Bull Markets That Last Four Years Typically Last Five

Happy Anniversary bull market! October 12 marked the fourth anniversary of the bull market that began at the S&P 500’s closing low of 3,577 on October 12, 2022. Four years later, the index has more than doubled, an impressive run considering everything investors have endured along the way. The gain in the first four years on a price basis was 118%.

When we celebrated this bull market’s third birthday a year ago, we noted that history suggested the advance probably had more room to run. Well, history delivered. In the year ending October 12, 2026, the S&P 500 gained an impressive 19.2%.

That resilience is notable considering the formidable wall of worry markets have climbed. Investors have worked through monetary tightening, tariff uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, an oil-price shock, higher Treasury yields, and persistent questions about whether enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has gone too far. Despite those challenges, the S&P 500 recently traded near record highs.

The fundamental backdrop has helped. Corporate profits remain strong, while the AI infrastructure buildout continues to support spending on semiconductors, memory, data centers, power, and related equipment.

So, what does history tell us about the four-year-old bull market’s chances at making it to five?

Alive at Five! Four-Year-Old Bull Markets Have Historically Continued Another Year

Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg, 10/13/26
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Note: Only S&P 500 bull markets that made it through a fourth year are shown, including the current bull market.

As shown in the “Alive at Five! Four-Year-Old Bull Markets Have Historically Continued Another Year” chart, history offers a positive signal. Looking at the bull markets in the accompanying chart that survived five full years, the average S&P 500 gain during year five was 20.7%. Results varied quite a bit, but year five was positive in each instance. Particularly strong fifth years came in the 1982 and 1990 bull markets, with gains of 36.6% and 24.4%, respectively, while the 1974 bull produced a more modest 6.8% gain in its fifth year. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The one exception is the 1957 bull market that made it to year four but did not last five (five out of six isn’t bad). Several factors contributed to the end of that bull market in 1961, including President Kennedy’s strained relationship with the corporate sector, particularly U.S. Steel. Elevated valuations and waning investor confidence have also been cited as contributing factors, making this selloff unusual in that recession, tightening monetary policy, or a financial crisis were not causes.

Looking ahead, of course we would happily take anything close to another 20% gain over the next 12 months, which is possible, but we certainly would not predict it. We would say this. If rates and oil come down meaningfully and AI delivers on its promise, the next 12 months may be very rewarding for investors.

The most important takeaway from this analysis is that bull markets don’t typically die of old age. Something kills them — typically a recession or financial crisis, neither of which seem likely in the coming year. With capital investment in AI infrastructure set to increase in 2027 and expected to drive another year of strong earnings growth, and consumers maintaining spending on the back of a very positive wealth effect and limited interest rate sensitivity, a recession is probably not in the cards for 2027. That bodes well for this bull market in its quest to celebrate its fifth anniversary one year from now.