Call It a Comeback as Stocks Finish November Strong

Jeffrey Buchbinder (00:00):

<Silence> Hello everyone and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here with my friend and colleague Adam Turnquist back from the Thanksgiving holiday. It is December 1st, 2025 as we're recording this. Hopefully everybody, everybody had a nice Thanksgiving. Certainly. We did here. How about you, Adam? How was the Thanksgiving with, with the young kids in your house? It might not have been as calm.

Adam Turnquist (00:24):

It was not calm. We hosted Thanksgiving here. I think we had over 40 people come over, so it was a busy, hectic few days just getting ready and then of course, cleaning up. We had a lot of fun. It was good. We got some snow over the weekend, so it actually feels like winter now, although that requires more snow blowing, more shoveling. So it was, I was glad to get back to work. It feels like a little bit of a break from all of the physical activity and cleaning over the weekend. <Laugh>,

Jeffrey Buchbinder (00:51):

So your vacation can start now. Yeah, so enjoy it. Yeah, we just toasted my in-laws. It was a pretty small gathering and very relaxing. In fact, we didn't even cook a Turkey. We just, we just got catered in and it was it was about as relaxing of a Thanksgiving as, as we have had. So thankful for that and thankful for, for all of you for being in regular market signal signals. Listeners. so while you're looking at the disclosures here, I'll give you the quick agenda. So we just put out our Weekly Market Commentary for this week. It's on lpl.com. So two weeks ago we wrote kind of a sneak preview for the outlook for 2026, which comes out a week from Tuesday as you're listening to this, a week from today, I'll say. And so two weeks ago we did a preview.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (01:49):

We continued the preview this time with sort of under the radar keys to next year. Not really giving away the outlook itself, but just telling you what topics that we hit. So we started two weeks ago with economy, stocks, bonds, high level, and this outlook sneak peak part two you know, goes into some other areas, let's say geopolitics, commodities, the election, midterm elections alts, things like that. So here you see agenda, we'll, we'll do a quick recap of, of last week and last month. Both, well, last month wasn't particularly strong, but certainly it was positive and finished strong because we had a a nice gain last week. And then chart check. Adam, you titled your section, call it a comeback. I just alluded to that we had to rally furiously to get to a positive November for the S&P 500.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (02:53):

Here's your under the radar keys to 2026, and then for week ahead, there is some data this week that matters that we're going to get that's timely, but there's not a lot of it because a lot of it's been delayed and a lot of it's still stale. So my ahead preview, I titled Just shop till you Drop <laugh> because it is holiday shopping season. All right, so market recap, the this look, this is a five day look, right? So the S&P was only up 3.7 only last week, Adam, but 4.8 over the last five days. That is a really strong five day period. What do you think were the key drivers?

Adam Turnquist (03:36):

I think part of the story for last week, we came in oversold. We had some fed commentary leaning more dovish for December. So there was a big repricing of rate cut expectations for December. Not to mention Kevin Hassett being the likely nod for the fed chair. We'll get maybe an announcement this month on that. That's exactly what the market wanted to hear. That rate cuts are still on the table for December and maybe a little bit more of a dovish outlook from the Fed. So I think that was part of the story. There was some indigestion, we'll call it from the AI enthusiasm that seemed to reengage a little bit, even though there's a lot of dispersion within those mega cap companies. That was really, I think, the big driver risk appetite coming back last week in a big way. S and p up five straight days, as you mentioned, a seven month winning streak now coming into December, buying pressure also pretty broad. It wasn't just a handful of names doing the heavy lifting as we've seen for the last couple months. I think nearly 90% of S&P 500 stocks finished higher breadth on the month. Also slightly positive. So a good sign, at least for now going into December.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (04:48):

Yeah, absolutely. I, I know you have a seasonal chart a little bit later, but typically this period is strong when you go into it strong. And obviously this has been a great year. Total return for the S&P 500 through Friday, 17.8%. We're down a little bit here as we're recording this Monday afternoon, but, but not much. So call it 17 point half. We'll take it. I think at least looking at last week, alphabet chairs have been very, very strong. They're up almost 70% year to date. But last week that was a big reason why the communication services sector did so well. Tech did not do as well. It did fine. You know, it's kind of like a marginal underperformer. But some of that AI scrutiny and concerns about Nvidia maybe losing some share to Google and AI chips.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (05:48):

Cause you alluded to it, Adam, a little bit of dispersion in the Mag Seven. So you know that weight on tech just a touch, but certainly hard to complain about 4.4% over the last five days in terms of looking at the month. Healthcare was a really strong outperformer. And then that sort of AI scrutiny showed up in terms of tech and cd, consumer discretionary, lagging, you know, a lot of tech and cd those two sectors were the worst performers for the month. Certainly the consumer lagging is, you know, reflective of an increasingly challenging consumer spending environment and not falling off a cliff. But clearly we're seeing signs of slowing job market and increasing pressures on consumer spending. So that certainly will be something to watch as we get into 2026. I guess it, you know, Adam, in terms of international markets, you know, Europe's done pretty well lately. Here you see 2.9, not as good as ESP, but 2.9% over the last five days. And you know, Japan may be falling a little bit, a little bit behind. We just talked about this before we jumped on this call that BOJ is looking like it's going to hike in well this month, right? And that's pushing yields up. Japan's, there's been some jitters in that market here recently, and certainly there's more today,

Adam Turnquist (07:22):

Right? And you have this kind of bifurcated dialogue in Japan. You have their new prime minister who's pro-growth, keeping interest rates very low. But for the Bank of Japan, when you look at inflation measures right now, it's been above their target for quite a while. That's putting pressure on the BOJ to normalize interest rates from a very low level. We had a big repricing overnight from some hawkish commentary from their Bank of Japan Governor Ueda that created a move higher in tenure. JBS or Japanese government bond yields that's pushing treasury yields higher today as well. So that's, I think just a little bit of a repricing of those hawkish rate hike expectations for next, well, I guess this month now I gotta get adjust to the calendar. Weighing a little bit on risk appetite in Japan and the market there overbought, it's had a significant rally. You can see year to date the Nikkei up 28%. So probably due for a little bit of a breather here.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (08:25):

Yeah, certainly the tough talk on Taiwan didn't, didn't help matters in that market either from the new Prime minister. So turning to bonds be a great week for bond market. Every, every bond category was up over the last five days, so Adam, I mean, certainly increasingly likely we're going to get a cut from the Fed December 10th. That is certainly a big reason why bonds were so strong. Do you see anything else? I mean, when stocks are up, credit does, well, typically anything else you're seeing in the bond market.

Adam Turnquist (09:01):

So technically, if you look at treasury yields right now, the two year, which is a good proxy for the Fed funds rates registered a marginal, higher low. So we're looking at a key support level. Two year came into that support level, didn't quite get there. I think that's really interesting context considering where the market's repricing rate cut expectations. I think I looked earlier today, almost a hundred percent odds of a, of a rate cut next month or a rate cut in December this month, I'll get there by the end of this, this new December here. But yet the two year hasn't really dropped to materially low level and it's still holding above that support level. I think maybe that suggests technically that we might not hear as dovish. A dovish outcome is maybe the market's expecting next month, even when you look at December next year, I think there's about 75% chance for four cuts between now and next December. So one next week and then an additional three. That's what the market's expecting. When you look at some of the economic data though, we'll get, we'll get through that this week. Some employment data. It'll be interesting if they can really make the case for, for future cuts and to really meet expectations from the market that have again, been drastically repriced over the last couple of weeks.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (10:24):

Yeah, we, you mentioned that we're going to get a new, potentially get a new Fed share this month, or at least know who it is. I actually heard somebody speculate that we could get it before the fed meeting on the 10th, so that would be very interesting to watch if, if it's Hassett, market's not going to be surprised he's been the favorite. Who knows. I guess that's as good a guess as any, but the market is clearly going to be paying attention to that in terms of how much ishness we get, maybe how much of a loyalist to President Trump we get maybe is another angle there. So let's go to your charts here, Adam. You know, I, I thought it was interesting, the some of the days in the past couple of weeks where we've seen good breadth. You alluded to it, right? I've been watching the S&P 500. It's done a little bit better here. And I guess that better breadth has been reflected in the percentage of four week high versus the percent of four week lows. That's not shown here, but that has ticked up nicely here as well, I've noticed,

Adam Turnquist (11:29):

Right? And when you usually get that inflection point, when you start to get new four week highs outpaced new four week lows, at least from this recovery standpoint, that's usually a good indication. Maybe the selling pressure is over. Certainly a big comeback for bulls last week. Interesting spot as well, right around the October lows 65 50, you can see the hundred day moving average there as well. That's where they stepped up right at support, pushed the index back into its prior rising price channel. So I think a good sign for the market going into year end here. Still some resistance to clear, if you look, it's kind of hard to see, but 68, 51, 68 70, that's the November highs. That's really the next level to clear. I think that would maybe wave the all clear sign of this pullback being over. And on the momentum front, the directional movement index in the middle panel triggered a buy signal.

Adam Turnquist (12:25):

So when the green line crosses above the red line, just to keep it simple, that's a buy signal, not a strong one. That a DX line in black measures trend strength, you usually want to see that above at least 20. But nonetheless, we did get an inflection in momentum and then we also had that increase in breath, and that triggered a potential swag breadth thrust, which is shown on the bottom panel. We're looking at a 10 day exponential moving average of advancing shares. So when it gets, we'll call it oversold or washed out, it crosses below 0.4 and then crosses above 0.615 in 10 days, 10 trading days, that's when you get these breadth thrusts, which have historically been a positive signal for momentum to continue in the market. We're watching that it will, the 10 day period ends on Friday. So the indicator to watch this week for stocks

Jeffrey Buchbinder (13:19):

And Adam is, is the TMI based on moving average momentum

Adam Turnquist (13:26):

As essentially it's looking at advancing shares and declining shares and positioning around that. So it's not just a moving average of momentum, but it, it's essentially looking at trend direction and then trend strength,

Jeffrey Buchbinder (13:40):

Trend direction. Okay, great. Not only does our audience probably need a little bit more color on that, but I do as well. So thank, thank you for that. Speaking of breadth thrusts here is I guess how that shapes up against prior episodes.

Adam Turnquist (13:58):

Yeah, so going back over the last, I think almost 20 years here, here's the previous breadth thrust signals that we've had average performance 12 months later for the S&P and that dashed line is 22%, all of them positive as well. We only had data going back to 2008 just for reference, we're tracking above average. You can see currently we're at the seven month mark from the April signal that fired on April 24th coming out of the liberation day lows. So maybe there's some room here for, call it a consolidation and considering we are quite a bit above average for this stretch at the seven month mark, but nonetheless a good sign. I think overall if, if we get the another breadth thrust signal by the end of this week.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (14:45):

Yeah, a lot of these periods were challenging. Certainly. you know, we had a big selloff in 2015. We had kind of, I guess 2013 sort of fiscal cliff coming out of the European debt crisis. Same with 2011. And then we know, we know 20 2009 was obviously a rough time. So I guess it's coming out of these big sharp downdrafts and then you get a major move higher that generally speaking is, is a good time to buy. I mean, I, we know that in hindsight, but I, that's how I think about this is that, is that all fair?

Adam Turnquist (15:21):

Right? And I think the simple message breadth moving in the right direction, it was getting to a pretty concerning point just over the last couple weeks. When you look at how many stocks are above their 200 day moving average, when you look at some of the new lows, we finally had a capitulation in market breath. And I think that's really what we're showing here in, in a relatively extreme way just from how oversold or washed out breadth was to the inflection point. Now, back the other way with breadth expanding

Jeffrey Buchbinder (15:49):

Makes sense. So a lot of people talk about the VIX I guess it's behaved lately after that little bit of a spike,

Adam Turnquist (15:57):

Right? So when you think about trying to identify a inflection point inequities, when is this pullback going to be over? Of course we look at price action. Are we recapturing key support levels for the S&P? I think we can check the box there. You look at momentum, we highlighted that DMI indicator crossover. We look at breadth as we just indicated with an improving backdrop. And we also look at sentiment. One way to measure that is with the CPOE volatility index or the VIX, some people call it the fear gauge. And excuse me, when you look at price action, just over the last couple weeks, we had a spike to near 30. Now that doesn't reach or cross the threshold of, of the back test that we've done anything above thirties typically where you get your capitulation point. But we did get a lower high compared to October.

Adam Turnquist (16:49):

We crossed back below the 200 day moving average. Consider that it moved to risk on, and then the fixed futures curve shown in the bottom panel moved from backwardation where the front month is more expensive than longer dated contracts. That's not normal. When you have fear running into the market, you typically see the fix the front month trade at a premium that's called backwardation. And now we switch back to contango where the front month is cheaper than the longer dated contracts. When that crossover occurs, that's another good sign of a potential or the potential that we did reach peak fear. So I, I do think that this is another signal here, maybe that this pullback period is over for the S&P 500.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (17:38):

So maybe the takeaway here is the odds favor a perhaps choppy but upward trending market between now and the end of the year.

Adam Turnquist (17:46):

I think that's fair considering just where we're at with price action and where volatility stands right now.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (17:53):

Yeah, I, in kind of putting all these pieces together, I get a little bit of a bullish <laugh> sense from you, but you know, because you think that the pullback might be over here, but certainly after such a strong run, there are a lot of reasons to think that maybe we could have another little bit of a dip before the end of the year.

Adam Turnquist (18:12):

Yeah, we haven't checked all the boxes, but we've certainly checked some important ones with just the recovery and price as I mentioned, breadth, momentum, sentiment as well. But there are some missing pieces as well, and we'll get into those with just leadership. And I think just the lack of, of retail stepping up to buy the dip over the last couple weeks. We look at a lot of the positioning data and they're, they really haven't shown up in a material way, and that's new to this recovery over the last seven months. They've been consistent buyers of US equities and they've been continuing to de-risk, surprisingly over the last couple weeks here.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (18:49):

Yeah, retail's kept this market going all year, buying every dip, but maybe they finally are starting to run out of steam. So you mentioned leadership. Here's a really cool visual of it, right? So explain what we're, what we're looking at here, Adam. I mean, I know that you want to be upper right,

Adam Turnquist (19:10):

Upper right is the place to be, and that is indicative of the sector outperforming the S&P 500 and also demonstrating better momentum. So that top right quadrant, that's the leadership quadrant, vice versa, the bottom left, that's the legging quadrant. So underperforming and worse momentum. And we track these on a weekly basis. The most recent is the filled in, call ita diamond, I guess we'll call it a diamond or a square pattern. And that's how these sectors have rotated over the last month. And you can see healthcare is now in the leadership quadrant. You have utilities moving to that top right leadership quadrant, energy, real estate, consumer staples, all improving while areas like comm services, tech, consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, you get the idea are all more in the lagging or weakening quadrant. Now this is a new composition of leadership we have not seen in seven months.

Adam Turnquist (20:10):

This is really the first real sign from a relative strength standpoint where we've actually witnessed real risk aversion taking place where there has been a rotation. And when you think about these breadth metrics that we talk about, you have to think about the composition of breath. A lot of what we've seen in breadth has been more on the defensive side. So areas like healthcare showing a lot of improving breath, even the utilities has the best breadth within the S&P 500. So you have to be a little bit careful at looking at just the headline number on breadth and think about what sectors are actually driving it. And right now for the market, it has been defensive. So for this rally to continue, I think you're going to want to see these more cyclical sectors, call it consumer discretionary financials, industrials start to show improving leadership qualities. Just haven't seen it yet.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (21:00):

Yeah. November, as I mentioned, not a good month for consumer discretionary or tech. October was decent. So this is not a long term type of sustained period of underperformance. It's, it's short term, but still something to watch and might be, we might be seeing a shift. So really, really cool graphic here. Healthcare, we've talked more about in our investment committee meetings. Not quite ready to jump in and overweight it, but certainly we're close. So that, that is a sector we'll continue to talk about as the year winds down. Alright, so I guess this is similar concept, Adam, in terms of internal trends. Is this a breadth look?

Adam Turnquist (21:51):

Right? So we break down the S&P 500 by trend, and we use a shorter term and intermediate and a longer term moving average. We have a proprietary model that we look at each moving average relative to each other to to really define trend. And when you look at the S&P 500, the internals here, the more green on your screen is the more the higher percentage of stocks in uptrends and flashback to the summer, call it July, August, you had almost 75% of the S&P in some form of an uptrend. Since then, we've had a deterioration in uptrends within the index at the expense of more downtrends. You can see in red that's just indicative of more or a higher percentage of stocks and downtrends. And right now we're running at about 56% of the S&P 500 in some form of a downtrend versus I think we have 44% up there of stocks in some form of an uptrend.

Adam Turnquist (22:48):

That's not a great combination when you think about the sustainability of a rally. So this is a really another data point that we're looking at to start to improve from here. If this is going to be a sustainable rally, especially into year end, you're going to want to see it broaden out and more stocks enter uptrend. Even when you look at the composition of trends, the stocks that are having the highest percentage by sector in terms of uptrends, you have utilities, healthcare energy will throw industrials in there. So that's a positive on the downtrends right now. Real estate comp services, staples discretionary, so a little bit more cyclical tech. Now in some form of a downtrend, that's a little bit concerning considering it's about a third of the S&P 500.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (23:41):

Really interesting. You know, everybody's talking about concentration and narrow leadership. This, it's been a conversation point all year, actually, probably two, three years. Yeah, <laugh> it feels to me like this is a very tough environment for us to rely on the Mag Seven for another leg higher because we've seen more dispersion in the Mag Seven, right? Just what we've seen recently with alphabet share doing well, and then at the expense of Nvidia, right? And you've seen a little bit of technical breakdown in meta. I don't think the chart on Microsoft looks quite as good as it maybe it did a couple months ago. So I wouldn't look for that area to lift us to a, to a big yearend rally, at least my personal opinion. It's going to take this improved breadth, more of the soldiers and less of the generals,

Adam Turnquist (24:35):

Right? I, I would agree there, especially just looking at the individual charts of the Mag Seven, to your point, the dispersion there has grown and continued to grow over the last few months with alphabet outperforming NVIDIA down considerably last month. So the, I think 25% delta between alphabet and Nvidia, just last month, only two of the Mag Seven components were higher in November. Everything else underperforming the S&P 500. So I, I do, I would agree there that it's going to take some broadening, and again, you're going to want to see it in more cyclical areas. Financials would be a good one. <Laugh> as a starting point to see some of the banks breaking out. It's not that they look terrible on the charts, they're just really in a consolidation phase, which when a market's recovering and making close to new highs, that leads to that relative underperformance that we're seeing in some of the charts here.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (25:30):

All right, it is December, so time to look at our monthly seasonals. What

Adam Turnquist (25:36):

Do you see? Right? And I think I've already had quite a few questions <laugh> on what's going to hap happen in December. Santa Claus going to show up. When you look at the progression of the S&P 500 over the last 75 years, you can see here by the trading day of the month, it, it's typically a back half story. Most of the gains start around the 11th trading day of the month. So it's typical to see some consolidation, maybe some even downside in the market until we get to the midpoint. And then you have that Santa Claus rally period, which is characterized by the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new year. Usually a very strong period for a seven day window. And then just December overall has been a pretty solid month. Up over 1% has the highest positivity rate as well for any month. So definitely a strong seasonal period. Just might have to wait a few days or I guess in this case a couple weeks for that seasonal strength to show up.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (26:33):

Yeah, get past the fed meeting and

Adam Turnquist (26:36):

Yeah, lines up well with the fed meeting of course,

Jeffrey Buchbinder (26:38):

And then catch up a little bit on this data because we are, we're still getting stale data. A little bit of uncertainty for the next several weeks until they get caught up. Actually, it might even take into January <laugh>, but there's more catch up to go. So good stuff. Adam. let's shift gears to the weekly commentary now that you wrote a lot of these sections here that I'm going to highlight. So kind of under the radar keys. So first dollar this I mean this chart looks pretty good to me. Tell this uptrend maybe we don't want the dollar to go up, but it looks like it, it's going to go up. What do you think?

Adam Turnquist (27:21):

I think you have to respect the secular uptrend here that's been in place, going back to the oh 8 0 9 lows and we're kind of consolidating right above it. We've retested it a few times. You look at the prior retests, it takes a while to form a bottom here. Maybe that's what's playing out in the dollar index. And speaking of keys, I think this is really going to be key to not only the commodity space, but also international markets, which have had a pretty impressive year as you highlighted earlier in terms of outperformance. The dollar rolls over here in breaks below, call it 96 on a sustainable basis. That's really, I think the signal to shift maybe to international, especially emerging markets. They're the most negatively correlated to the dollar. And then you also have to ask, what does that mean for commodities right now that are starting to break out to new highs without the support of oil on at an index level? And then extrapolate that one further, what does that mean for inflation? If commodities are rallying to multi-month or multi-year highs in metals in some of the agg space? And if oil starts to work, could complicate the inflation story for the Fed, of course, with the dollar right now, I think, like I said before, respect the uptrend until you see it break down. But if it breaks, there's some pretty big implications for 2026 here.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (28:42):

Yeah, absolutely. If we break that uptrend you'll want to go into international a little bit more, especially as you mentioned. So that's one. We only have three charts from the weekly commentary, but there are I think seven topics. So here's the next one, corporate deal making on the rise. This is relevant for alternative investments, particularly merger arb strategies and private equity, right? Because if you have deals, then you're giving private equity ways to exit. The IPO market does the same thing. So you can see here from this chart after this bump up in 20 21, 20 22, when we had of course very low interest rates came back down in 2023 in terms of number of deals, they have started pick back up again. So 2024 had more than 20 23, 20 25 had more than 2024, and we think this keeps going higher.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (29:40):

So this is a reason to maybe, maybe be a little more interested in alternative investments, by the way, a little more volatility potentially next year. Plus, I mean, not necessarily an 18.9% drawdown, which I'll show you on the next chart. Not necessarily that kind of a drawdown, but we're not going to have essentially seven months straight up, we don't think. And a 17% year, right? So if you have a smaller gain in stocks next year and you have a little bit more volatility or at least more consistent volatility, then that's going to be a better environment for alternatives. Some of the other topics that we hit here, the midterms, so Adam, you wrote about that midterm years are more volatile. You have uncertainty heading into the November elections. So that's something we'll have to watch. And then of course, geopolitics, that's a, that's been a key driver of markets almost as long as markets have existed <laugh>. But given the trade situation we'll have to continue to watch geopolitics. And then the commodity markets. Adam, you also wrote about the commodity markets. We'll have to watch how geopolitics and trade policy influence gold copper oil, right? We might get a piece dividend out of Russia, Ukraine, anything else you'd highlight? I covered a lot of them, but anything else you want to highlight from the content that you created in the in the outlook?

Adam Turnquist (31:20):

No, I think you covered it pretty well. Just how much influence geopolitics has had. Of course, it always has an impact, but I think just over the last year it's been especially apparent with the trade policy, what that means, not only for commodity prices, how that's impacted the dollar. There's been some de dollarization trends that have developed. I think if the trade war continues and we continue to have volatility around trade and call it a dynamic, dynamic backdrop on trade policy, it alludes to higher volatility and probably some big moves in the commodity market, if not the dollar as well. Mm-Hmm

Jeffrey Buchbinder (31:59):

<Affirmative>. Yeah. So we'll probably have another year of a correction and average S&P 500 returns or better. That's, you know, call it around 10%. And then I mean hopefully the correction's smaller than 18.9, which was what we did in April and May. But we'll still probably get a correction. But this, this look, this chart, which compares the full year returns to the max drawdown within each year, one of my favorite charts is a really good study to keep in mind when we do get volatility. Because It tells you that it's pretty much always the best move to ride it out, especially if you don't get a recession. So those are some of the under rate, under the radar things to think about for next year. The you know, the on the radar things, right, which are like the Fed and AI, the stimulus bill, the O-B-B-B-A, right? Those we all covered were all covered in the Weekly Market Commentary two weeks ago. I think the date on that was November 17th. So just sort of fill it in the rest look for the outlook to be published and on lpl.com next week on the ninth. All right, so the preview, this could be our fastest week ahead preview, Adam, because I think all people need to do is shop because I don't think this stale data is particularly meaningful. What would you be watching? Would you counter that in any way?

Adam Turnquist (33:33):

The a DP employment report Wednesday? That's going to be the big one. I think in terms of the, for the Fed, obviously they're not going to have any new labor market data on the non-farm side, so that probably takes on more meaning than usual. Of course, they like the BLS data, but they don't have it. So the A DP probably is going to be a big one, pretty low bar at 20,000 in terms of survey. The prior month, 42,000 there. It has been interesting though, the last three weeks, when you look at the four week moving average of net payroll gains, it's been negative. So kind of some weak momentum coming into that print on Wednesday. It alludes to a low bar. I think anything positive the market would probably view that as, as a good sign, but you don't want it too positive. That's the world we live in now, because that would maybe mean the Fed is less likely to come out with a big dovish outlook, I think is the market's hoping for.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (34:26):

Yeah, we want, we want Goldilocks, but there's probably a little more downside risk than upside risk. I, I would argue so great point that that report will be important because it's timely and we're still in this environment where we're relying on private data. The ISM was a little soft 48.2 versus expectations of 49 this morning, but that's ISM manufacturing that's been below 50 for most of the last few years. I don't think that's particularly meaningful. The prices paid ticked up just a bit and ISM new orders did drop a couple of points. So those are, those are negative, but we would argue they're pretty small negatives. So we'll just have to stay patient and wait for the data to catch up and see the you know, like the October PCE will be interesting and obviously the November PCE in terms of gauging inflation.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (35:22):

And then retail sales are still behind. Of course, holiday shopping matters, by the way. The online shopping numbers for Black Friday were, were quite good. Up 9% over 9%, actually that's a nominal number. So if you adjust for inflation, it was still up around seven. And then the overall National Retail Federation forecast, I think is still 4% year over year, which is not bad. It, it is nominal, but I think we're going to do a little better than that, but not that at all. So even though you have this KS shaped economy of the upper end holding up really well and driving enough spending to offset some of the weakness that we're seeing at the lower income levels. So we think it'll be a pretty good holiday shopping season. That's why I wanted to do my part, Adam. So I wrote on this slide shop till you drop.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (36:11):

So everybody get out and shop. Some of you might even be done <laugh>, but if you're not done, most of you aren't done, go out and shop and help this economy. So and there are some tech earnings this week, but nothing, you know, no huge names. A couple of retail stragglers. Not, not really anything uninteresting. So just watch the a DP jobs reported as Adam alluded to, and watch the shopping totals as they as they come in. In fact, it's, it's Cyber Monday as we're recording this. So get out and go shop online. <Laugh>, how about that? Got a lot of great deals out there. So with that we'll wrap. Thanks Adam for joining on. Thank you to all of you for listening to another LPL Market signals. We greatly appreciate your support. We'll be at be back next week.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (36:57):

Actually. It's going to be a special market signals because we're going to go through the outlook. We will actually have released it by the time next week's market Signals is out. So stay tuned for that. And actually next Monday, so that is going to be the eighth LPL is ringing the bell at the Nasdaq, the opening bell. Awesome. I'll actually, you'll be there, right? I'll actually be there. So look for that. If you watch the open on you know, whatever CNBC or any of the other networks that show the open you'll see, you'll see a lot of us. I think there's like 90 of us going, so that'll be fun. Hopefully we'll get our name up in lights in Times Square at that NASDAQ market site. So that'll be fun. So again, that's December 8th at the at the NASDAQ Open. Because It's the 15th anniversary of our IPO December 8th, 2010, I guess it was. So, so that'll be fun. So looking forward to that. So thanks again, Adam. Thanks again to all of you. Have a great week and we'll talk to you next time. Take care.