LPL Financial Research is looking ahead for new ways to face current challenges and prepare for better times. The LPL Research strategists discuss the new Midyear Outlook 2020: The Trail to Recovery with insights on charting a path to eventual economic and market recovery and updated forecasts for the rest of 2020. Plus, learn how stocks may predict the next president!
View the new interactive version of Midyear Outlook 2020.
The trajectory of the economic recovery remains uncertain, but based on the depth of the contraction and a multi-staged recovery, the LPL Research strategists’ 2020 base case GDP forecast calls for a 3–5% contraction in US GDP.
Stocks already are pricing in a steady economic recovery beyond 2020 that may be supported if we receive breakthrough treatments to end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the optimism reflected in stocks also may limit their upside potential over the rest of the year.
Interest rates may remain at historically low levels, but the direction may be higher over the rest of 2020, according to the LPL Research strategists. Their forecasts suggest the 10-year US Treasury yield may end up at the lowest level to end a year on record this year.
Historically, when a president has been up for reelection, it has tended to boost stocks. History also shows that the US economy has major bearings on the presidential election outcomes. If there has been a recession during the year or two before the election, the incumbent president has tended to lose. In addition, how stocks perform the three months ahead of the election has delivered a solid track record of deciding who will be in the White House the next January.
Tune in now
Listen to the entire podcast to get the LPL strategists’ views and insights on current market trends in the US and global economies. To listen to previous podcasts go to Market Signals podcast. You can subscribe to Market Signals on iTunes, Google Play, or Spotify.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth in the podcast may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
All index data is from FactSet.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
For Public Use — Tracking #: 1-05032170 (07/21)