Trump Isn’t the First to Move Markets

LPL’s Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, provides historical examples of elevated volatility and how the U.S. and Germany compare regarding exports.

Last Edited by: LPL Research

Last Updated: April 16, 2025

Transcript

Jeffrey Roach (00:03):

Hi, I'm Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial with two key charts to explain the current macro landscape. First, it's not the first time an individual moves markets. So apparently President Trump is a man who can move markets both to the upside and the downside. During his second term, the president has created a cloud of uncertainty surrounding trade policy and the various press conferences and social media posts have been tools for volatility. But the president is not the first one who's had an outsized influence on markets. Those who've been around markets long enough would know that other individuals have incited market swings during periods of uncertainty. Announcements about the Troubled Asset Relief program, TARP in 2008 created greater short-term swings than even recent tariff related news. Other notable periods include 2022 when investors thought the economy was in recession. Long-term investors should move past the headlines and not get tempted to throw a knee jerk reaction when we know productivity enhancements, better regulatory environments and lower tax rates should provide a boost to the economy.

Jeffrey Roach (01:09):

Second, Germany is especially vulnerable. Among the G20. Germany is the most reliant on exports. Last year, exports were roughly 45% of the German economy, and the U.S. is one of its biggest customers. Key export categories include vehicles, machinery, pharmaceutical products, and electrical equipment. Germany's strong reliance on international trade with the U.S., particularly in industries like automotive, machinery and chemicals. Illustrates that neither country really wins with a trade war. Rather, investors must estimate who is least hurt. But on the other end of that spectrum is the U.S. Our country's exports are only 11% of our economy supporting that notion that President Trump may have the upper hand at the negotiating table. Well, that's all for now, and if you want more insights on global market trends, follow us on social media and take care.

LPL’s Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, provides historical examples of elevated volatility and how the U.S. and Germany compare regarding exports.

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