Stock Market Bottom Watch: Some Boxes Are Checked

Jeffrey Buchbinder (00:00):

<Silence> Hello everyone, and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Happy St. Patrick's Day to all who celebrate. Jeff Buchbinder here with my green shirt and with my friend and colleague, Kristian Kerr. Certainly Kristian, been a very volatile weak and change here for markets. So thanks for jumping on this week and helping us make sense of all of the craziness.

Kristian Kerr (00:24):

Yeah, no problem. Looking forward to it.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (00:27):

I'm sure things will be crystal clear after we are done with this half hour conversation. And if you believe that I got a bridge to sell you. So it is Monday, March 17th, 2025. And here's our agenda for today. We're going to talk really quickly about last week. I mean, it's really, it's kind of a simple story. The S&P 500 did enter correction territory and you know, we know the reasons why. Trade uncertainty with a little bit of economic growth fears mixed in. Next we're going to give you some things that we think people should be looking for in terms of trying to call the bottom. We talked about a lot of these in the Weekly Market Commentary this week, which you can find on lpl.com. Next, we're going to give you some charts that we think are really helpful to give you or some of the nervous investors in your life.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (01:23):

A case for staying invested long term, and some of these some of this analysis is really powerful, I think help calm some jitters. And then finally, of course, we'll preview the week ahead where we have the Fed on tap. So starting with market recap the S&P barely slipped into correction territory last week before the surge on Friday. So Kristian, we were just talking about that Friday surge. It really wasn't necessarily driven by any piece of news. It just seemed like the lack of news was enough to drive a little bit of a balance. So we went from basically, you know, down 10 to down eight.

Kristian Kerr (02:08):

Yeah, I agree with that. You know, when you're in an environment where you're getting, you know, kind of wild headlines you know, a few times a day, and then you finally get a day where that doesn't happen you know, like the markets embrace that. I also think, you know, there's a seasonal aspect here too that everyone's fully aware of. So that probably, that probably was in the back of people's minds as well. But, you know, obviously after the, the last few weeks we've had, you need more than more than just one session to signal you know all clear, but definitely a step in the right direction.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (02:42):

Yeah. Yeah. Everybody has their bottom checklist. We have our bottom checklist, and you, you're not going to get all the boxes checked cleanly right at the low <laugh>. So this is that's just not the way it works. So you've got debates on both sides. Generally our take is that we've got a little more time to go before we're comfortable jumping in, but we do think we're pretty close to the low in terms of level. One of the things we'd like to see is for the cyclical and high beta sectors to do better. And that really wasn't the case last week. We don't really count energy, energy was up, but you know, generally speaking in the you know, the more cyclical sectors, the sectors that are sensitive to the economy, the sectors that generally like up markets, they didn't do so great.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (03:29):

I mean, financials held up a little bit better than the broad market, but you didn't see anything better than the market on out of tech. You certainly saw a little underperformance in communication services where the, you know, a lot of digital media is, and you saw underperformance out of consumer discretionary. That is certainly a high beta sector. So haven't seen really that yet. Consider that box unchecked. But that's certainly something we'll be watching. Anything else here you want to call out Kristian, maybe on international markets?

Kristian Kerr (04:05):

Yeah, I mean, I just think on the international side, you know, they've been essentially outperforming since in November. So I think that's been part of the story from a U.S. equity standpoint, just given that you know, foreign capital coming into the U.S. you know, chasing the U.S. exceptionalism thematic has been an important driver, especially the last two years. And with, you know, Europe doing quite a bit better, China doing quite a bit better you know, you're seeing less money chasing U.S. equities as opposed to, you know a year or two ago. So I think that's been part of the, you know, part of the reason why we've seen this correction so swift is, because you don't have that kind of support that we've had from, from foreign capital like we did in in prior years.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (04:57):

Yeah, great point. So that rotation, some of the money coming out of the U.S. or out of U.S. tech is going to international and some of it's going to more defensive sectors, to precious metals, to bonds - just a number of places. But, but certainly more money coming out of that theme than going into it. Here's, well, speaking of precious metals I think that's probably the first thing that jumps out to you as you look at this page, had a really big move last week in gold and silver. So you saw the precious metals index over 4%. But at the same time you had bond market weakness. The, you know, you had some spread widening, not quite to the level where you would start to worry about recession, but we did see some widening with high yield bonds, underperforming, investment grade corporate bonds underperforming on a week that you know, saw the U.S. bond market dip just a tad. Despite generally cooperative inflation numbers, any thoughts either on the bond market here, Kristian or anywhere else you want to go? Commodities, Forex?

Kristian Kerr (06:02):

Yeah, I mean, I'll just echo your thoughts on credit, right? I mean, I think one of the reasons I'm still fairly optimistic on equities is because you haven't seen too dramatic of a widening in credit. I think if you know, a lot of this move, this corrective move has been, you know, yes, there's been a lot of uncertainty and then that's mapped into some concerns about economic growth. But, you know, if we were seeing credit spreads start to really kind of get out of hand, that would be a strong signal that things are getting worse. But the fact that they've been pretty well contained, I think is a supportive factor for this market. And yeah, on FX, I mean, I would just say, you know, we, we've had a pretty big move lower in the dollar, which kind of just dovetails what I was saying a few minutes ago about foreign capital not coming into the U.S. as aggressive as it was.

Kristian Kerr (06:57):

And you know, I think, I think you, you see that in the FX market. I mean, the Euro you know, went from, you know, right around just above parody to, you know, trading at 109 today, right? In the course of just a few weeks. So you know, I think we're seeing a lot of those flows really directly in the FX market. It's probably an area most investors don't watch too much but I think it's something to keep an eye on here of late just given that rotational foreign flows becoming such an important dynamic here over the last few weeks.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (07:32):

Yeah. You know, last year a lot of folks were wondering, is it time to go into international, right? And what we said at the time was, we need the international, or we need the tech exceptionalism or U.S. exceptionalism theme to stop working, right? Because, you know, Europe can't keep up with that, and we need the dollar down. Well, not only have we gotten those two things, but we've gotten those two things in spades, right? And so this is why you've seen one of the biggest, you know, rotations out of U.S. and into international in several years. So, I mean, of course, the hard question is will it continue? We're not necessarily making that call today, but it is something that we are certainly talking about every week in our investment committee meetings.

Kristian Kerr (08:17):

Yeah, there's, there's been a lot of head fakes over the last decade on the international rotation for equities. So I think everyone's a little bit gun shy. And I would just say on the effect side, yes, we've had a big move, but when you step back and look at, you know, how big the move higher on the dollar was in the preceding years, we've basically been in a range kind of over the last year, we're still in the middle of that range. So it's difficult to say, you know, Hey, we've got that dollar tailwind of it going down, so you've got to be in international equities. We're just, we're just not seeing it quite yet. I mean, it could very well be happening, but you know, the confirmation of, you know, the dollar breaking down you know, we just, we just haven't had it yet. We've had for the most, you know, you could probably label this as a severe corrective move, but we still haven't broken kind of levels that you would that you would want to see broken to signal that we have indeed seen kind of that more monumental shift happening.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (09:17):

No, we'll see if the Fed this week gives us more of a reason to sell the dollar I mean, they're probably going to have to be a little bit dovish, but we can talk about that more when we get to the week ahead. So let's move on to the bottoming checklist again. This is just some things that we're watching to try to at least give us a better odds of being right mitigating incorrect timing which is really all you can hope for in situations like this. The market, you know, market of course is uncertain. So speaking of uncertainty this is a chart of the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index against the VIX. And you can see here this uncertainty index is as high as it's been really ever, and it's pretty much at the COVID highs. So, you know, we're not saying that this is going to go higher, we're just saying that typically corresponds to a VIX level that's higher than where it is now. So you know, we think maybe 30 is a key level to watch. We're not quite there yet. Maybe did we, I don't know if you saw that, where we touched in terms of an intraday high last week on the VIX.

Kristian Kerr (10:36):

Just under 30

Jeffrey Buchbinder (10:37):

It didn't quite touch 30? Okay. Yeah,

Kristian Kerr (10:39):

We've gone there a couple times. I guess it depends on which VIX you look at, right? There's a VIX futures and a VIX cash, but I think mostly talked about cash

Jeffrey Buchbinder (10:48):

Yeah, good point.

Kristian Kerr (10:49):

Yeah I think this chart does you know, explain a lot of what's been driving the market, right? You know, just the broader uncertainty on trade that's kind of mapped into higher uncertainty about the economy. And, you know, markets don't like uncertainty and, and volatility goes up as a result, right?

Jeffrey Buchbinder (11:05):

Yeah, it makes perfect sense. You know, if you backtest this index when uncertainty gets really high and peaks, which maybe it's doing forward returns are really, really good. So this, you know, we're not, again, we're not quite at the point where the VIX really tells you it's a great opportunity, but we got pretty close last week. So Kristian, you, you threw this one in. This is not in our Weekly Market Commentary. Again, that's on lpl.com, but this is a really good sentiment gauge. It's a basket of sentiment indicators all put into one composite - the Ned Davis Research Sentiment Composite Index. What, what is this telling us, Kristian? Is this saying that we're at the bottom here, or is this, you know, is this a box we can check?

Kristian Kerr (11:52):

I think this is getting close, pretty close to a box you can check on this one. Yeah, I mean, I think a few things I would note, but yes, you know, sentiment, it's interesting. You know, I you know, you and I did a call last week where I mentioned in our outlook, we you know, we were, you know, we called the outlook, you know, pragmatic optimism, right? And essentially we were cautiously optimistic and a lot of that because sentiment was extreme to the upside, which you can kind of see in the chart. We were near kind of optimistic extremes. So there's a bit of a contrarian element to this that when too many people are positive, then who's left to buy and vice versa? When everyone's negative, then who's left to sell, essentially?

Kristian Kerr (12:32):

And this has gotten down the lows that are, you know, basically the same level as we were at during, you know, the depths of the COVID crisis. So that's pretty, that's pretty pessimistic extremes that we're seeing. So I think this is one that we could definitely I think check in terms of sentiment has gotten pretty lopsided here fairly quickly. But again, you know, more of a contrarian tool that suggests that you know, maybe, maybe people in the market across these different sentiment measures have gotten a little bit too negative.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (13:07):

Yeah, the bear market low in October 2022 was even, you know, a little bit less negative <laugh> sentiment than, than what we saw last week, which is really hard to believe. So yeah, check that box sentiment is, negative enough. And now we're actually at the point where we're looking for signs that it's improving. So this next chart from the Weekly Market Commentary, it's actually the same kind of story as a chart I'll show here in a little bit. It maps the max drawdown per year against the returns for the year. And then we've labeled the average and labeled this year. So what this average dot means is excluding dividends, the S&P 500 is up about nine, ten percent per year. But you have a drawdown within each year, on average of about 13.5, 14%. So that gets you to this green dot.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (14:11):

The orange dot shows you that we've had a ten percent draw down so far this year. That's the max as of last week. Thankfully, we've come off that a little bit. And then you're you know, down four plus percent year-to-date on the S&P 500. So, you know, odds are we're going to move maybe a little bit closer to where this green dot is now. Hopefully ten percent's the biggest draw down we get, and hopefully we do better than ten percent for the year. But moving in that direction is probably a good bet. And the message here is just that volatility is normal. It's kind of a cost - a toll that you have to pay if you want these attractive long-term returns because, you know, market timing, going in and out and missing these bad days is really tough.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (15:00):

So I'll show you another look at this here in a minute. This next chart is just a technical look at the S&P. This was Wednesday of last week, so it's not super current. But it does show you that, you know, we broke the 200-day moving average. We certainly got people a little bit nervous. We only have about 40%, actually, this is even lower than this now. We only have 40% of the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average. We'd like to see a little bit more breadth. Now, the caveat to that is you actually want really bad breadth in the very short term. So we want to see - most S&P 500 stocks below the 20-day, I'm switching averages with you short term, 20-day moving average. We want to see ten percent of stocks or less above the 20-day. But then on the 200-day we want to see actually more breadth on the upside to provide evidence that a durable rally is potentially here or coming. So we're kind of in that transition period, I guess. So Kristian, did any of that makes sense to you? First of all.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (16:14):

<Laugh>. Yeah, <laugh>. And, and second of all would you add anything to that? Because you want this flush. That's really what I'm trying to say. You want this flush of selling.

Kristian Kerr (16:24):

Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, use breadth in a couple ways, right? You know, when the market's going up, you want to see the market broadening out. But I think in this type of scenario where we've had a steep correction, we're almost looking at breadth to use it as another gauge of oversold of, of the market kind of exhausting itself to the downside. So that's where you look at kind of the different timeframes, the 20 or the 50 kind of, you know, how many stocks the S&P are above these moving averages. It's funny because it depends. If you want to kind of get that, that exhaustive move, you'd probably want to see even the, even the 200-day register a little bit lower. I was looking back at some charts and at the really, really big lows in the market you know, it's been, it gets down to 20 sometimes, right?

Kristian Kerr (17:14):

So you know, it all depends. But I think we start seeing kind of the 20- and 50-day moving average breadth metrics start to kind of hit those extremes and kind of 30 air, which we got pretty close to last week, that starts to be enough to tell you that from a breadth standpoint you know, we've seen a lot of selling that probably indicates that we're at that point where you should start to stabilize. So that, you know, I would just add that. And then you know, the other point I would make would just be that, you know, yes, we've broken some near-term technical levels, but look at this chart, right? We're still very much in an uptrend.

Kristian Kerr (17:57):

You know, I think one of the easiest ways to gauge that is the slope of the moving average. So that dotted line is the 200-day moving average widely watch indicator. Yes, we broke it, but it's still sloping very much upward, right? So it's kind of, you know, that's the bigger picture is that, you know, it's not uncommon in strong uptrends like we've had since October of 2022, that you get moves like this that don't do real big damage over the bigger picture. You know, in an ideal world, we would've, you know, we would've come to 200-day and bounced right off it, but it's not unheard of at all to go under it for a little bit, test some other support levels and then kind of build your base and start making your way back.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (18:42):

Yeah. And if your back test breaks below the 200-day moving average, it's really not as negative as you might think. You know, odds are, you stabilize and go back to it. Although obviously there are examples to counter that, certainly.

Kristian Kerr (18:57):

Well, yeah, where it gets more negative is when you break, but you, when you've started to slope down, right? Because now that's telling you that the trend has started to turn or lose some of its momentum, right? So you break that, then it gets a little bit more negative. But I tend to agree with you when you break under an upward sloping, moving average is not as you know, it's not as negative as people might think it is.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (19:24):

Yeah, agreed. And then in terms of support levels like 5,500, you've got some support in there between 5,500 and 5,550. We're about a hundred points above that right now. As we're recording this on the 17th, we are at 5,662. So got a look, you know, a few different levels of support that aren't too far down which is good to see. So, the last chart from the weekly is essentially showing folks just how powerful some of these rallies can be off of a correction low. So again, we define a correction as a drop between 10 and 20% on the S&P, so it's not a bear market, just a correction coming off of those lows. You know, where are you on average three months later, six months later, and 12 months later? These are really attractive returns. So, you know, you'll probably have some volatility in between.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (20:25):

And obviously we don't know where the bottom is. In fact today you can't even buy the, you know, a correction dip because we're only down eight. But if we do correct again and our end, you know, end up with a draw drawdown of more than 10%, the risk reward starts to get really attractive. Because again, if you assume there's, it's a correction, not a bear market. If you assume you're not going to have a recession, then you know, you're probably looking at maybe five points downside and 15 upside, or even 20 upside. So that's kind of mental math that we do, certainly helps folks stay invested during volatile periods. So I mean, again, it's hard Kristian, because you don't know when this clock is going to start because you don't know when the actual low is. But boy, the opportunity for a 28% return in 12 months off of wherever this low is pretty good.

Kristian Kerr (21:21):

Yeah. Yeah. And then we've talked about it too. You know, when you like break under things like a 200-day you, that's when you tend to get kind of the bigger moves. And a lot of that is because you've had all this kind of clearing out of the market. So all these crowded positions are no longer as crowded perhaps start getting crowded going the other way where people, you know, maybe got short the market. So that creates impetus to start moving higher. So, you know, it makes sense to me that, you know, when you start getting into these kind of percentage type declines, that the possibility of having a pretty sharp snapback to start it back to the upside is pretty good because you've, you know, the market's been cleared out versus you know, maybe got a little bit of an overhang of stale positions, stale longs, whatever you want to call it. So, it's something to always kind of be aware of that when you do start to stabilize and turn back up, it tends to happen pretty fairly you know, quickly.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (22:19):

Yeah, and if you stack the biggest up days in the last 20 years, just rank them, you're going to see a lot of 2008, 2009, and 2020, right? Bear markets. It's just actually going back further, you know, 2001, 2002, when you're at peak pessimism, that's when it's easiest to you know, drive a spike because you can get some of those pessimists off and you know, turn them into optimist. It's fascinating, actually, we should do that. We, I'm going to do that study here and just look at that. Maybe that's something I'll bring you next week, although hopefully we're not still talking about extreme volatility a week from now. We'll see. So let's transition. I mean, there's some overlap here because when you try to make the case for staying invested long term, you do some of these studies that, you know, show you how costly it can be to miss best days or, you know, how likely, you know, how the odds are in your favor if you stay with the market and all that.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (23:30):

It kind of overlaps with trying to find a bottom. And but I think these are really helpful perspective because, you know, everybody gets caught up in the day-to-day movement, the daily news and all of that. But if you step back, <laugh>, this is a lot longer term than daily. This is a 125-year chart <laugh> of the DAL. And the annualized return over that entire 125-year period is 10%. So sometimes you're above it, sometimes you're below it, but you know, you go back to that trend line of up 10%. So that's really what we're trying, this is without dividends. This is really what we're trying to achieve. And the down days or the down years are a part of this, right? Sometimes you're below, sometimes you're above. So great long-term returns. And why do we get those long-term returns?

Jeffrey Buchbinder (24:21):

Well, because earnings grow over time. So the furthest history we have on earnings goes back to 1950. It's pretty far. And here the average earnings growth per year on the S&P 500 is 8%, or the predecessor index, the S&P 90, which you have to use in the 1950s. So there has been a little bit of valuation expansion, but still the point holds that you just hug this trend line. You go below it sometimes. You go above it sometimes, but, you know, long-term earnings grow at a solid clip. And that's really what underpins this market. If you try to market time and you're out of the market during these volatile periods, when some of those biggest updates tend to come, then the penalty can be severe. So this is the, you know, you fully invested your return.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (25:12):

This is since 1990, so a more recent period than what we just showed on those prior slides. But still a pretty long period of time here. If you're fully invested 9.8% return price return, miss the best day of each year, you're only up 6.1. You miss the best two days, you're only up three. Now it's impossible to have that experience, that exact experience <laugh> to be in the market every day except those best days. But it's just proven the point that the penalty can be pretty extreme. And these best days tend to be when the markets are most volatile, like periods, right now. Here's another way of looking at market timing. This is a study done by DALBAR. So thanks to Franklin Templeton for sharing this with us. A DALBAR study that shows the penalty that investors experience, on average, the whole pool of investors aggregated, on average by moving out of the market.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (26:16):

They're not achieving the types of returns that you would get if you just averaged all these asset classes together. Now, they're nowhere close on U.S. stocks, but obviously most people don't just go a hundred percent equities. But even if you average bonds, international stocks, U.S. stocks, REITs, the average investor's only achieving a 3.4% return. That is, depending on how you calculate it, probably a penalty of between four and 5% for being too active for being out of the market, cash drag, all these other things that work against investors. So this is another way to think about the penalty for not being in the market, because long-term returns are pretty darn attractive. If you, you know, if you're not in these investments, you're not going to experience those returns. So next here, this is just a color coded way of looking at returns by year. Point here, is that you're almost never down 25% or more.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (27:20):

We've only had two of those since 1960, both really tough times, 2008, 1974, and even down 15 to down 25 is quite rare. We had one in 2022 that we remember, 2002 and 1973, were the other, all these years are associated with recession or financial crisis. I know there wasn't an official recession in 2022, but it might as well have been, it certainly felt like one for many or all of us. So again, odds in your favor, staying invested year to year you're very, very unlikely to have a big down year. Alright, so here's the finish, Kristian, this is where I'm going to bring you in. This is another way to illustrate the same chart we had earlier with all the scatterplot, it shows annual return. This is my favorite chart of all time, favorite investing chart of all time anyway. The blue bars are the gains by year for the S&P 500. And then the orange diamonds are the max drawdowns in a given year. So here, you see we're down about four on the S&P, and then this drawdown of 10.1%.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (28:36):

A lot of these up years have pretty big drawdowns, Kristian. So, you know, your thoughts on this study or any of the others that I just went through,

Kristian Kerr (28:47):

Yeah. One, market timing's hard. That was my,

Jeffrey Buchbinder (28:52):

Or impossible.

Kristian Kerr (28:53):

That was one of my takeaways. But no, I think one you know, I think if you go back and do the numbers, it's like one out of every 10 type of moves like this ends up actually turning into a bear market, right? So I mean, the odds are just you know, in your favor just on that alone. So, I think that's a key part of it. But yeah, I mean, you know, you're in an asset that's getting you, you know, pretty close to double digit returns on average over kind of longer term horizons. And, with that, you have to expect a little bit of volatility. So it's kind of the price you pay for those returns over time. But, asset allocation does work over time. You just have to let it happen. And, you know, I think a lot of all this is just to you know, it's very easy to kind of get sucked into the day-to-day headlines you know, all the uncertainty, what have you. But you know, I go over time, a lot of this stuff is fairly clear from an investment standpoint. So I think that's really kind of the main takeaway here of all this.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (29:58):

Yeah, my favorite year on here you know, it has to be the pandemic year 2020, where you had a 34% drawdown, and yet you ended up, I think 19% that year. <Laugh>. Yeah, that was or somewhere in the high teens. I can't remember the exact number, but that was a really tough year to stay invested. And we had that massive, massive drawdown, but, you know, got it back quickly. It was kind of like 1987 in a way. Here's another big year, right? 87, you had a similar drawdown and you ended up, up, I think a couple percent. So it's tough to hang in there. We get it, but the rewards are worth it.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (30:48):

All right, I'm so excited about this chart. I get choked up. <Laugh> <laugh>. So that was probably the Indian food I had for lunch. All right, <laugh>, let's do the week ahead. It is Fed week, and here you see the economic calendar, which really isn't that exciting, except for retail sales and the Fed. So, you know, retail sales, we are expecting a bounce back Kristian because we had the weather driven drag in January and we, you know, we generally got it. And then so your thoughts there and then on the Fed this week,

Kristian Kerr (31:29):

Yeah, it wasn't really enough to signal much of anything for me. The retail sales data, you know, the market reaction was kind of interesting, particularly in bonds. But wasn't too big of a factor for me, at least the way I look at things.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (31:44):

Yields are down like three basis points right now.

Kristian Kerr (31:46):

Yeah. And in terms of the FOMC, you know, I, you know, I think it's kind of a little bit of a sideshow at the moment in terms of in terms of everything that's going on. You know, I don't think it'll be as impactful as it would've been you know, without kind of a lot of what we're seeing from a headline standpoint. And I just think a lot of it too is just the fact that, you know, the hard data hasn't yet really translated in a meaningful way yet for the Fed to be able to move. So, you know, I think they'll keep preparing us for I think an eventual cut later in the year. But you know, in terms of here and now, it's going to be more, you know, more sideshow commentary than anything else. I don't really expect too much from a market standpoint, short term.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (32:35):

Yeah. I mean, everybody's going to be wondering how Powell's going to handle the tariff situation. It it's just so uncertain for all of us. Yeah. So I can't <laugh> I can't imagine, you know, we're going to get any more clarity from Powell. I mean, he doesn't know any more than we know, frankly about what the Trump administration is going to do and how our trading partners are going to respond. It's just, yeah, hey, you saw the chart, the economic uncertainty chart, it is through the roof. So until we get more clarity on tariffs, it's going to be hard to, you know, expect much from the Fed. And then it's going to be hard for this market to bottom until we get a little more clarity. We don't have to have clarity, we just have to have a little bit more than we have right now.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (33:23):

And then I think that can really trigger a nice rebound. So we're staying patient, we're getting closer to where we would say, you know, maybe it makes sense to add some risk for folks who are already fully invested or at target, let's say, with their investments, which we are. But getting closer to thinking about adding some risks. So that's where we're at. Not only did we do the Weekly Market Commentary about all of this stuff that we talked about but we also did a couple of blogs last week. And today actually, today's blog is about credit spreads and how they are really not signaling recession, not even close. And then last week we did a couple of blogs on market volatility, again, on LPLResearch.com, right where the weekly commentary is, but under the heading research and then blogs.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (34:15):

So, a lot of good content there to help. Some similar to what I just went through with Kristian, but you know, just in general to help you know, kind of keep perspective on market volatility. Because when you're in the moment it's really tough and some of us sometimes make emotional decisions that we regret. So, hopefully that stuff and what we just went through can help. So that is all I have. So I think with that we'll go ahead and wrap. So thank you Kristian, for jumping on this week. A very volatile week that follows a very busy week last week. So everybody thank you for listening to another edition of LPL Market Signals. We will be back with you next week, and hopefully we'll have some green on our screens to talk about at that time. Take care everybody, and we will see you next time. See you later.