LPL Financial Publishes LPL Research's Midyear Outlook 2023

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – July 11, 2023 – LPL Financial LLC today released the firm’s Midyear Outlook 2023 report, in which LPL’s Research team discusses the work that lies ahead in the second half of 2023. The report includes insights and analysis of the economy and markets, and is available in an interactive digital version and as a downloadable PDF. 

“Ultimately, how rate volatility resolves itself will be a big driver for markets,” said LPL Chief Investment Officer and Director of Research Marc Zabicki. “The LPL Research team doesn’t have a crystal ball, but there are two things we know. The insights in this report will help position investors, along with guidance from their financial advisor, to achieve their goals. Second, our seasoned team of experts will be by your side, providing actionable insights as the rest of the year unfolds.”

Among the key forecasts and topics discussed in the Midyear Outlook 2023 report: 

• Economy: The baseline forecast is that the domestic economy slides into recession in the late half of 2023 as consumer demand cools, especially for services. If job growth cools and the unemployment rate rises, consumers will likely experience declining disposable income, which could be the impetus for a recession as consumers pull back on spending. But in the near term, consumers are still unleashing pent-up demand for services.
• Stocks: In the first half of 2023, progress was made toward better balance as inflation fell and interest rates stabilized. However, macroeconomic risks remain top of mind as a potential recession looms. Earnings are likely to decline this year, but solid revenue growth and stable profit margins may help limit the magnitude of any decline.
• Bonds: After the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in decades from the Fed, short-term interest rates are at levels last seen in the early 2000s. At the currently elevated levels, the risk is that these rates won’t last, and upon maturity, investors will have to reinvest proceeds at lower rates. 

“The economy and markets made progress toward regaining balance in the first half of 2023, but more work lies ahead. Reclaiming that state of balance helps us feel grounded, rooted in stability and the comfort of the familiar,” added Zabicki. “From a financial perspective, it can mean a return to lower prices on housing, groceries and more. It can also translate into greater spending on experiences like dining out. Put the two trends together, and we could see a return to the more typical 70:30 spending mix of services to goods.”

About LPL Financial

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: LPLA) was founded on the principle that the firm should work for the advisor, and not the other way around. Today, LPL is a leader in the markets we serve, supporting more than 21,000 financial advisors, including advisors at approximately 1,100 enterprises and at approximately 500 registered investment advisor (RIA) firms nationwide. We are steadfast in our commitment to the advisor-mediated advice model and the belief that Americans deserve access to personalized guidance from a financial advisor. At LPL, independence means that advisors have the freedom they deserve to choose the business model, services, and technology resources that allow them to run their perfect practice. And they have the freedom to manage their client relationships because they know their clients best. Simply put, we take care of our advisors, so they can take care of their clients.

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Throughout this communication, the terms “financial advisors” and “advisors” are used to refer to registered representatives and/or investment advisor representatives affiliated with LPL Financial.

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Important Disclosures

Please see the LPL Financial Research Midyear Outlook 2023 for additional description and disclosure.

The opinions, statements and forecasts presented herein are general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Any forward-looking statements including the economic forecasts may not develop as predicted and are subject to change based on future market and other conditions.

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