Fed Still Likely to Cut Rates in 2025 Despite the Strong Jobs Report

LPL discusses the move higher in interest rates, dissects Friday’s jobs report, explains why the bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt, and previews this week’s economic calendar.

Last Edited by: LPL Research

Last Updated: January 14, 2025

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Jeff Buchbinder:

Hello everyone and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here, your host for this week with my friend and colleague, Jeffrey Roach. Dr. Roach, how are you today?

Jeff Roach:

Doing fine. Looking forward to getting back in the saddle here. I missed my opportunity to be part of Market Signals last round. So glad to be in it today.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We did the old switcheroo, brought in Lawrence and Adam ahead of you in the rotation, but glad to have you back. And actually, it's good timing because we got a jobs report to talk about from Friday, and certainly inflation as well, because of course, that's how a strong jobs report translates into higher yields, and that's what stock and bond traders and investors are focused on today. So we'll spend a lot of the of this call talking about that. We've got a few other things to mix in as well. So here's our agenda for today. It is Monday, January 13, 2025. We're recording this a little after lunch on Monday. The, you know, the market recap's all about rates, so you're just going to hear about rates really for the entire agenda, frankly. We'll talk about the jobs report, key takeaways, which is why I'm glad, Jeff, that you are here.

Jeff Buchbinder:

One of the reasons, of course. Next, we'll go over the Weekly Market Commentary, which Adam Turnquist wrote, our chief technical strategist. Adam, did a great job of walking through, you know, why we would give this bull market the benefit of the doubt despite the sell off late last week. And further weakness here on Monday as we're recording. And then we will finish up with a preview of the week ahead. And inflation data is really the most important data to watch, but of course, we'll continue to watch the tragic situation in LA. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all of those affected by the wildfires out there, which we would not expect to impact the market. But certainly, it could have some impact over time. And then you know, you've also got the start of earnings season, so that certainly has to be part of a week ahead discussion.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So let's keep going. All right. Market recap, all about rates. And it certainly was. So this is a five trading day look, but if you just looked at last week's four trading days, you know, with the Jimmy Carter funeral holiday in the middle of it, we were actually down almost 2% on the S&P. And again, rates were really the primary reason why we had small caps do even a little bit worse than that. And then the Nasdaq even worse than that, down over I'm sorry, Nasdaq down a little bit worse. And then the Russell 2000 small cap index, even worse than that down over 3%. So it was really a risk off day risk off week rather. And you know, a lot of people are asking, when is this sell off going to stop? We're already down 5% on the S&P 500.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So we'll talk about that in a minute when we get to the charts. Just a couple things to pull out here before I get to the jobs report for you, Jeff. So first small caps are interest rate sensitive, so keep that in mind. They are cheap. But one of the reasons we've been a little bit cautious on small caps is the risk of rates rising. They have more debt and it's a little harder to refinance debt for small caps. So certainly have a slight preference, at least in the near term, for large caps. I also want to point out cyclicals, you know, have done okay relative to defensives. So that tells you that this bull market is likely to remain intact. It's of course not foolproof, but that is our bias. In fact, consumer staples one of the worst performers over the last five trading days.

Jeff Buchbinder:

That is a defensive sector, but you've also got financials and technology among the weaker sectors over the last five days. So there's not a clear trend where the market is looking for defensive plays. Now you are seeing gold rally, that is, of course, a defensive play. We saw a little bit of strength in Europe last week. I'm not so sure that's a defensive play, but you don't have to worry so much about the central bank tightening there because the ECBs likely to continue with their rate cuts. Other than that, there really wasn't any place to hide on the equity side. What do you think, Jeff? Was this an overreaction to the jobs report or is this maybe generally how you would expect things to play out as we unwind Fed rate cuts?

Jeff Roach:

Well, I think we're still working through these new expectations for 2025 for the Fed and how they're going to manage through it with the inflation side. It's interesting to think about, you know, where the defensive plays are and the call out you made there, Jeff, which I think is great because you look at consumer discretionary versus consumer staples, right? So discretionary is coming off of excellent, excellent run with the rolling one year, just fantastic relative to staples. And it was staples, you know, that got the hit over the last five days. So, it's not necessarily yet defensive per se. One thing wanted to call out too is, you know, Japan still having a bit of a struggle. Again, it's somewhat of a monetary policy focus. You know, we have inflation reaccelerating to Japan, and the Bank of Japan is a little bit nervous on being too clear on what their management is going to be throughout the year. So yeah, a lot of this is driven by policy. And I think some people might be thinking, is there a rising risk of a policy mistake? And that's, yeah, I think that's going to be something that the market's going to have to work through in the near term.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, certainly remember 2018 when the Fed went a little too far or was about to go a little bit too far, and then they reversed course. That was a significant sell off, right? That was really close to a bear market. We don't think that's going to happen again this time, but certainly it's a risk that you have to be aware of. The energy sector's been a bit of a safe haven lately. You know, we have this bounce in crude, you see here, up over 6% over the last five trading days. So energy has been leadership, not the leader that we want, but for those of you looking for a little bit of a safe haven in the short term, maybe the energy sector and gold again, are places you can go. You see here gold was up a little over 1% on the last five trading days.

Jeff Buchbinder:

And then the dollar continues to go higher. In fact, the dollar is now up 14 of 15 weeks. So really steady ascent there. And you know, you had a 7% rally in a pretty short period of time. This will be a big talking point when we get to earnings season here in just a couple of days. Of course, when rates rise, bonds fall. So you see here, losses across the board in the bond market, whether you were a rate sensitive, high quality or not as rate sensitive and lower quality, you suffered last week. So we say it all the time when bonds have a rough go, you just, when you get better yields, there's a better opportunity going forward. So, I'll say that again. But in the very short term, we certainly have risk of going to 5% on the 10-year. Anything you want to add there, Jeff?

Jeff Roach:

Yeah, just the two things on crude and the dollar. Crude of course, you know, a lot of policy statements from the Biden administration these last few weeks here, adding a lot more pressure on Russian oil. So, that's certainly adding a little bit of the volatility. We, of course, as we're recording here on the 13th you know, the early trading hours for the 13th here today certainly brought a lot of price volatility for WTI, West Texas Intermediate. So that was interesting. I mean, something that markets have to work through. Not sure if it's necessarily going to filter into other areas of the market, but I think it's just illustrative of some of the challenges still with the Russia, Ukraine conflict. And then, of course, wanted to comment on the dollar just real briefly. The march to parody we've been talking about in recent weeks referring of course to the dollar and Euro rates there, you can see that on the bottom right part of the screen is where we have FX or Ford Exchange matrix here.

Jeff Roach:

So that's probably going to continue when you think about Fed most likely being a little bit tighter for longer in terms of policy that's going to be bullish for dollar. And then at the same time, you have a European Central Bank being very aggressive and working through loosening up monetary conditions to help the ailing European economy. So that March to parody will continue when you think about Euro dollar.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, signs of some stability in European economies, potentially, Eurozone economies, not necessarily the U.K., but that combined with the rate differential. You know, maybe folks are sniffing out a bottom in relative performance for Europe. We're not quite there yet, but that is certainly something to watch. So let's turn onto the job support, Jeff, because this is of course, what everybody's talking about right now. You know, we had this strong report, but, you know, not all the jobs data has been so strong lately. So, you know, help our listeners sort out maybe the jobs data or how much to believe that Friday payroll's number in terms of, you know, assessing the strength of the job market.

Jeff Roach:

Well, it's really important, especially with non-farm payroll releases, to remember that there are revisions, there are just measurement errors on the month-to-month numbers. So it's really, really helpful for investors to take a longer-term look, this is a 12-month moving average. So for 2024 monthly average gains were around 186,000. If you take just government out of the picture, private payroll average monthly gain last year was only 149,000. That's down from 192,000 in 2023. So if you're a skier or snowboarder, like I am, you like that red line. It's a little steep. Yeah, you want a black, you want a double black, you got your steep, but you know, you want some smooth terrain. We're going back to normal. That's why I put this title in here, Jeff. Returning to normal, looking at the red line, just the note of caution is to say, all right, well, if you look at different surveys, perhaps they're telling you a different story.

Jeff Roach:

Survey. The blue line is what we call the household survey. A lot of people, of course, you know, our listeners aren't necessarily going to remember, wait, household survey, establishment survey. The key takeaway here is when you look and read or hear in the media about the unemployment rate, that's from the household survey. When you're hearing media talk about payroll gains, for example, in December, 256,000 gain in payroll jobs. That's the red line. It's important to remember those are two very different surveys, and they're telling us two different stories right now, hence a need for a little bit of caution. But the key takeaway here is this kind of slow, measured, deliberate, slow down in job gains is actually what the Fed wants to see. Where, you know, we're not seeing an extremely tight labor market, really hot growth in wages, which would in turn imply more inflationary pressures from the hot labor market. Labor market is indeed cooling. We take that from having a longer look, not just the month data and not focusing. We're definitely recommending, not focusing on just that monthly report that came out last Friday.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. And even if you look at just maybe a three month, over three month look, you still see slowing, right, Jeff? I mean, this is really an outlier of a report. The trend is still in place.

Jeff Roach:

Yeah. And of course, the reason why we're talking about this is because of course after that Friday morning release where it was a little bit stronger than expected that certainly turned out to be somewhat negative for markets, right? Markets sold off because, hey, we have this really strong job report that means the Fed's going to maybe even tighten their next move. That's an overreaction. I think that's kind of the key point here as it relates to markets.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. And I've actually seen some economists out there talking about noise in that 260ish jobs number, and that it was really more like a true 190 or a true 200,000, something like that, which would be much more tenable for the bond market. Still, we had this really big sell off in the bond market, of course, as you saw and on the prior slide. And we just unwound a another rate cut, right? We just went from two to one pretty quickly. So it's obviously something that you have to pay attention to, you know, it's debatable how much of it is debt and deficit, you know, market worries about Treasury supply being digested by the markets, right? Because we got to do a lot of Treasury issuance to fund the deficit. And then we've got inflation, not just wages, but in general, we've got some pretty sticky inflation data, right, Jeff?

Jeff Buchbinder:

Coming out of the services sector. So you know, we may see 5% on the 10-year. That's the bottom line. Maybe it'll be short term because our forecast is still for lower rates, and we think we're going to go back down toward four before the end of the year, but it might take us a little bit more time than we would like for rates to move down you know, based on some of these other factors. So continuing though with the labor market, Jeff, what is this chart telling us? This is suggesting you know, based on some staffing data points here, that maybe the labor market's weaker than Friday's payroll number would suggest. Is that right?

Jeff Roach:

Or at least the trajectory is softening? So going back to, you know, tying in this chart with the last chart, so the last chart I showed, you know, going back to the seventies along with shaded areas for recession, looking at that average gain, you know, we're getting back to normal. This is basically saying, okay, let's not take a snapshot from government data. Let's look at industry data. So this is from the American Staffing Association. This comes out actually every week, Jeff. So this is one of the reasons why I like this one is because it's a higher frequency report, and it comes straight from the industry. So American Staffing Association, I averaged out some of the choppiness since it is weekly. And the key takeaway here is, you know, look at the December 24 figure. That's the very end of the line, relative to where we were pre-pandemic, little seasonality here, which is normal.

Jeff Roach:

But as it relates to the latest read here, we do think that the job market will continue to soften as long as it softens in an orderly fashion, markets aren't going to necessarily respond by saying, oh, weaker job market. Okay, recession fear is rising. That's not necessarily the key takeaway here. Don't go that far reading into the data, but we can at least say this is something where the Fed doesn't have to be worried, necessarily, about labor induced inflation. So part of it is investors have to be patient, right? Don't, as we like to say, you know, don't make decisions based on the short-term volatility markets, look at longer term trends and, you know, make your decisions based on that. So, I think what this tells us, if we wait, have patience January, February, March, some of those job reports are certainly going to be a lot softer than December's report.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Jeff, is this a pretty robust data set? I mean, are they just looking at a small segment of the population, or do you think this is more of a meaningful pool?

Jeff Roach:

Yeah, so this,

Jeff Buchbinder:

I'm not familiar with the survey.

Jeff Roach:

Right. Right. So the American Staffing Association has, you know, their hands, it's kind of like ADP almost, right? So ADP is often used to help us understand where, you know, payroll growth. The staffing association, same idea where you have a pretty national good footprint, and you're capturing kind of overall trends, both in really the smaller size firms as well as the larger size firms. So it's, again, it's another data point. I like it just because it's industry data, and I like it because it helps me when some of the government data doesn't have a, don't have good response rates, <laugh>. So, you know, we don't want to go that down that rabbit hole. But that is a challenge really in the last few years that there's just a lower response rate to some of the government data. Hence, it's great to have this industry data to offset it.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Got to love the timeliness for sure. So thanks for that, Jeff. Let's turn to the Weekly Market Commentary for this week, which you can find on lpl.com. And I think the title of it is, you know, "New Year, Same Bull Market" that Adam came up with. I kind of reworded that. So I've titled the section, "Giving the Bull Market the Benefit of the Doubt", which is another point that Adam makes in the commentary. Some technical damage has been done, but we still think this bull market is intact, and we are, you know, inclined to hold equities at our current tactical weight, which is neutral to bench. So first chart, there's three charts from the publication. First one talks about breadth. So the percentage of stocks above the 200-day moving average has slipped. In fact, it's, that's the orange shaded area here.

Jeff Buchbinder:

In fact, it slipped more than the broad index has slipped. Now, this was priced Thursday, so if you, you know, put a real time S&P 500 price in there, you'd have a little bit more weakness in the price chart. But point still holds that breadth is worse than price. So those two things have to come together over time. So hopefully we get to pick up in breadth and limited further downside in the S&P 500. But if breadth continues to deteriorate, you've got a pretty negative market signal. Adam points out that if you have fewer than 48% of the S&P 500 stocks above the 200-day moving average, that historically corresponds to weaker forward return. Actually, not just weaker, down negative forward return. So we'll watch that. Obviously these patterns don't always hold. But that is key.

Jeff Buchbinder:

In terms of support levels, we are not too far from the 200-day moving average. We would highlight the July highs first, let me give you that exact number. 5,667. So we closed at 5,827 on Friday, and we're down a little bit from that. So 5,667 on the S&P 500 is the July high. So that's the next support. That's about 3% down. If we go down a little more than that, then there's the 200-day, that's about 4% down. That level, 5,573. So those are some key levels to watch. We'd be more concerned technically if we broke the 200-day moving average. Here's yields. This is bordering on a breakout above the 4.75 resistance level. So today, last check, we were like 4.78 on the 10-year. I mean, this is why the jobs report, the inflation outlook, the Fed, all these things are so important because they translate to yields, and yields of course drive stock valuations.

Jeff Buchbinder:

And, you know, that's the discount mechanism that we use to determine what the value, the present value is, for future cash flows, right? That's the fundamental value of a stock. So yields is by far, in a way the most important thing to watch right now. And we're, we wouldn't call it a breakout above 4.75 just yet, but if we hold here for another day or so, it will be, and then that puts five in play. So stock market's not going to like a 5% 10-year yield. Hopefully, we don't get there. If we do get there, we don't think we're going to be there very long, because as Lawrence Gillum, our chief fixed income strategist, likes to say, the cure for higher yields is higher yields. And so the market will price in an economic slowdown and tighter financial conditions if yields go higher. It may take a little bit of time, but that's how we think this is going to play out. So, Jeff, tell me if I'm ridiculous in making that claim, or actually if Lawrence is, first of all, and second of all talk to us about this economic surprise index and maybe why you think it's diverging from yields,

Jeff Roach:

Right. So a couple things here on the fixed income side. So, we're in this structural I guess unknown, the structural unknowns in the sense that, you know, the economy is less interest rate sensitive. When I talk about the economy, not talking about corporations per se, right? Because that's what we were talking about as it relates to our small caps view. But in terms of households, consumers, which is by and far the largest part of the economy is consumer spending. And consumers are just a lot less interest rate sensitive. And so you think about, okay, yields keep on rising and you have this divergence with the economic surprise index. I think that divergence there perhaps is driven by the fact that consumers are less interest rate sensitive. And so you still have, you know, fairly decent economic data and yields continue to test these levels.

Jeff Roach:

You know, in my mind, Jeff, like it goes back to markets trying to work through these new expectations on Fed policy. But, you know, I think if we could, you know, look ahead and fast forward the clock a couple months ahead and anticipate what, you know, March, April might look like, you know, I think we might have some periods of time where inflation is really, really low, approaching 2%, maybe even under 2% on a very, very short time period where the numbers kind of suggest that, you know, March, April could surprise to the downside. And that's when yields would perhaps maybe get past this resistance level and come back to Earth. And the Fed can respond and say, okay, you know, we can continue to ease up on rates, still keep monetary policy tight, right?

Jeff Roach:

Because as long as the Fed target is above the running annual inflation rate, they're not accommodative by any stretch of imagination. So at this point, it's, yeah, market's working through those, what 2025 is going to look like, particularly a Fed policy. So perhaps you could say, eh, 85% of this rise in yields is the unknown and the frustration with how Chair Powell has talked about 2025 and what his thoughts might be on managing rates, the unknown of that. And then outside of that, it's the hotter inflation that we got in November for sure, that's keeping rates elevated,

Jeff Buchbinder:

Making this week's CPI report even more important. I was hoping that we could watch the Fed a little less this year than we did last year, but no luck, <laugh> just not yet. So thanks for that, Jeff. This is the last chart in the Weekly Market Commentary for this week. It's a powerful message. So the point here is that if it's a January barometer, right, if you have a positive January for the S&P 500, you typically have a really strong year, up 17% on average. If you have a negative January, typically have a down year on average, down almost 2%. So a big divergence, again, it doesn't always hold. You got to take these patterns with a little bit of a grain of salt. But this one seems to be fairly robust. So let's hope that we can get back this roughly 2% loss in January month to date and end the month positive.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We certainly have quite a bit of time. We're not even halfway through the month. So this pattern is described in the weekly commentary. And there'll be something to follow over the next couple of weeks. So but again, given the benefit of the doubt to the bull, you've got a rising 200-day moving average. You're still above it. We have rising corporate profits. We have a steady economic growth trajectory. A little too much inflation for now, but we've got a steady economic growth trajectory, that is a cocktail for a bull market to continue. So week ahead, Jeff. CPI, I just mentioned it, right? That is really I think the big potential market mover of the week, but we got other things going on here. A very, very busy economic calendar. I could barely fit it on one page and the start of earnings season. So what should listeners be watching here?

Jeff Roach:

Well, you know, we put a star there on the 14th, which is Tuesday there on the purchasing producer price index, the PPI, producer price index. That's going to be really important to watch, particularly in the months ahead as we discuss tariffs, what are firms having to deal with. But in the very, very near term, perhaps a little bit more important now, given the data that we saw over the last couple weeks, will be the next day's dataset. And that'll be mostly taken up with CPI, which is consumer price index. So, here's the trick, Jeff. So, you know, the market's focus both on the month-on-month change. So CPI month over, the mom as we say, the month over month, if you, if you have a 0.2 instead of a 0.3, I think markets will be positively surprised.

Jeff Roach:

But of course, what we look at, of course, is just year over year because that's your longer run rate of inflation. And we had a slight uptick in the last two months given base effects from comparing October, November of 2024 to October, November of 2023. 2023 when energy prices really plummeted. So hence the a little bit of a base effect going on. We're moving past that. So hence, you might get a 0.2 on the headline CPI month on month, might give us a good annual rate of inflation that will put the markets at ease a little bit. So, that's why Wednesday's releases are going to be so important. In terms of the next day that kind of gives confirmation of how the consumer is feeling going into 2025. This trajectory, as you mentioned, I think you said the cocktail, the cocktail of the necessary ingredients here.

Jeff Roach:

One, of course, is how well those holiday sales went. And we already know that they were, they were pretty decent. So retail sales is covered in December. And that's just going to confirm expectations that going into 2025 things look pretty good for those that have the ability to spend have certainly kept on with that spending pattern. And then claims of course, Thursday, some housing data Friday. But if you have to rank it in my mind the top release that markets will be focusing on will be the CPI numbers coming out Wednesday morning, 8:30 Eastern time is when the CPI comes out.

Jeff Buchbinder:

We will all be watching that one for sure. And we will also all be watching bank earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. Starting out with JP Morgan Chase, which is a biggie, of course. I think you've got Citigroup, Goldman, BlackRock, all Wednesday, Bank of America, Thursday, Wells Fargo in there. So I mean, you're going to have the bulk of the financial sector or at least the bulk of the banking industry within the sector having reported by the end of this week. So we'll learn a lot about earnings season, I think, in just the next few days. Consensus is looking for about 11% earnings growth, Factset data. That suggests that maybe we get 13, possibly 14, because you get the typical upside. The problem this quarter is going to be currency, right? The dollar is strong, stronger, I think than most management teams would've anticipated three months ago when they gave guidance.

Jeff Buchbinder:

And so that probably caps a little bit of your upside, and it probably needs guidance to be a little more cautious than it might otherwise be. But we still have this massive artificial intelligence investment. The Mag Seven earnings aren't going to be meaningfully impacted by currency. You're still looking at, you know, high teens to low twenties types of earnings growth rates. So we still think we'll have double digit earnings growth this quarter or for Q4 when it's all said and done. And generally speaking, we think the market should react just fine to that. So we'll be watching that, much more to common earnings next week and probably over the next several weeks. So I think we'll wrap with that, Jeff, unless you have any final remarks, we'll end it there.

Jeff Roach:

That's great. Sounds good, Jeff.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Very good. So thanks Jeff for joining. Really, really helpful to get your insights on that jobs report that was so market moving. Thank you all for listening. Greatly appreciate your support of LPL Market Signals. We'll be back with you next week, everybody. Take care. Have a great week.

 

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, and Dr. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist, discuss the latest move higher in interest rates, dissect Friday’s jobs report, explain why the bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt after last week’s selloff, and preview this week’s economic calendar.

Stocks and bonds fell last week on the sharp move higher in interest rates, a big chunk of it resulting from the strong jobs report. Energy stocks held up well as oil prices rose, while small caps were hurt by their interest rate sensitivity.

Despite the blowout jobs report last Friday, which the strategists explain wasn’t as much of a blowout as some may believe, the 2024 average monthly gain in private payrolls of 149,000 was cooler than the 2023 average of 192,000. Investors should expect another step downward in 2025. In the meantime, the Fed will keep rates unchanged until the job market cools further.

The strategists also share technical analysis observations to help make the case that this bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt, despite deteriorating market breadth metrics.

Lastly, the strategists close with a preview of the week’s economic calendar, including consumer inflation and retail sales.

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