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First quarter earnings season offered a mixed bag. Corporate America produced solid results outside of the COVID-19 pandemic trouble spots, while 2020 earnings estimates have plunged. A return to “normal” earnings could be two years or more away.
Stocks fell last week, and we think more near-term downside may be possible. We take a look at likely catalysts, including high stock valuations, Fed Chair Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions.
Stocks tend to lead the economy, and they’ve had a historic run recently. Both a rebound and some equity weakness may be likely. Stocks may also take a break as we enter the historically worst six months of the year.
Financial news provided the highlights in a week with the S&P 500 Index ending about flat. Headlines featured estimates of Q1 2020 GDP, a top-tier economic report, major central bank meetings, and the busiest week of earnings season.
Negative oil prices have dominated headlines recently. While few of us speculate on commodity futures, the price of oil is an important variable. We explain what happened and where oil prices could be headed ultimately.
COVID-19 travel restrictions and lockdowns have impacted corporate earnings results dramatically. As earnings season begins, we believe there will be winners and some challenges, the bar may be set too low, and forecasting has included some guesswork.
Stock market volatility remains high as investors closely track COVID-19. We’re watching for signs that investors can start thinking about a resumption of economic activity and an economic rebound. In the meantime, stocks may revisit the March lows.
The COVID-19 impact to our economy and workers has been devastating, but we’ve seen some positive developments from monetary and fiscal stimulus. We update our Road to Recovery Playbook on signs of a major low in equities.
The US economy has been impacted in a number of ways, and we are likely in recession now. What began as a crisis of confidence has transitioned to a business crisis, but positive steps are being taken.
COVID-19 has sent equity markets into bear market territory. But once the market finds its bottom, it may provide attractive buying opportunities. To guide long-term investors, LPL Research has compiled a Road to Recovery Playbook.
U.S. stocks suffered their worst weekly decline since the financial crisis as COVID-19 outbreak fears intensified. We provide context for the sell-off and discuss potential U.S. and global economic impacts.
S&P 500 Index companies generated low, but better-than-expected earnings growth last quarter while facing challenging headwinds. We believe these strong results, EPS estimates, and the current S&P 500 fair value reflect the resilience of U.S. companies.
Productivity bounced back in fourth quarter 2019, corporate America delivered better-than-expected earnings results, and small business optimism has remained high. This economic expansion potentially could last longer than many think.
The recent coronavirus outbreak has led to a bout of volatility in the markets. History shows us, however, that the market impact from similar major global health events has tended to be modest and short-lived.
While this bull market continues its slow and steady pace, investor sentiment has climbed to concerning levels. We think this may mean stocks could be vulnerable to weakness if optimism fades. We look at market indicators for sentiment for direction.
We discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and the impact this and other geopolitical events could have on U.S. economic fundamentals and corporate profits. Research shows that stocks have weathered heightened geopolitical tensions in the past.
The 2010s was an unprecedented decade for financial markets, but it taught investors two important lessons: to ignore short-term market noise and to be prepared for volatility. We look at what we may learn in the next decade.
2019 was a difficult year to forecast, but we’re pleased to report we got more right than wrong for 2019. We recap our 2019 hits and misses, including equity performance, emerging markets, and fixed income.
Now that we have some clarity on U.S.-China trade and Brexit, in 2020 we expect drivers of stock market performance to shift more toward investing fundamentals. We also expect stocks to appreciate in line with earnings.
LPL Research sees better days ahead for bonds. 2019 was a baffling year for bonds, but we’ve seen some improvement in long-term yields. Bonds can still play a role in helping to diversify portfolios where appropriate.
Market momentum, global participation, and technical support all provide reasons to think gains may not be over for 2019. While volatility is always possible, record highs need not be feared, and seasonal tendencies may remain a tailwind.
Consumer spending has powered the U.S. economy this year as businesses curb investments. We expect growth to slow next year, but a strong U.S. labor market and solid consumer spending will likely fend off a recessionary environment.
The stock market has been hovering near record highs despite an assortment of economic and geopolitical risks. Risks that might spook the markets include trade tensions, bond markets, U.S. manufacturing, Fed policy, and geopolitical concerns.
Stocks have been on a bumpy path, but we just entered one of the market’s historically strongest periods. Some headwinds still prevail, but we expect them to be temporary speedbumps for this bull market.
Corporate earnings growth has slowed, weighed down by concerns over tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty. However, we’re optimistic that progress on trade will occur and earnings growth could pick up. We think better times lie ahead.
Geopolitical matters have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary policies, contributing to investor concerns about uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry.
The U.S. economy continues to perform well compared to the rest of the developed world and is still exhibiting growth near its long-term trend. The outlook in other developed economies is not quite as bright.
There’s a growing pile of negative-yielding debt around the world amid extraordinary monetary policy initiatives. While maintaining respect for global money flows, we believe the combination of economic fundamentals, domestic monetary policy, and a widening federal budget deficit limit the prospects for sub-zero yields in the United States.
We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict. Until we get clarity on trade, we believe earnings likely will continue to grow but only modestly.