Chart - What we are watching to gauge progress toward stock market's bottoming process


Where things stand now

LPL Research continues to follow developments of our five signals that we believe, collectively, could signal an appropriate time to get more positive on equities as the market’s bottoming process continues.

  • LPL Research has upgraded Signal #1 to “Already there” based on the stabilization of new COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, even as testing ramped up. Though another wave of new cases is possible as states reopen, LPL Research believes the peak in daily new cases in the United States established during the second week of April around 34,000 is very likely to hold up.

  • Signal #2 and Signal #5 are “Already there.” Job losses have given investors visibility into the severity of a US recession, while massive policy responses from Washington, DC, and the Federal Reserve have helped shore up investor confidence and cushioned the economic blow.

  • Two signals are “Almost there.” With the S&P 500 Index more than 25% off its March 23 low, stocks are no longer pricing in a recession (Signal #3) and are no longer oversold from a technical analysis perspective (Signal #4).
LPL Research Weekly Market Commentary

Revisiting Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast

September 20, 2021

LPL Research examines two key elements that prompted us to slightly lower our year-end forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield.

LPL Research Weekly Market Commentary

Policy Risks Loom But Clarity Ahead

September 13, 2021

LPL Research LPL Research explores a few policy-related risks that may increase market volatility in the near-term but maintain the fundamental backdrop for the economy remains strong.

LPL Research Weekly Market Commentary

Poking The Bear

August 30, 2021

LPL Research LPL Research explores five things that some bears believe that do not worry us.

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LPL Research Market Commentary

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The CARES Act

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Podcast: How the CARES Act impacts financial professionals

LPL’s Matt Enyedi and Nicole Petrosino discuss the Act and what it means for financial professionals.

The CARES Act

Understand how it can help you and your clients navigate uncharted waters

LPL Research Market Commentary

Get stock market updates and market volatility insights from top LPL Financial research strategists.

LPL's commitment during COVID-19

Learn how we're protecting our financial professionals and employees during this critical time.