Top-Down Technical Take — Five Key Charts for the Week Ahead

Jeff Buchbinder:

Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals Podcast. Jeff Buchbinder here, your host for this week, with my friend and colleague Adam Turnquist here to talk some charts and maybe a little bit of football, since both our teams are undefeated. Thanks for joining us today, Adam, how are you?

Adam Turnquist:

Hey, I'm doing pretty good. Yes, undefeated Vikings on this Monday morning, and we have a bye week. So I get to enjoy that, at least for another week or two. But good start so far for the Vikings and of course, the market this year. So we'll translate into talking about that, I'm sure as we get going.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yes, we have new highs for the S&P 500, at least on Friday. And certainly the Vikings are on a high. We'll see about the Chiefs tonight. So it's Monday, October 7th, 2024 as we're recording this a little bit after lunch. Certainly a somber date. So our thoughts and prayers are with our friends in Israel on this day. Here is our agenda for today's podcast. We're gonna talk a little bit about market action last week. It was really interesting, some really interesting things about last week with the move in oil and the move in China. So we'll talk about that. Next, just an economic outlook that accompanies the Weekly Market Commentary that we did for this week, which you can find on lpl.com. It is about the economy and it just keeps on chugging. Next, of course, Adam's here.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So we always do a look at some key charts that he is watching. So we'll probably spend most of the time on that and then close it out with just preview the week ahead where we have PPI, CPI, and the Fed minutes, along with the start of earning season, by the way. It's not on our economic calendar, but it still matters nonetheless. So, all right, so starting with market recap. So we wouldn't have had a four week winning streak for the S&P if it wasn't for the jobs report on Friday, which was a blowout above even the highest economist forecast. So that turned a weekly loss into a small weekly gain of 0.3% on the S&P 500. The rest of the major indexes lagged a little bit. See here, the Dow and the Nasdaq up 0.1% and the Russell 2000 small cap index down a half percent. If you look down this table, the first thing that jumps out at you is the energy rally, 7% on the S&P 500 energy sector. That is a big run, and certainly we know why, Adam. It was 'cause oil prices were up about 9%, which you'll see on the next page. Anything anything else in terms of sectors that you're watching that we want our listeners to be aware of?

Adam Turnquist:

Energy, clearly exciting when you look at it on a little bit longer term basis, though still not seeing a lot of technical progress that would suggest this move sustainable on an absolute basis and on a relative basis. When we compare the sector to the S&P 500, it's been an underperformer, of course, we're getting some improvements there, but not enough to change our, our technical opinion. That energy's gonna start outperforming on, again, a sustainable basis. If you look at just price action last week, we did get another weekly advance for the S&P, however, underneath the surface volume, very low throughout the week, and also declining shares, outpacing advancers a little bit last week. So some trouble underneath the surface on a shorter term basis. And now we're seeing some volatility measures, IE the VIX move higher a little bit today on some of the geopolitical risks. So I think we could be in for a little bit of a bumpy ride this week as we get through some of the inflation data. Earnings kicking off Fed minutes, which we'll go over as we get into today's session.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, the S&P's down about a half a percent today as we're recording this. So maybe seeing the start of a little bit of a bumpier ride. I guess this is typical when you've had such a big run, you need to digest it. And then certainly this is a seasonally challenging period, which you'll get into in a minute, Adam. So I think the next thing on this slide that jumps out is the strength in the dollar and how much that hit the EAFE, the benchmark for developed international equities down almost 4%. We continue to favor the U.S. Although certainly expect international to hang on a little bit better than that all else equal, just that dollar strength is a big drag. We're also still in this period of yen volatility that's making it difficult for Japan, or at least the Japanese equity market to stage a steady advance.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So we continue to like the longer term story in Japan, but still a vital outlook in the short term. And turning to bonds, I mean, the big story last week with the jobs report that drove bond yields higher, which of course means bond values lower. So the Bloomberg aggregate bond index was down 1.2% for the week and you know, cut into the year to date gains, but we're still up about three and a half percent on that index for the year. The move in crude oil, I mean, depending on which measure you look at you might not get this exact number, but we have the Bloomberg WTI crude oil index up almost 12% last week. That is, that's the biggest move we've had in oil in quite some time. Of course, we know the reason Israel around tensions, we're still waiting for the next Israel response to the missile barrage from Iran last week.

Jeff Buchbinder:

I think that's I mean, it's almost binary. Does you know, does Israel go after Iran's production, oil production facilities or not, right? You're gonna, you're either gonna see oil spike on that news or you're gonna see it sell off. So maybe that's not the best time to use technicals, Adam, but we know we're gonna use technicals anyway. And you can tell us where you think oil is coming when we get there. Let's move on to the you know, high level economic outlook. This is the weekly commentary for this week. Again, it's on lpl.com. Jeff Roach wrote it, our Chief Economist. We'll do our best to convey his thoughts. I think the you know, the high level story here is the economy is doing better than we thought and better than most people thought.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So, but at the same time, there's still a little bit of inflation risk kind of bubbling that we have to pay attention to. So this first chart from the piece shows the ISM prices paid index for both services and manufacturing. And you see the ocean green colored bar, which is the services index, is actually starting to tick higher. It's actually, it's hard to see, but it's moved up the last few months when you add the port strikes, which granted they've been settled, but they've had a little bit of a short-term effect that can, you know, gum up supply chains and lead to some short-term higher prices. Plus we have base effects. So the year over year comparisons for the inflation data get a little bit tougher, which means the inflation readings are probably gonna tick higher in the next couple months. So we'll see how much that scares people.

Jeff Buchbinder:

The Fed funds futures market is already priced out. The you know, the chance of a 50 basis point cut. Next meeting in November. Now we're looking at one cut there. That's our base case. 125 basis point cut next meeting, 125 basis point cut at the following meeting in December as well. We also, here's where I want to get your thoughts on this, Adam. We also got these massive revisions to the national income data. So I know we've combined bar chart and line chart here, but this is the same data point, just the original release and the revision. So the ocean green colored bars are the initial estimate for real disposable income. So that's inflation adjusted. And then the black line above that is the revision, which just came out last week. And you see here a massive gap between these two data sets. Right? So what do you think's going on here, Adam? I mean, I think the COVID weirdness is kind of over. So what else do you think this could be?

Adam Turnquist:

Maybe someone fat fingered, some data input <laugh>? I'm not really sure because these are huge revisions. They caught me off guard. I was doing a presentation last week and the previous reading on some of the data was well below the updated chart. So I thought I had something wrong in my data feed when I was refreshing these. 'cause I could not figure out why these estimates had changed so much. But this is certainly a message that consumers doing much better than we thought, at least per the economic data. I think the market did a great job of sniffing that out over the last year because it really shrugged off some of this data that suggested, look, the consumer's slowing down. We heard it from some retailers, but when we get the revisions, markets seem to be right here. And the trend here obviously a big upgrade.

Adam Turnquist:

I think driving that, and this is something Jeffrey Roach has been really talking about throughout the year, is that income growth is outpacing inflation growth. If you look at the end of December 2019 and you just look at overall income growth, it's up about 26% compared to PCE, for example, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. That's up around, I think 16% or 16 to 20% depending on when you look at it. So the fact that Americans are making more and also making more than the rise in inflation, I think that's contributing to this uptick in disposable income that we're seeing play out in the economy.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I think I'll dismiss the fat finger risk. We've heard somebody even bring up fraud <laugh>. I don't think that's going on. I think just in the new economy, the digital economy, I think it's just tougher for the economists to get this data close when they first estimated. And, you know, more details come out. It is just a very difficult economy to put your finger on. And then you have all the stimulus that's been kind of seeping through the system as well which has made things a little bit more opaque and difficult to explain sometimes. So here's the same concept on this chart. It's just the savings rate. So when you give consumers more income than you thought you had, you're gonna have more savings than you thought you had, right?

Jeff Buchbinder:

And so the savings rate is now 5%. The pre-pandemic average as shown here is 6.5%. So we're almost to the pre-pandemic average when all everybody's been talking about is how the consumer was tapped out, drained their savings and all of that. And that was gonna lead to recession. Now, that story started like two years ago. I mean, even we bought into it to some extent, but now here we are couple years later, and the consumer is just still going strong. I checked the Atlanta Fed GDP now tracker and it's two point half percent that's still in a, kind of an above trend, above potential growth rate for this economy. After we just did 3% in Q2. The consumer is still going strong, and Jeff Roach thinks we're gonna be kind of above trend for the next couple of quarters.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So pretty good economic outlook. You can take recession off the table in the very near term, unless there's some very unusual exogenous shock. We do still think that the labor market's slowing. So, you know, Jeff also makes the point in this commentary that even though we got this massive beat on the jobs number last week 254 versus expectations of 150, even though that was a huge upside surprise, the rest of the labor market data is consistent with a slowing job market. So here's a couple examples. Actually, the quit rate, which is the green line, that's down. That means fewer people are leaving for better jobs or higher paying jobs. When the labor market gets a little more challenging, fewer people quit. Makes sense. The other data point here is the one that became popular when the Fed started to you know, talk about cutting rates, right?

Jeff Buchbinder:

And why they were delaying, I guess, cutting rates. The job openings to unemployment ratio, this was really, really tight. In other words, there weren't enough people unemployed to fill the openings, right? That's a tight job market. Well, that's kind of normalized and we're right back to where we would, we would hope to be, you know, closer to one. But basically we went from two to one in just the past you know, 18, 24 months or so. So there again, evidence the job market is, is slowing. So so that's the weekly commentary. Check it out if you're interested. Jeff also talks a little bit about the port strikes. He talks a little bit about artificial intelligence taking our jobs, which I say that a little bit tongue in cheek. Although with the AI advances, Adam, they could probably do a pretty good job with this podcast if we, if we wanted to go that route. <Laugh>, let's transition to technicals 'cause that's why you're here. Certainly although you can comment on everything with your breadth of knowledge, I'm really interested in your thoughts on some of these charts especially oil and the tenure. But let's start with the S&P. You know, I know you briefly commented on this upfront, but what do you see for the S&P? And then we'll roll through. You got a good number of charts today.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, we have a decent amount. Hopefully AI is not too good at drawing trend lines, although I wouldn't be surprised if they can come up with a chart like this. But this is the S&P 500. Of course, we broke out to new highs. Things slowed down a little bit, though we didn't have this big overbought reading. And the lower panel, we highlight the relative strength index, it's just a momentum oscillator. So we didn't get really overbought readings there or internally. And then when you look at breadth, we didn't get this big expansion in overall market breadth. And I'm showing the shorter term breadth, that's the new four week highs and lows in the green and red respectively. And what you typically see when you rally the new highs over by conditions in a big jump in the number of new four week highs, we did not get that.

Adam Turnquist:

We've actually seen lower highs in breath and lower highs in momentum. That suggests that we're getting a little bit of a deviation, not indicative of a market top by any means. But I, I think more suggestive of a potential pause or a pullback in this rally in terms of support levels, if we do get a pullback, I think some likely scenarios, if you get through the, call it the 20 or the 50 day moving average, maybe 5,400, that goes back to those September lows. And then if you get, you know, a sizable pullback, the 200 day moving average right around 52 50, probably unlikely between now and year end to get that kind of 10% pullback. But certainly I think you could see some, some volatility come back into the market and test some of these levels, whether that's the prior highs or again, that 5,400 level back near the September lows.

Jeff Buchbinder:

People talk about the October surprise. We have an election, as we all know, coming up in about four weeks. I wouldn't totally dismiss the chances of a pullback. But yeah, I agree with you. 10% might be a little much.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah. And we're gonna enter a, well, we're now in a seasonally week period. If you just look at the average October return for the S&P going back to 1950, you're up on average 0.9% higher 60% of the time. Sounds pretty good. However, when you're in an election year, it's really a complete opposite story. You're down on average 0.9%, and you're higher about 50% of the time. I think it makes sense intuitively, as you get closer to that election day, there's a lot of uncertainty. And you know, Jeff, the market does not like uncertainty. It's kind of sell now, ask questions later. Again, so when you look at October, pretty weak period, Bespoke did some interesting research on October as well, in terms of its peak to trough drawdowns. On average for October, you get a 4.6% drawdown. That's the worst across all 12 months. And then also it has the highest percentage of a 5% or greater drawdown. 33% of Octobers have had at least a 5% drawdown. That ties September as the worst month across the board. So again, I think it's a buckle up story for October, probably going all the way into November once we get through this election.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, our friends at Bespoke do some great work. So glad you called that out. So we know we had a strong first nine months, Adam, I think it was the strongest first nine months for the S&P since 1997, if I'm not mistaken. So here you took a look at what that means for the rest of the year.

Adam Turnquist:

So we ranked all of the January through September returns, and this year we had the ninth best January through September rally up 20% for the S&P 500. We ranked all those years and put 'em into quintile. So your top quintile, that's your best return for those periods, your fifth quintile, that's the lowest returns during that period. And we wanted to really understand how does the market perform after a strong first nine months? What's the average return between October and December? And you can see there on average the S&P up three and a half percent, still positive, but when you compare it to all years, a little bit below average, up 4.3%, you can see on the bottom panel. And then we also did the same type of analysis just for October. And you can see there down 1.7% on average during these strong momentum first nine months, that compares to the average return that we talked about earlier of 0.9%. So suggesting that maybe we'll see a little bit of a pullback, we'll call it, or some downside selling pressure here in the market. Only 33% of Octobers were positive during those top quintile years as well. So more evidence suggesting we could see some volatility ahead for October. Could be a little bit of a spooky one as we get closer to Halloween.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I think we'll have to continue our tradition later in October and write about what scares us. But we're getting a little ahead of ourselves. So next is oil. And this, the bottom panel, what you put there I thought was really interesting. But what do you see when you look at the the oil chart? We're up again today,

Adam Turnquist:

Up again today on the risk premium being baked into oil as we really don't have a great gauge of what's gonna happen next in the Middle East. Of course, I think the market's waiting for Israel to respond. Are they gonna attack any Iranian production facilities for now? Crude oil moving higher, getting closer to the 200 day moving average. But you can see still contending with this downtrend that's been in place really since last year at this time. And all of these relief rallies have ended at that downtrend. So more work to do before you start talking about 80 plus dollars oil. That would be the line in the sand to reverse that downtrend. But if you just zoom out a little bit longer, you can see it's more of a range bound market, and that's reflective of the supply and demand backdrop. You still have OPEC plus coming back with more production and their quotas being removed starting in December.

Adam Turnquist:

We have record production here in the U.S. And I think China, the largest importer of oil, still a show me story in terms of how the stimulus is gonna really reignite their economy. We're not seeing evidence of that despite all the excitement and equity markets. And speaking of excitement in markets, you can see the chase in this latest rally with crude oil. The bottom panel is showing the skew for calls and puts. So when that is above zero, that means calls are being bid up. These are outta the money calls that we're using as people chase the rally. And we're actually, it's a little hard to see, but that's a two year high in call skew based on 25 delta calls. So out of the money calls there being bid up again to a two year high, we like to look at that as more of a contrarian indicator because these big spikes in call skew often coincide with peaks in oil. We just came off a relatively low put skew ratio here in September that also lined up with the lows that we witnessed in crude oil. So bit of a contrarian sign that we're seeing in the options market as people chase this rally. There's certainly a fear of missing out, I think, going into this right now.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, so for those of you who aren't really familiar with the options market, it just means you've got really aggressive speculators going long relative to those who are hedging or going short. And that as soon as you get to a point where really all the speculators are all in, there's nobody else to speculate further and you just sort of roll over that's trying to put it into layman's terms <laugh>. And that's I think that probably, those comments certainly suggest maybe fading this rally. But again, all bets are off. If Iran loses a significant portion of their energy production you got, I mean, it's hard to put a number on it, but you certainly have a spike in oil probably north of 90. We'll just have to wait and see. My personal view is that the odds of that are low at this point that, you know, Israel's trying to target terrorism more directly, rather than the full state of Iran. But we'll see what happens. So here's the 10 year yield, I think, I mean maybe China oil and the 10 year all sort of going after the title of the most interesting chart <laugh> for the week. And most, you know, hottest topic I would say. This one is really important. I mean, bonds are important obviously, but it really influences the equity market and valuation. So what do you see for the 10 year?

Adam Turnquist:

This one's probably categorized as a move to fade, maybe not quite yet because we're still in a downtrend. You can see for 10 year yields on the top panel had consistent lower highs here. Technically this looks like a relief rally off oversold levels. We came in retested right around those August intraday lows. Very, very oversold in terms of yields moving lower. We've had a significant bounce the other way as the market rerated rate cut expectations. And now we're seeing this rally go to 4% a psychological level. But I think the levels you wanna watch going ahead right around 409, that coincides with some prior highs. And then the 200 day moving average at 416, that's gonna be a key level start getting through the 200 day moving average. That raises the question, are we gonna actually reverse go back and retest those prior highs that we witnessed in the spring under that higher for longer mantra that we heard about? But for now, this looks like a classic relief rally off over sold levels that downtrends certainly still in play. And I think that's probably the, the, the trade here is to fade this. So we're starting to get a little bit over bought on the upside the bottom panel. You can see RSI getting close to that 70 technically overbought reading. That's typically where you see these relief rallies tend to die out with momentum.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, we've had a 375 to 425 forecast on the 10 year yield for the entire year, I believe. And that's mostly helped. It's interesting how you know, we just bounced off the low end of that range and now there's a lot of resistance before you get past the high end of that range. So that range still looks good here. And let's hope it holds because the U.S. Government pays enough in interest on treasuries, <laugh>, we don't need to raise that bill anymore than we already have. So moving on to semis. I mean this is such a big industry group, Adam, and everybody talks about tech and how tech is really the whole market. It's so large, but semis are a big chunk of the, of the tech sector. I think about a third you might know that exact number, but really important group to watch. In fact, some people think it's the new transports and that it calls the economy.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, some people will use this in Dow theory instead of transports confirming they'll look at semiconductors and it is about a third of the tech sector, the largest of any sub-industry group. Obviously a key measure of what's going on in AI as well, or a barometer there. And it's been interesting to see this rally in semiconductors, very constructive to see buyers come in right around that uptrend near the 200 day moving average, not only in August, but also again in early September, coming in at a little bit of a higher low there. And now we're just kind of stuck between the August lows and that 200 day moving average. So I threw this chart in there just 'cause I think this is an important chart to watch this week as it gets near this kind of make or break moment. So if we start breaking below the 200 day or those September lows, that would suggest we could see some downside in semiconductors.

Adam Turnquist:

Of course, if we break above the August highs, I think that would be very constructive for the broader market as well. Likely setting up for a retest of the prior July highs. I think most importantly is this bottom panel. We compare the semiconductors to the S&P 500 really to understand what's the relative trend, are they outperforming, and what's the sustainability of that trend? You can see really since the bear market lows that semiconductors have led this market very consistently. However, as we went into the summer months, we started to see relative strength in semis fade starting to roll over a little bit too early to make the call that this is a top in semiconductor leadership. Could be just a pause or a consolidation phase. But if we start undercutting and breaking below the September lows here on that ratio chart that would suggest semis are now underperforming or likely to underperform the market. That's I think technically at least a character change in this bull market away from semiconductor leadership. A little bit of a concern as well when you think about semis no longer leading the market, especially given that they are for many people, standards a leading economic indicator.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. But then at the same time, people want this market to broaden out. So here's an example of the market broadening out a little bit because you've had semiconductors show signs of, you know, passing the baton, if you will, and the market held up just fine, actually better than fine. 'Cause here we are at all-time highs.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah. And it's really where, where's that capital flowing? And it has been more cyclical to your point. Industrials have started to outperform financials have had a pretty good run as well. So that broadening theme, you don't want it to be defensive. Like we witnessed in August, that was when you started to see staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate outperform. That's not what you want to see when you're trying to recover from a bit of a pullback. But for now it looks a little bit more of a, a cyclical tilt.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yep. And within that cyclical tilt, we like industrials still. Well, and we like communication services, not a traditional cyclical, but fairly growthy and you know, market sensitive in terms of beta. So let's turn to China again. I think this one is fascinating 'cause we had, you know, China was up 25% last week, at least the Shanghai composite was. And I think you even cited this number of 75 as a target back when we initially bounced. So I mean this is a massive move. Does, does anything about history related to these massive moves tell you where this thing might, might peter out, or could we keep going?

Adam Turnquist:

It's, it's tough to say. We're coming into a key area of resistance here with China coming up. This is the MSCI China index, getting close to 77. You start breaking that. The next real target if you want to use retracement levels and some prior lows and highs is around 90. I think that would be a realistic level, especially when you think about all of the short positions in China that really need to be covered. Bank of America, their latest fund manager survey had short China as the second most crowded trade coming in behind long, Magnificent Seven positions. So very crowded, at least at the fund manager level of China being short, not to mention very under owned on the long side. I don't think there's many people owning China and having exposure in the emerging market space here. So underloved might be a little bit of a catch up trade, especially if you think about window dressing into year end.

Adam Turnquist:

And if this is the, the hot Q4 trade as it seems to be over the, at least the first couple weeks here, could have more room to run. Again, notice me saying trade versus investment, because this is typically how you play China. If you're betting on a long-term trend change that suggests China's gonna start outperform the U.S. I think you might be disappointed even though you have very good breadth. We highlight that in the middle panel. 95% of MSCI China components above their 200 day moving average, nearly a hundred percent of them hit new four week highs. That by itself, those breath metrics, when you see that breath expansion usually coincides with a significant bottom. But again, on a relative basis here, you're fighting a perennial under performer versus the U.S. But we do think there's some more upside to go. We'll get some more stimulus announcements maybe even tonight coming from policymakers in China. I think that's gonna be key. It is again, a show me story with the economics. We haven't, we've had the stimulus talk and new new monetary policy and what is that gonna mean for actually data coming out? And that's gonna be a big test, I think for China in this rally going forward.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, it's pretty amazing that even after that massive move, we're still basically back where we were maybe 18 months ago <laugh>. So maybe there is more catchup trade there. I think that the market's gonna tell us whether it believes in this stimulus or not. It looks like it is a bazooka as some people are calling it. And I guess we have a bias to expect President Xi and the Chinese government to follow through on all these measures. And frankly, it looks big enough to, to really make a difference. So whether it's a trade or something more than that, I think you are gonna see people you know, pile on here for a little bit, but yeah.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, and the fixed income market seems to agree that this is a meaningful move here with stimulus, you are starting to see, for example, 10 year yields in China or 30 year yields start to reverse downtrend having a big move higher as they reprice growth expectations. And I think it's one of those good examples of the adage that markets stop panicking when policymakers do. And clearly I think what they've delivered in terms of stimulus is a bit of a panic. At least that's the market's perception of how they're viewing it here.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Well said, well said. So let's, let's move to previewing the week ahead. So Adam, it's really about inflation and bank earnings, I would say more than anything else. But what else do you think people should be watching this week?

Adam Turnquist:

I always like the Small Business Optimism Index from the NFIB. That's always an interesting one to read. A little bit different tone coming out of that recently. I would say with small businesses, it'll be interesting as well to see how they view what the Fed is doing, of course with the September reading. I'm not sure when the survey was, was conducted. I don't know if it will get the, the cut in there or not, but it'll be interesting to see how small businesses perceive that. And then the Fed Minutes, we'll get some clarity, I think, on how the Fed looked at 25 versus 50 basis points. Not sure if that will matter as much as the market seems pretty set on 25 basis points potentially going forward. That jumbo cut off the table a little bit after last week's employment report.

Adam Turnquist:

I think that's gonna be it. I mean, it's, it's all gonna be inflation. Don't expect any big surprises. That hasn't been a you know, CPI or PPI have been mostly in line for the last several months. I think economists have done a pretty good job of nailing the numbers here with inflation. However, of course, if we do get an uptick inflation in inflation with CPI, you could see more of the second wave, the starting come to, starting to come out with potential inflation risks. We talked about the input costs with services, the ISM data that coincides with that. So it could be it could move the needle a little bit, but I think it's really more about the labor market at this point from the fed's perspective.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, if you get, I mean, thankfully the port strikes were fixed, but if you get another surge in energy prices from here, right on top of these base effects that I mentioned and this little bit of an uptick in inflation that we were already seeing, then, you know, that could influence the election. You could end up with some un unpleasant inflation here in the next month that could potentially affect how people vote. So I think that that's gonna be interesting to watch. But I agree with you that maybe this CPI isn't that interesting or even this PPI it's probably more about watching oil prices and watching the job market because even though the Fed won't say they're declaring victory on inflation, they have clearly shifted their focus to supporting the labor market as opposed to biting inflation. That's a very important, important shift.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So I guess the minutes might give us a little bit of perspective that we didn't already have, but those are usually not particularly insightful, especially after we get Fed speakers that start hitting the circuit. We have a ton of Fed speakers this week. We also have treasury auctions, so it's gonna be a big week for yields for sure. So watch that really closely and watch oil. So we'll go in there. Thanks Adam for, for joining this week. Really interesting to hear your thoughts on the charts and much else. You certainly are very adept at commenting about a lot of different things. So thanks for sharing your wisdom. Thanks everybody out there for listening. We appreciate your support of LPL Market Signals. We will be back with you next week. Take care everybody.