Not Buying the Dip Yet but Getting Close

Jeffrey Buchbinder (00:00):

<Silence> Hello everyone and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here with my friend and colleague, Adam Turnquist. Adam, it is liberation week and we're going to talk tariffs, but we're also going to talk charts. How are you today?

Adam Turnquist (00:17):

Good afternoon. Doing well, and excited for Liberation Week <laugh>. We'll see what that brings.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (00:23):

Yeah, I don't know if the market feels liberated from anything yet, but hopefully we'll at least get some more clarity. We wrote this week in our weekly market commentary about some of the fog clearing this week. Probably not all of it, but we will get some tariff clarity, whether we like that news or not. We'll just have to wait and see. But more clarity is certainly coming. So it is Monday afternoon, March 31, 2025, last day of the quarter. As we are recording this, stocks have bounced back nicely off of their early morning lows, but clearly there's a lot of jitters out there. We'll start with the quick recap of last week, which is a pretty simple story. We were down and tariffs were certainly a big reason why. Then Adam will walk through some charts to help us assess whether we are washed out enough to buy the dip or not.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (01:24):

Next we again, wrote about tariffs in the Weekly Market Commentary, so we'll try to help you assess the scope here. We obviously don't know what we're going to get, but we can maybe give you some scenarios or at least some ranges of what to expect to help you interpret the news on Wednesday. And then lastly previewing the week ahead. So there you go. Liberation Day, that's not all that's going on this week, but that is certainly the big news. So starting with the market recap, stagflation and tariff angst to put the S&P 500 back near correction territory, we are down pretty close to 10%, again, from the all-time high in the S&P 500, although with a little bit of a bounce back, just a hair below that. It seems to me like most of this weakness was tariff concerns, but that's tied into to stagflation concerns.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (02:22):

Because we've got a weak PCE report. It gave us a little, maybe a little more stag than we wanted and a little more inflation than we wanted. And we were down sharply on Friday. In fact, that was the whole loss for the week. Down 1.5% for the week and down a little bit more than that on Friday. We still don't see recession, but certainly the odds are rising, our odds of that are about 30% at this point. So that's really a story, simple story. So, Adam, how about intra market performance? I mean, it was clearly a week where you saw the defensives hold up better. What would you highlight there in terms of sectors, styles, regions,

Adam Turnquist (03:08):

Really just a risk off backdrop. As you mentioned, most of the damage done on Friday, very high volume, broad based selling pressure. As investors, I think de-risked a little bit into this week, haven't really seen a capitulation yet in terms of institutional flows coming back into the market. Just to give some backdrop there, a lot of the buying has been more retail focused. One bright spot, we'll call it, is the bounce we witnessed in consumer discretionary, obviously a little bit more risk on type of sector. That did get a little bit of a bounce, oversold conditions that were commensurate with kind of the pandemic era lows in terms of how oversold that sector was. So, did get some buy in there last week, you could see on a five day return up, 0.1% energy. Another one that's getting a little bit more of a defensive bid, but really more risk off. And the big one of course, is tech. That was a big drag on the broader market. I think three or four of the Mag 7 names were down over 4%. And tech led on the way up certainly seems to be leading on the way down here. Pretty oversold, looking a little bit washed out there. So a sector we'll certainly be watching this week.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (04:19):

Yeah, absolutely. And we're seeing a little bit of dollar weakness still. So that gave you a little bit of support in terms of international equities. But the declines there were really pretty similar to those that you saw in the U.S. and it seems like today maybe the market is finally realizing, maybe it realized it before, but it's acting like it's realizing that tariffs are really bad for international economies as well as the U.S. So continue to watch U.S. versus international. International, having a great year so far. Of course, turning to the bond market it was pretty flat. We are getting a little bit of a move down in rates today. So, you know, tariffs are inflationary in the very short term. So that caused rates to move up a little bit, you know, as the tariffs were being priced in. But now we're seeing that come off and you know, markets are more viewing tariffs I would argue as contributing to slower growth and maybe even maybe disinflation after we get through this initial wave of tariff implementations.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (05:34):

Recessions are going to bring rates down. Recessions are going to bring inflation down. So if the market price is in a higher chance of that you're going to see the bond market we think do pretty well. So you know, the tradeoff between stocks and bonds is starting to look a little bit better for stocks than bonds, but we continue to like the bond market here. Adam, how about commodities? I mean, precious metals just keep on going higher. I think you'll have to call that out. What do you see in there or across the, the rest of the commodity complex?

Adam Turnquist (06:05):

That seems to be the default setting for risk off, moving into precious metals, gold continuing to rally to record highs. Within gold it's been really interesting to see the flow of funds with commodity related ETFs that hold gold, seeing a pretty big surge in inflows week-over-week. That's fueling this I think fear of missing out, rallying gold, arguably very overbought. And there's some technicals that suggest maybe it's due for a short term pullback, but the trend very much higher in gold, silver participating there as well. You can see having a pretty good week. And then copper probably gets the story of the week. It did rally to record high territory. Of course some of that was related to tariffs that are expected to come sooner than later. So a lot of copper traders or investors started to front run those tariffs and buy domestic copper.

Adam Turnquist (06:55):

They're actually selling overseas copper in London, shipping it to the US ahead of those tariffs. So we've had a huge premium in Comex copper over the London metal exchange copper. That was a pretty crazy week for copper prices coming off a little bit overnight in today's session, but certainly constructive, even though some of that is tariff related, it's hard to argue and make a call for a recession here, at least globally, maybe when copper's rallying to record highs. I think that's a pretty good leading indicator for the economy and certainly a good sign here. Maybe we're not going to see a recession.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (07:30):

Yeah, tariffs good for commodities in the short term. We'll see what happens beyond that. So thanks for that, Adam. Let's keep moving here and get into your chart section. Again, I think the question people are asking is, are we washed out enough to buy the dip? So I'm interested in your thoughts here and we will start with the S&P 500.

Adam Turnquist (07:54):

So number one question I've had, is it time to buy the dip? Is this the lows? Technically here you can see some of the damage we've experienced over the last few weeks. We broke below the closely watched 200 day moving average. We had this kind of short-term relief rally right to that 200 day moving average. The January lows around 5,700. And then that's where momentum stopped, we started to roll over. So the big test this week is going to be how the market handles those March lows, right around 5,500, we'll call it. If we can get a bounce there, I think that would be very constructive. Maybe that the worst of this correction is behind us. So a big test at that 5,500 area for bulls this week. Intraday today we did get a brief retest and are holding that level. So a good sign overall, at least on a short-term basis.

Adam Turnquist (08:43):

We'll see how the rest of the week plays out. There has been a lot of structural damage to this market on a longer term basis. You can see in that middle panel the percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average only at 43%. Coming up a little bit off the lows, but still below kind of this bullish 50% reading that we'd like to see. So another metric that we're looking at, and then of course momentum that RSI or Relative Strength Index on the bottom panel, that's just an oscillator that we like to look at that bounces between zero and 100, 50 is considered the bullish threshold. And we briefly got to that 50 level and started to roll over. You can see the recent reading at 37. Now, technically that's bearish territory, but we're off those oversold levels. Internally, some of the washed out conditions have evaporated a little bit. Of course we didn't get all of the washed out signals that we're looking for, but I think for a longer term investor, when you're trying to identify a bottom, maybe you could argue we're close enough at this stage for the tactical trader, maybe on a little shorter term basis, I think you could probably wait for a little bit more evidence here for a sustainable rebound.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (09:55):

Yeah, if we get news on Wednesday, that drives us much below where we are right now, I think that's when we really get ready to buy this dip. It's, you have to kind of mix the fundamentals with the technicals here to make a good decision. But I agree we're, we're getting really close to where we'd be comfortable potentially buying this dip. So next up weak first quarter we're, I mean, we don't know where we're going to close today obviously, but we are down about 5% quarter to date with not a whole lot of time left. So what does that mean for the rest of the year, Adam?

Adam Turnquist (10:33):

Yeah, I think it's safe to say we're going to have a down quarter for the S&P 500. Historically, that has not been a good sign for the rest of the year. And we break it down here on this bar graph. You can see in, we'll call it sea foam green. I'm not sure what the official color is there, but when the S&P 500 is down in the first quarter, this goes back to to 1950, you can see how it performs for the rest of the year on average up 2.4%, the median there negative 1% and higher only 48% of the time. So momentum tends to be relatively flat to call it mixed, I guess overall for the rest of the year, especially when you compare that to a positive first quarter when the S&P or the S&P historically puts up an average gain of about 9.6% there higher 88% of the time. So not necessarily saying that this this year is over, but odds for a positive close between now and year end, maybe a little bit more mixed at this stage. And it's just one of those momentum indicators as momentum begets momentum and when you have a weak first quarter, that momentum tends to, to continue that way. Of course, we think where we're at now in terms of the more tactical positioning odds are probably a little bit higher than 48%. We finish higher on the year, I think from here.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (11:52):

Yeah, remember we're getting the policy spinach now and we will get the policy candy later. So that's the tax cuts and the deregulation it's a sequencing problem. So there is absolutely still an opportunity here for a solidly positive year. I'll also kind of pat the team on the back here because we were pretty cautious coming into this year, which was obviously the right approach, you know, targeting a year end range on the S&P 500 between 62-75 and 63-75 well below the average Wall Street strategist. And same thing on earnings 260 for the year versus consensus coming into the year. Some somewhere around 270, whether you're looking at bottom up analyst targets or strategist bottom down top down strategist targets still close to 270 and we, we really feel good about our 260. So I think we were, we did a pretty good job of warning folks that we were in for a volatile year and, and maybe more modest gains, certainly consistent with this study that you ran. Adam let's go next to tech. And boy, that's a, that was a pretty big move down. I guess the main question I would have is, is it going to lead the way back up again?

Adam Turnquist (13:16):

That's what we're hoping for here. You can see that the tech wreck, we'll call it in Q1, I think as of Friday the sector was down about 11% compared to the S&P down five. Very oversold here, but still trying to find some support. You can see last week we broke below the March lows and now we're contending with more or less those kind of August lows level. So another key support level where maybe the tech sector bounces here, very, very oversold. The internals here look more washed out. You can see on that bottom panel, 18% of the sector above their 200 day moving average, that's as low as it gets going back to 2022, we were in a bear market, not our case here for the, the tech sector or the broader market in general, but would like to see this tech sector rebound a little bit and to see some inflows going back into the tech sector. That would be another good sign for a sustainable recovery in the S&P 500. When you think about the waiting here, Jeff, I think it's around what 30% of the S&P so hard to imagine that the S&P rallies back without the tech sector at least participating. And I know you've talked about the valuation side here with some of the big tech names, maybe resetting a little bit where this price correction has allowed fundamentals and price to get closer to equilibrium a little bit.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (14:34):

Yeah, that's right. Mid tech is only at about a 20% premium to the market in terms of forward PE that's down from around 50. And that wasn't too long ago. So tech has absolutely seen valuations compressed quite a bit. And so I would argue that they're fair right now. So tech doesn't really need a valuation reset anymore in our view. It just needs some technical stability and to clear this tariff uncertainty period, which hopefully begins in earnest this week. I guess my question here for you my other question Adam, is how do you make the decision between, you know, a buy on weakness in other, you know, a contrarian buy versus a sell on a breakdown? Because the charts pretty much look the same to me.

Adam Turnquist (15:27):

That's, always the challenge, right? I think it's, it all boils down to weight of the evidence approach because if you just look at it in isolation on each chart or each indicator, it's a little hard to weigh the decision process in that, for the tech sector here, you have to think about how oversold the sector is. What's the rate of change? Are you seeing momentum divergences? What are the inflows versus outflows? So it's, it's a process not just a single breakdown on the chart that would get you to that contrarian call. And of course I think it helps to having a team of other analysts. Can we go to them and ask, is the economy going into a recession? What's the confidence there? I can ask you about the fundamentals and are they holding up? Is the AI story dead American exceptionalism dead? And I think we can throughout that process kind of assess with pretty good confidence here if we're going to officially roll over or if this is more just a resetting of expectations a little bit. And I think arguably a much needed one. When you think about how the tech sector came into the year, there was a lot of enthusiasm for AI. There was extremely overbought conditions in the tech sector. So maybe a healthy reset here is due.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (16:44):

Yeah that AI CapEx is, is still coming at some point, you know, maybe those expectations will be ratcheted down, but that's still a big driver of corporate profits in 2025. And that's what allows these stocks to be considered reasonably valued at this point. So until we see reason to think that the Deepseek news and all of that is really impacting the spend on AI we're going to continue to expect earnings overall for the S&P to grow high single digits this year. That, that is consensus still actually consensus a little bit higher than that, but our view is that's still coming and that's supportive. There's still other supports for this market. Feds cutting, you know, inflation probably still is going to come down after a little kink from tariffs and no recession. Most likely. There's, it's hard to say if there's still a Trump put, but at some point we would argue that there is and you know they'll do some damage control if this gets too ugly Because it can affect their, the Republicans' midterm election prospects. So I know let's get a little bit away from, from tech, but at, at some point we think this market and probably pretty soon think this market finds its footing and we think tech finds its footing supported by the attractive earnings prospects. So let, shift to the bond market now, Adam, this is the 10 year-yield. I mean it's, it's come down quite a bit from its highs, but it didn't really go anywhere last week. What do you see here on this chart, right?

Adam Turnquist (18:24):

And this I'd throw this as another potential catalyst for the tech sector, maybe less worry about higher rates. When we look at this technical backdrop for yields, it's a pretty sloppy chart I'll give you that. We've broken this shorter term uptrend off the September lows. We're starting this, we'll call it a new downtrend that's developed really since December, January timeframe. And that's what was tested last week, right around 430, 435. You can see the, the 50-day at about 441. Now I didn't draw it in here Because I didn't want to get too technical, but it does look like a potential head and shoulders top formation. The key to those are breaking the neckline, that's about 410. So if you can get through the 200-day moving average, which now is support around 422 break below 410, I think you could be talking about a sub 4% tenure in pretty short order.

Adam Turnquist (19:16):

How we get there, hopefully it's not a risk off rotation and it's more of a "inflation's coming down" story and the Fed's going to continue cutting. That's going to be the big driver of equities and how they perform. On the bottom panel, we highlight just the breakeven rates you can see in orange moving higher, that's a bit of a problem when you have higher inflation expectations along with worse than expected economic data that's in blue, the city U.S. Economic Surprise Index. So when that is moving lower, that means economic data coming in worse than forecast. So that big of a gap is a bit of a problem for equity markets. Not just, it's not just tariffs. Some of the economic data, call it underwhelming a little bit. We'd like to see that move higher as well. And some of those breakeven rates move lower. Driving those breakeven rates at least recently I think has been this bounce in WTI crude oil of course, crude oil leading inflation indicator, bouncing off some pretty oversold levels, but still hard to make the case we're talking about an uptrend anytime soon in crude oil. So I think it might be a little bit limited there.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (20:21):

Yeah, this is what makes the stocks versus bonds decision tricky because you know, we're waiting for bond yields to move down a little bit more, but at the same time you've got a stock market correction potentially to buy. So really starting to like stocks and bonds, <laugh> a little bit more, but you only got a fixed pie. So let's go to international. This has been a huge rotation, of course, Adam, maybe not as much in flows as you might think, but certainly in performance. In fact, I think this was the biggest quarter of outperformance for the US since the 1980s, if I'm not mistaken. So what do you what do you see here on this relative chart? Is it enough to call it a trend reversal?

Adam Turnquist (21:06):

It's getting there, but I think you have to put it in context. And that's why I brought this very, very long-term chart because there's a lot of excitement about international stocks. We're showing that with the MSCI all country world Index XUSA and we're comparing it to the S&P 500. So when this is moving lower on this ratio chart that is S&P 500 outperforming the rest of the world, we'll call it. And that has been the trend here since what, 2008, 2009. You've had little fits and starts where international stocks looked really good for maybe a quarter or two, but then the longer term trend has reasserted itself. Of course part of that big story is American exceptionalism and big tech I think is a big driver there, and we don't think that story is dead. But the trend here is now back above, I think I have the 10 month moving average, which is close to the, the 200 day equivalent on this monthly chart. But you can see previous times we've had blips about performance in international stocks only to be rejected at kind of this longer term downtrend. So not quite there yet to make the full blown pound the table buy here on international stocks. Technically it's had a great run. I think it's maybe a little bit stretched on the short term basis. I would not be surprised to see capital flow back to the U.S. here, especially if the S&P 500 starts to bounce off those March flows.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (22:29):

Yeah, and it's tough to make a fundamental case for Europe in particular to be in better position than the U.S. We'll see again, what happens with tariffs. But we're still growing faster, we still have better earnings growth and certainly the innovation of the tech sector and U.S. exceptionalism you would expect to warrant a premium for many years to come. I'll also point out that Europe's not that cheap anymore. Actually it's about, so the gap between valuations in the U.S. and Europe has narrowed by about 12, 13% just in the last few months. So what was a 40% discount is now more like a 27. So think about that too, that that gap is, has closed quite a bit. You know, international is still much cheaper, but maybe not quite as enticing as the outperformance continues. So let's turn to tariffs. Certainly this is getting the most attention of really anything out there in markets right now. And I want to start with this chart. This is from the Weekly Market Commentary. We know that uncertainty is high. This is a uncertainty index that's driven by media reports. We've talked about this before but I think it's worth highlighting again, uncertainty is higher than it was in 2019 when Trump put in tariffs the first time and we had a trade war with China.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (24:00):

If you look back at how the market did after that peak in uncertainty, we rallied 7% in the next three months and then we rallied 16% in the next five months, which then preceded the pandemic. So of course the selloff in February of 2020 and March had nothing to do with tariffs. It was the pandemic. So really nice double digit rally from the peak of uncertainty. So could we do that again, possible? Probably not quite as much upside here because the tariff threat is more serious and the tariffs are likely to be more lasting rather than pure negotiating tactics. But that doesn't take away from the fact that we have upside as those negotiations happen.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (24:51):

So next here's the Economic Surprise Index again that you just saw on the 10-year yield chart, but this is the S&P 500 and you see here that stocks and economic data have been connected. Now, tariffs are a part of this too, but stocks are following the data. The Economic Surprise Index has started to tick up a little bit. So expectations might now be low enough or maybe they will be very soon that we can start to see a string of positive surprises. We'll see what happens with payrolls on Friday, but that could be a catalyst for stocks, again, after we get through this tariff uncertainty period. So I think that's something to be encouraged by. So next we think earnings estimates are still way too high. I alluded to this before, some analysts are starting to bring in strategists starting to bring their targets down, but we think we got more, more to go.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (25:52):

So this is another reason I'm not in a rush. And LPR research is not in a rush to buy the dip because we're still resetting earnings expectations and economic expectations while we wait for tariffs. So you know, we've seen a little bit of a pickup in pre-announcements. Earning season starts in just a couple of weeks and we're going to see quite a bit more of those. But once we get through the month of April, we're going to have quite a bit of information. The market should be in a good position to assess just how much lower earnings have to go. Again, still growth, but maybe more like 7% rather than 12%. And by the way, tariffs are if we get kind of what's been announced already, that's already a 2% hit to, to earnings if we get more than has been announced already.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (26:46):

You could talk about this in terms of tariff rates. So right now we're about 3%. We just went up about five points with what was announced already. So call it 8%. We could go up another five if some of these other plans go through. So that means an average tariff rate of 13%, that's an additional 4% hit to earnings, right? Every 5% is like a point or two. So we have some more work to do to get estimates down but we still think our 260 number is reasonable. Maybe a little bit more downside risk, but we feel good about our estimate there. So let's move again, Weekly Market Commentary on tariffs, just trying to help you assess the impacts and the various scenarios. There is a wide range <laugh> of potential outcomes here. Depends on how much in non-tariff you know, like VAT tax, non-tariff retaliation or non-tariff barriers are assessed by the Trump administration and put into place, you know, we think some of that will probably happen, but it's likely to be a little bit more bark than, than bite.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (28:05):

So with that, let's go onto the week ahead, Adam. I'll let you weigh in on the tariffs that I just talked about here or anything else on the week ahead that you want to hit here. Jobs report or anything else.

Adam Turnquist (28:18):

On the tariff front it's like you've mentioned, it's so fluid. I was updating a presentation for later this week that I'm doing for some clients and I had a slide on tariffs and I started to put the bullet points on trying to keep it real high level. And I basically gave up because as I'm making the bullets, I don't even know if they were valid by the time I got to the end of the sentence because that's how fluid the situation is. So I've kind of thrown my hands up and we'll see how the price action holds up and how the market reacts to the headlines. But I, I do think it we're maybe that the uncertainty will not go away, but that idea of peak policy uncertainty, that is what we could get this week with the April 2nd Liberation day as <laugh> as it's so called.

Adam Turnquist (29:01):

But it'll be nice as strategists maybe to move on and to other, other areas of the market and, and focus on some stuff. So it's a liberating for us as well. <Laugh>, maybe we can get back to the basics here with, with our analysis. But on the economic calendar this week, certainly jobs are going to be interesting. You know, Jeff Roach has talked about our Chief Economist keeping an eye on those initial jobless claims and those being a bright spot, we've held pretty steady on the low 200,000. If those start ticking higher, that would maybe raise the recession on but labor market's holding up pretty good. I mean, I know it's slowed down. You can see for March 130,000 jobs for non farms expected, but unemployment at 4.1%, that's still pretty good. Not necessarily recessionary. And then the other of course is the ISM data is going to be interesting.

Adam Turnquist (29:53):

I think more so on the, the services side of things. Of course, that's more of an impact to our GDP. So still expansionary, we'll see if the manufacturing moves back into expansionary or holds expansionary territory expectations are for a sub 50 contractionary print. So that would be another interesting one to watch. And some of the commentary you get in that ISM data, I always like to go and read the bullet points I imagine it's going to be a lot about tariffs, uncertainty, <laugh> and how that weighs on sentiment. We'll find out later this week.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (30:27):

No doubt. And we've, we've seen all of that uncertainty translate into very weak consumer confidence numbers. And CFO confidence, by the way, very high percentage of CFOs surveyed expect a recession. Not our view. But certainly we will acknowledge that the odds are, are rising. For nervous investors out there though, I mean, just keep in mind that, and this is still pretty normal volatility, right? The average max drawdown is per year is 14% and we've only done 10. So, and of course the average year gain in the S&P 500 is close to 10%. So we're right on track. We're just getting this volatility early in the year before we really had any gains in the bank. It's just going to be probably a backend loaded year. And and we still think we can go higher. Just remember tax cuts, deregulation are coming and more tariff clarity is coming that we think will, will help the markets get a little bit more comfortable in the short term.

Adam Turnquist (31:39):

Get through that spinach, as you mentioned earlier, to get to the sweet stuff. I like that. I'm going to use that sequencing with my children. I think <laugh> a little bit more. They, they like to start with the candy, not so much the spinach. And yes, market seems to be the same way.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (31:53):

My kids are older, so they're a little bit more balanced in, you know, liking vegetables and candy, but <laugh>. But yeah, with the young kids, that's tough. I actually heard I think it was Jefferies, apologize if I'm getting the firm wrong, but the, one of the strategists called it a mullet year where it's business upfront and party in the back. So I think that's very clever. It really is. We're going to have to take our medicine upfront and, and we are you know, not to get into whether tariffs are, are good or bad, but, because certainly there could be some positives that come out of this. We acknowledge that, but it's a hit to earnings, it's a hit to growth and we have the risk of retaliation, so there's some certain costs to it. We get that as well.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (32:47):

But the good news is coming and, you know, the Republicans still want to do well in the midterms. Actually we have elections this week that will be interesting, right, for those vacant house seats, which will be very interesting to watch. And Powell's comments this week, later in the week will be interesting to hear as well. Because The Fed stands ready. If the market gets weaker and the economic data gets weaker because of tariffs or for any other reason they're going to step in. So maybe we get a little bit of a Fed put before we get a Trump put. I don't know if you want to react to any of that, Adam, before we, before we close out. But boy, there's a lot to digest, but down 10% from the recent highs with still earnings growing and the economy growing, probably pretty close or closer to a bottom. Closer to the end of this than the beginning.

Adam Turnquist (33:43):

Certainly no need to panic. As you mentioned, the average draw down about 14%. If you apply that to the S&P, it's I think 15% to get to the August lows, just to give you some reference points in terms of major support levels for the market as well. So even a 15% drop from the high in February would not be that far out of the ordinary for a typical calendar year. And as you mentioned, we have potentially two puts in the market. The Powell put and the, the Trump put. I would imagine one of those would kick in between now and the August lows or somewhere near there. So certainly some catalysts. And as you mentioned, the fiscal, the pro-growth agenda with deregulation tax cuts, there's some narrative changes maybe on the horizon once we get this tariff and certainty, maybe the clouds part a little bit there.

Jeffrey Buchbinder (34:33):

Yes, and again, the AI productivity is coming, it'll take several years, but it's coming. So certainly a lot of reasons to be excited about the opportunity for upside after we get through this volatile period. So with that we'll wrap. Thanks so much, Adam, for jumping on this week. Really great to hear your perspective on the charts and how we use technical analysis to identify potential entry points. For all of you, thank you for joining. Thanks for listening this week and greatly appreciate your support of LPL market signals. We will be back with you next week. See you then. Take care.