Merger Arbitrage Rebound

Jina Yoon | Chief Alternative Investment Strategist

Last Updated:

Additional content provided by Michael McClain, AVP, Research.

Following a lackluster 2024 and significant geopolitical uncertainty heading into 2025, merger arbitrage funds have surprisingly been one of the best-performing alternative investment strategies this year. Through the end of September, the HFRI Event Driven: Merger Arbitrage Index has gained 8.2%, its best three-quarter start to a year since 2021.

Strategy Overview

Traditionally, merger arbitrage strategies invest in public firms that have recently been targeted for a merger or acquisition. In cash deals, they invest long in the target stock and hold the investment as the closing date approaches. In deals including stock as part of the acquisition, in addition to the long position in the target firm, they may also sell short the acquiring firm’s stock.

In a typical deal, the target’s stock price immediately rises to a level close to the acquisition price, but will still trade at a discount. Merger arbitrage strategies aim to capture this discount, which is representative of the transaction eventually closing. Large discounts typically imply that there are hurdles to overcome, while a smaller discount assumes a high probability of closure.

For managers looking to add value, a large universe of deals to select from to avoid investment crowding and an overweight to transactions with attractive risk/reward profiles are keys to success.

2025 Environment

Global merger and acquisition volume has been on a steady decline since peaking in 2021 at above $5 trillion. As we started 2025, given the new administration's pro-deal stance and lighter regulatory oversight, expectations were for deal volume to increase from those low levels but remain in check due to ongoing tariff negotiations. Transactions requiring global regulatory approval were also expected to remain limited because of tariffs. With this background in mind, managers have still delivered attractive returns during such a conflicting market environment.

LPL Research Analysis

While the performance of merger arbitrage strategies has been a positive surprise this year, especially considering ongoing geopolitical and tariff risks, we believe much of the success has been a result of announced deal spreads slowly tightening due to the strength in equity markets. Going forward, we don’t believe investors can rely on equity market strength to be the sole driver of gains. Rather, we need further trade clarification, in addition to a larger selection of transactions to avoid crowding from market participants. In the event this occurs, LPL Research would be more constructive on merger arbitrage strategies looking ahead.

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Jina Yoon

Jina Yoon is LPL Financial’s Chief Alternative Investment Strategist. Her investment career includes over 15 years of experience.