LPL Financial Market Signals Podcast

Uncertainty Has Finally Cleared l LPL Market Signals Podcast

LPL Research

The U.S.-China trade impasse, Brexit, and Fed policy have been the biggest uncertainties in the equity markets this year. Now that these seem to have cleared, what do LPL Research strategists expect for equity markets in 2020?

Subscribe to the Market Signals podcast series on iTunesGoogle PlaySpotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

LPL strategists cover three of the biggest uncertainties of 2019:  the U.S.-China trade disagreement, the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union (Brexit), and questions about what the Federal Reserve (Fed) will do next. Without these strong headwinds, equity markets may be poised for more gains in 2020.

TRADE DEAL PHASE ONE COMPETE

The United States and China have finally agreed on a phase-one trade deal. As the LPL strategists discuss, the United States cancelled the plan to add 15% tariffs on an additional $156 billion of Chinese goods, but it will leave $25 billion in tariffs on the existing $250 billion of China’s products to make sure China sticks with its commitment to buy up to $50 billion worth of U.S. agriculture per year over the next two years. This agreement is a major step in the right direction for trade, but now we move to phase two of the trade deal with China, which could be much more difficult.

Emerging markets gained last week; this is one group the strategists continue to like as we head into 2020.

BREXIT CLARITY

More good news came from the United Kingdom (U.K.) after the British public gave Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative party a clear victory and control of Parliament. As the LPL strategists discussed, this opens the door for the U.K. to finally leave the European Union (E.U.) and complete “Brexit.” As a result, many European stock markets soared late last week, with the STOXX Europe 600 breaking out to new 20-year highs.

The British pound also rose on the news, as the chances of a “hard Brexit,” or leaving the E.U. without a deal in place, tanked.

THE FED TIES A BOW ON 2019

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced at its December meeting that it would leave rates unchanged, concluding a string of three 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cuts from July to October. As the LPL strategists discussed, investors expected the Fed would leave rates unchanged after Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly messaged the end of rate cuts at the previous meeting. What was more interesting, though, was policymakers’ rate projections, illustrated on the updated “dot plot.” Policymakers now expect the fed funds rate to stay unchanged through the end of 2020, before moving higher over the next two years. The updated dot plots appear to confirm that the recent string of rate cuts was indeed a mid-cycle adjustment.

Image

 

Tune In Now

Listen to the entire podcast to get the LPL strategists’ views and insights on current market trends in the US and global economies. To listen to previous podcasts go to Market Signals podcast. You can subscribe to Market Signals on iTunesGoogle Play, or Spotify.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not bank/credit union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any bank/credit union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.

Member FINRA/SIPC

For Public Use — Tracking #: 1-922357