LPL Research Economic Outlook 2026

Jeff Buchbinder (00:00):

<Silence> Hello everyone, and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here with my friend and colleague, Dr. Jeffrey Roach. Jeff, we are going to talk about your outlook for the economy in 2026. We left you out last week because we went through the stock market outlook bond market outlook a little bit on commodities and currencies with Lawrence and Adam. So it is your turn now, so you are in the spotlight. Very good. Of course, we just put out our Outlook for 2026 called the Policy Engine. So, Jeff, if you walk through your outlook for the economy and you don't mention policy we might have to start over and rerecord, <laugh>, just to warn you. So, here are the important disclosures and our agenda. So, very simple agenda. Mostly going to be Jeff talking about the economy. We'll do a quick market recap. AI skepticism, and the Fed were kind of in a tug of war last week.

Jeff Buchbinder (01:02):

I guess you could say that the AI skepticism won because the market was down a little bit last week, at least measured by the S&P 500. Next, Jeff's economic outlook titled "The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same". I think that's really the case for stocks too, but we're not going to talk too much about 2026 stock market outlook. You got that last week. And then lastly, the week ahead. Of course, there is a lot of data coming out this week that we did not get on time because of the government shutdown. So a lot of catching up to do. But after this week, we'll pretty well be caught up. I think it's here to say. So starting with the market recap, I think the AI skepticism is probably the you know, the biggest reason for the market decline last week. You see that in the tech sector. So while the S&P 500 was down 0.6%, the tech sector was down over two, certainly a lot of AI exposure and communication services down 3.2% for the week.

Jeff Buchbinder (02:07):

Actually, you could argue that comm services more than half AI, or certainly more than half digital media. So that was a laggard. And then on the other side we had a pretty good week from materials, actually materials got a boost from fertilizer names, which we don't talk about very much, but certainly some disruption in Russia, Ukraine, a big agricultural region pushed fertilizer prices up. So that helped materials. And then financials. Financials, I think like the Fed message, Jeff. So even though again, broadly markets were down last week, I think the market reaction to the Fed was generally pretty positive last week. So all in all, not too bad, but a little bit of weakness in the S&P. We did also hear a lot about rotation, right? So when you have the AI theme sell off and you have small caps work, which they did last week up 1.2% on the Russell two, and you have value work, of course, there's not a lot of AI in the value index. Top 200 value names up 0.6% versus the 200 growth index down 1.7. So in value works, that's certainly evidence of rotation. So, you know, we'll see how long that goes. We do think we will see some of that in 2026, but it's not necessarily how we want to be positioned right now. So Jeff, over to you. Anything else you want to highlight here in terms of market action last week? Maybe interpretation of the Fed or any of the data that we did get?

Jeff Roach (03:49):

Right. So it's been a little bit of this back and forth, you know, so the Fed had some interesting revisions to their forecasts. So in addition to the decision on the setting of the range for fed funds rate, they also released their latest compilations of all the individual presidents and board members forecasts for growth, for inflation, for unemployment, for long run fed funds. And we call that the Summary of Economic Projections. So it's a compilation of all those forecasts. Very interesting, because since last time, on net, folks have revised up their growth forecasts, revised down their inflation forecasts and haven't really changed much unemployment and the fed funds rate. Now granted, perhaps a little less likelihood of three cuts in 2026, maybe just two, but it's quite a Goldilocks scenario when you say inflation's down and growth is up.

Jeff Roach (04:57):

My shorthand, you know, quick take from that is this, the Fed and pretty much everybody around that table on the Federal Open Market Committee, they are all banking on an uptick in productivity. That is the secret elixir that that I like to say it's the elixir for more growth and less inflation. So in addition to that, I think that's where you have a little bit of that push/pull. I think it was a little bit challenging. Investors didn't really know what to do with the extra buying in short-term Treasuries. And then of course, you have some interesting things going on, particularly in Japan. So upper right corner is where our global equity benchmarks are. And I like tracking as well as you do, Jeff, the EAFE, that's got a pretty big weight for Japan. And so, this week's going to be a big one for the Bank of Japan, as they most likely continue to tighten up policy that's been unusually low for a very long time as their inflation metrics tighten up a little bit, their central bank can respond accordingly. So that's it.

Jeff Buchbinder (06:13):

Yeah, of course the EAFE has a good chunk of Japan, but it has an even bigger chunk of Europe. So we're watching ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks. Could be a little bit of a peace lift there potentially, although that would maybe put downward pressure on the commodities out of there, like I just mentioned with fertilizer names in Europe. So yeah, good week for EAFE. A lot of that was weaker dollar strong yen certainly. But hey, we'll take it for globally diversified investors you got what you want when the U.S. market is under pressure a little bit. You offset that with some gains in your international investments. So turning to bonds, you know, not really not a great week. <Laugh> in the bond market, not really what you want to see. With certainly some losses in the broad bond market index here, the Agg down 0.2%. I think, Jeff, this goes to the deficit concerns and the independence of the Fed concerns, right? That it put a little bit of upward pressure on the long end. What do you think is going on with the long end? Is it that, is it something else?

Jeff Roach (07:26):

Well, there's certainly some interesting stories that are going to bubbling, potentially bubbling up to the surface. And that is this, you know, most people were interpreting the conversations with Trump and Kevin Hassett as Kevin Hassett being the leader of the pack, most likely the successor to Jay Powell. And then over the last couple of days, there was some murmurings about Kevin Warsh. He's the other one on the short list. And so a little bit of just uncertainty on, okay, well, who is going to follow Chair Powell, and is Chair Powell going to go away a little bit earlier? His term expires in early 2026. It's possible that he resigns before his term expires. That's probably not going to happen. I don't think that that is the most likely scenario. But I think there's just a little bit of tension there, trying to figure out, you know, who indeed is going to be chairing the committee and how are they going to do with a committee that's got a lot of differing opinions.

Jeff Roach (08:31):

And we saw that from last week's statement. You have folks voting for a 25 basis point cut, and then you're having people voting for something more aggressive than that, and others saying, hey, I don't want any change in rates. So quite a number of differing views on the committee. My take is this, maybe that's a good thing, right? You don't want groupthink. You never want groupthink. And the challenge, of course, is when you got differing opinions you got to effectively manage that and come to a conclusion and a decision. So whoever that new chair is going to be, they have their work cut out for them.

Jeff Buchbinder (09:10):

Yeah, no doubt. I think driving a consensus, this meeting was a little easier for Powell than it was in October <laugh>, but it just seemed a little more convicted in what he was doing. But yeah, Fed watching still is interesting now and it's going to be interesting next year as well. So I think the other interesting thing to point out here is oil prices are falling. Certainly, we have a little bit of a supply demand imbalance, a little too much supply, demand's, okay, maybe it gets better next year, but it's not necessarily booming and you end up with weakness in oil. Now, Jeff, that's good for inflation. In fact, that's the most important commodity for inflation. In fact, premium at the pump up here in Boston's, close to three bucks now.

Jeff Roach (10:01):

Yeah, certainly. Yeah, certainly this, you know, the tension there with OPEC trying to manage supply. I would, I would expect in the coming year, a little more conversation about trying to provide some level of support for WTI crude. You know, if you're in the 57 range, that is very low. If it dips, you know, closer to 55, no doubt OPEC will start, you know, talking up a little bit <laugh> on trying to manage supply relative to demand.

Jeff Buchbinder (10:35):

Mm-Hmm <affirmative>. Yeah, we talked commodities last week, but the precious metals run continues gold nearing an all-time high today, Monday afternoon, December 15, as we're recording this we think you stick with the precious metals trade, a lot of central bank buying still. You've got potential for weakness in the dollar. The kind of stable, low interest rate environment that we expect is conducive. So we're sticking with our precious metals. Here's your S&P 500 chart. Before we get to the economy, pretty much flat as we're recording this Monday. So we're still around 6,820, 6,830 on the S&P 500 that is right at the bottom of this rising channel. So it'll be interesting to see if that channel can hold, the I mean if you, if you want to look at support below that, if we pull back you're talking about maybe 6,625 on the hundred day.

Jeff Buchbinder (11:40):

But yeah, hopefully we can hold that channel. If you go to the upper end of that channel, you're talking about a really nice number on the S&P, that'll take time. Maybe 7,500, 74, 7,500 if you, if it takes time and you go back to this upper end of this channel, which of course keeps rising as time passes and the stock market goes higher. We also have improving breadth here. About 64% of stocks are above the 200-day moving average. A little bit higher percentage of that above the 20-day moving average. So you have improving and decent breadth on a short term and a longer-term basis. So it's pretty healthy spot here, maybe to start a Santa Claus rally because we are now in the best couple of week period, or one of the best couple of week periods of the year seasonally for the stock market. So went through that quick, but we want to hear from you, Jeff, on the economy. So, I'll hand this over to you again, economic outlook and the Outlook 2026 from LPL is titled, "The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same. So not only are you going to talk policy, but you're going to talk about some things that maybe are similar next year to 2025. So take it away, Jeff.

Jeff Roach (12:56):

Yeah. So this chart right here is not in the Outlook. But what I wanted to do, just for our listeners, is rather than just, you know, talk through what you can see on the lpl.com website with our 2026 annual Outlook publication, is some of the things that were kind of under discussion and consideration behind the scenes, as it were. So, what was happening in our views on forecast on growth, inflation, Fed policy, unemployment? And, you know, you look at this list and I wanted to just share the five headwinds as well as the five tailwinds. And I think that explains a lot of what our expectations are. And it explains a little bit of this subtitle about, you know, the more things change, more things stay the same. Because when you look at the, the headwinds and the tailwinds, a lot of them could describe 2024, 2025.

Jeff Roach (13:53):

Some could describe years previous, like Trump 1.0, when you're thinking about tariffs and trade. Now granted, I think the top tailwind with fiscal stimulus policy support, that's clearly new. We haven't had you know, the opportunity to discuss what, you know, what is in this One Big Beautiful Bill Act, how it's going to impact businesses, particularly in the new year. But what we wanted to do is this, in addition to just laying out the five headwinds, five tailwinds, I also want to talk briefly about what to look at, what metrics should you look at not only from the public sector, but private sector metrics. Because who knows, we might have another lapse in government appropriations, Jeff, it's probably the first time we started talking about this. We just finished one round. It's possible we might have another round.

Jeff Roach (14:50):

And it's really important for investors to understand, okay, how do you keep track? So slowing labor market, ADP, Intuit, a number of those two metrics, conference board, also some important metrics to help understand that top headwind, if indeed the BLS <laugh> loses funding. Persistent inflation pressure is a headwind. That's where you get the Adobe Online inflation numbers. You can track also the data coming from ISM services, that prices paid component, that's helpful. Tariffs and trade policy, of course, that's running just the effective average tariff rate. You know, we expect it to ease up even more. And I think, as we said, you know, a couple months ago, if we're in the 15 and lower rate for your average effective tariff rate, the economy can handle that. That's not recessionary. Fragmented consumer, that's going to be a little more challenging.

Jeff Roach (15:51):

But you see data and insights from Beige Book for that one. So ongoing metrics, track that Beige Book, and then small business struggles, that's NFIB kind of data. So there's your headwinds, your tailwinds includes the idea that we're probably going to have as consumers, some bigger than expected tax returns, as well as some supportive tax policy for capex for businesses. Investment productivity gains, again, this is kind of a Beige Book thing. By the way, just make sure our listeners understand, you know, Beige Book is something that's extremely valuable because it's a compilation of businesses expectations about where trajectory for business is going in all 12 districts of the Federal Reserve system. So when you look at that Beige Book, you get a good snapshot on, you know, Midwest, East Coast, West Coast Gulf region, and straight from the horse's mouth.

Jeff Roach (16:58):

This is not you know, massaged data. This is straight from business leaders. Supply dynamics, that's something that, you know, we can track from Fed New York Supply Chain Pressure Index. It's very, very important. But that's improving. So that's certainly a tailwind, interest rates and then balance sheet. So that's behind the scenes, kind of how the sausage is made, if you will, on the 2026 Outlook. But I wanted to put that out there for our listeners as a summary in anticipation of what I'll show next. So there you have, that was a quick rundown. Perhaps it could have been done even quicker. I don't know. Jeff, what do you think? What do you say?

Jeff Buchbinder (17:39):

I think it was just right. So before you go on, I will know, I believe the consumer tax refund boost or tax boost in general is going to be like $130 billion for next year. Is that consistent with what you've heard? Because that's a pretty big number?

Jeff Roach (17:58):

Yeah, it's something that'll move the needle when you think about growth, you think about consumers demand for both services and goods, you know, so this is something that's going to show up with, you know, auto sales numbers, retail traffic, certainly demand for some of the discretionary items like restaurants, leisure and hospitality in general. So hotel, hotel demand. So this is definitely something that will kind of kick up growth expectations. And maybe our growth numbers are even a little bit too soft. I think that's fair to say, depending on how quickly folks will use those extra dollars for spending or if they use it to pay off some of the debt. Now, clearly, some of the lower income households do have some debt burdens. It's possible that that might be that stimulus might be an opportunity to manage credit card balances, et cetera.

Jeff Roach (18:58):

So this chart, you see the blue and copper. So basically you just look at that copper side. We still are waiting for Q3 GDP numbers. That's because we had that lapse in appropriations for the BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis. So even though here we are, you know, mid-December, we're still waiting for the official Q3 numbers, but that's, you know, water under the bridge. That's not going to be interesting. The interesting part is the trajectory going into 2026, and you see we, the economy will most likely grow at the 2%, if not a little bit higher, year over year in aggregate for 2026. That's a pretty decent run rate. Certainly good for businesses.

Jeff Buchbinder (19:47):

Stimulus certainly going to help, AI spend, going to help maybe a little drag from trade.

Jeff Roach (19:53):

Yeah, that's exactly right. And who knows maybe you know, depending how the trade numbers play out, it's possible as we saw in earlier parts of 2025, you know, when you have a shift away from imports toward domestic production, that means your net export number is not going to be as negative. Meaning when you import things, those things aren't made in our economy. So that's subtracting from the headline GDP number because GDP stands for gross domestic product. This is things, goods, and services produced in the United States. You get less imports, you're going to have less of a drag on GDP growth. Now shift to AI spend, construction on data centers, all that kind of stuff that's related to research and development. It's a pretty small slice of the pie, but in terms of the growth rates, we're starting to see some phenomenal contributions to growth. And I think that's where we can see some of that quarter on quarter GDP growth, annualized numbers. We'll continue to have a pretty nice boost from intellectual property. So that's what I got bolded there, right in the middle of the list, intellectual property, as I said that's software. it's research and development, and it's those things that are related to what we're talking about with AI and corresponding AI build out.

Jeff Buchbinder (21:20):

And that should lead to more productivity.

Jeff Roach (21:24):

That and that's right. So the productivity number as I highlighted that can give you, hypothetically, it can give you better growth numbers, and at the same time, provide an environment where inflation pressures are actually easing up. So I'm showing in this chart that in the near term, we're probably going to have to deal with some uncomfortable inflation numbers. So blue line is from the Institute of Supply Management, ISM, and it's basically projecting what I think is truly what's happening where you have this a little bit of a resurgence on pricing pressures, not necessarily, or solely from tariffs, because we've heard from businesses that they're not passing along as much as, as they could, but near term pressure on inflation, we'll get a latest read on CPI later this week from November, but really by the time you're March, April, May of next year, I think we're going to be past the worst of the inflation numbers. So that's going to give you that Goldilocks feel, where the economy's growing businesses are responding to really kind of a probusiness environment. And at the same time, inflation rates are finally easing up, that allows the Fed to ease their policy without recession risks. That's certainly going to be good news for risk assets.

Jeff Buchbinder (22:51):

Yeah, so inflation is a risk, but we don't think one of the top risks on the list, at least not for equities. So turning to mortgage rates. So, I mean, this ties into the whole affordability thing, that's mm-hmm <affirmative>. been getting a lot of attention lately, Jeff, do you think that mortgage rates could come down even if the 10-year doesn't move all that much?

Jeff Roach (23:16):

Well, as things kind of stabilize on the fiscal side, the tax side, trade policy side, monetary policy side, speaking of policy.

Jeff Buchbinder (23:26):

It's a lot of sides.

Jeff Roach (23:27):

You have, I think you have a setup for mortgage rates to fall below 6% in 2026. So, I think that's very helpful for the end user. I think that's something you're thinking, okay, that's great. We talk about Fed policy, you're talking about rates that might not hit, you know, Joe Smith on the street. So, and at the Main Street level, I think it's the right thing to expect for mortgage rates and some of these other retail rates to ease up a little bit. Auto loans, for example, another retail rate that's very, very important for the average consumer. And, you know, our expectations might be, you know, a few basis points below 6% by the end of the year, even sooner than by the end of the year of 2026, when, I mean by the end of the year. And we've already seen that trend start from even from earlier this year, where it's a good a hundred basis point lower, it's a full 1% below, and that's, I'm measuring here, the copper columns here is the average. So granted, depending where you are in the country, it's going to be a little bit different. But this is a bank rate number, 30-year fixed rate average. And we're certainly seeing that downward trend, that should continue in 2026.

Jeff Buchbinder (24:51):

I saw a headline today actually, that Fannie and Freddie are ramping up purchases in mortgage-backed securities. So, I think it's clear that the Trump administration may be led by Treasury Secretary Bessent are trying to lower the spread, right, between mortgage rate and Treasuries any way they can. Maybe with more MBS purchases, that's one way they can do it, I guess focusing on T-bills, right? So they don't have to issue a lot of long-term Treasuries is another way that they're trying to, you know, limit the increases, potential increases in mortgage rates. But as you said, Jeff, it's not, this isn't fed funds rate. This is 10-year, right? That's right. So they really, rate cuts might help. Generally, they do, but that's not a guarantee by any stretch that more rate cuts are going to result in lower mortgage rates.

Jeff Roach (25:52):

That's right. You got to be watching the 10-year Treasury, and that certainly has a lot more of global impact and where that thing's trading demand for Treasuries from international investors, sovereign wealth funds, global pension funds, things of that nature.

Jeff Buchbinder (26:09):

Absolutely. So I get asked that a lot, even though I'm an equity guy, <laugh>, you know, when I talk to LPL advisors and clients, where do you think mortgage rates are going? I think I agree with you. I think good chance they go lower, and we're in a midterm election year too, which even increases the incentive for the White House to try to get those rates down and help with affordability. All right, here we go to forecasts. You took the bold step of even putting some 2027 forecasts in here.

Jeff Roach (26:42):

Yeah. And I think, you know, part of this is, you know, perhaps some of the 2027 might seep in earlier in 2026, hence the 2% rate might be a little bit higher if things go in our favor, the U.S. I think a couple things in addition to, you know, above trend growth because of some of the fiscal support that we're going to see in the United States in the near term, I think it's also helpful to remember, you know, some of these other countries that have been in recession, particularly thinking about Germany last year, and even Japan. You can expect a little bit of growth coming out of these large global economies. Japan, of course, Eurozone is where that's picking up, German growth forecast. But I think you're seeing pretty much an improvement across the globe.

Jeff Roach (27:34):

It's not just in the U.S. Granted, there's still those headwinds. Hence, it's really important to set the stage with everything I said with that chart at the outset on the headwinds. But we do think that we're, you know, we're going to most likely skirt recession in most major economies around the globe. Little bit of risk there in the property sector and consumer space, consumers in China. That's certainly a hot topic. But outside of that there's some improvements going on in most of the other economies that had really, really sluggish growth say in the last 18 months or so. So expect more of the same for the U.S. but maybe a downshift in growth. And we have seen that, economy grew like gangbusters in 2024, a little bit softer in 2025. We're expecting maybe a slight softening again in 2026. And then after that is when things might re-accelerate a bit. Hence the importance for looking at the 2027 column as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (28:47):

Yeah. By the time you get to 2027, I think it's fair to say that we're going to have a lot of AI boost, more AI adoption over the next couple of years. Mm-Hmm <affirmative>. Should be able to, I mean, we're not only going to get the boost from capex, but we're going to get a boost from the productivity from adopters of AI. Who knows that that 2.2% by the time we get there could even be a little bit conservative. We'll have to see. The stimulus does wear off though, right? It's sort of a glide path down from the bump in 2026. I think 2026 is the biggest stimulus bump from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but it'll still be supportive in 2027 as well. So pretty good economic outlook, 2% GDP in 2026. I mean, we could do a little better, but I think Jeff, from listening to you, it sounds like your bias will be a little better rather than a little worse, but we'll have to wait and see, still no recession, certainly a good backdrop for risk assets, including equities.

Jeff Roach (29:48):

That's right.

Jeff Buchbinder (29:50):

And good pretty good growth around the rest of the world. Not as strong in Europe and Japan as is in the U.S. but still for those regions, given their headwinds, that's pretty decent growth too. So we're going to continue on the economics, Jeff, and go to the week ahead here, which includes some really important data, and it's actually pretty close to current. So what should investors be watching this week?

Jeff Roach (30:18):

Yeah, so a lot of catching up to do, I like the title. So we have some retail sales numbers, we have unemployment, job growth, inflation. I mean, you, it runs the gamut this week. I would say, of all of the items, and it's a busy week, the top two clearly have to be the updates on employment, the official employment stats that's coming out on the 16th. And then of course we have the latest CPI numbers coming out later in the week, and that's for November. Now what's a little bit unusual is that we're going to have, I would say a month and a half of reporting for the payroll numbers. So you'll have November payrolls for both surveys, the BLS, which is Bureau of Labor Statistics, surveys a bunch of households, thousands and thousands actually, as well as surveys from the establishment side of things.

Jeff Roach (31:18):

So firms and households, you'll get a full report for November, for October we're going to get just the establishment survey, which means we're not going to get an unemployment rate estimate for October, but we will for November. That's okay. I don't think it's going to surprise investors that much. We do expect an uptick in unemployment. I have 4.6% forecast going into 2026, so this is November data, December, January, probably a little bit more pressure. If you look at some of the private sector data, that does suggest that payroll growth has come to a little bit of a stall, the stall speed here of eking out maybe a little bit of a positive payroll growth, but nowhere near where we were, say just six months ago or so. Again, that's not a surprise because it's supporting what we're seeing out of the Fed, meaning let's cut those rates as the Fed has done, because job growth seems to be cooling.

Jeff Roach (32:20):

We care about that, of course, because if job growth cools, that means by extension wages, personal income growth, cools and hence less powder in the keg, as it were to spend on both goods and services on the consumer side. So, no surprise there, we should expect a slowdown. We just don't want a, you know, to see a massive surprise and a slowdown. And then in terms of the inflation numbers, just to really underscoring what I said just earlier, little bit of you know, we got a month or two or maybe three months of some tough inflation numbers. We don't think that those, that rate will stick. We do think by the time we get to the end of Q1 next year, we'll be approaching a much more attractive inflation rate, but a 3%, three handle as they say, on annual rate of inflation, not good, good, good 1% above Fed target, but I think if we have a little bit of patience, we'll see inflation cool by the end of Q1.

Jeff Buchbinder (33:30):

But probably not at the Fed's target until 2027, right?

Jeff Roach (33:34):

That's right. So I have inflation approaching 2.5% by the end of next year. Again, that's still two and a half is greater than two. And that's going to be one of the frustrating pieces of the pie that they have to deal with, whoever the new chair will be of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Jeff Buchbinder (33:56):

So, as you know, Jeff, Powell thinks that job growth is being overstated in the payroll numbers. So to me, acknowledging that, even though Powell's not going to be there much longer, tells me we're probably closer to two cuts next year than one, right? The dot plots are saying one, the fed funds rate the fed funds market's saying two, is that fair? How do you interpret that?

Jeff Roach (34:24):

Yeah, I think policy makers understand that when you look at conference board data and housing data, construction data, some of the other ISM employment data, it's all pointing toward a more dramatic slowdown in hiring than what the official data is telling us. So, one group's, right and one group's wrong. And I think Chair Powell is right to say, hey, we think it's overstating it. We trust the private sector data a little bit better, and it's telling us the hirings are slowing down. And I think that's the right response to how I read the data.

Jeff Buchbinder (35:10):

Well, yeah, the good news is that'll help cool inflation. And, you know, the bad news, I guess, is that you're going to have a little bit of downward pressure on consumer spending, although offset by the stimulus and the tax refunds that we mentioned. So that's right. Still a pretty decent outlook. Just a little bit of a cool down which at this stage of the economic cycle is normal. Thanks so much, Jeff, for walking through the economic outlook from LPL Research for 2026. You made my job real easy this week. I didn't have to talk much, which is good because my voice isn't a hundred percent there after getting over a little bit of a cough lately. But thanks for, thanks for joining LPL Market Signals. Thanks to all of you for listening. We probably going to move away a little bit from the 2026 Outlook stuff next week and get back to maybe more current stuff. But we'll strike a balance as we get closer to the holidays. We'll be here for the next couple weeks and then we're going to take the last week of the year off. So looking forward to seeing you next week. Thanks again, Jeff, for joining LPL Market Signals. We will see you next time. Take care everybody. Alright, bye-bye.