Good News May Actually Be Good News for Stocks

Jeff Buchbinder:

Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals podcast. Jeff Buchbinder here, your host for today with my friend and colleague, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, who I was pleased to see last week in person when I was down in the LPL offices in Fort Mill, South Carolina. How are you today, Jeff? Thanks for joining.

Jeff Roach:

Yes. Doing very well, and it was fantastic having the full team back together in person.

Jeff Buchbinder:

It was indeed. Great trip. So we got an action-packed show for you this week. We've got a lot to get through. There's just so much going on. I feel like we could do two hours of this if we wanted to. So here's the agenda. Recap last week. Really interesting how well stocks held up despite the backup in rates at the end of the week. Next we'll do "As Goes January, So Goes the Year", which is our Weekly Market Commentary on the January Barometer, market implications of that booming jobs report. Next, quick update on earnings. The story did change last week with the big techs reporting, and it got quite a bit better, actually. And then we'll end with, of course, a preview of the week ahead, as we always do.

Jeff Buchbinder:

There's not a whole lot going on the economic calendar. So that preview will be brief. It is right around lunchtime, Monday, February 5, 2024, as we are recording this. So let's get into it. So start with a question, is good news good news? I think last week it was, at least late in the week. S&P 500 up 1.4% for the week. We had a pretty big backup in rates on Friday, and yet the positive of more jobs being created and the strong earnings in particular from Meta really overpowered that concern about the backup in rates and stocks just went higher. We're now up 13 out of 14 weeks on the S&P 500. That covers a period where the index has been up 20% plus. So really, really nice rally since late October.

Jeff Buchbinder:

The winners last week really were where you see mega cap tech, consumer discretionary, where Amazon is, big reaction, positive reaction to their earnings. Communication services a solid week. That, of course, is where Meta is pretty good. Week for industrials too, actually, had some pretty strong earnings out of the industrials sector. LPR Research continues to like calm services and energy. Energy, frankly, we still think oil is going to find its footing here pretty soon. But last week was not that week. You'll see on the next slide, we had oil down 7%, that weighed on the energy sector, which is about flat year to date. It's really been a year where growth has led on strongly outperforming value. And the U.S. has led. We say it a lot when U.S. growth does well, it's very hard for the rest of the world to keep up.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We have seen really strong performance out of Japan. That's a common theme, up about 8% year to date. But the rest of the world really struggling to keep up with the U.S. Turning to the bond market. This is where the surprise is, Jeff, and I want your thoughts here on this, the move in rates. If you'd asked me after Friday, what did the bond market do last week, I would've said, well, it's, you know, flat to down. But when you actually look at the numbers, rates came down so much early in the week, you know, driving bond market gains, that the bond market was still up last week, despite the huge losses on Friday, actually, those losses are continuing this morning. So you know, we're right back where we started, you know, in the sort of 4.1, 4.2 range. Jeff, do you think that reaction in rates was logical and is good news actually good news now?

Jeff Roach:

Yeah, so I do love that phrase, the good news is actually good news. We actually talked about that in my quick commentary right after the Friday morning report. And that was just because in previous months, we've had this period where good news was bad news, meaning you had good economic data, a snapshot on decent activity wherever it was in the business sector. And it was investors were saying, hey, that's bad news. Why? Because strong economic growth means that the Fed's not going to be cutting rates anytime soon. <Laugh> In this case, it was interesting because I think investors kind of moved beyond that really simple narrative and said to it as they were working through it, it's going to be choppy, we know that. A little bit of uncertainty on the timing of rate cuts, but it still hasn't changed

Jeff Roach:

the narrative for 2024. Rates will go down in 2024. It's a timing thing. So Jeff, when you're thinking about last week, you know, a lot of that volatility began during the press conference. In fact we were all you know, kind of joking about the gyrations in yields during that press conference. So in the course of just, you know every kind of 10 minute segment <laugh>, there was a reversal whether to the upside or to the downside in rates. And I think it just suggests you know, rates are still trying to find its footing. The volatility began during the press conference midweek. And so a lot of that volatility is kind of shook out. Even though we had a very, very strong labor report.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We can talk more about the labor report later on in the podcast.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. And certainly that backup and rates continued over the weekend with Powell's 60 Minutes right to which was a little more hawkish than maybe the market wanted to hear. Nonetheless, again, good week for bonds last week. I think the Treasury refunding announcements also helping, you know, a little less Treasury issuance than the market expected. And that, of course kept yields lower, at least through midweek. So I guess last thing on that is, as the market unwinds, the Fed rate cut expectations, that tends to put upward pressure on the dollar. Hasn't mattered for the stock market. Stock market's been going up anyway, but that does tighten financial conditions just a bit and is something we'll have to watch. Here's the chart of the S&P in the Weekly Market Commentary this week on lpl.com.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We talk about the January Barometer, which we'll get to in a minute. But we also provide some technical analysis insights on the S&P with the help of Adam Turnquist, our chief technical strategist. And he makes the point that you know, because of how far we've come in a short period of time, we're a little overbought, probably due for consolidation. Plus the breadth has not been great in just, you know, the past few weeks or so. In fact, I think last week the advanced decline line went down, so we had more decliners than gainers. That's not you know, a strong underpinning for a short term move higher. So probably need to take a little bit of a breather here fairly soon. So let's get into the January Barometer. In the weekly, we comment on how likely this holds.

Jeff Buchbinder:

And you know, frankly, when you look at all the data, you know, not just seasonality data, but really the whole setup, we actually think it's more likely than not that stocks go higher between now and the end of the year, and that the January Barometer works. But it's probably going to be pretty bumpy, you know, in part because the economy's probably going to slow, that helps inflation, but it doesn't, certainly doesn't help the earnings outlook. And you have high valuations, right? The equity risk premium's pretty much zero. So stocks aren't really giving you enough earnings to get you excited about owning equities versus fixed income. So we, you know, there are a number of other challenges, geopolitical, the election, et cetera. But we still think the odds favor this working. So when January's higher, as it was this year, on average for the year, you're up almost 17%.

Jeff Buchbinder:

If you're down in January, on average, you're down about two. If you just isolate the February to December period, you're still up about 12 on average and up something like 89% of the time. So we're very likely to see stocks higher this year, probably nicely higher this year, although we've already got, you know, 4% year to date. So, we think this probably works, but maybe stocks don't go up in a straight line. Let's move on to the jobs report a little more on this, Jeff. I mean, it was, it was shocking to me, <laugh> that we created so many jobs, you know, 350 plus. You know, heading into, I guess November, we were starting to see this sort of gradual decline, right? And then we get hit with these two boomers in a row. So I guess the question I would have is what's going on? Are these one-offs, or are we going to get right back to the gradual, you know, slowing trend in job creation here in the next month or two.

Jeff Roach:

Yeah, it's all about your timeframe. So, you know, we talked about just a few minutes ago about, you know, the timing of rate cuts versus, you know, by the end of the year, you referenced just moments ago in terms of equities, equity performance, you know, something maybe, you know, near term versus long-term. I think in the same vein, you look at the job reports on a month to month basis, pretty volatile. But what I also like to do to augment the analysis on these monthly reports is to say, okay, let's look at the year over year changes in the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. So, just to step back here, the government publishes these month on month job gains, they do their own adjustment, seasonal adjustment because of factors. And it's really basic.

Jeff Roach:

I mean, I, you know, when I was, was teaching undergrad economics, you know, it's pretty basic, right? You're not going to hire painters when it's freezing overnight. There's a seasonality to a number of sectors of the economy. So you seasonally adjust the numbers, that's fine. Well, what's really nice is to say, well, let's take a step back. You look at just the year over year changes in the non-seasonally adjusted. So you just say, okay, where was it relative to the previous year at the same point in time to adjust for seasonality? And it's still very, very convincing to keep that narrative of a slowing job market, slowing in hiring. And what's nice about it is the deceleration is very measured. There's no shocks yet, right? You think about in previous cycles, it's not uncommon.

Jeff Roach:

And I think about pre-pandemic even not uncommon to have negative prints, you know, on a Friday morning, course that makes for exciting days for those of us that were on the trading floor of various institutions. You know, you get the surprise print and things really go choppy. I think in this case, where we sit here beginning of 2024, I think you can say that the pace of hiring is still slowing. And you can see it in the year over year, non-seasonally adjusted numbers, just that plain you know, plain vanilla if you will. But what's I think, really fascinating is the kind of momentum you saw in 2023 that did not show up in the initially printed report. So Jeff, I don't know if it's the next slide or not, but I have a picture of the revisions and the impacts on that.

Jeff Roach:

So, let's look at, let's think about this revision story. So this chart's pretty straightforward, basically just saying, okay, every cycle as more and more information, comes in, there are benchmark revisions. There are of course revisions happening on shorter time periods, but on Friday didn't catch a lot of reporters attentions. But I think attention. But I think it's very, very important to think about that momentum going into 2024. And that is on Friday, government reported revisions to 2023. So I show prior to the revision in the orange, post revision in the dark blue. And you can see most of the months were revised up, meaning 2023 had stronger momentum than originally reported. And so what that means, I think, is, and it very practically is it pushes out the slowdown narrative. It pushes that out a little bit later. Kind of like what we just said on rate cuts. Well, with strong numbers like this, it pushes out the timing of that first rate cut. So, it was it's pretty impressive. You're thinking about, you know, where we are in 2023. Granted, the reopenings in our economy had very, very strong numbers. And then 2022, you know, partial reopenings. 2023 was a strong year. A very, very important to track these revisions. Tells us a lot, helps us a lot in terms of forecasting capabilities.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, no doubt. I think the markets may be lost sight of how much fiscal stimulus is still coming through the system. So that's certainly part of this. It's not just that people had a pile of money a couple years ago and they haven't quite, you know, spent it all yet. It's also the inflation reduction act, for example, that I think this is the peak year of investment for that stimulus package the past couple years ago, and certainly is helping support jobs in certain parts of the economy. If we get this tax deal that's working its way through Congress now. And that's, you know, not, maybe not even a coin flip, it's got a hard road ahead, but if we can get something done in the next couple months in Congress, you're going to get even more stimulus. So maybe that even pushes the job slow down out even further.

Jeff Roach:

Yeah. Well, and it is interesting too to think about how 2023 was a unique year in that wages were actually adjusted for inflation. Wages were pretty solid, right? So, remember a few years ago, inflation was running so hot, wage growth wasn't even keeping up. But now you have strong hirings in 2023 and strong wages. It's no doubt that the economy's still humming. So yeah, key takeaway here is the momentum going into 2024 is a little bit stronger than what we originally saw with the first printed numbers, which certainly is again, a call for active management looking for opportunities. There will be opportunities, not equally across all sectors, which actually is a good kind of compliment to the story that you mentioned earlier Jeff, about the Mag Seven by the way, I don't know if you're going to talk about this, Jeff, but I love when you, when you sometimes talk about the S&P 493 <laugh>, which might throw our listeners off a little bit, right?

Jeff Roach:

So you think about the Mag Seven, hey, we'll take out those seven and track the performance of the remaining, it's not the S&P 500 anymore. I love that because it really does tell you a story about where there are opportunities in some areas not as attractive in other opportunities. I think that's the key takeaway from even the jobs report and what it means for investing. So going back to the labor market, I think before you talk about layoffs here, have this graph from an HR firm called Challenger, Gray and Christmas. I love saying that, they've been around a very long time, been tracking data trends for a very long time. Very helpful, started tracking this many decades ago. And the point here is I think the labor market is the key to understanding Fed policy for 2024. As the labor market goes, so goes expectations for Fed policy.

Jeff Roach:

Key takeaway here, it's pretty straightforward. Look at that orange. Orange is the dominant color, meaning firms were predominantly announcing layoffs, talking about layoffs because of cost cutting, not necessarily because of a slowdown in demand. That's why I broke that out between those two reasons for why there's layoffs. So that's something to keep watching. Certainly, we've heard a lot of layoffs some in the financial services sector, banking tech sector. And that's certainly something to keep our eye on, again, as a leading indicator for what the job market might look like this year.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, it's always uncomfortable to see a headline about job cuts and then watch the stock rally on that news. But that's generally what happens because you support margins, you're more profitable. Yes. More earnings coming through. And we know that tech got bloated a couple of years ago, so there's probably still a little bit of excess to trim down from that. So good for profitability, good for margins, but of course you don't want anybody to lose their job. Here's, this is really interesting, Jeff, that you put in here, which is the ratio of part-timers to full-timers. You know, it makes sense that if a company's worried about the future, they would hire more part-timers, right? Because it's not as much of a long-term commitment. But I'm hearing, you know, a lot of folks are labor hoarding, right? Like <laugh>, if you would think that you would if you're hoarding labor, you, that implies you have a shortage of it and you need more. And then maybe you would just go ahead and hire people full-time. So, help me sort all that out.

Jeff Roach:

Yeah, well, maybe we're getting past that you know, inefficiencies in the labor market in terms of hiring and firing and moving around. So, it's almost as if to say, well, maybe firms are saying, I want to keep the relationship going, <laugh> with you. But maybe not steadily dating, we just kind of go out once in a while. Maybe that's the analogy between full-timers and part-timers. And again you look at this graph, the shaded areas, the recession 2020. And what I think is very important as you look at the data is it's relevant to see where we are currently relative to pre-pandemic when the world was somewhat normal. And I think that's where it's somewhat confusing. I think maybe that's kind of the word. Firms are maybe even a little bit confused on what the labor market might hold in growth might look like in 2024. Hence, you're looking at the ratio of part-timers being even a little bit above where we were in 2019, suggesting a little bit of uncertainty from a hiring perspective.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, this could be like one of those false signals, like the yield curve has been thus far. And there are a number of other false signals, remember how much conviction a lot of really smart people had that we were going into recession in 2022 or 2023, and we never got it. Although in 2022 we got two straight quarters of contracting GDP. But my point here is if you, you know, prepare for a downturn and it doesn't come, maybe you're still getting into the mode of not committing long-term investment, right? Not committing to that five-year time horizon to build a factory, not hiring people full-time, because there's a level of commitment involved in that. Maybe that's just been ingrained in companies over the past few years as they continue to wait and wait and wait for a downturn that just has not come.

Jeff Roach:

Yeah. Well, it's been asynchronous too. You think about the different sectors of the economy that had experienced a recession think housing, for example. Great point. And then of course, you know, think from a market standpoint and the earnings recession, we've talked about that at LPL Research, so it's almost as if we saw, alright, we've had kind of all these different experiences and it wasn't coordinated to have all happen at the same time. Meaning you had somewhat of this rolling recession you know, opportunities in some areas and places to avoid. You know, I think the key takeaway here is you say, well, what business owner would say cost cutting is not helpful. And that's where, you know, perhaps part of the reason we got out of the earnings recession is in 2024 looks pretty decent.

Jeff Roach:

You'll talk about 2024 earnings I think in a little bit in this podcast. Think about the value of rethinking your balance sheet, the amount of money you want to spend on labor, right? Because that's typically your most expensive line item, labor costs, and certainly cost cutting is often something that a head of business wants to do all the time. And so going into 2024, we're kind of like the momentum of the labor market. We're on a decent footing heading into 2024.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. And when we do eventually get that contraction, and we think it'll probably be mild and short, but when it comes, companies will be well prepared for it coming into it pretty lean. So thanks for that, Jeff. You segued to earnings. So, let's get into that. And this is actually really really interesting. So it's a big week. We were, you know, tracking to basically down 1%. Now we're tracking to up 1% after all these big tech results. And I actually pulled all these earnings growth rates. Because I think they're important to highlight the fact that while everybody talks about the market's narrow, it's only, you know, six stocks working, they're too expensive. We get all that. But when you look at these earnings growth rates from Q4 <laugh>, it really makes you wonder if they are expensive.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So Alphabet plus 50%, Amazon coming off a low base, plus 3,200 plus percent <laugh>, Apple, Apple was supposedly the one that was really struggling with, you know, weak iPhone demand coming out of China and what have you, up 13%, not bad. Meta up 200%, 198 to be exact, that was the big winner on Friday, up 20%. Microsoft up 26%. Nvidia doesn't report for another couple weeks, but they're expected to grow earnings 410%, okay. Tesla down 40. So there's the exception. You know, you average all that out, it's a lot of dispersion, but average it out, it's about up, I don't know, 50 something. That's really, really strong earnings growth. If you take those companies out of the S&P, you're down about seven, eight points <laugh> of earnings year over year. So essentially there's no earnings growth in the 493 that Jeff likes.

Jeff Buchbinder:

All the earnings growth essentially, and then some is coming from these big tech names. It maybe it's a little easier to just take out the financials, healthcare and energy. Those are the three biggest drags. And then you're up double digits, right? Just these six names are about nine points of S&P 500 earnings growth. So, I know I threw a lot of numbers out there, but you cannot overstate how big of a driver of earnings these names have been. Now that's just a quarter. If you look out for the full year, you know, the S&P based on current consensus is expected to grow earnings about 11. And this group closer to 20. So of course, twice the earnings growth this year should be worth a lot more in terms of price to earnings multiple, and it is. These stocks are third, you know, depending on how you do the math, the mag seven is trading at something like 38 times earnings versus the S&P a little over 20. So yes, more expensive, but I think it's really easy to make the case that it's justified. So anyway, we went from kind of a messy start to earnings season, not a great start to now halfway through in terms of the number of companies and the numbers look great. So Jeff, in sort of seeing headlines from earnings and, you know, thinking about it through your economist lens and anything jump out to you.

Jeff Roach:

Well, I think one thing too, for our listeners to remind folks, we are still in a very unusual time period, right? So Jeff, you know, both of us know we've been in the business long enough. You hate to say this time is different, <laugh>, but when you think about the growth in some of these firms, the percentage growth, you think, okay, well, a lot of this is one off. You didn't mention on the podcast here, but you've, I've talked about this in our STAAC meetings about financials, right? The hit that they had. But again, this is not ongoing. So in terms of these percentages that you threw out just a moment ago, you know, these are quite unusual. And you don't see those numbers all the time, right? 200% here, there and down 40% here, <laugh>, they're coming off such low bases, or they're having such unusual one-off events. I think that's really important for the investor to understand. These are still really unusual gyrations.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, no doubt. But these are strong, strong earnings numbers out of these companies. They're very well positioned. There's a lot of levers they can pull to create shareholder value. So we think that it still makes sense to lean growth and to, you know, you got to pick and choose if you're doing individual equities. But as a group, you know, tech and the sort of tech adjacent areas of communications and e-commerce, we think those areas look quite good here. The estimates have held up pretty well, too, a little bit better than they normally do. So we still think earnings for the S&P can grow somewhere around 8% in 2024. And that's really, we think where the returns for the stock market are going to come from. So with that, let's go to preview the week ahead.

Jeff Buchbinder:

This will be quick. It's kind of nice actually, Jeff, normally we're, you know, racing to get through all these things that are coming. Normally we have a hard time deciding what to highlight, <laugh>, right? I added one. The Senior Loan Officer survey is always interesting. So, I highlighted that here after my initial run at this services, ISM services, we just got this morning was quite strong, by the way. The ISM manufacturing surveys last week were really strong. The prices paid was too strong, Jeff, as you told me. But the manufacturing activity looked pretty good. So I think what we're seeing here is economy that's still on good footing. Even as you know, we get into January, which <laugh>, frankly, I thought the bad weather in January was supposed to slow this economy down.

Jeff Roach:

Yeah, the ISM prices paid component, one of the items there about the 1, 2, 3, fourth one down from the top was really strong, mostly due to the disruptions in shipping, you know, Red Sea challenges, geopolitical challenges, that certainly pushed up costs for shipping. That did show up in the January numbers. So that's something that you'll hear about. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, that comes out a little bit later in the day. And that's interesting because it really helps investors look at what lenders are doing in their tightening or loosening lending standards. Meaning, you know, how easy is it for businesses and individuals to get access to credit? That's certainly a key part, a key driver for the economy. So, that's a very, very important leading indicator on things.

Jeff Roach:

And then of course you know, I won't highlight everything on this page, but I think it's an opportunity to for investors to spend some time thinking globally. Think about the Bank of Japan made some interesting news today on buying bonds, still doing some quantitative easing, one of the outliers, terms of what other central banks are doing. So, the fact that the U.S. economic calendar is a little sparse, perhaps gives us opportunity to talk international. So besides that put that you can see on the very, very bottom of the slide is revisions to CPI highlighted the importance of tracking revisions as it relates to the job market earlier in the podcast. I'll also put a tip of the hat here toward thinking about what CPI revisions might look like, clearly, something that the markets might focus on.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, absolutely. So inflation has come down generally as we all know in recent months, but we had a little bit of an uptick. So I think the markets, as rates move up, markets are a little bit more on edge about the inflation trend. So that means you're going to see more attention on these sub-indexes from the ISM, you're going to see more attention on CPI revisions, more attention on jobless claims potentially as well. You know, we're not near 5% on the 10-year, but we've gone from like 3.8 to 4.2 pretty fast, right? So that is going to have to be going to get investors' attention a little bit more. I just pulled up the ISM numbers because I didn't run them on the slide. And the headline services index was supposed to come in at 52.

Jeff Buchbinder:

It was 53.4, but that prices paid index was supposed to come in at, you know, around 57. It was at 64. So much stronger than expected. The employment number was a little stronger than expected. And the new orders number a little bit stronger than expected as well. So yeah, this <laugh>, you know, we know we got an above kind of above trend earnings or GDP number in Q3 and Q4, might do the same in Q1, at least it's off to off to a good start. So yeah, that's it for me. I'm glad you highlighted though, Jeff, the Japan thing because it's really interesting. You know, I guess they didn't want rates to get too high in the short term before they actually figure out how to get out of this zero rate environment or negative rate environment.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Most folks I think now, and they've signaled this, think that something's going to happen this spring where they're going to have to make a move to get off of this or start the process of getting off of this kind of zero bound. So that's what makes this a little surprising. The yen continues to weaken. And <laugh> they're buying bonds while everybody else is selling them. They're not raising rates while everyone else or they're about to raise rates while everyone else is cutting. It's just a very different monetary cycle. So continue to like Japan as an investment, even though we're not particularly excited about EAFE. You know, the broad MSCI EAFE environment at the moment.

Jeff Roach:

They've certainly been, the Bank of Japan, has certainly been working on prepping markets for a slight policy shift. And I think, you know, one thing that this activity does in the last 24 hours, and is to say, and just to remind investors, yes, we are preparing for a policy shift, but not yet <laugh> hold your horses. And so, you know, Bank of Japan coming in to make sure short term yields don't pop too high. I think partially saying, hey, look at what happened in the U.S. We don't want that to happen here. And so policymakers started doing a little more easing, but they certainly are bucking the trend. But you're right, I think at this point there's been enough data to support us shift in policy as well as conversations from the new head of the Bank of Japan. So still a little bit of volatility there, but yes, overall, if you want to invest internationally our internal research asset allocation committee, certainly looking at some attractive numbers coming out of Japan.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Absolutely. Yeah, we should have defined STAAC when you mentioned it, Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee. So that's our weekly asset allocation meeting. A couple other things on the week ahead calendar, 104 S&P 500 earnings reports. We got some this morning and actually we're starting to see some companies cite impact of the violence in the Middle East as a drag. I think we heard that from McDonald's and Starbucks. So, you know, that'll be a theme throughout, but probably not enough to you know, meaningfully impair S&P 500 profits. But that is a narrative. And you know, generally we're just going to look for continuation of these trends. Pretty strong performance from tech companies. Pretty strong performance from industrial companies so far. So and then beyond that, it's Super Bowl week, so thrilled to have the team I root for in there.

Jeff Buchbinder:

<Laugh>, I'm sure many of you don't care. But <laugh>, that'll be kind of the first wave of the big ad spend blitz. Maybe that can help the communication services sector, given what companies are paying for Super Bowl ads. And then the next super or the next ad spending blitz will be the election, which is already getting started. So pretty good environment for digital advertising, which is part of this whole, you know, big tech area and the Mag Seven as well. So keep that in mind. It's not just all about artificial intelligence. So with that, let's go ahead and wrap. So thank you so much everybody for listening to another episode of LPL Market Signals. Thank you Jeff, for joining. Appreciate your insights on the job market. The job market's so important for where this economy goes and where markets go, and what the Fed is going to do and all of that. So thanks for your insights. Everybody, have a wonderful, wonderful week. We'll talk to you next week and maybe do a little bit of, you know, Super Bowl recap. We'll see if the Chiefs lose. I won't want to talk about it, but <laugh>, hopefully they won't. Take care, everybody. We'll see you next time.