Earnings Season's Mixed Results
May 26, 2020 LPL Research
First quarter earnings season offered a mixed bag. Corporate America produced solid results outside of the COVID-19 pandemic trouble spots, while 2020 earnings estimates have plunged. A return to “normal” earnings could be two years or more away.
Downside Risk Remains
May 18, 2020 LPL Research
Stocks fell last week, and we think more near-term downside may be possible. We take a look at likely catalysts, including high stock valuations, Fed Chair Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions.
Time For A Pause?
May 11, 2020 LPL Research
Stocks tend to lead the economy, and they’ve had a historic run recently. Both a rebound and some equity weakness may be likely. Stocks may also take a break as we enter the historically worst six months of the year.
Big News And New Forecasts
May 04, 2020 LPL Research
Financial news provided the highlights in a week with the S&P 500 Index ending about flat. Headlines featured estimates of Q1 2020 GDP, a top-tier economic report, major central bank meetings, and the busiest week of earnings season.
What Happened to Oil
April 27, 2020 LPL Research
Negative oil prices have dominated headlines recently. While few of us speculate on commodity futures, the price of oil is an important variable. We explain what happened and where oil prices could be headed ultimately.
Is the Earnings Bar Low Enough?
April 20, 2020 LPL Research
COVID-19 travel restrictions and lockdowns have impacted corporate earnings results dramatically. As earnings season begins, we believe there will be winners and some challenges, the bar may be set too low, and forecasting has included some guesswork.
A Recession Is Here
April 13, 2020 LPL Research
We are now in recession, but it’s a very unique recession. It may be one of the shortest, and we may see an economic bounce back later this year. Stocks may enjoy better times ahead.
Market Bottoming Process Continues
April 06, 2020 LPL Research
Stock market volatility remains high as investors closely track COVID-19. We’re watching for signs that investors can start thinking about a resumption of economic activity and an economic rebound. In the meantime, stocks may revisit the March lows.
Road to Recovery Playbook Update
March 30, 2020 LPL Research
The COVID-19 impact to our economy and workers has been devastating, but we’ve seen some positive developments from monetary and fiscal stimulus. We update our Road to Recovery Playbook on signs of a major low in equities.
Key Week for the Bottoming Process
March 23, 2020 LPL Research
The US economy has been impacted in a number of ways, and we are likely in recession now. What began as a crisis of confidence has transitioned to a business crisis, but positive steps are being taken.
Road to Recovery Playbook
March 17, 2020 LPL Research
COVID-19 has sent equity markets into bear market territory. But once the market finds its bottom, it may provide attractive buying opportunities. To guide long-term investors, LPL Research has compiled a Road to Recovery Playbook.
The Bull Turns 11
March 09, 2020 LPL Research
The current bull market just turned 11 years old. We highlight three reasons this bull market is alive and well, and three reasons it could be on borrowed time.
Coronavirus Fears Intensify
March 02, 2020 LPL Research
U.S. stocks suffered their worst weekly decline since the financial crisis as COVID-19 outbreak fears intensified. We provide context for the sell-off and discuss potential U.S. and global economic impacts.
Corporate America Impresses
February 24, 2020 LPL Research
S&P 500 Index companies generated low, but better-than-expected earnings growth last quarter while facing challenging headwinds. We believe these strong results, EPS estimates, and the current S&P 500 fair value reflect the resilience of U.S. companies.
Productivity Bounces
February 18, 2020 LPL Research
Productivity bounced back in fourth quarter 2019, corporate America delivered better-than-expected earnings results, and small business optimism has remained high. This economic expansion potentially could last longer than many think.
Global Gets Going
February 10, 2020 LPL Research
We’re starting to think seriously about upgrading our outlook for developed international equities. We highlight four main reasons why international equity performance could be poised to improve.
Assessing Coronavirus Outbreak
February 03, 2020 LPL Research
The recent coronavirus outbreak has led to a bout of volatility in the markets. History shows us, however, that the market impact from similar major global health events has tended to be modest and short-lived.
A Sentiment Check
January 27, 2020 LPL Research
While this bull market continues its slow and steady pace, investor sentiment has climbed to concerning levels. We think this may mean stocks could be vulnerable to weakness if optimism fades. We look at market indicators for sentiment for direction.
Earnings Are All About 2020
January 21, 2020 LPL Research
Earnings growth was largely absent in 2019, but we expect it to pick up in 2020. With stock valuations elevated, we think earnings hold the key to pushing stocks higher in 2020.
Assessing Geopolitical Risk
January 13, 2020 LPL Research
We discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and the impact this and other geopolitical events could have on U.S. economic fundamentals and corporate profits. Research shows that stocks have weathered heightened geopolitical tensions in the past.
Lessons From the Past Decade
January 06, 2020 LPL Research
The 2010s was an unprecedented decade for financial markets, but it taught investors two important lessons: to ignore short-term market noise and to be prepared for volatility. We look at what we may learn in the next decade.
2019 Hits and Misses
December 30, 2019 LPL Research
2019 was a difficult year to forecast, but we’re pleased to report we got more right than wrong for 2019. We recap our 2019 hits and misses, including equity performance, emerging markets, and fixed income.
Profit Growth Key for 2020 Stocks
December 23, 2019 LPL Research
Now that we have some clarity on U.S.-China trade and Brexit, in 2020 we expect drivers of stock market performance to shift more toward investing fundamentals. We also expect stocks to appreciate in line with earnings.
Better Days Ahead for Bonds
December 16, 2019 LPL Research
LPL Research sees better days ahead for bonds. 2019 was a baffling year for bonds, but we’ve seen some improvement in long-term yields. Bonds can still play a role in helping to diversify portfolios where appropriate.
Ambling Along in 2020
December 09, 2019 LPL Research
U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019, but the economy is still growing, driven mainly by the U.S. consumer. We outline why we believe the economy will continue growing through 2020.
Technicals Check-In
December 02, 2019 LPL Research
Market momentum, global participation, and technical support all provide reasons to think gains may not be over for 2019. While volatility is always possible, record highs need not be feared, and seasonal tendencies may remain a tailwind.
Have We Hit the Earnings Bottom?
November 25, 2019 LPL Research
Corporate earnings declined year over year in the third quarter, but results still exceeded expectations. We remain optimistic that earnings growth has bottomed and is poised to accelerate.
Recession Watch
November 18, 2019 LPL Research
We take a look at what we call the “five forecasters” economic indicators to see if any cracks are forming in the economic expansion and its accompanying bull market.
A Tale of Two Economies
November 11, 2019 LPL Research
Consumer spending has powered the U.S. economy this year as businesses curb investments. We expect growth to slow next year, but a strong U.S. labor market and solid consumer spending will likely fend off a recessionary environment.
Best Six Months of the Year
November 04, 2019 LPL Research
November through April historically have been the best six months of the year to own stocks. Recent S&P 500 highs, continued economic growth, and a healthy consumer could help drive stock gains again.
Market Tricks and Treats
October 28, 2019 LPL Research
The stock market has been hovering near record highs despite an assortment of economic and geopolitical risks. Risks that might spook the markets include trade tensions, bond markets, U.S. manufacturing, Fed policy, and geopolitical concerns.
Seasonal (Tail)Winds
October 21, 2019 LPL Research
Stocks have been on a bumpy path, but we just entered one of the market’s historically strongest periods. Some headwinds still prevail, but we expect them to be temporary speedbumps for this bull market.
Earnings May See Better Days Ahead
October 14, 2019 LPL Research
Corporate earnings growth has slowed, weighed down by concerns over tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty. However, we’re optimistic that progress on trade will occur and earnings growth could pick up. We think better times lie ahead.
Policy Uncertainty Intensifies
October 07, 2019 LPL Research
Geopolitical matters have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary policies, contributing to investor concerns about uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry.
Global Economy Muddles Along
September 30, 2019 LPL Research
The U.S. economy continues to perform well compared to the rest of the developed world and is still exhibiting growth near its long-term trend. The outlook in other developed economies is not quite as bright.
Central Banks Are Back
September 23, 2019 LPL Research
In the last two years we’ve seen the return to central bank dominance, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has significant implications for global markets.
The Curious Case Of Negative Yields
September 16, 2019 LPL Research
There’s a growing pile of negative-yielding debt around the world amid extraordinary monetary policy initiatives. While maintaining respect for global money flows, we believe the combination of economic fundamentals, domestic monetary policy, and a widening federal budget deficit limit the prospects for sub-zero yields in the United States.
Corporate Earnings Outlook
September 09, 2019 LPL Research
We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict. Until we get clarity on trade, we believe earnings likely will continue to grow but only modestly.
U.S. Treasuries and the Yield Curve
September 03, 2019 LPL Research
We reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield because of what we consider the somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic environments.
LPL’s U.S. Real GDP Forecast Change
August 26, 2019 LPL Research
We reduced our forecast for U.S. real GDP, yet we still believe the U.S. economy is in much better shape than the rest of the developed world.
Tweaking Our Forecasts
August 19, 2019 LPL Research
LPL Research is tweaking its 2019 forecasts to reflect increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China.
The New (AB) Normal
August 12, 2019 LPL Research
LPL Financial Research believes the fundamentals of the economy — corporate profits, interest rates, and inflation — will put a floor under the stock market before this pullback gets much worse.