Don’t Expect This Bull Market to End in Year Three

Jeff Buchbinder (00:00):

Hello everyone and welcome to another LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here with my friend, and colleague Kristian Kerr. We are here, Kristian, celebrate the third anniversary of the bull market. So I don't know if you've got a party planned where you are, but I'm celebrating by having my kids home and just trying to actually concentrate and get some work done.

Kristian Kerr (00:26):

Yeah, it is a quasi-holiday, at least for the bond trading community, right?

Jeff Buchbinder (00:32):

Those bond guys, we know they don't work as hard, so, very true <laugh>, the equity folks, of course, are still here keeping the lights off <laugh>. So enjoy your day off Lawrence Gillum, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist. So here's our agenda. We'll do more than just talk about the third anniversary of the bull market. We're going to of course talk about what happened on Friday with the call it China tariff spat that drove stocks sharply lower Friday afternoon. And then in the week ahead, we don't really know what economic data we're going to get because of the shutdown. So we're going to talk about some alternative ways to get a feel for how the economy's doing. We're going to listen to Chair Powell this week, and we're going to hear from corporate America because third quarter earnings season starts in earnest. So starting with the recap, Kristian, I want to get your thoughts on Friday.

Jeff Buchbinder (01:29):

You know, it's pretty clear what caused the sharp sell-off, and it was sharp. In fact, pretty much all of these losses that you see in the five-day return column were Friday afternoon after President Trump threatened to ratchet tariffs up on China by an additional hundred percent above where they are now. I think effective date for that was November 10, if I'm not mistaken. So, but, you know, putting aside what happened, what does that tell you about US-China relations going forward? Do we have to think more critically about trade tensions or can we just say, you know what, they'll get it worked out because tensions did ease over the weekend, we can just move on and focus on other things.

Kristian Kerr (02:24):

Yeah, I mean, I think depends on the school of thought. You know, I think there's a lot of people out there that just believe this is part of the negotiation process. You know, they're supposed to meet later in the month, and I think it's you know, trying to get an upper hand and, you know, if that's the case, then it probably isn't as big of a deal as the market may have made it out to be. But I think, you know, just the fact that there was a bit of complacency, I think, in the market, particularly if we look at stuff like, you know, implied correlation levels which basically just tells you the market was thinking that there's zero macro risk. So I think that was just served as a reminder that, you know, things aren't across the finish line yet with regards to any, you know, a real China trade deal.

Kristian Kerr (03:10):

So you know, I think that combined with just the mechanical flows and we ended up getting on Friday, and what I mean by that is, you know, if you look at the combination of stuff like risk parity you know, vault control, CTA kind of that cohort of the market, I mean, they're basically at hundred percentile and they've gotten very, very long. So when you get that spike in volatility, they were kind of forced to de-risk a little bit. And I think that was primarily what drove it, is if you look at kind of some of the other areas of the market you know, like retail was net to buy on the day, right? They've been a big driver of the move, particularly over the last month. So you know, it's that same thing we've been talking about, the position dynamic I think is very important and especially at these levels with a near 40% rise off the lows when we got to that high.

Kristian Kerr (03:59):

So I think, you know, we're getting a combination of, you know, a reminder that there's still kind of risk out there on trade, even though we've kind of wanted to forget about it. That combined with kind of this mechanical aspect of it I think is what really drove it. And you know, we'll see if you know, later this week we get more kind of mechanical de-risking or not. I think a lot's going to depend on whether we see kind of higher levels of volatility at the index level. And remember that, you know, higher volatility can be both on the upside. So today's, you know, today's move of, you know, what, 1.7% as we talk you know, is another factor that could kind of add to potential de-risking, at least in a short term standpoint.

Jeff Buchbinder (04:48):

Yeah, it's Monday afternoon, October 13 as we're recording this, and we're getting about half, actually even more than half of the losses back. Yep. At this point on the de-escalation over the weekend. And it wasn't just Trump saying everything will be fine, and, you know, we pretty much had to take Trump at his word when, you know, he said, buy stocks great opportunity. It was, when he talks about de-escalation, we tend to get de-escalation. And so in this case, he is talking about de-escalation, and then it was backed up by comments out of Chinese officials as well. So we'll probably get a de-escalation and or we already have and the market clearly is buying into that. I think it's also interesting that, you know, coming into Friday you had an AI theme driven week, and then of course that was turned upside down.

Jeff Buchbinder (05:39):

And so we had tech lead on the way down. Consumer discretionary is a very tariff sensitive sector, so that was weak. The you know, certainly financials were weak, but then today you're seeing really the you know, 180 degree turn back to what the leaders were before tech sold off on Friday. Right? So you've got tech leading, you've got consumer discretionary either tariff sensitive or China sensitive sectors are big winners today. So how about on the international markets, Kristian, I know you follow those very closely. I mean, certainly the Asian markets have to catch up to what's going on in the U.S. because they were closed of course before the Friday afternoon sell-off. Anything you've seen over the last 24, 48 hours in terms of international markets that you think is noteworthy? I think the hostage release is more,

Kristian Kerr (06:39):

Yeah, more of

Jeff Buchbinder (06:40):

Humanity story than a markets story. But certainly we're all celebrating those developments in the Middle East today.

Kristian Kerr (06:48):

Yeah, I mean, I guess China didn't get the memo that everything's all clear right, because they were, you know, they were down quite a bit, you know, after the apparent de-escalation and weren't able to get back into the green. So, you know, not, I wouldn't say that's a major, you know, red flag, but I think, you know, you want to see how they react after this, you know, move higher in the U.S. markets because they continue to kind of lag. That might be a signal that this isn't, you know, in the rear view mirror just yet. That's kind of what I would just be focused on over the next you know, call it 24, 36 hours. But I would expect to see them, you know, go well in the green if we are getting kind of a true de-escalation here.

Jeff Buchbinder (07:36):

Yeah, good point. The beyond that, I guess the next thing to watch is whether Trump meets with Xi in South Korea at the end of this month. Yeah. And that will allow them to hopefully strike some sort of a deal. So tariffs on Chinese imports don't go to 140% or whatever. Also interesting that crude oil is below 60 bucks. Certainly oil doesn't like a U.S. China trade spat, bond market's closed as we mentioned, but we got some nice gains in the bond market and gold is at another all-time high today. So a lot of interesting things going on in the

Kristian Kerr (08:16):

As is silver.

Jeff Buchbinder (08:19):

As is silver. Yeah. Silver's up even more than gold today at last check. And gold was a big winner.

Kristian Kerr (08:25):

Yeah. I mean the gold thing's getting interesting. You, you know, it's been just on a wild run here. You know, I do wonder, you know, some of this I think is structural, right? I think there's, you know, a lot of gold moving in the United States and there's talk that, you know, kind of gold's got to move around the world here, and that's kind of what's driving it. So, you know, kind of the physical part of the world where these metals are actually at is kind of driving a bit of this trade, I think. But you know, it does make you wonder, you would think in a world where we're getting kind of a peace deal that that would be bad for gold, generally speaking. So the fact that it's so big here does make me wonder what, you know, what's really going on. But listen, it's been in a very strong uptrend as is silver. So, you know, I think you can't overthink it either. You know, there's obviously some other factors here driving that. There's been a ton of a huge increase in ETF demand for gold as it's for gold and silver as they've been kind of in these big up moves. So maybe it's just a, you know, a natural part of what we've been seeing here over the last few weeks.

Jeff Buchbinder (09:38):

Yeah. We continue to like precious metals, but you know, up 40, 50% in a pretty short period of time makes you think that maybe some consolidation is needed there. The rising dollar hasn't stopped precious metals, right? We had a over a 1% move in the dollar last week, sold off on Friday, but it has been strong recently. We talked about that Kristian, about how the dollar got so oversold and sentiment was so washed out that it would potentially have nowhere to go but up. And that's indeed what's happened.

Kristian Kerr (10:15):

Yeah. You know, we went to that major support that we've been flagging for a while, right? Kind of that 96ish area. And the dollar index held actually kind of undercut it briefly, and then ever since then, pretty much have been trying to crawl higher. You know, I would say the last time I was on one of these with or I guess you know, Global Thursdays with Adam, and we were talking about how the dollar index has really struggled the last, you know, call it six months, anytime it's gotten back to the 100-day day moving average. And it's through it now and consolidating. So, we'll see. You know, I think if we can kind of get a leg above there, then it does maybe open up the doors for potential dollar rally here.

Kristian Kerr (10:57):

So, we'll, you know, to your point, it'd be interesting to see how kind of the commodities and some of the other markets respond if we do kind of get kind another leg higher here in the dollar. But yeah, I think, you know, the fact that we've kind of held that major support and are starting to see some upside progress is something to really watch closely because I think it does have a lot of kind of knock on impacts to some of the other international markets that we're following closely here.

Jeff Buchbinder (11:25):

Yeah, the talk is more about whether AI is a bubble, which we don't think it necessarily is yet. Rather than U.S. exceptionalism is dead. Those are sort of in conflict with one another. And frankly I'd rather talk about AI than whether the dollar is, you know, losing its reserve currency status or anything like that, which certainly we don't believe it is. So thanks for that, Kristian. Let's go onto the main part of our presentation here about the anniversary of the bull market. We won't have a debate here and put everybody to sleep about whether it's a birthday or an anniversary, but the bull market did enter its fourth year. It's through its three years and on Sunday the 12th. And so, you know, we can put this into historical perspective and also, you know, use history to talk about how much longer this could go. And so we'll start with just this chart of the first three years. So it's been good. We've had, this doesn't include Friday, so call it like an 86% gain since the bull market began three years ago. And you see here on this chart, that compares very favorably to the average and the median bull market. This includes all bull markets since 1950.

Jeff Buchbinder (12:50):

We got off to a slow start. In fact, we were well behind after year one. Year one of this bull was only up 21% in the S&P 500, and the average is 40. But this bull has caught up and surpassed the typical bull, up almost 90%. So but that's history, right? This is also history. The bull market, as we all know, has been driven by tech stocks primarily, and the AI trend. In fact, it's not entirely a coincidence that ChatGPT was announced shortly after the bull began in October of 2022. The biggest seven tech stocks are responsible for about half the gains. So that, you see this, you see the tickers here, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, NVIDIA by itself, 15% of the bull markets advance, the three year advance. It's really remarkable. 52% is the S&P 493, the rest of the market. So I'll ask you to weigh in on this, Kristian, but what this tells me is if these big techs stop working, then the bull market is going to really have to rely on the rest of the S&P, right? Which we call the 493 to push us higher. So how worried are you about this concentration and, you know, do you think we could see a broadening out?

Kristian Kerr (14:21):

Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. I think, you know, historically, when you get to these types of levels of concentration in the index, it's not early cycle, right? You know, go back to, you know, 29, mid-60s, you know, Nifty Fifty, .com, like you started to get really high levels of concentration towards the end of it. So I think that is, you know, something I think we think about on a more on a strategic basis. And I don't think it really matters too much from a tactical standpoint, but you know, it is something I think that to be thinking about or, you know, and I don't want to use the word worry, but, you know, kind of a thing that these are kind of late cycle dynamics when you get such high levels of concentration.

Kristian Kerr (15:04):

I even saw today that we've never seen such concentration in just the top three names, right? Like 21% are just of the S&P is in, isn't just three Mag Seven names. So, you know, those are things you just got to be just aware of that it's not an early cycle phenomenon. And I think, you know, listen, where we're trading what, like, you know, little over around 22 times next year's earnings, I mean, that's, it's tough to see how we're going to get the multiple expansion to kind of keep getting these types of returns we've been seeing. So, to answer your question, Jeff, yeah, I think we are going to kind of see this thing continue. It's going to need the, you know, the 493 or the 490 to really start carrying the load here. If it's a true kind of secular bull market like I think the data suggests it might be.

Jeff Buchbinder (15:59):

It'd be nice if every stock was up 88% since October of 2022. But that's just not how the world works, right? We live in a cap weighted world. So I'm totally with you, that this suggests late cycle, but when you go back and look at history there's always groups that are kind of leading the charge.

Kristian Kerr (16:21):

Of course. Yeah. Yeah. I think too, like yeah, what changes, what makes this a little bit different than maybe the 90s is that, you know, you've got a lot more private capital, right? We've seen, you know, versus the early 2000s, you know, basically the amount of publicly traded companies has been almost halved. And I think that's a direct result of, you know, the proliferation of private equity. I think that changes the dynamic a little bit. But, you know, I would argue if so much of this bull market has been driven by kind of the AI narrative, which, you know, you pointed out it basically all started you know, to gain traction after ChatGPT came out, then I think you're going to want to see kind of the productivity benefits of this starting to spread, right?

Kristian Kerr (17:05):

So in theory, that would mean that, you know, the companies in the 490 should start to benefit from this. I think, you know, that's kind of the next iteration, the next phase of this would be to start seeing that. And I think that's where you could kind of get the next extension hires, if you start seeing those benefits translate into the 490 saying, hey, we're starting to see, you know, productivity rise, earnings, you know, do a lot better because of the implication of all these AI technologies.

Jeff Buchbinder (17:35):

Yeah, we've seen small caps have some days in the sun. We've seen healthcare generate some interest recently. So there are other areas that, you know, the market wants to try to push higher. You know, we'll see maybe earnings season will get the market a little more excited about some other areas potentially industrials ahead of stimulus in 2026, time will tell. But yes, we do have a fairly narrow driven bull market, and the AI theme is very important in terms of support and keeping this thing going. So this chart shows you average performance for bull markets by year. So this only shows bull markets that made it to year four. So not all of the bull markets since 1950, but good number of them. And the average year four gain is actually almost 13%.

Jeff Buchbinder (18:28):

That's better than the average year three gain, even though we had a really strong year three this time. If you average all the year threes, it's only up six. So you might actually be looking at a little bit of a pickup, a little bit of a tailwind if we follow this pattern. And year four could be certainly as good or better than year three. The other thing I want to point out here is that virtually all of the year threes made it to year four with more gains, right? Only in this 1949 bull market, which certainly neither of us remember Kristian, although I'm a little closer to you than you are. The 1949 bull market made it to year three, and then had a down fourth year. But since then, all the year fours shown here in red saw gains up 28, up six, up 30 up one, I"' rounding, up 13, up 13. So good chance that this bull market lasts four years and we get gains in year four based on based on this history. So what do you think Kristian, besides AI, not let's call it the AI theme breaking, aside from that, what do you think are the keys to this bull heaven another year in it?

Kristian Kerr (19:49):

Yeah, it's you know, I'd say the, I like looking at this stuff through the election cycle lens, right? Because it tends to dovetail. But, you know, historically speaking you know, when you get a new kind of administration coming in, it's really kind of into the midterms, you tend to do okay, and then it's kind of post midterm where you see the potential for corrections. So I'm kind of leaning into that a little bit, where, you know, I can make the case, the administration pivoted, you know, beginning of the year, I think the markets or the markets were expecting Trump, you know, 2.0 to be a carbon copy of 1.0. And then it clearly wasn't around the first quarter. And then in order to get the OBBBA passed, we ended up kind of seeing him pivot back towards 1.0.

Kristian Kerr (20:35):

So I think that's kind of somewhat midterm driven. So it's very difficult to see kind of, you know, the administration being negative growth, negative you know, kind of weighing on market sentiment going into midterms. Like, you know, obviously it benefits them to have the market strong into that. So you know, I would say just kind of taking a step back and looking at historical lens kind of the way you are here, Booky, and maybe throwing in the election cycle dynamic, you know, I would say it would be difficult to see kind of a real bear market materializing, you know, before the midterms that would be historically kind of less normal. So really kind of my attention or my, you know, my fear of kind of seeing maybe a weaker market really stems from post midterm. So that's what a year away, right? So that's kind of, you know, the way I'm thinking about it from a longer term point of view.

Jeff Buchbinder (21:34):

Yeah. And certainly the election ties into the dovish Fed narrative, right? Because we're going to get a more dovish Fed, certainly when all the Trump appointees come in, that means the Fed is not going to break this bull market with hikes. And by the way, we're probably not going to have a recession in 2026 because of all the stimulus coming in, right? Almost a 1% of GDP and stimulus coming in and 2026 from the OBBBA that you referenced, Kristian. So that's just not an ingredient or not a formula for a recession. So as long as we don't get hit by some sort of exogenous shock, right? The tariff scare in April was an exogenous shock, I guess you could say. Obviously the pandemic was an exogenous shock. As long as we don't get hit by something like that. Very good chance that this economy grows through 2026 and the market doesn't really start to price in recession until 2027.

Jeff Buchbinder (22:36):

That clears the way for a year four, positive year four, this bull market. And by the way, this, I show this on this next chart. This is annualized performance of historical bull markets, and then how long they last. We're just talking about getting through year four. Well, as you can see here, most of these bulls get to year five or a good chunk of them anyway. And the average is about five years. So I would argue there's a good chance this bull goes more than five years. Very hard to predict, of course. But if you assume we hit the average, you're talking about two more years in this bull and the annualized returns, while they've been really strong, you saw that on that first bull market chart, how we're up at 88%, at least through the recent bull market peak over the three years, it's not really an outlier in terms of annualized returns. There's 23, 21, 26, 20 19. So maybe we cool off a bit to come closer to sort of the average annualized return for a bull market. But based on this, I'd say that odds are good that this bull has more room to run.

Kristian Kerr (24:00):

Yeah, I mean my only pushback here would be, you know, how many of these bull markets do you know, did you have the Buffet indicator at extremes, right? So it's like trees don't grow to the sky. So I think that's where things

Jeff Buchbinder (24:13):

In a bull market Yeah.

Kristian Kerr (24:15):

For, yeah, yeah. You know, I mean the Nasdaq, for example, is well through, you know, percentage GDP that we were in the.com era. So that's where I kind of wonder because you know, yes, it's nice to look back at these things and look at, you know, the historicals, but you know, every situation's a little bit different. And that's where I'm kind of wondering if we can go another two years in this with us at kind of you know, valuation levels that are just frankly high. And, you know, that's my only real question mark. Not saying that it means that we, you know, we have to see a correction. And again, it could be, you know, we were just talking about it could be driven by the kind of the 490 and the benefits kind of spreading to the other parts of the economy. But you know, just to play devil's advocate, I would say that would be a little bit of a, something I'd want to see as, you know, how many of these markets were extended on some of these measures, and does that kind of change the potential outcome?

Jeff Buchbinder (25:12):

Yeah, absolutely. Great point. This doesn't mean that volatility is not kind of coming at some point. Yeah. In fact you know, bringing back your election cycle, I think the average correction in a midterm year is 18%. Yeah. So, you know, you're talking about the possibility of a continued bull market for several more years, possibly, no guarantee, but possibly, while you still have corrections. And we had a correction this year, but it wasn't enough to end the bull market, at least the way we interpret it. 20% close to close declines to start a bear. We got close, but we didn't quite get there similar to what we did in the late 90s, really close to a bear market, but didn't actually trigger. And that's why you see this 1990 bull, nine plus years. Same thing with the 2009. We got close, I guess in 2015 to ending that bull 2009, but it ran another several years after that and ended up being the longest bull market in modern history. So we'll have ups and downs, of course we always do, but the backdrop, looks pretty good despite high valuations. And that's another reason to expect maybe not 23% annualized returns until this bull ends. But certainly something fairly close to that I would argue.

Jeff Buchbinder (26:45):

Alright, good stuff. So that's the Weekly Market Commentary for this week, which you can find on lpl.com under the Research tab. Let's go to the week ahead, Kristian. This is going to be interesting because we start earnings season and we're flying a little bit blind because we don't have a lot of economic data because of the government shutdown. You could argue that Chairman Powell's comments maybe don't matter as much because he doesn't have as much data. I don't know, <laugh>. But point is we just aren't going to have quite as much to go on in terms of traditional economic data, and we're going to have to listen more closely to corporate America and other sources. So, what do you think is most interesting for investors to think about this week?

Kristian Kerr (27:31):

Yeah, I kind of wonder if that amplifies the impact of earnings season, you know, longer this shutdown goes on, we don't have the data, then, you know, we're going to be getting our color for what's going on with the economy from, you know, company management. So I wonder if it does amplify this and, you know, listen, I think the last week of October, half the S&P is reporting or will be at half the S&P have reported and like five of the Mag Seven will be reporting. So that could be a pivotal you know, a pivotal moment here for markets especially, we don't have data. You know, I think it also kind of lends a little bit of itself to kind of what Jeff Roach has been talking about that, you know, it starts to market sort of focus more on the private data because

Kristian Kerr (28:14):

That's all we have. You know, listen, I don't think it's to be that big of a influence for this week anyway, because I think it's about what we've experienced in the last few days. You know, these trade dynamics will be you know, probably front and center until we get kind of any real clarity. So, you know, that's kind of what I'm focused on here. I do wonder kind of if the Powell stuff you know, if he's able to give us anything that really matters given that he doesn't really have any insight himself given the lack of data.

Jeff Buchbinder (28:49):

Yeah. If we know the Fed has a lot of critics, so I'm sure people are, you know, talking about maybe it doesn't even matter because yeah, secondary sources of the economy matter more than government data, which in many cases is lagged and, or people don't think have a lot of credibility and all of that. So frankly, as a fundamental analyst and strategist, I like listening to companies and hearing what they have to say given we have a lot of banks, when you listen to this, you'll hear from banks already because we get a bunch of them on Tuesday. Let's see, you've got what, JP Morgan I think Goldman, who else? Blackrock Banks and asset managers Citi, Wells Fargo, there's a number of big financials reporting Tuesday. So we'll get a little bit of information about the economy just from those few names.

Jeff Buchbinder (29:45):

And then of course, as we go through earnings season, we'll be looking for more insights. But I think based on the data that we have the economic backdrop was pretty good in Q3, right? The city economic surprise index made a little bit of a run was very positive. Certainly the Atlanta Fed GDP Now tracker very, very positive. Even just consensus forecasts of GDP growth in Q3, very positive. We know the labor market slowed, but when the economy grows, and by the way, in Q3, you had a weak dollar relative to last year's Q3, that is supportive. And we know the AI spending is coming through, you know, that's been half of earnings growth. It's probably going to be half of earnings growth again or certainly pretty close to it. We know that spending has come through, it seems like there's an AI press release every day, you know, whether it's Oracle or Broadcom or OpenAI or whomever, right?

Jeff Buchbinder (30:43):

So that spending's coming through. So it's going to be hard for corporate America to miss on earnings, and it's going to be hard for corporate America to give bad guidance broadly. So look for something in the low teens, again, similar to last quarter on earnings growth, and look for estimates to hold up. Actually, I saw a survey of institutional investors recently. The question was, are estimates for 2026 going to go up or down during earnings season? It was 60/40 in favor of up, I actually voted down. I was part of the survey, I was part of the survey that said down, I think actually that tells me that there's a decent chance that they hold up. Yeah, right. So estimates probably not going to come down much if at all, because of that AI tailwind. So, I think it's going to be a good, it's hard to know whether stocks are going to go up or down Kristian as a result of reports, but I think generally speaking, based on the numbers it's going to be a solid earnings season.

Kristian Kerr (31:42):

Well, it's a relatively low bar, right? I think Oh, for sure. So, you know, that to me is always what I look at going into earnings season, you know, what are the expectations and they're, you know, again, we're in, you know, got that low bar to get through. So it doesn't seem like it's going to take much to, you know, to surpass, you know, perhaps that's gamed a little bit these days, but it is what it is. So, you know, like going into it, it's, I'm kind of in your camp, it's difficult to see you know, kind of this not being a decent earning season just because it has been. So, you know, kind of in your camp here, Booky.

Jeff Buchbinder (32:25):

Well, if you weren't in my camp, you'd tell me. And <laugh> always welcome the the debate. So CPI and PPI are coming out next week, it appears, on paper. On paper, right? Because I guess you know, the White House called those people back in, or those organizations made the decision themselves, I don't know, to actually come back in and produce those reports despite the shutdown likely continuing into next week. I don't think we're going to get retail sales or claims or import export prices or any of the housing data. I think it's all going to be pushed out. And you know, I guess they'll just sort of backfill this data once the folks come back to work. By the way, speaking of the shutdown, it looks like the Trump administration has figured out a way to pay the military on October 15 by redirecting funds.

Jeff Buchbinder (33:27):

So that is not as much of a pressure point to end the shutdown as it was previously thought. So, it looks very likely even though the Senate will be back this week, it'll be very hard for the shutdown to end this week. I hope it does. We all do, I think, but most likely this goes another week or maybe even a couple of weeks. So that'll be something else to watch in addition to the China situation and Powell on Tuesday and the 12% of the S&P that reports earnings. All right, well, with that, we'll go ahead and wrap up. So thanks Kristian for jumping on this week. Really, really great stuff from you on the markets and the latest news here and what to watch in the week ahead. Again, everybody check out our Weekly Market Commentary on the third anniversary of the bull market. Thank you to Adam Turnquist for partnering up with me on that. Everybody have a great week and we'll see you next time on LPL Market Signals. Take care. See you. Bye.