Weekly Market Performance — June 18, 2026

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of June 15, 2026. U.S. stocks printed modest gains over the holiday-shortened week with easing geopolitical tensions and central bank signals driving sentiment. Equities were supported by progress toward a U.S.–Iran agreement that lowered oil prices and boosted risk appetite, though gains were tempered midweek by hawkish Federal Reserve takeaways. International markets also benefited from lower energy prices amid local central bank decisions. In fixed income, bonds rose despite Fed-driven volatility, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

Stock Index Performance

S&P 500 Index Sectors

Fixed Income and Commodities

Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 6/18/26 @ 2:55 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: Major U.S. equity averages posted moderate gains over the holiday-shortened week after facing a couple of major drivers — in both directions — over the last four trading sessions. The S&P 500 picked up right where it left off late last week, printing a strong Monday session following reports that Washington and Tehran were set for an interim agreement to end the conflict in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, to be signed on Friday. The news sparked a plunge in crude futures, which dampened investor concerns around economic impacts of the war and buoyed risk appetite. However, market participants took a breather leading up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision, refraining from outsized bets ahead of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting, while analyzing implementation of the U.S.-Iran truce.   

Equity benchmarks wiped out week-to-date gains Wednesday as the mood across Wall Street turned risk-off on hawkish-leaning takeaways from the Fed's rate hold, with roughly half of policymakers penciling in at least one rate hike this year. Nonetheless, a Thursday bounce put stocks back in positive territory after the White House inked its preliminary agreement with Iran a day earlier than expected, spurring optimism of easing inflation risks with the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen. Chipmaker strength also aided gains on news of a chip design partnership between Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC).

International Equities: The European benchmark STOXX 600 Index was modestly higher on the week at Thursday’s close after scoring its first record high since the start of the Iran conflict earlier in the week. Tumbling oil prices were flagged as a tailwind for the region, sending energy companies lower as investors turned to economically sensitive corners of the market on easing inflation and economic growth concerns. Attention also landed on central bank policy, as hawkish takeaways from Wednesday’s Fed decision took some wind out of the risk-on sails, while U.K. shares underperformed after dropping on two dissents for rate hikes in the Bank of England’s Thursday decision to leave rates unchanged. 

Asian equities paced a mostly higher week through Thursday trading with sentiment broadly lifted by hopes that the U.S.-Iran deal will meaningfully alleviate supply chain pressure across the region. AI-related names continued to outperform amid the stronger risk appetite, with South Korea charging higher on the back of chipmaker SK Hynix. But the biggest story of the week was the Bank of Japan delivering on expectations of a rate hike, which supported banking shares, while sliding oil prices lifted hopes of reduced pressure on corporate margins. Greater China remained under pressure, as Hong Kong tech shares continued to dent benchmarks. A contraction in Chinese consumer spending for the first time since the pandemic and property stocks dropping to near pre-2024 stimulus levels dampened the macro backdrop.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded higher over the last four days after reversing post-Fed meeting losses. Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting was decidedly hawkish, with nine of the 18 Fed officials suggesting at least one rate hike was likely in 2026 with six officials suggesting two hikes could be necessary. As a result of the hawkish shift, front end Treasury yields sold off in concert with the expectation of additional rate hikes, while the back end was largely flat to barely higher. As such, the yield curve (proxied by the difference in 2-year and 10-year yields) collapsed to its flattest level since early 2025. That trend continued Thursday morning with the 2Y/10Y curve at 25 basis points. Also, market-implied inflation expectations (per Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) breakevens) have fallen to levels to suggest that the Fed will get back to its 2% inflation target sometime over the next two years. 

Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting as chair was unexpectedly hawkish but provided additional credibility that the central bank was serious about getting inflation under control. And further flattening of the curve reinforces our view that there is very little additional compensation to own longer-maturity Treasury yields at this point. The back up in front-end yields, though, provides additional income for income-oriented investors as the 1–5-year parts of the Treasury curve have become even more attractive. Finally, given the collapse in TIPS breakevens, the bar to invest in TIPS has fallen as well.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodity complex traded lower on the week, weighed down by double-digit losses in crude oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures sank near their lowest levels since the early days of the U.S.-Iran conflict, stringing together consecutive losses as traders awaited the expected interim peace deal. Prices extended declines Thursday as markets reacted to the memorandum of understanding entering effect and energy transport traffic beginning to trickle through the Strait of Hormuz. However, given inventory levels remaining tight, volatility is likely to continue. Elsewhere, gold prices were on track for a slight gain, paring its week-to-date advance after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting boosted market pricing for a 2026 rate hike, which would raise opportunity costs for the non-yielding bullion. In currencies, the dollar took the spotlight after nearing one-year highs on the Fed’s hawkish tilt, sending the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen cross rate to its critical level of 160 and sparking intervention chatter for the Japanese currency.

Economic Weekly Roundup

New Fed Chair Plans to Shake Things Up

• At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, Kevin Warsh announced five task forces, drawing on both internal and external expertise, to reassess key pillars of Fed policy: data collection and usage, AI and productivity, communications (including a revamp of the Summary of Economic Projections), the inflation framework, and the balance sheet.
• For his first meeting, Chair Warsh opted to keep things at a minimum, including the length of that last sentence. “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Given the parting sentence about the Committee’s commitment, we see this as hawkish delivery.
• But since current inflation is supply-driven, we should expect a less hawkish view on policy once the Middle East conflict ends. (A bit of forward guidance here.)
• Rate projections show officials split over whether to raise interest rates by the end of 2026, with nine of 18 officials penciling in a rate hike and the median rate forecast drifting up to 3.75% from 3.4% in March. The median has rates falling to 3.6% in 2027.
• Chairman Warsh did not submit any projections, and a second official withheld a rate forecast for 2028, illustrating the challenging times we are facing. 
• Fed officials see core inflation at 3.3% by the end of 2026, up from the 2.7% forecasted in March; and GDP growth of 2.2%, compared with 2.4% previously. We think inflation could surprise us to the downside if geopolitics improves sooner rather than later.

Bottom Line: We are going back to the days of Alan Greenspan when FOMC statements were deliberately minimalist and opaque (“constructive ambiguity”). The dominant uncertainty stems from the Middle East conflict; as it fades, the focus will turn to the resilience of capital investment, and the productivity gains it is generating — both of which indicate economic growth is tracking near trend.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead: 

• Monday: No economic releases scheduled
• Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Jun 6), Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (Jun), S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI (Jun preliminary), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Business Conditions (Jun)
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 19), Current Account Balance (1Q), New Home Sales (May), Building Permits (May final)
• Thursday: Personal Income and Spending (May), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May), Headline and Core PCE Price Index (May), Durable Goods Orders (May preliminary), Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 20), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (May preliminary), Continuing Claims (Jun 13), GDP (1Q third reading), Personal Consumption (1Q third reading), Core PCE Price Index (1Q third reading), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Jun)
• Friday: Advance Goods Trade Balance (May), Retail Inventories (May), Wholesale Inventories (May preliminary), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Jun final), Kansas City Fed Services Activity (Jun)