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2020 is an election year, and history shows that the US economy has had major bearings on presidential election. How stocks and the economy are performing prior to the election may forecast the winner.
The US economic recovery has picked up, and we expect Treasury yields to rise later in 2020, but structural pressure from the Fed, pandemic-driven demand, and inflation may limit the increase. Investors seeking income are in a tough spot.
Stocks staged perhaps the strongest rally in history—a more than 44% gain for the S&P 500 Index from March 23 through June 8—before pulling back about 3% late last week. With so much economic healing ahead of us and a still-uncertain path for COVID-19, the key question for investors is whether stocks are pricing in an overly optimistic scenario for the recovery in economic activity and corporate profits.
The strongest 50-day rally in the S&P 500 in over 70 years has sent a signal that the economic recovery is gaining steam and may look more like a “V” than a “U,” a square root, checkmark, or swoosh. We assess the probabilities of these various scenarios for recovery and reiterate our 2020 economic growth forecasts.
Stocks rallied to close May on the positive side. There’s still a disconnect between the market and the economy, while reopening optimism and massive stimulus compete with COVID-19 concerns and US-China tensions.
First quarter earnings season offered a mixed bag. Corporate America produced solid results outside of the COVID-19 pandemic trouble spots, while 2020 earnings estimates have plunged. A return to “normal” earnings could be two years or more away.
Stocks fell last week, and we think more near-term downside may be possible. We take a look at likely catalysts, including high stock valuations, Fed Chair Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions.
Stocks tend to lead the economy, and they’ve had a historic run recently. Both a rebound and some equity weakness may be likely. Stocks may also take a break as we enter the historically worst six months of the year.
Financial news provided the highlights in a week with the S&P 500 Index ending about flat. Headlines featured estimates of Q1 2020 GDP, a top-tier economic report, major central bank meetings, and the busiest week of earnings season.
Negative oil prices have dominated headlines recently. While few of us speculate on commodity futures, the price of oil is an important variable. We explain what happened and where oil prices could be headed ultimately.
COVID-19 travel restrictions and lockdowns have impacted corporate earnings results dramatically. As earnings season begins, we believe there will be winners and some challenges, the bar may be set too low, and forecasting has included some guesswork.
Stock market volatility remains high as investors closely track COVID-19. We’re watching for signs that investors can start thinking about a resumption of economic activity and an economic rebound. In the meantime, stocks may revisit the March lows.
The COVID-19 impact to our economy and workers has been devastating, but we’ve seen some positive developments from monetary and fiscal stimulus. We update our Road to Recovery Playbook on signs of a major low in equities.
The US economy has been impacted in a number of ways, and we are likely in recession now. What began as a crisis of confidence has transitioned to a business crisis, but positive steps are being taken.
COVID-19 has sent equity markets into bear market territory. But once the market finds its bottom, it may provide attractive buying opportunities. To guide long-term investors, LPL Research has compiled a Road to Recovery Playbook.