Prediction Markets: A New Bet Against Traditional Investing for Financial Advisors

In this episode of If You Could, prediction markets are reshaping investor interest. LPL's Chief Wealth Officer, Aneri Jambusaria discusses the opportunities, risks, and regulatory uncertainties advisors should consider.

Last Edited by: LPL Financial

Last Updated: September 30, 2026

Aneri Jambusaria, Group Managing Director, Chief Wealth Officer, LPL Financial

IN THIS ARTICLE

Aneri Jambusaria, Chief Wealth Officer at LPL Financial, has been watching a shift many advisors are only beginning to register: younger investors are channeling money into prediction markets — platforms where you can bet on everything from election outcomes to whether the Steelers make the playoffs — and some are treating it as a substitute for long-term investing.

The cultural pull is real, the regulatory landscape is unsettled, and the conversation is already happening in clients’ lives whether advisors participate or not.

What Are Prediction Markets, and Why Are They Everywhere?

Prediction markets let participants bet on future events — interest rate moves, election results, the entertainment industry and more and continuing to gain in popularity. The noise is loud. The footprint is small. But the cultural signal behind the growth demands attention.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have made them accessible to anyone with a smartphone. Yet prediction markets remain a tiny fraction of the financial system. U.S. financial markets hold roughly $75 trillion in assets,¹ while prediction markets trade about $25 billion a month and continue to gain traction.²

Investing, Gambling, and Speculation: Knowing the Difference

With the emergence of predictive markets the lines are blurring and some investors are thinking differently about investing. But there are still clear differences. Investing is an expanding-pie game — you buy pieces of companies, those companies generate cash flows, and over time the value grows. Gambling is a fixed-pie game where you battle the house, and you know the outcome in minutes. Speculation, long used by institutional investors, is betting on defined future outcomes like the price of oil or corn, enabling efficient price discovery that benefits even non-participants.

Prediction markets are multi-faceted. Some bets create genuine portfolio utility. Others — on the next action movie star or baseball game winner — are pure entertainment.

Why Younger Investors Are Choosing Prediction Markets

The appeal isn’t just novelty. Many younger investors express frustration with the traditional financial system, pointing to housing affordability, perceived inequities in the markets, and a belief that achieving the American dream has become more difficult. Prediction markets are accessible to anyone with a smartphone. You can see the odds. You can play.

“We’re definitely seeing consumers, especially younger individuals who are starting to conflate gambling and prediction markets with long-term investing,” says Jambusaria. “And that’s where I think we certainly start to get concerned because there is such a different purpose and value for investing around that long-term wealth creation.”

The sentiment is understandable. The consequences may not be. Younger investors could be missing long term opportunities in traditional investment vehicles.

The Data Reality

According to Bloomberg, roughly 69% of Polymarket users have lost money since 2022.³

Not all prediction market activity is problematic. Jambusaria checks them regularly as a secondary data source, and the signals can be surprisingly strong. Weather prediction markets have outperformed traditional meteorology. Election markets have beaten conventional polling.

For advisors, the portfolio utility is real but narrow. Better signals on interest rates and political outcomes can inform sector positioning — particularly in healthcare and financials heading into midterm elections. The key is treating them as a supplementary source, not a primary investment vehicle.

Market Integrity and the Regulatory Landscape

Some outcomes are harder to influence than others. A bet on the weather is different from a bet on whether someone will be mentioned during a speech. In the latter case, people involved in preparing the speech or submitting audience questions could influence the result. For Jambusaria, that’s an important limitation: Prediction markets are useful as an information source only when safeguards prevent people from misusing insider information to manipulate them.

The regulatory picture is messy. The CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) regulates prediction markets. State gambling commissions regulate betting. The two are locked in a turf war over revenue that may reach the Supreme Court. Several states have already outlawed prediction markets, and different administrations have taken sharply divergent views on how to manage them.

The ideal future would be a framework that distinguishes entertainment bets from those that create portfolio value, with rules tailored to each.

How Advisors Should Navigate the Conversation

The instinct to dismiss prediction markets as gambling and not a long term wealth building strategy is understandable — and potentially costly. A younger client who hears “you’re doing it wrong” may simply stop sharing. Jambusaria’s advice: lean in with curiosity. Ask clients about their activity, even those who don’t bring it up. Understand what’s driving the behavior — a desire to express a worldview, engage with community, or chase a sense of agency that traditional investing doesn’t provide.

The conversation also gives advisors a chance to help clients express their views in ways that serve long-term wealth goals. Prediction markets aren’t all bad, and they aren’t all good — but they are already part of the landscape, and advisors who engage thoughtfully will keep the next generation engaged.

 

"I’d like us to take the best of both worlds. So I’d like us to take the marketplace for information that is possible in that portfolio utility that we see becoming very apparent and impactful. And then pair that with the sense of community that you get from a day at the roulette table. "

Aneri Jambusaria

Group Managing Director, Chief Wealth Officer, LPL Financial

And somewhere between a $20 Padres bet and a corn-price prediction, there’s a reminder that prediction markets still tap into something fundamentally human — the desire to have a stake in the outcome, and to share it with others.

Featured Guest

Aneri Jambusaria, Group Managing Director, Chief Wealth Officer at LPL Financial

Aneri Jambusaria is Group Managing Director, Chief Wealth Officer for LPL Financial, where she is responsible for managing the Wealth Management organization. The Wealth Management organization is responsible for delivering a portfolio of solutions that enable advisors and institutions to offer a differentiated end-to-end wealth management experience for their clients. 

PREDICTION MARKETS FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS FAQS

What is the difference between prediction markets and gambling?

Prediction markets and gambling may feel similar to participants, but they operate under different regulatory frameworks and serve different purposes. Gambling is a fixed-pie entertainment game regulated by state gaming commissions, where participants battle the house for a known outcome in minutes or seconds. Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a form of speculation, and they can enable efficient price discovery — providing signals about future events like interest rate moves, weather patterns, or election outcomes that have genuine portfolio relevance. The distinction matters because some prediction market activity creates informational value, while gambling does not.

Prediction markets fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), which regulates them as a form of speculation rather than gambling. State gambling commissions, however, have challenged this framing, arguing that sports-related prediction markets resemble betting. The tension has led to lawsuits, state-level bans, and a regulatory landscape that may ultimately reach the Supreme Court. Different presidential administrations have also taken divergent views on how tightly to control these markets, adding further uncertainty.

Many younger investors perceive the traditional financial system as stacked against them — with housing affordability, market structures that seem to protect existing wealth, and limited entry points. Prediction markets offer something different: transparent odds, immediate participation, and a sense of agency. For some, it’s also a way to express their worldview and engage with a community of peers. The appeal is understandable, but the risk is that younger investors conflate this entertainment-driven activity with long-term wealth building, which serves a fundamentally different purpose.

Prediction markets can function as a valuable secondary data source for investors and business professionals. Weather prediction markets have demonstrated earlier and more accurate signals than traditional meteorology, and election markets have outperformed conventional polling in some cases. The principle is straightforward: when people put skin in the game, information quality tends to improve. For advisors, these signals can inform sector positioning — particularly around political outcomes that may affect healthcare, financials, or other policy-sensitive areas. The key is treating them as supplementary, not primary.

When clients mention prediction markets — or when advisors suspect they’re participating without mentioning it — the more effective approach is to lean in with curiosity rather than dismissal. Advisors who ask clients about their prediction market activity — even those who don’t bring it up proactively — can uncover important information about what drives their financial behavior. Some clients use prediction markets to express their worldview, engage with community, or chase a sense of agency. Understanding those motivations creates an opportunity to educate clients on long-term wealth strategies that may better serve their goals, while keeping the conversation open rather than shutting it down.

 

 

Matt Enyedi [0:02] Welcome to If You Could with Matt and Taryn. I’m Matt Enyedi. And

Taryn Huget [0:05] I’m Taryn Huget.

Matt Enyedi [0:06] T, I gotta confess something to

Taryn Huget [0:08] You. What is it?

Matt Enyedi [0:09] I was at the Padre game last Sunday, and I saw an ad for Kelce on the right field wall, and I read it as Kashi.

Taryn Huget [0:16] The breakfast cereal?

Matt Enyedi [0:18] Yes, cereal. I spent half an inning wondering, when did breakfast go so big and start sponsoring the walls of Major League Baseball games?

Taryn Huget [0:26] I think this is where Gen Z, and I’m probably assuming even your daughter, would refer to you as

Matt Enyedi [0:31] Unk. Oh, she loves calling me Unk. It’s her favorite expression to describe her ancient out of touch dag. But here’s the thing. Once I actually looked it up, I realized Kalshi had a market for everything, including the Padres winning the World Series, which as a fan forced me to ask myself a very painful question.

Taryn Huget [0:49] What are the odds?

Matt Enyedi [0:50] What are the odds?

Taryn Huget [0:51] So would Kalshi have her Padres at?

Matt Enyedi [0:54] Not good, T. Low. I’m talking low, single digits, 2% low. But the thing is, it’s not a Padres problem. It’s a Major League Baseball system problem because payroll disparity makes the outcome almost a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. It just feels like the whole thing’s rigged.

Taryn Huget [1:11] That system problem isn’t just a Padres or Major League Baseball problem. It’s exactly the problem that the next generation of investors feel about the financial system. Foregone conclusion, deck stacked, outcome determined before they even get to play.

Matt Enyedi [1:26] Right. And Kalshi’s pitch to them is not here’s a fair game. It’s here’s a different game, one that you can actually see the odds on. The new game that blurs the lines between entertainment and investing, where you can win big and you can win now.

Taryn Huget [1:41] And I get it. When you see the financial markets is stacked against you with no way to enter, no way to win, why not try something else? They’re not speculating because they lost respect for the rules. They’re doing it because at least this game shows you the rules out loud.

Matt Enyedi [1:58] Exactly, Taryn. And this is the part I think we have to worry about more than the whole, hey, the kids are gambling with their future headline. They’re not fleeing logic. They’re fleeing a game they see as rigged. For one that’s unfortunately, maybe even more so.

Taryn Huget [2:12] Investing, entertainment, gambling, they’re all converging all at once and the next generation sits at the center of all of it. And today, we’ve got a really wild one with LPL Financial’s chief wealth officer, Aneri Jambusaria. She explains why so many younger investors are choosing entertainment over a traditional long-term approach. What that reveals about their trust in the financial system and how advisors can navigate those conversations. Conversations that are rooted in skepticism about whether the strategies that worked for previous generations are gonna work for them.

Matt Enyedi [2:50] My prediction, this is gonna be one of our best conversations yet. If you could, starts now.

Taryn Huget [2:55] Here we go.

Matt Enyedi [2:58] Aneri Jambusaria, welcome back to If You Could.

Aneri Jambusaria [3:01] Thanks. Great to be here. Yeah,

Taryn Huget [3:02] Welcome back. We’re excited.

Matt Enyedi [3:04] We have a lot to talk about with you today and a very exciting topic, but I actually wanna level set because I feel like everyone is talking prediction markets. It is everywhere you go. It’s Robinhood, it’s Vanguard, it’s Schwab, it’s my 12-year-old neighbor, it’s my 78-year-old mom, and it’s seemingly taking over the financial markets. But I think we need to have a little bit of perspective here first, is the US financial markets have somewhere around $75 trillion in assets underneath them, whereas the prediction markets trade roughly $25 billion a month. And so while they are in the news and they are on the billboards, the reality is they are still a very, very small, in fact, infinitismal part of the overall financial marketplace.

Taryn Huget [3:47] That’s fair. And nobody’s saying that prediction markets are replacing the stock market tomorrow. But the growth is really hard to ignore. I mean, trading activity has surged over the last couple years, and the attention these markets are getting suggests something bigger may be happening. I mean, people aren’t participating just for fun. They’re looking to these markets for signals and maybe even a different way to think about future outcomes. So Aneri, help us unpack what’s really going on here. What is fueling this hype and why are so many people paying attention?

Aneri Jambusaria [4:23] Well, part of what would be helpful is maybe level set, as you said, Matt, around gambling, investing, and speculation. And I’ll start with investing. When you invest, you are taking your hard-earned money and you are buying small parts of a bunch of different companies typically, right? And in doing that, what we’re doing is we’re giving those companies capital, and they’re then using that capital to be able to invest in their businesses and generate cash flows and earnings, right? And over a long period of time, companies tend to be successful, right, by an average of five to 10% a year. And over the last 50 years, it’s been a pretty good bet. If you got a long-term goal, whether it’s retirement or education, put your money in the markets and it’s the best deal in

Matt Enyedi [5:02] Town. Good things happen. Good

Aneri Jambusaria [5:03] Things happen. All right, I’m gonna contrast that with gambling, right? So investing we talked about is this expanding pie game where the value of what you can win actually grows over time. With gambling, it’s very much of a fixed pie, right? Where you’re basically battling it out with the other participants and the house for the best possible outcome. Um, it’s also an outcome that you know in minutes or maybe even seconds, let alone years or decades. And it’s also just primarily for the form of entertainment, right? As opposed to investing, which is about building wealth, gambling’s just about having fun. All right. Now I’m gonna introduce a concept that’s maybe a little bit newer to retail investors called speculation.

Matt Enyedi [5:41] Okay. Mm-hmm.

Aneri Jambusaria [5:41] And speculation has been around for a really long time, but primarily used by more institutional investors. And speculation, think about that as you’re betting on a defined future outcome. So it can be the price of corn, the price of oil in the future, and in doing so, it enables something that we call efficient price discovery. So I’ll give an example of how this can be helpful. So most of us as consumers, we own companies like airline companies in our portfolios, right? Maybe it’s United Airlines or Southwest Airlines. And a big driver for those companies and their value is knowing what the price of fuel is, right? ’Cause fuel’s a big expense item, it drives demand for air travel. And historically, it was hard sometimes to know, well, what’s the future price of oil? And then how could that drive the value of the company? Right. And so that’s really what you may hear about as the futures market or the swaps market. Really, it’s a marketplace where people can bet on the future price of things like oil, and in doing so, they give a really good indication or signal for investors in companies like Southwest Airlines how to value the company.

Matt Enyedi [6:46] And it allows folks who are exposed to create hedges against risk.

Aneri Jambusaria [6:50] Exactly. Exactly. So as consumers, right, most of us probably have not participated in the futures market, but we all benefit because our portfolios are marked to market because of the futures market and the efficient price discovery it enables. Okay. So if that’s a little bit of like the level set, maybe then we switch gears and talk about what’s happening, right?

Matt Enyedi [7:07] ’Cause now you’ve taken speculation from Wall Street and what we’re talking about is speculation on Main Street. Yes.

Aneri Jambusaria [7:12] Mm-hmm. All right. So let’s talk a little bit about how these things have changed. And I’ll start with investing. So investing, of course, has become incredibly digitally driven in the last 15 years. And now you don’t have to go and pick up the phone or go somewhere. If you wanna place a trade, you can do it from your pocket, just pull out your phone and do it on, on an app. Yep. And then on top of that, it’s become much more real time. So we’re now in the process of moving towards something called 23 by five trading. So instead of being able to trade typically during market hours, which is historically how trading has been done, you can trade pretty much around the clock in the future, right? And so it’s gonna be something that, that consumers do or have access to do much more real time. Gambling has changed a lot recently too. The last few years, the rules around gambling and specifically digital betting have loosened significantly. You may have heard of companies called FanDuel or DraftKings are now really prevalent, especially in the sporting space. And gambling for sports has, of course, increased in popularity significantly. Significantly, right? And that’s where the prediction markets comes in, right? Which is

Matt Enyedi [8:07] A little bit newer to the game. Exactly. People have been gambling forever. It’s become increasingly digitized, but these prediction markets change the game a little bit.

Aneri Jambusaria [8:16] For sure. So that’s the area that I’d say historically was much more of an institutional activity to speculate, is now there’s broader access to retail investors. So think about the prediction markets like a marketplace for information, but all sorts of information, right? So yes, those things that enable efficient price discovery, like betting on future interest rates or, uh, betting on the future price of fuel, but also things that are maybe more for entertainment purposes, like who’s gonna be the next James Bond or who’s gonna win the next season of Dancing with the Stars, things like that.

Matt Enyedi [8:47] But the majority of what we’ve seen so far has been on sports.

Aneri Jambusaria [8:51] The prediction markets, when they first started out, were focused on more of those broader economic indicators, but as things have evolved and the rules have loosened up for prediction markets, there’s been a broader set of more entertainment-driven bets that have been created. And yes, a lot of demand for sports-related bets that you can make. And one of the nuances here, right, is just the way that we talked about how gambling is kind of a distinct type of activity. It’s regulated in a certain kind of way. Prediction markets are another distinct entity regulated in a different kind of way, right? So the former is regulated by the gambling regulators. The latter is regulated by the futures regulator, which is called the CFTC. That said, the tricky part here is that when it comes to sports specifically, you have one type of event that you are betting on the outcome of, but maybe in two different ways. In one way through a gambling construct and in one way through a prediction markets construct. So hence, that’s why this has become a really interesting topic for discussion.

Taryn Huget [9:47] So I have to admit, as part of preparation for this podcast, I downloaded Kalshi and I went to a Padres game earlier this week and made a few predictions. And so I started with $20, and then by the end of the game, it turned into $40. And suddenly, I definitely cared a whole lot more about the game itself.

Matt Enyedi [10:08] So when you had family night with the Hugets at the Padre game earlier this week, while your kids were popping popcorn, you were sitting there glued to your phone, gambling the entire time?

Taryn Huget [10:18] No, Matt. I was not gambling. I was predicting.

Matt Enyedi [10:21] Well, if the CFTC can make that distinction, I guess you can too.  But I think that’s a funny thing, Aneri, is I’m really struggling with this. The CFTC governs predictions, the states monitor gambling activity, and one is betting on a winner or a loser, and one is predicting an outcome. And somehow we’ve been able to weave a line between those two and call one gambling and not the other.

Taryn Huget [10:49] And they feel pretty similar. I can tell you my experience is that there are a lot of similarities.

Aneri Jambusaria [10:53] Totally. Well, I first just wanna call out, Taryn, in your experience, I think there’s a couple things that are noteworthy. Number one, I think there’s people who might not have been fans of certain type of entertainment, like sports, who’ve become interested in part because of the prediction market. So there’s real entertainment value associated with it. At the same time, as you kind of indicated through your story, like, it can get easy to get carried away, kind of like gambling, which is why there’s a lot of concern around this. There’s a lot of debate around these topics, and there’s gonna continue to be debate. It’s gonna make its way to the Supreme Court. There’s been lots of lawsuits. There’s been plenty of states, too, that have outlawed the use of prediction markets because there are concerns around the way that they’re showing up in a similar way as gambling.

Matt Enyedi [11:32] Yeah. Like I happened to be in Las Vegas recently - . And they are outlawed in Nevada. And I don’t think it’s because Nevada cares about outcomes for human beings. Uh, I think it’s because they have a different way that they monetize those outcomes.

Aneri Jambusaria [11:43] Yeah. Well, let me maybe share a different way to think about it, which is kind of where, you know, I’d like to see things head, which is more towards thinking about what is a, a bet for the purposes of entertainment - uh-huh. As opposed to what’s a bet for the purposes of efficient price discovery that adds portfolio value. And I really do think that distinction is important. Today, to your point, Matt, like, gambling and prediction markets both have entertainment value today. And so for us as consumers, there’s a lot of similar implications of that, even though technically they’re different constructs. My view is that maybe we think about those the same way, but then also think differently about prediction market opportunities that actually do create portfolio value.

Taryn Huget [12:20] For me, I do have to say it with, it’s purely entertainment. Still is. No problem.

Matt Enyedi [12:24] We’ll see. But the - It’s a dangerous path you’ve gone down, Taryn. But the minds

Taryn Huget [12:27] Are definitely getting blurred. But a growing number of younger investors, I mean, they do see prediction markets as more than a game. They’re seeing it as a way to build wealth, yet the data is telling us a different story. So according to Bloomberg, since 2022, roughly 69% of Polymarket users have lost money. Now, meanwhile, a diversified investment in the S&P 500 would have generated strong positive returns within that same period.

Aneri Jambusaria [12:54] Taking a step back, right? There’s a lot of similarities between gambling, investing and speculation and how it shows up for a consumer, right? You can do them all now just on the palm of your hand. They all involve putting some money upfront, and then there’s a chart that either goes green or red. And so it’s easy for a consumer to get confused about these things a- and what they are. And to your point, like, we’re definitely seeing consumers, especially younger individuals who are starting to conflate gambling and prediction markets with long-term investing. And that’s where I think, you know, we certainly start to get concerned because there is such a different purpose and value for investing around that long-term wealth creation and contributing to our economy that’s very different from gambling and the prediction markets.

Matt Enyedi [13:35] I do think though, Aneri, and you and I have talked about this, is it’s not just, “Hey, it started as entertaining. I’m confused.” It’s also backlash. Backlash from a system that we think a lot of the younger generation feels is rigged against them. And so they’re going down this path, sometimes for entertainment, but sometimes because they think the other way is never gonna work for them, because you see a marketplace that doesn’t clean itself out as often as it once did because we’re protecting the wealth of those who already have it. Housing prices that are impossible to enter, and so you don’t get that long-term asset value increase. And they’re finding a way to make the American dream come true, and they just don’t see the path that maybe you or I or our parents took as available to them.

Aneri Jambusaria [14:16] Totally. And I think the point you made on housing affordability is like part and parcel, right? So younger generations having an even harder time to meet some of those initial life milestones that prior generations could do more easily through no fault of their own just because of the way that the, the housing market and the economy is working right now. Putting your, your money into the prediction markets instead of putting it into long-term investing is not gonna solve that either, right? Yeah. So while it’s full, it’s fully understandable, some of the sentiment that’s driving it, I think the consequences are potentially pretty harmful for consumers if they take that path.

Taryn Huget [14:46] So we’ve talked about some of the negative sides of the prediction markets, but where can they go right? What are some of the benefits?

Aneri Jambusaria [14:52] There’s actually a ton of positive benefits in just the information value that you can get from prediction markets. And I’ll just share, like, I check the prediction markets regularly, not as a primary data source, but as a secondary data source. Okay. And there’s some really important insights that investors and other business professionals have started to get and really utilize effectively from the prediction market. I’ll share a couple of examples. I think the weather is a really cool example of where the prediction markets are adding value. For years, we’ve had plenty of data about the weather. We’ve had plenty of meteorologists all around the country that are trying to make sense of all that data, but they haven’t always had the same opinions, and it’s kind of hard for us as consumers to know who we should listen to. The prediction markets have been so far remarkably effective at providing a better signal around weather. An earlier signal? An, an earlier signal. A more accurate. And a more accurate signal, right? So both. And, and it, it proves that what we as investors have known for a long time, which is when you put skin in the game, you actually get better information and outcomes because of

Matt Enyedi [15:51] It, right? Th’s one of the things I was wondering though. When you look at weather or political outcomes, is the data actually compelling that as you look at it, interest rates, political outcomes, elections, that if it’s an 85% chance of that outcome, it’s feeling much truer than say a traditional polling system?

Aneri Jambusaria [16:07] Yeah. So look, the prediction markets haven’t been long enough for us to have, like, a really robust dataset, but it does feel like in areas where there’s been a lot of unstructured data in the past, like weather, like polling on elections, for example, the evidence so far is that you do get better signals through the prediction markets than you would more broadly through looking at more subjective assessments like polls, for example. Elections, and I think politics are another interesting area, again, to explore, because yes, like, you do sometimes get a better signal through the prediction markets in terms of what some of the outcomes are. We have the midterm elections coming up, and depending on what the outcome is, in Congress, it could impact how investors wanna position their portfolios, especially as you think about sectors like healthcare and financials, for example. And so there’s real portfolio utility to be getting both an earlier signal and a higher quality signal in these areas. This

Matt Enyedi [16:56] Will be interesting because it’ll be probably our first experiment in, in judging the prediction markets versus the traditional polls. Mm-hmm. And there’s been so much frustration with polling data and it’s - That’s interesting to think about. Inability to predict the outcomes. And we’ll be very curious to see if this starts a, a movement away from polls and more towards predictions.

Aneri Jambusaria [17:13] I will say though, there’s also some negative externalities from the prediction markets and, like, elections and politics are a great example of also where it could go wrong, which is in addition to, to your point, Matt, of, like, you can get theoretically better information and better signals. It’s really only if the information in the markets are controlled in a proper way, meaning nobody who has any kind of insider information - uh-huh. That they are not allowed to trade upon is able to manipulate the market.

Matt Enyedi [17:42] Well, I think that’s the big thing that I wanted to dig into, is because, yeah, there are some bright sides, there are some new ways we might be able to use this data, but the dark side is pretty dark because so much of what’s inside of those areas is absolutely manipulatable, and maybe even by a single person. Like, it’s hard to manipulate the weather. The outcome of a game, harder to manipulate, but ability is there. Outcome of a certain play, highly manipulative, because the individual can make that decision to catch the ball or drop the ball. And then you look at some of these other things I was just reading this morning, the new kind of hot dot out there is the mention markets. Oh, yes.

Taryn Huget [18:16]  What, what -

Matt Enyedi [18:17] The mention

Aneri Jambusaria [18:18] Markets.

Matt Enyedi [18:18] The mention markets. Yeah, the mention markets are whether or not something or someone will be mentioned during a speech or a conversation. Oh, wow. Yeah. Wow. And the person who’s speaking or the person who’s running the, uh, teleprompter can make that decision as to whether that mention happens. And so these markets are highly, highly manipulable.

Aneri Jambusaria [18:36] Totally. I love the mention markets, too, exactly for that reason of, like, the mention markets are knowable. There are speech writers, there are assistants, there are teleprompter managers. There’s also the person delivering the speech. There’s so many different individuals who could manipulate the outcome of it. I also heard a story of even during a Q&A, having people who have bet on the prediction markets also submit questions in the Q&A trying to get the speaker to say certain words that they have already bet on, right? So there’s definitely ways of manipulating that. I also think there’s, like, a flip side of this, which is when you think about the, even take the mention markets, for example, you hear stories about groups of people getting together to watch speeches that they wouldn’t have otherwise gotten together to watch, because it’s kind of become fun for them, right? Yeah. Because they’ve made a game out of it, right?

Matt Enyedi [19:20] It’s like love is blind.  You know,

Aneri Jambusaria [19:24] That’s my favorite. I

Taryn Huget [19:25] I mean, I watched the full Padres game. I was invested, right?

Matt Enyedi [19:28] Yeah.  Bringing people together through losing money. What a wonderful concept.  I

Taryn Huget [19:33] Know. Good, bad. Somewhere in between. Prediction markets definitely can’t be ignored. But I would have to say, this isn’t just a Gen Z, younger generation thing anymore. We’re seeing institutions enter this space in a meaningful way. What was once viewed as gaming or entertainment is increasingly being seen as a market opportunity.

Aneri Jambusaria [19:53] For sure. And look, I’ll get back to where we started, which is talking about speculation that’s been around for a long time, has really been dominated by institutional investors. And they see the prediction markets in the new and broader opportunities there are to create market signals as an opportunity. And so hedge funds are now very, very prevalent on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. And look, there’s a couple sizes. On one hand, right, the more assets and the more people you have engaged in a marketplace like this, the higher quality the signal is going to be over time. I would just say though, for consumers and, and specifically retail investors, part of the reason why retail investors haven’t participated in futures markets in the past, it’s really hard for us to have better information about the future price of corn than a hedge fund. Yeah. And I’d say now with the prediction markets, we’re kind of in the same situation where it’s pretty - I gotta be

Matt Enyedi [20:41] Honest with you guys. I’m pretty good at predicting corn prices. Oh, yeah. Something I’ve been dabbling with for a few years. Yeah. Interesting. Orvill Reddenbacher, we’ve been working together forever. You’re,

Aneri Jambusaria [20:50] You’re peeling through the almanac and getting all the weather farms.

Taryn Huget [20:53] So many fun facts that we

Matt Enyedi [20:54] Learned. I’m an interesting guy. Yeah.

Aneri Jambusaria [20:57] But no, I, I do think as, you know, institutional investors play a bigger and bigger role in the prediction markets, I do expect it’s gonna become even harder, even for that small population of consumers that have been successful in the prediction markets to continue to be successful there.

Matt Enyedi [21:12] Well, I wanna dig deeper into that wealth management and the retail investor. You think about wealth management coming to this space. It’s all over the place. If I look at just a couple of the folks out there, you got Robinhood saying, “We’re all in. Anything you want, you can predict.” And on the opposite side, you got Vanguard saying, “No cash flows. We are not gonna bring this into our marketplace. That is not investing.” And then you got firms like Schwab who have come out and said, “We’ll play in the prediction markets, but only as it pertains to our markets, like the S&P 500.” And so I’m curious, Aneri, where does LPL stand and how might we make these or not make these available to our advisors and institutions and the customers they serve?

Aneri Jambusaria [21:48] Yeah. So I’ll just start by reminding folks, we have a vision to be the best firm in wealth management. And so that means if there’s a new or emerging investment technique that matters to consumers, it matters to us, especially if it can create portfolio utility, right? And I’d say, like for me right now, definitely there’s a ton of demand and interest amongst consumers for the prediction market. So I think, you know, for folks who are advisors who are listening to this podcast, I do think it’s something that’s worth talking about with your clients and hearing their perspectives, learning about how they’re using it. And then look, I think we have some work to do as an industry to make sure that the prediction markets are harnessed in a way that creates portfolio utility. And so what you’re hearing me say is that prediction markets aren’t all bad and they’re not all good, but we have some work to do in conjunction with regulators to make sure that it’s pointed in the most constructive ways that add value for individual investors.

Taryn Huget [22:38] Let’s dig in on regulation because regulation is gonna play a big role in where this goes next. So how is the regulatory environment evolving and what are some of the implications for our advisors and our advisors’ clients?

Aneri Jambusaria [22:52] Yeah. So there’s a couple things that are happening right now. One, there’s a little bit of a food fight going on right now between the CFTC - Yeah. And the gambling commissions. It is in part because there’s a lot of revenue potential specifically on more of the entertainment value associated with prediction markets, right? The other question mark here is around just the broader administration’s perspective. In the last few years, we’ve had both a Democratic and a Republican administration, and they’ve taken very different views on the prediction markets and wanted to put in very different controls around how the prediction markets are managed. So I think those are kind of a set of, of areas of uncertainty for us. Again, if I were to, to kind of share a future world that I think would be really beneficial for wealth management and our investors, it would be where there was a clear framework for the prediction markets around which types of bets are for entertainment and which ones create portfolio value, and maybe some unique rules to govern each of them that really helps to protect consumers, but also to reap some of the benefits of each.

Taryn Huget [23:47] All right. Well, I do have to say whether our clients like it or not, this is gonna definitely be part of the conversation because younger investors are paying attention and clients’ kids are gonna be asking about it. And I’d say the easy answer for many of them might be to miss it as gambling or speculation, but that doesn’t necessarily make the conversation go away. So how should our advisors start to talk about predictive markets with their clients?

Aneri Jambusaria [24:11] Start to just lean in with curiosity, get to know it a little bit, and then talk to your clients. And even those maybe who don’t bring it up to you proactively, ask them about it and hear how they’re using it. Matt, you alluded to something earlier about kind of the next gen and how part of this could be based around just some frustrations that consumers may have around where they sit today with their financial security versus where they’d like to be. Yep. And it’s really important to kind of get to some of those root causes and root behaviors that, that might exist that you might not be aware of. And then part of this, again, our role as financial professionals is to help educate our clients in terms of what are the best and the most successful ways for them to be able to reach their goals. So it could be a really good opportunity to engage. I also think it’s a good opportunity to think about the predictive markets as a valuable information source. Again, like - Yeah. I don’t think about it as a primary information source, but it can be a helpful secondary information source, especially as you’re trying to get some signals that can help you consider how you wanna position portfolios and make sense of what’s happening in the world.

Matt Enyedi [25:09] I do think it’s really important, and, and Aneri, we’ve talked about this, is when talking to maybe the next generation or the next generation after that, I think it’s gonna be an easy out to dismiss them. And you’re gonna have some Gen Z, Gen Alpha come and tell you, “Hey, I’ve got 30% of my money or all of my money in these prediction markets.” And I think there’s a real risk that the financial advisor dismisses it and says, “You’re doing it wrong. Let me tell you how to do it.” And they lose the opportunity to work and help with that person.

Aneri Jambusaria [25:40] 100%. And again, I think part of it is like really uncovering what’s behind the, you know, putting all your money in the prediction markets. Like in addition to kind of wanting to make some outside success, another reason that we hear from consumers about in terms of why they’re so heavily engaged on it, it’s a way for them to express their perspectives, their view of the world, right? And it’s, and it’s also a way for them to engage in community with their friends. And those are all things that are, you know, again, generally really productive things that we’d want individuals to have. And as an advisor, you should know what matters to your clients, right, and the ways that they wanna express their views. And look, part of this is discovering maybe there’s other ways for them to express their views that can enable them to meet their long-term wealth goals as well.

Matt Enyedi [26:20] Love it. Hey, this has been such a fun conversation, Aneri. Uh, I predicted it would be, and I was right. You were right. Um, I wanna do a little more predicting with you as part of our wrap up and our if you could question. It’s a two-parter. All right. If you could predict whether or not the Steelers find their way to the playoffs this year - Isn’t there a Steelers one? Oh she’s a huge Steelers

Aneri Jambusaria [26:42] Fan. I did not know it. But you have not seen the terrible towel. There’s

Matt Enyedi [26:44] A terrible towel hanging in our office. Love

Aneri Jambusaria [26:46] This. Um, look, the Steelers have very consistently made it to the playoffs, and so yeah, I’d bet on it.

Matt Enyedi [26:53] Would you bet on it or would you - I, I

Aneri Jambusaria [26:54] I would, I would bet on it.

Matt Enyedi [26:55] That’s illegal, Aneri.

Aneri Jambusaria [26:57] Actually, Matt, gambling is illegal. I can bet on it in the prediction market. There you go.

Matt Enyedi [27:02] There you go. Okay, last one. Regarding the terminology. As we continue down this prediction lane, and you kind of laid out a vision that you had, you mentioned how there’s this battle going on between the gaming commission and the regulators of the financial markets, both wanting in on this for various reasons. And if you were to make your prediction on who’s the winner, does this go the way of Wall Street or the way of Steve Wynn? What are the predictions for where we go next with the prediction markets?

Aneri Jambusaria [27:25] I’d like it to go more towards the side of the financial markets, but I’d also like us to take the best of both worlds. So I’d like us to take the marketplace for information that is possible in that portfolio utility that we see becoming very apparent and impactful. Yep. And then pair that with the sense of community that you get from a day at the roulette table.  And then I think you’ve got something really powerful that’s actually better than what we have today.

Matt Enyedi [27:51] Are we gonna do a watch party for the Oscars this year, you guys?

Aneri Jambusaria [27:53] You better. You

Matt Enyedi [27:54] Too. I can’t wait. Aneri, thanks for being with us

Aneri Jambusaria [27:57] Today. Thank you, Aneri. Thank you both. Appreciate it. Bye.


Sources

  1. Federal Reserve Board, “Financial Accounts of the United States — Z.1,” Table L.108, September 11, 2026 release.
  2. Pew Research Center, “Trading Volume on Prediction Markets Has Soared in Recent Months,” May 27, 2026.
  3. Carolyn Silverman, Nathaniel Popper, and Marie Patricio, “Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains,” Bloomberg, April 28, 2026.
  4. Slickcharts, “S&P 500 Total Returns by Year Since 1926,” 2026. * 

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