Wrapping Up 2025 With Forecast Hits and Misses, Kicking Off 2026 With Hot Bond Topics

Jeff Buchbinder (00:00):

<Silence> Hello everyone, and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here with my friend and colleague, Lawrence Gillum. Happy New Year to everyone. Lawrence, our first Market Signals of 2026, and you, my friend, get to be in the hot seat. How are you?

Lawrence Gillum (00:17):

Quite the honor, and I'm excited to be back and happy New Year to you as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (00:23):

Yeah, I wouldn't just put anybody on here, Lawrence, you earned it with some of your great appearances in 2025. So it's not just a random rotation that's driven by the dates, I assure you. So but actually in all seriousness, I'm glad that you're on because there's actually some really important stuff going on in the bond land. And that's bullet point number two here on our agenda. Hot bond market topics, AI financing and EM debt. These were not hot topics a few months ago, but they certainly are now, you probably all know why the financing of the AI buildout matters, but maybe you don't necessarily know why EM debt is a hot topic. Today it is Monday, January 5, 2026. As we're recording this, I have not yet said 2025 by mistake, and I'm quite proud of that. The rest of the agenda Santa Claus, a no-show.

Jeff Buchbinder (01:21):

We'll do a quick market recap, and actually we're really close to breakeven as we're recording this in terms of the Santa Claus rally period. It's the last five days of the year, trading days, and the first two trading days of the next year. So that is January 2, January 5. We came in today down about 0.7% during that period. And as we are recording this, we were up by about that amount. I'll get another check of that as we're talking so we can maybe celebrate, Lawrence, or maybe not. The rest of our agenda, what we got right and wrong in 2025, that is the Weekly Market Commentary for this week. We didn't just talk stocks and bonds, actually, there's a little bit of an economy forecast recap as well that Jeffrey Roach helped us with. And then of course, the preview of the week ahead as always.

Jeff Buchbinder (02:17):

And I think the jobs report is really all that matters at least in terms of the economic calendar, because we have the ISM this week too, but it's really not that market moving typically, or certainly not in recent months. All right, so start with the market recap. By the way, we are literally right at the flat line on our Santa Claus Rally period, <laugh> as we speak. We're up 0.7% as we're recording this right after lunch on Monday. So here's your recap. This is five trading day recap, and stocks are down about 1%. So of course, that was the hole that Santa Claus dug for us that we might be getting ourselves out of.

Jeff Buchbinder (03:00):

It's slow news week, obviously, when you're wrapping up the year. But we did have Tesla stock down quite a bit on weak auto deliveries. So you see consumer discretionary here down about three point a half percent. So that was newsworthy. And then in tech we had software weakness, although that was partially offset by chip strength, in particular, the memory names, the you know, Microns of the world. That group was the best performing group of 2025 and continuing strength here recently, you know, just over the last few days. So tech actually was you know, pretty close to the market over the last five days, despite the weakness in software, in particular, Microsoft. And then energy's worth highlighting. I mean, it's possible that the market was sniffing out something in Venezuela because oil prices didn't necessarily move a whole lot over the four, you know, trading days, four trading days of last week. But energy was up big, up 3%. So that was the winner of last week, along with international the emerging market index up over 2%. And in Asia, it's really been AI names that have been driving the gains. Of course, EM index is mostly Asia. So Lawrence, turning to your page. What happened in the bond market. I know there were some Fed minutes, maybe not a whole lot else influencing the bond market, but we did get a little bit of a sell-off.

Lawrence Gillum (04:33):

Yeah, but it's been a pretty range bound rate environment actually over the last couple months, trading around, call it 4.10 to 4.20 on the 10-year. So, I kind of look at this as just maybe some day-to-day noise, not a lot really moving markets these days. We'll get some additional economic data later this week that could be influential. But you know, I think it's really just kind of just some kind of a short term volatility. I will point out though that last year was a pretty good year for fixed income, as we've talked about a couple times on this program. The Ag up about seven, 7% so out kicking its coupon returns providing a little price appreciation as well. Don't know that how much of that we will get in 2026 but we'll definitely take the gains that we got last year, kind of as it relates to just near term returns.

Lawrence Gillum (05:27):

Again, last week was mixed, Ag down about 20 basis points, high-yield bonds up about 20 basis points, preferreds 40 basis points, et cetera. I think, or we think that we're looking at a kind of a five to seven-ish percent type return out of core fixed income again, probably five to 6% out of core fixed income again in 2026. But we'll have to have, we'll have to see how this plays out. There's a lot of data between now and the end of the year, of course to see kind of how this plays out. But we're cautiously optimistic about 2026 for fixed income.

Jeff Buchbinder (06:02):

Yeah, I mean, if you just take your traditional 60/40 or just 50/50, putting a 7% bond return, if that's what you got together with an 18% roughly stock return, that's you know, that's kind of like your, what, low teens kind of return for a blended portfolio. That is not bad at all. We will absolutely take it. So here you see the commodities currencies. I think precious metals is particularly interesting. We got a really sharp sell-off in silver last week. Higher margin requirements, I think were part of the problem, but then when you don't have a lot of folks trading, news can really move markets more than it would otherwise. The uptrends in gold and silver are still intact, and they're rallying back today. The I mean, the price of crude oil, it's up today on the Venezuela News, which we'll get to more in a minute here. But 58 bucks is still cheap. Venezuela is not going to be a big oil price mover in the U.S. in the near term but certainly that news is helping it today.

Jeff Buchbinder (07:20):

All right, here's your S&P 500 chart. This, I just priced this after the rally this morning. So we're 6,919, which is really interesting because that's pretty much right at record highs. You see here, it's kind of hard to see. But looking at this chart, we've bumped up against this level a few times now and have not been able to break through. Adam Turnquist tells me that if we break through this kind range of six, we'll call it 6,920 to 6,930 range the technically based target on the S&P would be 7,270 from there. That is a nice move if we can get it, it could potentially take a couple months, but that's what the that's a technical translation of this chart pattern if we do break through those record highs. So still a nice trend on the downside if we do get a pullback.

Jeff Buchbinder (08:21):

6,809 is the a 100- day let's see, I'm sorry, the 50-day. That would probably be a nice place for the S&P to land if we do get a little bit of a dip, and you've got quite a bit of room between here and the 200-day, 6,298. So yeah, if we get a bigger downdraft then maybe we look at the 6,300 to 6,350 range as a place where you could land and you know, potentially introduce a buying opportunity. So that's that. Let's move on to hot topics in bond land and Lawrence, I think it's fair to say that you know, AI financing was kind of all the rage last month, and now this month it's all about Venezuela and what it means for the EM debt market, at least in terms of market impact. So we'll start with the, a chart of, I guess this is Venezuelan sovereign debt.

Lawrence Gillum (09:22):

It is, yes. So in a minute, we're going to talk about what we, our hits and misses for 2025. I pointed out as our miss in the fixed income world, that we didn't invest in emerging market debt, the best performer within the fixed income complex in 2025, up over 10% last year. We didn't invest in that market. We brought in some outside counsel. We, our models suggested it was a good place to be. We couldn't get comfortable with just the volatility in that market. The index, depending on the index you're looking at, it comprises about 70 different countries all with their own idiosyncratic risks that we decided not to invest in it. And this is a chart of the Venezuelan two year government bond. This is the price and you can see just how volatile this type of environment is.

Lawrence Gillum (10:14):

This space is. After trading in the 20s and 30s over the last couple years after what took place over the past weekend the bond price has shot up by about 27% in one single day. This is not something that we tend to see in the fixed income markets that often. So, you know, I think this speaks to our, kind of our conservative nature. I think particularly within the fixed income markets, that we're not going to invest in these types of things that can potentially go up by 27% or go down by 27% in a single day because it is a very volatile asset class and one that we, you know, decided not to participate in last year. It's going to, it looks like it's going to potentially hurt us again, at least to start the year this year by not investing in this because of this type of move. But it just goes, it just speaks to the fact that this is a very volatile asset class, and you never know what you're going to get out of this type of particularly the beta given the 70 countries that make up the index. So this kind of is a chart that this speaks to our miss for last year as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (11:27):

Yeah, certainly a reminder of how volatile some of the debt can be in these countries that are caught up in we'll call it geopolitical crossfire. So Venezuela, of course, the big oil producer, I think a little less than a million barrels a day now, but that puts them, I think in the top 20 at least. So it's a meaningful amount of oil, but certainly nothing like what they used to produce. Yeah. Anyway, that's why that's part of the problem here, and that is why because of the oil emphasis on oil in the Venezuelan economy you're seeing that some of these oil stocks that are Venezuelan plays jump so much, right? The services players in particular that could potentially, eventually get business in Venezuela. But it's an oil market. That's really the only way that it matters for the global economy is in terms of you know, American companies potentially being able to get in there and invest in oil infrastructure and start producing it, you know, what normal levels would be for a country with that kind of oil reserve.

Jeff Buchbinder (12:33):

You know, we're probably talking about double or triple what they're doing right now. So there is opportunity long term, but short term, probably not so much. But anyway this chart, Lawrence just shows you the relationship between oil and Treasury. So even though oil's not moving a ton today, and it's still low, it's important to keep this relationship in mind, right?

Lawrence Gillum (12:55):

That's right. Yeah. So this is just a reminder that the long-term Treasury yields, in particular, tend to follow oil prices tend to follow inflation expectations. Oil prices are a big part of those inflation expectations. So if, and this is a big, if, if Venezuela does get back to producing large amounts of oil, that should be beneficial to yields here in the U.S. as well. We should see the oil prices come down, which should allow Treasury yields to come down as well. So again, to your point, it's not going to be a near term thing. This is going to be many, many, many years in the future, but that could be a catalyst for as to why we see lower yields in the future. If this does work out with Venezuela reproducing the amount of oil it produced, you know, 20, 25 years ago, say.

Jeff Buchbinder (13:48):

Yeah, peak was over 3 million barrels a day. I believe that was in the late 90s. So there's a lot of opportunity there no doubt. So let's turn to the other hot topic in bond land, which is AI cap or AI financing of the massive amount of capex. So you, this chart here kind of puts it into perspective, I think, which can be helpful for our listeners.

Lawrence Gillum (14:14):

Yeah, for sure. And I mean, so the AI trade isn't just an equity trade. There are some opportunities within the fixed income markets as well. We're not making recommendations but you know, there is going to be a lot of supply coming to markets over the next couple years. So this is a chart I got from Morgan Stanley, I think they did a good job of outlining how much total capex is necessary over the next couple years, how that's broken out by cash flows, which is going to be about half of the necessary financing for the capex over the next couple years. But there is going to be issuance in the investment-grade bond market, the private credit market, securitized market. These are all opportunities that investors can take advantage of, particularly in the investment-grade corporate bond market.

Lawrence Gillum (15:00):

Where you can see on this chart, there's going to be about $200 billion of additional corporate debt that's going to be brought to market over the course of the next couple years. And these are your high-quality issuers, right? Your Amazons, your Metas, your Alphabets. These are the ones that have come to market recently, or at least over the last couple months. And you've seen demand for this paper, it's been remarkable how much demand there's been despite getting very little additional compensation over Treasury securities you're still seeing these issues oversubscribed by, you know, five, six times. So there is going to be some opportunity in 2026 to take advantage of the build out within the AI trade, not just on the equity side, but here in the fixed income world as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (15:49):

Yeah, this is our biggest risk probably for the equity market in particular in 2026, is can this AI build out be financed and will the market be confident that not only can those dollars come through, but will they be productive investments? And that'll obviously take more than just next year to figure out, but this is a very, very important story to follow. And you know, it's going to take, I guess, cooperation between the tech players and the financial markets to get this done.

Lawrence Gillum (16:23):

What's particularly interesting too is the amount of debt going into the private credit market. You know, that's not something that we do a lot of within our models, but $800 billion in private credit over the next couple years I think is interesting. It's a market that is, you know, as it's called private, it's pretty opaque but does allow investors that can take advantage of the private credit landscape. It does provide additional compensation above what you're going to get in the public markets. So for example, I saw that like a Microsoft just had a private credit opportunity and it was priced at about a percent and a half over what their paying in the public market. So there is ways to again, take advantage of this AI boom in the fixed income markets. Private credit is an area that is something that, you know, might want to look into if it makes sense for your portfolios.

Jeff Buchbinder (17:22):

You bond guys always want to get in on the equity market fun, so here's your chance.

Lawrence Gillum (17:26):

That's right,

Jeff Buchbinder (17:27):

<Laugh>, there it is. So last chart from you, at least in this section is tech and I guess tech and fixed income didn't do as well as equities, I think that's fair to say, right?

Lawrence Gillum (17:41):

It didn't do as well as equities and it didn't do as well as the broader corporate landscape. So this is just the option adjusted spread. So these are your spreads above what you get in the Treasury market. That white line is the corporate bond index broadly that what is it, yellow line there at the bottom, that's the tech spreads to above Treasuries. And since really September tech spreads have widened more so than the broader index. There used to be about a, call it a 20 basis point difference between the broader corporate index spreads and tech spreads. So you were getting less compensation to own tech than you were just own the broader market that has really converged as of late, and now there's only about a one to two basis point difference between the two. So if you have confidence in the tech space, if you have confidence in these companies to pay back their debt, which you know, that shouldn't be a problem, at least in the near term, you're getting paid a lot more now than you were back in September. So again, not recommendations, but there are some opportunities and you're starting to get paid to take on this additional supply that's coming to market as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (18:52):

Yeah, related to the point you just made about AI financing, the question some people are asking is, does the business model of AI in particular open AI, does the business model have the potential to generate enough cash flows to complete the build out and, you know, obviously generate returns from that build out? So I think you have some of those doubts creeping into these tech credit spreads, right? Because the, I mean, this is where Oracle is, for example. The vendors that are going to be building this out are certainly a lot of them are certainly in the tech sector. So this doesn't shock me. AI on the stock side and bond side pricing in a lot of optimism, I think it's fair to say. So thanks for that, Lawrence. Let's go to kind of our hits and misses of 2025.

Jeff Buchbinder (19:48):

We like to do this every year. Go back and look at what we got right and what we got wrong. I think this year it's fair to say we got more right than wrong, although there's a mix <laugh>, maybe a healthy mix. You're never going to get everything right. So we'll start before I get into the growth value trade, just start with the fact that it was kind of hard to stay fully invested in equities last year, especially in April and May, around the tariff tantrum. And we did that, thankfully, we maintained a tactical neutral position in equities all year, which implies fully invested equity position, even though it was very tempting to sell during that period, given the uncertainty and the significant amount of tariffs that, you know, we feared were going to have to be paid, of course, we now know they're not going to be paid anywhere near what was feared.

Jeff Buchbinder (20:43):

In fact, not even really near half of what was feared, frankly. We're below half and probably a good bit below half at this point. So I think that's number one as what we'll call a win. Number two here, large growth outpaced large value, large growth, also outpaced small and mid value. And we leaned in that direction all year, favoring large growth at the expense of smid value. I just put large value on here. Large value only outperformed or only underperformed by about 3% last year, but smid value underperformed by even more. So this was a good trade at the start of the year. We liked the fact that the economy was slowing and earnings growth and growth was much stronger than in value. That's where a lot of the AI earnings growth is. And so that combination, growth becoming scarce in a slowing economy, it did.

Jeff Buchbinder (21:38):

slow last year, not a lot, but it did slow, growth becoming more scarce, and the earnings coming through from AI, that combination we really liked at the start of the year, and that proved to be a good call. Our other good call last year, or we'll call it the best call maybe of last year, was to overweight communication services all year. Of course, that's an AI play with all of the digital media contained in that sector, you know, in particular Alphabet and Meta. So comm services was the best performing sector last year of all 11 S&P 500 sectors. It was up over 33%. Not only was that much better than market, but it was much better than tech, which was second at up about 24. So that was definitely a win. Underweighting real estate was a win. We liked the cyclical sectors more than the defensive sectors.

Jeff Buchbinder (22:31):

We liked the AI trade more than we liked income. And you know, that ended up being the right positioning for the year. I guess some misses here. I mean, industrials, we, it was okay in the first half. We overweighted it in the first half and it worked, but we missed the outperformance in the second half. Same with financials. Our timing wasn't great, so we kind of missed some strength in financials, even though we were overweight at a couple of periods actually within the year I think, and then utilities was a miss too. We underweighted utilities during a period of strength, and I think the learning there is that we just underestimated the AI effects in utilities. The power demand is astronomical, and some of the utilities that were supplying that power to the hyperscalers really benefited from that last year.

Jeff Buchbinder (23:29):

So that was another miss. We were only underweight for a short period of time but certainly that was a miss. And then last miss, this is EM and EAFE, so developed international and emerging markets equities relative to the S&P 500. And you could see here we were neutral international all year, but we had an underweight on emerging markets at the beginning of the year, and that's where all the outperformance in EM came was really mostly Q1. In fact, after that, the rest of the year, EM didn't really do much. So missing out on that outperformance before we upgraded it to neutral was a miss. It's kind of similar to the EM debt conversation, Lawrence, that we just had. We were just frankly worried about geopolitics in some of these countries, particularly China, heading into the tariff implementation of tariffs, you know, really beginning in March and April.

Jeff Buchbinder (24:31):

Those worries proved to be kind of overdone. And EM took off anticipating, not just anticipating lower tariffs, but also becoming part of the AI trade. Because that first quarter was when we had the DeepSeek news and it became clear to the markets that China was a legitimate player in AI. So those two factors that certainly we didn't anticipate, along with the dollar weakness, drove a really strong start to EM. So now, as looking forward in 2026 for neutral EM and neutral EAFE or developed international and are waiting for opportunities to potentially get more global when we think that the opportunity looks a little bit brighter. So let's go to bonds here, Lawrence, what were your wins and losses or hits and misses from 2025?

Lawrence Gillum (25:22):

Sure. So hits and misses. Like I said, last year was a pretty good year for a lot of fixed income markets, so it's kind of hard to have a miss outside of one of omission, like we talked about with EMD. But as relates to hits there was a couple things that we, I think that we did pretty well with last year, and that was our rate call, one was our rate call that despite the Fed cutting rates in in 2025 our view was that the long end of the curve was probably going to stay elevated, particularly relative to history, during these types of rate cutting campaigns, because of what we we're showing on the screen is the return of that Treasury term premium. I think we started talking about this late 24 and saying that this was going to be a big driver, big upward driver in Treasury yields in 2025.

Lawrence Gillum (26:07):

And it turned out to be true. Just as a reminder, the Treasury term premium is just that additional compensation to own longer maturity Treasury securities. You should get paid more to own a 10-year Treasury yield or 10-year Treasury security versus a two-year Treasury security. That hasn't always been the case, particularly over the last couple decades, the last decade anyway. And, but that has come back to the four here lately. I think given debt and deficit concerns, we're likely going to continue to have upward pressure on long-term bond yields, because of things like this Treasury term premium. It was one of the reasons why we did we didn't make any sort of aggressive duration calls. We were neutral duration for most of the year, if not all of the year because of the expectation of the return of this Treasury term premium.

Lawrence Gillum (26:55):

Another thing that I think that we did a pretty good job with is our call that we like securitized over investment-grade corporates, mortgage-backed securities in particular versus investment-grade corporate bonds. Mortgage-backed securities did outperform with a lot less volatility in 2025. So that worked out in our favor. And then finally, just the, you know, we pushed back back in April after the narrative came up, that the Treasury or Treasury market has lost its safe haven status, its lost of American exceptionalism. We wrote about that in some of our monthly missives and you know, our view was that Treasury securities will remain safe haven assets. The Treasury market is still the deepest and most liquid market in the world. And that helped the U.S. markets outperform non-U.S. developed markets last year as well.

Lawrence Gillum (27:53):

So despite the calls for you know, a repatriation of assets out of the U.S. into these non-U.S. developed markets, we didn't really see a lot of that. And it did allow the U.S. markets, the fixed income markets, to outperform these non-U.S. developed markets. 2025 was the best year for Treasury securities since 2020. Notable in 2020 was that global pandemic where we saw yields fall pretty meaningfully because of the expectation of rate cuts. We didn't have that this year, which means that we got a lot of returns out of income, which is what, you know, we also said we were going to see in 2025 is that income returns were going to dominate total returns. That's what we did see last year, and I think that we're going to see a lot of that again in 2026 as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (28:46):

Yeah. So Lawrence, in that kind of environment, you know, maybe we get another couple Fed rate cuts. Do you think that the yield curve kind of stays at the same shape it's in and that can help us maybe stay around 4% on the 10-year yield?

Lawrence Gillum (29:00):

Yeah, I think that we'll probably continue to see the difference between two years and 10-year Treasury securities widen. We're at 70 basis points now. So there's a 70 basis point difference between the two-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield. I think we're going to continue to see that probably 75 to 85 basis points in 2026. So as the Fed continues to cut rates this year, the two-year Treasury yield will likely fall. Whereas the 10-year Treasury yield will likely probably stay around 4% as well. So our 2026 10-year forecast is 3.75 to 4.25. So that really, I think kind of captures the continued steepening of the curve.

Jeff Buchbinder (29:45):

So another decent year for bonds if we're right.

Lawrence Gillum (29:48):

If we're right, yes.

Jeff Buchbinder (29:49):

Very good. Well, I'm counting on you because if we're not right, I'll blame you. So <laugh>, that wasn't very nice to do to my co-host, my first co-host of the year. But there you go. So no, I'm actually with you. I'll take some heat if it's not a decent year for bonds, I think it'll be a decent year for bonds as well. So let's turn to the week ahead and then we'll wrap. So I am excited to announce that we actually have a normal jobs report, the first one in a while because we were talking government shutdown, government shutdown, government shutdown, <laugh>, right, for the last few months, that is behind us. And so here you see, I put a star, I brought the stars back, put a star by the non farm payrolls expectation, 55,000. So, I mean, Lawrence, there's been a lot of attention about, I mean, Powell brought attention to it about how these job numbers may be overstated, but do you think this is, you know, maybe kind of a flat job market, maybe tiny bit of job growth going on right now? Is that fair?

Lawrence Gillum (30:52):

Yeah, I think that's fair. That's good. That's kind of been our view. Was it a no hire or no fire type labor market. So, you know, our expectation is that we're going to see potentially positive job growth, but not a lot of positive job growth right, there are going to be in these you know, these smaller numbers. So I think that is fair. You know, it is comforting to get some economic data again, that's real. I will caution that I think January 31 is another one of those days that we could potentially see another government shutdown. So I'm throwing that out there just to kind of warn viewers and investors that we'll take this good news while we can, but it may not last forever.

Jeff Buchbinder (31:38):

Oh, I hope they get away around that. But we'll see, it's less likely to happen than the last one. Even if you go back in time before the last one happened, and try to compare that to this, it looks like there's a, it's an easier pathway to get there. So we're not going to necessarily predict a shutdown, but it absolutely is a risk. But still good, like you said, Lawrence, to get data that's current and that'll certainly make the Fed meeting at the end of January a little more comfortable. Maybe not necessarily to cut rates, but just taking out that extra layer of uncertainty that we've had to deal with here over the last couple of meetings. We did get ISM, I didn't show it on the slide, but it's really not that meaningful, I don't think, prices paid was pretty stable, and we continue to have a little bit below 50, a little bit of a lackluster manufacturing environment.

Jeff Buchbinder (32:27):

I'm hopeful that the stimulus, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the tax incentives for businesses will help stimulate more manufacturing activity. But right now it's really just building data centers. And that's largely it. I guess from the job front, the JOLTS data will be interesting, you know, job openings, labor turnover to see how, you know, what's happening to the amount of openings that we have. And then ISM services, which really captures a bigger piece of the economy than manufacturing. That'll be interesting. 52.4 is consensus. That's pretty close to where we were last month, remember, that's a private survey not affected by the shutdown. And so we've got, you know, consistent data over the last few months from that. It's been over 52 I believe for the last several months. But that is a little bit lower than where we were say during the summer.

Jeff Buchbinder (33:22):

So services economy expanding but not at a rapid pace by any stretch. So economy slowing. You saw this hopefully by now in the 2026 Outlook that we put out a few weeks ago, that we do expect the economy to continue to slow here over the first half, but then pick back up again in the second half of 2026 and still end up with a 2% growth year which is, you know, pretty good growth for this economy and this the labor market. So there's your week ahead. We'll talk earnings season next week. This is not the start of earnings season. It is next week. The 13th is when we get JP Morgan results. So that'll be kind of the unofficial kickoff. So for those wondering though, consensus is 8% right now for year over earnings growth in S&P 500 profits.

Jeff Buchbinder (34:13):

That is typically too low, almost always too low. The average beat rate or average beat in percentage points has been, you know, four to 6% over the last several quarters. Even a little higher than that, actually call it five to eight. If we do even the low end of where we've been in recent quarters, you're talking about another double-digit earnings growth quarter. And frankly, there's a good chance we'll grow earnings double-digits every quarter next year. It's a little early to make that prediction. In fact, that's actually a little above our earnings forecast from the 2026 Outlook. But it is certainly possible that we will continue this streak. I think this quarter would make the third in a row. It's possible that that streak goes to seven plus. We'll have to see. So stay tuned for that next week. But for now, thank you Lawrence, appreciate you joining Market Signals to kick off 2026, did take a week off last week. So glad to be back with you. Hopefully everybody had a really nice holiday season. Happy New Year to all take care and we will see you next week on LPL Market Signals. Take care.