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Ryan (00:01):

Alrighty. Hi everybody. We are live coming to you from day two of the LPL Focus Conference. This is a very special edition again of the LPL Market Signals podcast. We're calling it LPL Market Signals Live because we have our LPL advisors watching us live. So a little bit different. Hopefully you got a chance to join us yesterday. Jeff Buchbinder joined us. We talked about Focus, the big conference. We're going to talk more about here very, very soon. And Jeff, myself, and Marc Zabicki discussed equities and the economy. Today, Marc is back and obviously I'm here, Ryan's here and we're going to bring in Lawrence Gillum, our fixed income strategist, to talk a little bit about the Fed, fixed income, maybe a little economy, who knows. We might even talk a little bit about the stock market once again, should be a fun conversation. So let's bring on Marc for a second.

Ryan (00:50):

We're going to talk just briefly about yesterday's market action as he wants to point out, and then we're going to dive a little bit more in to Focus for a good deal. And they were going to turn the reins over to our wild Fixed Income Strategist, Lawrence Gillum. He's just got a lot of good stuff to do. So we're going to talk about it. So Marc yesterday,  the small caps sold off, market pulled back, we're at all-time highs, tech did well, yields bounced to tad. Anything that struck you from yesterday's market action you think we need to dive into a little bit here?

Marc (01:21):

I think there was a little bit of focus, you know, as there probably.

Ryan (01:25):

Oh, I see what you did, by the way, Focus, I get it.

Marc (01:30):

I thought I would give it a try Ryan, a little bit of focus, if you will, on the Delta variant as there should be, actually, you know it's causing some pause, I think in terms of decision-makers in terms of the way they approach their business, it may be causing some pause in terms of the way, you know, folks like us think about the economy in the market just a little bit, perhaps, and, and there's more work in terms of analysis of that to come, but that was probably the primary focus. It looks like as we sit here today, we're cleaning up some of that downside activity, there was an early bounce this morning.

Ryan (02:10):

Right. No, exactly. I guess all of a sudden, we're not allowed to talk individual equities in terms of recommendations, but do you own any Robinhood? It had the wildest day.

Robinhood's IPO came out last week. They had one of the worst initial days ever. Then yesterday they gained 50%, day before 24%, not really talking about Robinhood and its IPO, but boy, Marc, you turn on CNBC, that's got a lot of people's attention. What is just your high level view of kind of the reaction to that IPO? Again, not a recommendation of a stock, but also what it means for the meme stocks and just the market in general and it's wild.

Marc (02:44):

Yeah. When I see that Ryan that, you know, it makes me again pause. It makes me raise an eyebrow in terms of the way we think about what's going on in the equity market. And we talked about it yesterday. And is that I think prudence, has you kind of raising your eyebrow with this market just a little bit? Not that we don't like stocks because we still do over bonds. But I think you have to pause here and make sure your risk tolerance equates to what your asset allocation actually looks like. And, and we, as an organization, LPL Research again, have indeed taken some logs off the fire, we reduced our equity exposure, we're still overweight, but we have prudently reduced in terms of the way we think about it.

Ryan (03:31):

That. Absolutely. I've told this story before, but in 2015 I was unemployed and I was interviewing with LPL or interviewing with a lot of places. I was connected with Vlad at Robinhood and did a phone interview with them. I think only one, maybe two, it came down to, you know, they were in California. They wanted me to go out there and it just didn't really work out, but who knows? I wouldn't be on this podcast, but I'd probably be retired right now if I would have taken that job the way that stock is going. So anyway, I'm glad to be here though. Although who knows, being 42 and retired doesn't sound too bad either, but that's all right. Let's move forward. You know, so Lawrence, I want to bring you in for a minute here. Thanks Marc, we'll go to you too. I mean, Lawrence, this is your first Focus, right? You're, you're relatively new with the team. You know, Marc’s talked a lot about how excited he is for his first Focus. I mean, we had a, I guess a call afterward yesterday and Lawrence, you seem like you said, wow, this is pretty fun. I mean, what was your initial reaction to your first day of obviously a virtual Focus, but LPL Focus?

Lawrence (04:26):

Yeah, I mean, it's pretty amazing to see the effort and the amount of, you know, man, and I think moments that are put into this to set up this conference. And when we talked to our plan, it's not even a conference. This is an event. I mean, there's so much going on. And so many people connecting and I mean, this is tremendous. I've been in the industry for over 20 years and I've been to a lot of conferences, but this is, this is amazing. And to have the speakers that we have lined up, it's been a great experience for sure.

Ryan (04:58):

No, absolutely. So the one speaker I want to talk a little bit more about is Coach K. Dan Arnold, our CEO, interviewed Coach K, Mike Krzyzewski on the first day of Focus, it was really awesome. I mean, it was, he was awesome. I don't know how long they went, about 30 minutes, but it felt like you blinked and it was over. And then Abigail Posner from Google, one of the heads of Google, is going to talk later in Focus, which is going to be really, really exciting. But Marc, I mean, you've had 24 hours to think about it. You know, you like basketball. You're a Noles fan though. That's okay, I won't hold it against you. Are you a Noles basketball fan, by the way, clearly football, that's a football school. You like them for basketball?

Marc (05:34):

Sure. Of course. I like basketball, cross country, badminton, whatever FSU plays.

Ryan (05:40):

If they're out there, you're aware of it and you're doing it. That's good. I mean, Marc, what'd you think? I mean, Coach K yesterday, I've got, I literally was looking at my Twitter feed on my phone. I got some quotes I'm going to talk about, but what what's, what were the takeaways that you had from Coach K and honestly what Dan Arnold, I mean, Dan and Coach K, he was just, I, again, I've seen six Focuses, this is my sixth one. That was my favorite presentation, interview, whatever you want to call it. I mean, Coach K was just awesome. What would you think?

Marc (06:04):

Well, I think obviously he's a great coach, but I think what came out of his mouth in terms of his, his advice, I guess, crosses over clearly to the corporate world, that's why he's here. And he talked about leadership of people being secondary on the X's and O's part. So he's got, you know, assistant coaches that are perhaps strong on X's and O's, and he's a leader of people. And I think that's an important message for all corporate leaders and certainly our advisors.

Ryan (06:41):

Yeah. I mean, one of the quotes , he said, “Leaders can't stay on the 10th floor, man. They need to go to every floor.” That was really cool. It's not up in his ivory tower. He's coming down. Like you said, connecting with everybody. So to the best of his ability. He also said “When I was younger, I thought I had the answer. Now I listen better.” He said you're not all, this is a really good quote. I know Burt White, who, by the way, you mentioned Lawrence about, you know, Focus being an event, anyone who has ever had the pleasure to watch Burt present, it's not just a presentation, it's an event. So we're really looking forward to that presentation, but Burt said this is probably his favorite quote of the whole thing. And I can't disagree. Coach K said, “You're not going to always do what you like to do, in order to do what you love.”

Ryan (07:25):

Right. I mean, you know, believe me, everybody wants to win a national championship of basketball, but are you willing to put in the, you know, the hours and just the incredible sweat, blood, sweat, and tears to get there? I think the short answer is no most people aren't, but you know, that's, that's the journey you have to get there. So just really, really awesome. Yeah, Coach K was awesome. The stories he had, he talked about the 92 Olympic team.  How Kobe was one of the most prepared people he's ever seen or ever worked with. Just kind of how, you know, they had to forget that they were all superstars, all-stars, mega-billionaires and they had to realize they're a team and they won a bunch of gold medals with him in charge of it.

Ryan (08:03):

You know, but it was just, I forget where I was going with that. I was going somewhere else with that. Oh, the 92, got some stories about 92 with Christian Laettner and Grant Hill. He said that Grant Hill looked at him, he goes, “we're going to win, we're going to win.” He's like, as a leader, you know, you got to say that, but you got to believe it. He's like, I believed it. And he said to Grant Hill, he goes, can you throw it 75 feet, Grant Hill is like, yeah, I can throw it 75 feet. And then he said, Laettner kind of broke the ice. He was like, if he gets it to me, I'll do something with it. So that was the play. That's how they drew up the play. And the rest is history as they say. But I'll say this, one of the big takeaways for me is, as someone who presents a lot

Ryan (08:34):

and sees people that present, you could tell that he did his homework, right. He talked about what LPL did, how we help advisors and how we're growing really fast. And he talked about you know, just the, he talked about like our mottos or mantras and what we stand for. Again, it showed he did a little extra research before he just showed up and I'm not going to use any names, Will Smith, Will Smith. But like, you know, some of some, I think some of our speakers literally have showed up and I'm not knocking it, it was great stuff, but they just got to show up and go through the motions. I mean that, not just at LPL, this is any speaker. I've seen speakers all over the place. Okay. But he did the little extra and I just thought that was really cool and a really nice touch that he understood who he was speaking to.


So Coach K was awesome. We could go on and on. We don't want to go more than 30 minutes in this podcast, but I know Coach K's, Duke in general, right, is a little controversial, controversial, you know, so either love or hate him, right? It's Duke. You love him or hate him. It’s Yankees. You love him or hate him, but it was a really, really good, awesome. I guess the better word to use. So let's change gears. I've talked more than enough. Marc's talked a little bit, we're going to bring in Lawrence Gillum here, and we're going to focus on fixed income in today's LPL Market Signals Live. So Lawrence, I might chime in, Marc, you feel free to chime in. You just kind of tell me when to go to the next slide and then let's see the first one we've got ten-year treasury yield as well off it's 2021 highs. That's one way to put it, I guess I'll give the ball to you here, Lawrence. So sticking with the basketball theme. Yields, a surprise lower, they don't see, at least the 10-years having trouble bouncing. You get it, how I did that, ball bouncing you know, take it from there. Lawrence, what do you think?

Lawrence (10:09):

Yeah, no, I appreciate that. Yeah. So the price action really in the 10-year treasury yield has been one of the big surprises for us this year. And we wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, but you know, coming into the year, we expected interest rates to move off their, you know, really low levels. And we've seen that, but to see the price action and the, the big increase in, in treasury yields over the first quarter was surprising, getting to a high of 174 back in March. And then as you mentioned, Ryan, had been kind of drifting lower since then, which is, you know, as we pointed out another surprise. So we've got a lot of questions about, can we read anything into the price action in the bond market. Is the bond market trying to tell us that the economic recovery is doomed? You know, we don't think so. We'll get into that in just a second, but I mean, the price action has been something that has surprised us, so we can move to the next slide if you don't mind, please.

Lawrence (11:13):

So one of the things that we look at to kind of gauge the market sentiment, if you will, is we look at a number of different markets. We look at, try to look at markets holistically because rarely does the price action in one market tell us everything that we need to know. So the questions that we're getting is the bond market trying to tell us something about this economic recovery. So we don't think so because in general, when rates rally, when yields come down, the yields and the economic activity can be correlated. So if the economic activity is improving, you can see yields increasing. If the economic activity is coming down, you tend to see yields decreasing. So because yields have moved lower over the course of the past four months you know, there's concern about the economic recovery, but we haven't seen that play out in other markets.

Lawrence (12:03):

So what we have here on the screen is that the high yield credit markets option justice, spreads and spreads again, are just that additional compensation for owning you know, the riskier, riskier debt. Generally when there's an economic you know, recession or slow down on the horizon, we tend to see credit spreads wide. And we haven't seen that this time around. So you know, we, we think that it's just a lot of liquidity in the system, a lot of you know, bids for markets across markets. We're seeing it in equity markets, we’re seeing it credit markets, we're seeing it in the rates markets as well. And if we go to the next slide.

Ryan (12:40):

Let’s dive in a little bit, we've got some time, let’s dive in. So, so you're telling me the bond market's not worried about the economy? I mean, is that kind of what you're seeing you think? Because what I read is 10-year yield is low and bond markets worried about the economy, you were saying something different, is that right correct?

Lawrence (12:54):

Yep, that is correct. And you know, generally, I would say that you know, that the bond market is a pretty good indicator of where the economy is going, right? So historically if yields, as I mentioned, if yields just come down, that's a good indicator that the economy is maybe on some shaky grounds. But because we're not seeing that in the credit markets. So the credit markets, if you think about the credit markets, high yield credit has a very kind of lopsided return distribution, if you will, right? So there's only so much upside you can get out of high yield bonds. There's a lot of downside. If something bad happens, spreads widen, yields go up. You can lose a lot of money in the high yield market. So they tend to be pretty jumpy when things, when bad things are about to happen. And, and, you know, we just haven't seen that. So if we look at the chart here, you know, 2010, 2011, 15, 16, 19, and then of course during the COVID lockdowns, we saw yields spike higher in the credit markets. That to us is a more important signal than falling treasury yield. This is, like I said, we just haven't seen that kind of movement in the credit markets just yet.

Ryan (14:02):

Good stuff. So, Marc, I want to go to you for a second. This is kind of along the line, you can talk about that, but one thing that got my attention, the last 24 hours, our friends at Citigroup downgraded their view on equities. And one of the main reasons was saw, potentially higher coming yields. Just this morning, our friends at Goldman upgraded their view on the S&P 500 from 4,300 to 4,700. And you know why? Because they say, cause yields were low. I don't know. My head almost exploded when I just said that. I mean, yeah, you want to build on what I just talked about, or maybe a little bit what Lawrence just talked about? Both of those are fascinating concepts.

Marc (14:36):

I obviously can't answer for Goldman or Citi in terms of the, of the thought process, but I mean, I, I would I would say, you know, when you have that, that kind of bifurcated messaging around the market, which you do and, and prices that, you know, don't have much room for something to go wrong, just risky asset prices in general, Lawrence has mentioned high yield, certainly, you know, priced essentially for perfection. You know, stocks are not cheap, you know, and we all, we all know this. We just think they're, they're likely going to outperform bonds over the remaining half of this year with probably a little, a little of additional elements of volatility to be expected. Why do we expect that? Because, well, reversion to the mean tells you, we haven't had much volatility over the last call it year, we're overdue for some volatility.

Marc (15:28):

So prudence tells you the we'll likely get some at some point in the near future. One thing that I point out in terms of treasury yields, and we sit here in the United States, and we talk a lot about U.S. treasury yields, but yields across the sovereign debt markets in Europe, for example, are down as well. So, I mean, you know, it's a pervasive activity that's kind of going on this a little bit more of a defensive posture that the bond market seems to be telling folks and it's happening in, in France and Germany, Spain, et cetera, not just here in the U.S.

Ryan (16:03):

Yeah, that's probably a great segue. We can go ahead and share. I did move to the next chart. Thank you, Neil, by the way, thank you to Neil, our producer, who is the Wizard of Oz behind the scenes showing these really cool images and showing, moving the slides and everything moves, but yeah, just saw the headline this morning, $16 trillion, with a T, of negative sovereign debt around the globe. I believe it was about 12 and a half trillion, approximately, who's counting, back in May. So we're starting to see that. And that's that theme again,  let's say a couple of weeks ago, 10 year yield at 130, 140, well, that's really cheap historically, or lower, sorry, should say low historically. Bonds are extremely expensive, yet, if you're in just about any other part of the world, that 130, 140 10-year yield, actually it looks pretty tasty. Lawrence, you want to build a little bit on that, and then also the image that we're showing about a 16 trillion in debt, a negative.

Lawrence (16:53):

Yeah, no, that's definitely right. And I, and I think I captured all the zeros up there on the, on the title screen, perhaps, but yeah, so we were about 12 trillion not too long ago. The all-time high is about 18 trillion. We're at 16 trillion of negative yielding that if you look at the global aggregate bond index, you know, the starting yield there is about negative 32 basis points. So as Marc mentioned, we are awash in debt of negative yielding of securities. And as you mentioned, Ryan, that does make our 115, 120 extremely attractive for investors. So we have seen a lot of interest in our market, a lot of crossover buyers into our markets to take advantage of these kind of higher yields from what they're used to. And if you think about it, I mean, for a U.S. investor, you know, 112, 115, 120, whatever it is, you're probably going to lose money from a real return perspective over the next 10 years.

Lawrence (17:49):

But if you're in a jurisdiction like Japan or Germany, where inflation expectations are going to be lower than what we have, you're probably going to eek out a positive, real return. So that's again bringing investors into our markets and it's keeping our interest rates low. So it is kind of a feeling, if you will, in terms of the ability for treasury yields move much higher from these levels. So until we see a more coordinated global economic recovery, we'll probably be seeing these lower interest rates you know, persist for, you know, for, in, in the near term anyway.

Ryan (18:23):

Got it. So guys, we've got maybe about 10 minutes or so, so we've got a lot more good discussion coming. I'm fortunate enough to get on a mailing list. I get to read Art Cashin’s morning notes. Art Cashion has been doing this longer than just about anybody. He's forgotten more about the stock market than I'll ever know. And he's been pointing this out, the concept of putting a bow on kind of what we just talked about. Yeah U.S. rates might seem low, but to the rest of the world, they're not so low. So they're gobbling it up. So then, like you said, that's low. So it's not the bond market freaking out about the economy. Look at the credit markets. Like we started this conversation, credit markets aren't too worried. So it's you know, there's two sides to every story, but again, this is what Art's been saying for a while. And I think it makes a lot of sense that our economy is not in so much trouble, it's just maybe the rest of the world maybe is weakening a little bit and they're buying our debt as a result of that. So let's see. Yeah, go ahead, we'll leave it there.

Marc (19:13):

Yeah. What I would add to that. I think if we look back at the last couple, few drawdowns, and we talk about often how fast this market moves. I mean, when, when we see drawdowns, traders are indiscriminate about what they get rid of. And what's worked over the last couple of material drawdowns that we've seen has been treasuries in cash, right? Effectively, everything else has been sold, whether it's hot, you know, kind of high grade corporate debt, whether it's mortgage backed securities, municipal bonds, et cetera. So there's not a lot of safety out there when the market, you know, endures immaterial drawdown. So that probably puts a little bit of an underlying bid for treasuries, just because it's seemingly one of the lone, safety assets that people can perhaps own during any kind of material drawdown, should we see.

Ryan (20:11):

Great points there. Let's go forward. So this is, I think this is a fun conversation. It's one that's been popping up a lot lately. It's the idea of leadership change to the Fed, right? Jerome Powell's been in charge of the Fed since February of 2018 and a fun cocktail stat. if you will. The Dow dropped 4.6% on the first day when he took leadership. Now that was the U.S.-China trade discussions really started falling apart in early February 2018. Still, historically speaking, when you have new leadership in the Fed, you know what the market tends to do? Tends to test it. We've seen sell-offs. I said one of the greatest handoffs in the history of handoffs, has to be Volcker in August of 86, I'm sorry, August of 87 saying, okay, you know what, I'm done, go ahead and take it, Greenspan.

Ryan (20:58):

We all know what happened soon after, the market crashed in 87. But again, historically, you get that test and we saw that obviously in 2018 with the handoff. So now I'm going to hand it back to you Lawrence and Marc, and we'll hear your conversation or your thoughts too. It's widely anticipated that President Biden, by the way, in case people don't realize this, the president gets to pick who's in charge of the Fed and the various Fed members, the vice-presidents and different people in the Fed. So President Biden gets to pick it, likely it's going to be Jerome Powell. If you look at some of the betting markets, but Brainard is a Democrat, Powell is a Republican. Sometimes politics can play a part of this. She's dovish, but they think she might be tougher potentially on regulation on financials. That's one of the knocks we're getting from the progressive left that we're not tough enough on some of these financial companies and, and that's maybe a knock if you will, on Powell. I said a lot. I hope I don't give it all away. I mean, Lawrence, how likely is it that we might have a new Fed chair person in February2022?

Lawrence (22:00):

Yep. No. So yeah, a lot of great comments you made there, Ryan, and it all, it all obviously certainly true. So on the screen we have Jerome Powell on the right and Lael Brainard on the left and, and she's kind of the leading candidate to be appointed  if Jerome Powell isn't reappointed and as you point out you know, the odds on favorite is Jerome Powell to be reappointed, he's done a good job. The markets give him a lot of props for leading us through the COVID shut downs. And, and then the you know, the economic shutdowns but there is an outside chance that Lael Brainard, as you mentioned, would be reappoint or be appointed to that leadership post. So just a little background on her.

Lawrence (22:45):

So she'd been in the Fed since 2014. So you know, a lot of people say that she's served her time and then she's ready to be elevated to that, that lead role. She is a Democrat. She worked with Clinton. She was an economic advisor to President Clinton and she served sometime in the treasury as well. So she has all the right qualities to lead the Fed of course and, and you know, she would be the leading candidate, but as you pointed out again, she's a Democrat you know and, and she's tougher on the financial regulatory part of, of the Fed's job, which there's been some issues according to Lael. Last week, she came out and said that you know, there were some issues with Chairman Powell’s oversight of some of these financial banks and, and you know, she would do a better job. So, and that piqued the interest of Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters, some of the progressive left,  as you mentioned. So they're definitely supporting her in trying to move her forward.

Ryan (23:45):

Yeah. It's going to be an interesting few months. Don't forget who's in charge of the FTC now, right. Someone who's potentially going to be very tough on some of these communication companies. So maybe some of these people in power are going to be a little tougher. I mean, I know the next slide kind of is a breakdown, a bull or not bulls and bears, wrong word, doves and hawks. I mean, Marc, what's your take? I personally think is still going to be Powell, but hey, if anyone listens to this podcast knows every time I predict something I'm wildly wrong, at least when it comes to sports. So maybe I'll be wrong again here. So take your cue. As I say, I think it's still going to be Powell. What's your take Marc?

Marc (24:14):

I think it's going to be real interesting. I mean, I would guess President Biden is perhaps juggling with a preference in terms of the way he would like to see the Federal Reserve managed, if you will, and stability, which is, you know, likely would  maintain  stability, if Powell remained in, in that seat. I'm going to, I'm going to say it's probably closer to kind of like a 50/50, maybe, maybe Powell is a slight winner here in terms of the eventual outcome. And I know there are other variables associated with it, but the financial sector kind of has been fading just a little bit. I mean, you know, obviously net interest margins and lower yields, you know, pressure that, but you know,  maybe that's telling us something, or at least maybe telling us that the votes going to be closer or the vote or the decision, if you will, is going to be closer than maybe the market expects.

Ryan (25:12):

We call this podcast Market Signals for a reason and that is an excellent point. One of the signals of the market is financials have surprisingly, I think we'll say, kind of been lagging, even though earnings have been really solid and maybe that's something in there.  So we're going to talk about, I know Lawrence, we probably need to cut this off with you, so thank you for your comments. Marc's got some economic comments coming up pretty much right now, but I want to point out, I don't know if you guys know on the pod. Well, this will be on YouTube later. I guess it'll be a couple of days afterward. I got a new jacket here. Nice green jacket. I don't, if you can tell my eyes, do my eyes, do I look a little sleepy, are they bloodshot or anything guys?

Ryan (25:45):

Do I look okay? What do you think Marc or Lawrence? Do I look alright? Looks good here. That's good. Because I did something last night that I didn't think I’d do. USA played at 12:15, and I'm not going to say who won yet because some people are watching this live. But I remember as a kid stayed up for watching Olympics with my dad watching stuff when it was overseas and we stayed up till like two in the morning. Now, in five seconds, if you don't want to know who won the USA game, turn your thing down right now. Okay. Hopefully you turned it down if you don't want to know. Awesome game, U.S. lost Australia. You got to really give them props. I mean, they got beat by Australia. They haven’t been looking good. They look like a team now. Awesome. Awesome games.

Ryan (26:22):

Let's hopefully, I should have said come back at 20 seconds. Let's hope. Okay. So at this point, hopefully you've turned your volume back up. If you don't want to miss it, I'm not going to give it away, but it was a great game. I'll just leave it at that. And I'm glad I stayed up till two o'clock with my boys watching it. I'm doing good. I'm on adrenaline here. So Marc, I just wanted to get that out there and how, you know, it's impressive what the U.S. team is doing. Let's talk about the economy. I've got these slides you tell me when to go to the next one, but we've got maybe three or four minutes for you to go through these slides, take it away. Sure.

Marc (26:49):

And, and just, just so advisors as they settle into their day, know what's going on across, across the globe. So the, the market U.S. Services PMI was basically matching, you know, forecast, slightly down from the ties. So we've talked a little bit yesterday about, you know, how, you know, kind of economic indications are starting to fade just a little bit or perhaps flattening. So that's perhaps an example of that. Actually, the ISM Services Index was also announced yesterday for July. That was indeed higher than expected, so offsets this you know, just a little bit, but that was reported yesterday. The next slide is probably going to give us the challenger job cuts numbers, which we are getting this morning, or we got this morning. It was down 92.8%. So that number indicates, you know, kind of a further fading in this data series, which is, which is good news for the U.S. jobs market.

Marc (27:52):

So that continues to be somewhat favorable. And then today again, if we move to the next slide, we also got the initial jobless claims number. And again, you can see just by the general trend of that line, initial jobless claims continue to fall, which means good news for the U.S. economy. The actual jobs or the initial jobless claims number this morning was 385,000. The survey was 383,000. So generally spot on. And that's an improvement from a claims last week of about 400,000. So while the overall economic environment, perhaps not quite as robust as it's been over the last couple of months, a little bit of fading here, the good news is the jobs market continues to be growing, continues to be more robust than it was just a few months ago.

Ryan (28:48):

Excellent point. So that is the last slide. So guys we've hit the end of today's LPL Market Signals Live. So everyone thank you again for being here. The live version of the LPL Market Signals podcast really appreciate the listenership. Take care, everybody we'll see you then. Bye-bye.


Why Are Yields So Low?

This week in the LPL Market Signals podcast, Ryan Detrick is joined by Marc Zabicki and Lawrence Gillum, where the team discusses one of the big questions lately: how in the world are bond yields so low? 

Coach K

Coach K was a speaker at LPL Focus this year and the team dives into his amazing speech. Ryan points out how Coach K stressed to live in the moment. There are so many things happening at once these days, but focusing on the moment is one way to find success. It was a memorable discussion that the LPL Research team will not soon forget.

Let’s Talk About Bonds

The guys had a fun discussion about potential new leadership at the Fed, but the consensus remains that Powell will get a second term next February. The conversation then shifted to bonds and why yields may be so low. Lawrence noted that yields might look low here, but overseas yields are actually quite high. In other words, with more than $16 trillion in negative yields around the globe, our 10-year Treasury yield at 1.25% actually might not be as low as it seems. Marc and Lawrence both noted that low yields have many concerned about the bond market, but that action in the credit markets is still extremely healthy and shows no signs of stress. If a new recession was coming, we’d likely see more worrisome indicators in the credit markets. 

Tune in now

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This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth in the podcast may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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All index data is from FactSet.

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