cuts, this is what you're going to do. It may in March, you're going to continue all throughout the year.

Quincy Krosby:

But he came out and said before any other Fed official, and especially because he's on the hawkish side, he said, yeah, I could see rate cuts. I don't know if you remember that. The market responded with, oh my gosh, if Christopher Waller is saying this, it must be so, and this is what's going to happen. So he's extremely influential and is because he comes from the hawkish side, but he's a pragmatist and therefore the bond market, the yields follow what he says, and the market tends to move accordingly. Obviously, the equity market as well.

Jeff Buchbinder:

It's like riding the hot hand. He seems to be mm-Hmm. the hot hand over there and, and he's, you know, gotten some yes, certainly some other folks on his side. Yeah. This is actually the week when JOLTS gets reported, the job openings and labor turnover report. Yeah. So that will get more attention. I can't remember how high that peaked, but I think it's down probably close to 20% now off its peak. So we are getting fewer job openings. And you're right, that well.

Quincy Krosby:

And, and let's get that into the economy because now something, if you notice consumer sentiment has been coming down, right? And it had been shooting up and now it's pulling back. And what are the consumers saying in these surveys? I'm worried about the job market. I'm worried about the job market, and I'm worried if I could get another job. Why is that so important? Because we know historically, statistically, when consumers are worried about that, they tend to pull back in their spending. And that is exactly what the Fed wants.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. I mean, we're not expecting any meaningful deterioration in the job market, you know? Right. I mean, it's jobs report week too <laugh> is just, you know we're getting into our week ahead preview and you know, kind of foreshadowing some of this stuff. But not only is it a big week for economic data in terms of the jobs report, but it's also you know, ECB meeting and we're going to hear from the BOJ as well, Ueda is speaking. So, I went ahead and moved to the Fed speak slide here because I just wanted to show that there is now a higher probability that we don't get a cut until July, right? So this is, you know, the left axis here on this chart. The vertical axis is the number of hikes or cuts 25 basis points at a time.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So, the June meeting doesn't quite get you to a full cut. I think the odds are something around 65, 70% that we get a cut in June. And then to get to a fully priced in cut, you have to go actually to July. So this way of thinking, right, that maybe we'll have a soft landing and maybe we don't need so many cuts is permeating right? And then you also have a better economy than we thought we were going to have a few months ago. Better economy than most people thought a few months ago. And you know, soft landing, becoming the consensus, if you have stronger economic growth, you don't need as many cuts. So there's that piece. And then, as we know, we talked about this last week, we got a little bit of a hot CPI number, then that was followed by a little bit higher expectations for the PCE, then that number was in line with those higher expectations.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Bottom line, we had stubbornly high inflation or an interruption of the steady decline in inflation. And I mean, the trajectory is still down, but it's just sort of slowed its pace of decline. And that certainly caused the market to maybe question whether we're going to get a cut as soon as May or June. Yeah. So you know, bottom line, the sort of market timeline for cuts has been pushed out a little bit, and it may get pushed out further, but it's being pushed out for a good reason, right? It's being pushed out because the economy's doing better. I mean, the little uptick in inflation in January is not good news, but at least it's really, you know, being accompanied by a good economy. So, good discussion there, Quincy, let's go back to the charts.

Jeff Buchbinder:

I got the S&P and the NASDAQ in here. So the S&P, it's just a straight line up. It's overbought. You don't have to be a technician to know that we are on a technical basis, we are overbought, and we probably need a break. You know, up four straight months, nothing even as much as a 2% dip in the last four months. So you know, a breather would be totally expected. That I'm sure makes sense to all of you. But I want to just give you a couple of stats here that are really powerful. First of all, the S&P is up 16 of 18 weeks. It hasn't done that since 1971. That in and of itself is pretty cool, really. Now, here's another one.

Jeff Buchbinder:

This is even more interesting. Well, it's also the, it's the 13th best start of the year for the S&P since 1950. 13th best start to the year since 1950. If you get an up January and February, on average, you're up 12% the rest of the year. And not only, so that's March through December, not only that, you've been up 26 of 28 times. That is over 90%. That is a very high batting average. So that certainly powerful statistic. We calculated that one. Adam Turnquist. Bespoke had another take on this. If you have a four-month win streak where you're up 20, which we just did on average over the next six months, you're up 9%. Okay? And then we're up 21 out of 21 times since 1950, 21 for 21. That's really remarkable. Some people talk about breadth thrusts. This has just been a massive rally, even though, you know, techs led, there've been a lot of stocks participating, of course, in this rally off of the October lows.

Jeff Buchbinder:

It's been a very strong rally. It's been a broad rally, and you end up with a positive signal for future returns. That is a powerful stat. Even if you just have any four month win streak, though the stats are still really good. You're up 84% of the time the next six and 12 months. So really strong rally. Need a break, but good chance we're higher by the end of the year, higher than we are now. Here's the NASDAQ High. This is the first high for the NASDAQ since November of 2021. <Laugh>, it's been a long wait. I looked at the stats for how the NASDAQ behaves after a long wait and a new high. And they're not as great. They're kind of average returns going forward. They're not as strong as what we saw for the S&P when it had its first record high in a long time.

Jeff Buchbinder:

But nonetheless, very strong chart, strong momentum. And frankly, even though stocks might be a little bit overvalued here, the momentum is so strong that LPL Research is maintaining its neutral equity stance in our recommended asset allocation. So we're not recommending folks trim equities into strength, at least not at this point. If we go much higher, we might think about that <laugh>. But for now, the momentum and the improvement in economic conditions and earnings, which we'll get to in a minute, also support higher valuations. So sticking with our neutral here despite the frankly remarkable strength. So let's go back to the Fed. So Quincy, I thought, you know, we were talking a little bit before and I thought that the Fed is really interesting now because you know, there's the possibility of no cuts this year, right?

Jeff Buchbinder:

I mean, you've made the case and others have, that if they get too close to the election they might not want to interfere and they might wait till after. And that really doesn't leave too many more meetings between, let's say they <laugh>, let's say they cut or thinking about cutting in July and they get cold feet, right? Maybe because the job market's too strong, maybe because some of these risk assets are doing too well, right? Cryptocurrencies, <laugh>, right? Maybe because financial conditions, you know, you look at these various financial conditions and indexes, and they're really strong, right? Fed might get worried that that's going to create inflation. So, in your pretty strong

Quincy Krosby:

Look at money supply

Jeff Buchbinder:

And money supply, absolutely. So let, I mean, it's hard to put a probability on that. What do you think the odds are that we get zero or one cuts this year or make the case that we might not our base case, but make the case that that could actually happen?

Quincy Krosby:

Well, the case for that we don't get any rates is the following. One is the economy, as you say, remains strong. But with that inflation also has to be too sticky for the Fed. That's the key. And the case that's being made, those who were suggesting no rate cuts this year, have the economy solid resilience, but that inflation is stickier than the market perceives at this point. But that the Fed will not cut rates with inflation sort of refusing to unwind and start coming down at a faster clip. And that the political scenario also hits. And they say, no, no, no, we don't want to go in there. We don't want to do that. But adding it all together, the view is the economy simply doesn't need it.

Quincy Krosby:

Because the fear is that if they do cut rates in a backdrop as healthy as the economy is now and inflation again, still too sticky, that financial conditions will ease even more and create even more inflation. And that is the concern. Now, mind you the Atlanta Fed Now GDP forecast that came out on Friday, has the GDP for this quarter coming down a bit below 3%, which again, is a little bit cooler and, you know, there's more data to be assimilated. But it is a very interesting idea. And I want to also point out that there are many who see that the Fed's dovish pivot on November 1st, something that helped underpin the market, along with the Treasury Department's announcement about they didn't need as much funding as the market thought. That that created very attractive financial conditions, meaning easier financial conditions.

Quincy Krosby:

That in many ways the Fed made a mistake in pivoting with the language that was used, and that almost served as a rate cut in and of itself. So there you go. I mean, it is a very interesting idea that is being put forth, not by people, you know, economists who are known for just wanting to get headlines and just be part of, but very thoughtful economists, ones with very strong records. However, and I want to just, I don't want to refute that, but I also want to point out that you have, we mentioned Waller, I mentioned Loretta Mester. They are on the hawkish divide of the FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee. They seem to be committed, at least at this point, in terms of seeing the possibility for rate cuts in the middle of the year, which would bring us to summer.

Quincy Krosby:

That's why you have July. And Raphael Bostic, who is on the dovish side actually specifically said, I could see rate cuts in the summertime, you don't often, Jeff, have the two sides of the FOMC in unison. But what you have now coming out and let me put it this way. Some of these economists have very strong personalities and they have gone rogue before, but they seem to be on the same page. And I think that as long, and this, I think has been underpinning the market, they, no one has said from the Fed, we don't see any rate cuts this year. Try to imagine if anyone came out and said that. The market, I think would have a major temper tantrum because after all, that was what underpinned the surge. The Fed with the dovish pivot, the Treasury saying, hmm, no, we don't think we need to have that much, we don't need that much funding and rate cuts throughout the year.

Quincy Krosby:

So as you said, you are looking at a very small window for rate cuts. And look, let me put it this way. We could have rate cuts under another scenario, that the economy suddenly does an about face and starts weakening dramatically. That's one. Or something breaks and market needs liquidity, the Fed comes right in. But those don't look probable at this point. And so there you are. It's fascinating. Now this week, Wednesday and Thursday is Fed. You want to talk about Fed speak? Jerome Powell up on Capitol Hill speaking for his half year talk to the Congress, Senate.

Jeff Buchbinder:

How about Humphrey-Hawkins or used to be.

Quincy Krosby:

Yes. Humphrey-Hawkins, that's what it used to be called. But think about the questions that they're going to, he's going to get from the House of Representatives because the Democrats are demanding rate cuts now. They want it now, and he's going to have to navigate all of these. And the market is determined to glean any, any sign that he is pivoting in perhaps another direction or hedging here or there. The market is going to be, especially now, focused on the way he answers the questions from the Senate and the House of Representatives. It's going to be a fascinating two days. And then as you said, the payroll report, which is really important for the market. You know, Jeff, I actually think the market is more data dependent than the Fed. Why? Because they have a lot riding on it in terms of where they are positioned. So they are extremely data dependent. So is the Fed, but the market even more so.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yep, absolutely. We jumped ahead to the week ahead, so you can see the jobs numbers. 200,000 is consensus. That's way down from the blowout we got in January. So don't expect another blowout. I think there was some seasonal adjustment weirdness maybe playing a role in that big number for January, but that's not really where the trend is or should be. So, expect a slowdown but consensus doesn't see an increase in the unemployment rate, right. 3.7%. And then the consensus expects a pretty calm, average hourly earnings number, right? Yes. That's important for the Fed. Up 0.2% month over month, which is also down from the blowout in January. So yeah, if we hit consensus, the market should be fine with that. But certainly you know, given the, you know, some of the surprisingly strong data we've seen recently, I guess it's possible that we get a strong number. But I think I'd probably take the under. There've been a lot of overs hitting <laugh> on that jobs number. But I mean, something over 200 feels a little hot to me. What do you think, Quincy?

Quincy Krosby:

I agree with you. Yeah. Yeah.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Well, the other key number here, I think well, we mentioned the JOLTS report already, the job openings and turnover report, I actually, now that I look at the number 88.50, I don't think we, I don't think we're quite down 20% from peak, but we're certainly down more than 10% from the peak. So that is in the right direction. And then the ISM services number probably matters more than it seems to because it doesn't get as much press. But you know, we're in a services led economy. That prices paid number because that's where the inflation problem is right now.

Quincy Krosby:

Yes, exactly.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Prices paid is going to be yes, potentially a market mover. Yes. So those are the key data points. But we also get an ECB meeting. So have your thoughts on the ECB changed at all, Quincy, or do you still think, you know, they'll probably cut generally around the time that maybe the Fed does?

Quincy Krosby:

I think it depends. You know, the last read on inflation I thought was a little bit too hot for them. But in Germany, the sentiment is very negative. But there too, she's got to be completely data dependent and she's got to, they've got, all of them have got to see that inflation is coming down at a faster clip. There's been much written that, oh, they don't want to move until the Fed moves. She will move when she thinks it's correct for the Eurozone. And I don't think she wants the deterioration to continue the way it has been unfolding, but she has to have inflation down to make the case that they can cut perhaps before the Fed.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, it's based on our previous conversation, it kind of goes without saying that maybe the odds that the ECB goes first have increased, right? Because the odds that the Fed goes in May have decreased or June.

Quincy Krosby:

Exactly.

Jeff Buchbinder:

That makes sense. And then that has implications for the dollar. So if you get a stronger dollar that, you know, will trim international equity returns and bond returns for U.S. based investors, and it tightens financial conditions a little bit. So that's something we have to watch. But but yeah, we could end up with a rare cycle where the ECB goes first and the head of the BOJ, Ueda, has a speaking engagement this week too. So that'll be interesting. In fact, I heard a report, and I don't know if you saw this Quincy, because I know you were flying today. There was a report that Japan will formally declare the end of deflation, like actually make a public statement clear as day. That, I mean, that surprises me that they're thinking about that. If that report was true.

Quincy Krosby:

Well, you know, they want to move, but it'll be in conjunction with the wage negotiations. That's what they're waiting for.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Hmm. And what do you think that means for the yen or the potentially, you know, continuation of this Japan rally? You know, that I mentioned earlier?

Quincy Krosby:

Well, the rally has been predicated on shareholder value, right? I mean, that's been key. True. Japan went into a, you know, a technical recession. Obviously, they prefer a weaker yen, but then here's what they have to deal with, the reality the yen would climb, which is something they don't want. And the other aspect to it is for the United States, the implications are quite compelling because I actually saw where the yields went up. The market had some kind of notion, well maybe, maybe they'll do this in March. I think the market is looking more towards April, but the yields climbed higher in anticipation. And then you have to start thinking, well, what about institutional managers? Are they going to little by little take money out of the U.S. Treasury market and repatriate it over to higher yields back home? Not to mention the purchases of U.S. Treasuries, people, you know, I think know that Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. They have not been that active in our auctions over the last year and a half, mainly because of hedging costs. But that's one thing. But imagine having them take some money out and take it back home. That pushes our yields up, and that's why it's a major concern here in the U.S.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, actually European yields, you know, if they cut that could potentially help us keep our yields down, even if the Fed is a little bit later. Yeah. It's a global market. So, yeah, we still like Japan. You know, the yen weakness might've, you know, might be nearing the end <laugh>, right? We'll see. Yeah. It's still hard to predict, but boy, it seems like, you know, the yen maybe should find its footing here. And maybe that happens because the BOJ declares the end of deflation and, you know, starts to, you know, moves off of their negative interest rate policy. And all of that widens their band on yields. The 10-year yield is at 71 bps. I mean, it was in that range a while ago. So it really has sort of stayed anchored.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So, good discussion there, Quincy. Let's go back to the I'll do the earnings section really quickly and then we'll wrap. So Weekly Market Commentary this week is on the earnings season. It's just a recap. You know, I titled this "Super Six Drive Solid Earnings Season", but it was, it was just about as much about margins as it was about these six companies. So, first this is just a chart, showing you the year over year earnings growth rates by quarter. So, we're tracking to 4.8%. We're pretty much done, but there's a dozen or so companies left. So the first point I'll make is that's a really solid upside surprise, given the bank earnings were so messy, right? The FDIC charges were huge. So this five percent-ish number is even better than it seems. And frankly, after the first couple weeks I sure didn't think we'd get there.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. The other important point here to keep in mind is that the ramp throughout 2024 has been preserved, right? Estimates for 2024 especially in Q4 <laugh> are still really, really strong. We don't know if we're going to get there. We might not, although analysts and strategists certainly are getting more confidence Yeah. In strong earnings for this year, double digits is possible. We've been writing that for the past few weeks. Mm-Hmm. <Affirmative> so we'll see. But for now we're holding our forecast where it is. I'll show you what that is in a second. I mentioned margins. Here's the upside surprise in margins, it was 11.7 coming into earning season, right? That was the consensus estimate for net margins for the S&P 500. And look what we did. 12.3. 0.6 upside surprise.

Jeff Buchbinder:

That is a meaningful upside surprise. This is the whole 500 <laugh>, right? Yeah. Collectively generating a you know, a lot more profitability yeah. than Wall Street expected. So you know, it was still a seasonal decline and there's still some cost pressures in the system, but that's a pretty good result. So here's where we get to the super six. And this is, these numbers are remarkable. So if you take away these six companies, then earnings would've been down four-point half percent for the S&P 494. Okay? The super six alone were over nine points of earnings growth for the whole S&P 500. That's how profitable, these companies are. So folks who are saying, you know, fundamental support, these big techs, they're not wrong, right? I mean, that doesn't mean these stocks won't fall.

Jeff Buchbinder:

At some point they will. But there is absolutely fundamental support. And, you know, if that's not impressive enough, if you look at the right-hand side of this table, the far right column shows you how much 2024 estimates were revised by. The average is over 20%, right? And four of these are over 17%. You know, estimates for 2024, we haven't started 2024 reporting season yet, right? We just did 2023 Q4. So for the outlooks to be so strong that 2024 estimates were revised higher by this much, 41% for NVIDIA, 46% for Amazon, 31% for Meta, 17.5% for Alphabet. These are huge, huge companies with major, major profit numbers. <Laugh>, right? Massive profit numbers. And those were revised higher by that amount. It's just remarkable. So yes, fundamentals are supporting these stocks where they are in our view, and we think you stick with them. What do you think, Quincy?

Quincy Krosby:

You said it, it is the power of tech. The power of big tech. The power of the management, the AI underpinning, this move forward and great management. This is why the U.S. outperforms.

Jeff Buchbinder:

There it is. The innovation premium. Absolutely. Yep. Exactly. Exactly. You know, we might not get, you know, a five-year internet boom like the late nineties, but it sure doesn't feel like it's ending anytime soon, <laugh>. So, we're, you know, again, riding the wave, slight preference for large growth over the rest of the style boxes and staying fully invested because the momentum is just so strong. I mentioned the estimate, we're not changing it, but we have an upward bias. We're still at $235 in S&P 500 earnings for 2024. That is about 7% higher than where we're tracking for 2023. It's pretty close to an actual. Probably take that up at some point, but for now, we just want to wait, get more information, you know, at least maybe get to first quarter pre-announcement season <laugh>, and then and see where this market goes in the near term too.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Because we're probably going to change our year end S&P 500 target as well. Stay tuned. Nothing formal at this point, but I think it's fair to say that estimates for the overall S&P 500 were very resilient during earning season as that guidance was generally upbeat, of course, more so for the biggest six companies than the rest of them. But, you know, nonetheless, when you buy the S&P 500, you get the whole S&P 500. So I think we'll go ahead and end there unless you have any concluding remarks, Quincy, anything we missed?

Quincy Krosby:

No, I mean, this is an important week, and we have some big earnings. I can't help it. Costco, I want to hear what Costco has to say.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, retail earnings are the late months.

Quincy Krosby:

Yeah, exactly. And the Fed, Jerome Powell and Friday. And as you pointed out, the ISM service sector, which is really important that prices paid, as you pointed out, extremely important for the various narratives underpinning this market.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Absolutely. So we will talk about those next week. So thank you Quincy, for joining and squeezing this into your busy travel schedule. Thank you everybody for listening to another LPL Market Signals podcast. Appreciate you supporting us and what we do here. Have a wonderful, wonderful week and we'll talk to you next time.