Checking the Charts After Stock Sell Off

Jeff Buchbinder:

Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, Jeff Buchbinder, host for today with my friend and colleague, Adam Turnquist. Adam, how are you today?

Adam Turnquist:

Not too bad. Glad to be here, especially after a Vikings win over the weekend. Football is back, weather still pretty good here in the Midwest, so feeling pretty good for a Monday.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Awesome. Yeah, my team played early, go Chiefs. And so we're also celebrating a victory. We did not have a victory to celebrate in the markets last week, certainly, but yeah, otherwise all is good. Hope all of you listening are good too. So let's show you the agenda here for this week. We had the worst week for the S&P 500 in over a year last week with the S&P down a little over 4%, so we'll talk about that. Next, takeaways from the jobs report, which was certainly part of why the market sold off last week. And then we will do a chart check with Adam. Of course, he is the chart guru. Maybe it was a little bit too negative to say volatility is back, but that's the topic. That's the title I used here, <laugh> and certainly volatility is back.

Jeff Buchbinder:

But Adam, you have a few other charts here that are a little more upbeat than that message. Next, we'll do a really quick recap of earnings season. That's the topic of the Weekly Market Commentary this week, which you can find on lpl.com. And we'll close with a week ahead preview, it's about inflation, not a big data week. Otherwise, we also get the ECB meeting this week. So, let's get into it. First recap of last week. So this five day look doesn't include it's five-day look, so it's not the week, right, which was a four-day week, but still gives you an idea of the magnitude of the sell off. The small caps, I think the first thing that jumps out at me, Adam, underperformed in that slide. Tech certainly underperformed in that slide as well. So I think maybe those are two areas that we want to highlight. I know you have the tech chart in your presentation here today. What jumped out at you in terms of you know, either style, size or sectors? Looking at market performance last week

Adam Turnquist:

Underneath the surface, selling was very broad when you look at the total decliners versus advancers, very in favor of the declining shares. And then just overall trading volume, that was one thing that was really pronounced in August when we had this relief rally. Really below average volume on the up days and then volume throughout last week, really above average. So pretty heavy selling pressure in the market. And then to your point, small caps, very sensitive, I think to the economic calendar right now, down 5%, lagging by quite a bit on the year as well. You can see that up 4% on the Russell 2000. They've had fits and starts, but I think it's really going to be all about the soft landing or not for the economy and how small caps reform between now and year end. And then of course, mega cap tech leading on the way down, down 6% over the last five days. We'll go over that chart as a quick teaser and some of the damage that was done in the tech space. I think those were pretty much the big standouts along with the VIX jumping nearly 50% last week. So volatility is definitely back, or it was back last week, right on queue though, as we look at September being a historically weak month for the broader market.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I don't think there's anybody out there that hasn't heard that September is historically a weak month. It certainly has delivered on that, unfortunately. But still got another 20 days or so to get through. It's September 9 as we're recording this on Monday afternoon. We're getting a nice rebound today at least as we're recording this. So hopefully we can dig ourselves out of this little bit of a hole that we've got. So I think it's pretty clear from looking at the right side of this table that international markets sold off along with domestic markets, right? Japan continues to struggle. I know you have the yen chart in here today, Adam. You've got Japan without size declines and certainly you have you know, a pretty rough week in Europe where they are struggling economically here lately.

Jeff Buchbinder:

And certainly I think you'll see that reflected in what the ECB does this week. They are likely to cut 25 basis points again. Turning to the bond market, really strongly for bonds. The yields actually on the initial reaction to Friday's jobs report, the 10-year yield dropped below 3.70, I think it hit 3.65 at the intraday low back up closer to 3.70 now. And that un-inverted the yield curve, which we'll talk more in a bit. So good week for bonds. Anything to highlight there, Adam, or you want to touch on fixed income?

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, big week technically as well. We had some breakdowns from some support levels that we were watching on Friday with the 10-year getting below this kind of 3.75 to 3.80 level. That was a key support level below that currently. So we'll see what the downside looks like. It does open the door to a potential retest of the March, or excuse me, the 2023 lows on the 10-year down to 3.25 couple support levels to get through. We'll talk about those, but definitely some big technical moves last week in the bond market.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, and crude oil continues to struggle, clearly sending a message of slower global growth. There's idiosyncratic things going on in the energy markets too, but it's not just energy. If you look broadly at the commodity space, other than precious metals, it's been challenging here lately. So you know, we touched on the jobs report a little bit. That was of course the big economic report last week. So couple of things to highlight there. The first I just want to show this picture of the trend in the monthly job gains. When you look back a few years, it's really clear that job growth has slowed and it actually quite a bit, frankly, we've just about halved our pace from a couple years ago, and now you've got four of the last five months only adding less than 150,000 jobs, after you factor in the downward revisions.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Seems like this report gets revised downward every single month. So, you know, not only have you had downward revisions, but you've missed expectations most months, right? We just had that again last month and the prior month. So it's very clear that the job market is weakening. And in fact, based on this, I would argue 50 basis points is justified. However, we still think the Fed's going to do 25. Another interesting message, this is from our Chief Economist, Jeffrey Roach. Interesting message, when you look at temporary help as a percentage of total employment, these are the easiest people to cut, right? Temp help jobs. And when the market gets a little bit tougher, when demand slows, regardless of what kind of business you're in, you're going to tend to reduce the number of temporary jobs that your company has, right? And so that's what we've seen. If you look back at the last three recessions, we saw this same trend, right? You see less temporary help heading into those last three recessions. I know the pandemic doesn't really count. Very unique set of circumstances, but certainly 2000 and 2008 you saw this same trend as the economy started to weaken. Anything to add there on the Friday jobs numbers?

Adam Turnquist:

I think it's interesting to think about the change in tone from the Federal Reserve in just a few months. Jerome Powell talked about the labor market being too strong, only in the beginning of the summer, to the fact that he mentioned that Jackson Hole, they do not want to see any further cooling in the labor market. It'll be interesting to see how they decipher the latest non-farm payrolls print in that slowdown and what that means for the Fed and some of the commentary looking ahead just beyond the September rate cuts that are largely priced into the market at this point.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, no doubt. I think 110 or so basis points are priced in this year, so we may not get that much, but aggressive cuts are priced in for sure. So thanks for that, Adam. Let's get into the charts, now. This is certainly what we want to be the highlight of today's presentation. I mean, I think the first question people are asking is, you know, how much further could this sell off go? Maybe fewer people are asking that question after the rally here today on Monday. But nonetheless, it looks like at least based on my reading of the chart, we might have a little more downside to go.

Adam Turnquist:

You're a pretty good interpretation there. We do think we're not out of the woods yet on the technicals, we were pretty suspect of this relief rally off those August lows. You can see in the middle panel really since that August low, that's looking at trading volume for the S&P 500, the blue line, that dotted line is the monthly average. And on the way up you can see those bars below the blue dotted line suggesting that it's been below average volume underpinning that rally. A lot of that buying pressure was from the retail space based on positioning data that we look at. And when you look at what's happened since then, we didn't get quite to the July high and momentum is starting to roll over. That's what we're showing in the bottom panel. We call it the percent price oscillator, not to get too technical, but it's just a percentage version of the MACD and when that starts rolling over, suggesting that there's some downside risk ahead, of course that's what price action is telling us.

Adam Turnquist:

Now that we're below the 20-day, below the 50-day moving average, we did fill a price gap around 5,450 trading just below those levels Monday afternoon here. But it does open the door for a potential retest of that August 5th low, or even the rising 200-day moving average at 5,152. We break those levels, those open the door potentially for the April lows around 4,950. So some downside levels to watch. It'll be interesting to see what happens if we get a retest of the 200-day moving average, and if that's a spot where buy the dip comes in more meaningfully and sustainably than the last time back in August.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, our asset allocation committee has been talking a lot about where we would potentially want to buy on weakness. And, I think you, you hit on those levels, Adam, that might be really interesting. We'll see when we get there and what the world looks like when and if we get there. But 4,950 and certainly that 200-day 5,150 are two levels we've been talking about quite a bit. Still recommending neutral, which is, you know, fully invested in equities relative to target, but with a bias to buy on the dip if we get a meaningful amount of weakness from here.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, and I think it's important to note just the shorter-term view that we're highlighting here versus the longer term because if you step back and just look at the trend here off those October 2022 lows, clearly still in an uptrend, we're still above the rising 200-day moving average. And when you look at breadth metrics, so how many stocks are above their 200-day moving average, for example, that was really unfazed by the latest volatility. So a lot of stocks above their longer term uptrends a good sign for more of a pullback than a top in the market right now. At least how we're seeing things at this juncture,

Jeff Buchbinder:

Like hearing that. So, I mentioned upfront that volatility is back, is the title we use for this section, and yes, it is <laugh> certainly, based on what happened last week, that's clear to everybody, but I was surprised in looking at this VIX. It's actually not super high.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, it definitely was, and we backed off those levels. The bright blue line is the current VIX reading right now. Looks like my EKG report probably from this morning as I battled my computer. We had some tech issues earlier, but we're right around, call it just above the longer-term average of the VIX, we are above a 200-day moving average on the VIX. I always consider that more of a risk on environment versus risk off. So we are in more of that risk off environment above the 200-day moving average. But when you look at the average progression of the VIX, you can see the highs that generally occur during the first quarter, especially during an election year, they're more pronounced. And then during the fourth quarter, especially during an election year, there you can see the peak in the orange that this goes back to 1992 for all election years. It's typically where you see the VIX spike. We're on our way, at least tracking roughly the seasonal progression of the VIX year. Typically, you know, on an average year you're peaking right around late September, early October. So maybe that lines up with the buy the dip process if we do get back down to that 200-day moving average, but expect higher volatility, I think is the key theme when you look at this chart as we go into the rest of this month and into the election year or into the election day.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, certainly you know, VIX around 20 feels a lot better than the 65, which is a little bit of an artificial reading, but still the massive spike in the VIX that we saw in early August that only got us an eight little over 8% pullback. This one is already north of five, so it's really not I mean the VIX level's different, but the end result may not be all that different in terms of how far we drop, which is interesting. So you know, we mentioned tech is under performer last week. It was really the primary source of the drawdown. NVIDIA was down 14% last week. The whole semi space I think was down 12. So it's really been the epicenter. Does this chart Adam, tell us that we might have more risk of breaking down here?

Adam Turnquist:

I think so. We've had a lower high on the tech sector, that's always concerning, breaking below the 20- and the 50-day moving average. And we're setting up for what looks like a retest of the August lows, right around the 200-day moving average. So those are going to be key levels to watch. If we break those levels, keep an eye on the April lows, because that would be another lower low implying that we could be in a period of a downtrend for the tech sector. Not making that call now. A lot of times you'll see these big rallies, a consolidation phase, and then a resumption of the uptrend. So you really need to wait for the evidence to appear and confirm any type of trend change. But it's definitely on our radar. And one of the other things that's been notable on this latest volatility is the leadership change in the tech sector.

Adam Turnquist:

And that's what we're highlighting in the middle panel. We look at the sector versus the S&P 500, just to determine the trend in relative strength and then how the actual trend strength and what we've witnessed really since the summer is a breakdown in relative strength for the tech sector. You can see here dipping below the 200-day moving average for the first time since late 2023 or excuse me, late 2022. So lower lows, lower highs, it does suggest there is risk. Tech could be in a period of underperformance versus the market, then you have to ask yourself who's going to lead the market if tech's not leading. It's a big, you know, 30% weight in the S&P 500. Some of those defensive sectors have started to fill that gap. Not quite discernible trend changes yet, but another thing we're watching for is that defensive shift in leadership. So I think we'll get likely an answer to that over the next call it coming weeks for the broader market. And then lastly is just overall breadth in the tech sector, breaking down, still solid at 55% of stocks above their 200-day moving average, but heading in the wrong direction over the last few weeks. That was generally in the 70 to 80% range at times. So fewer and fewer stocks now above their 200-day moving averages as we go into some of these key support levels.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, clearly the I mean it's always easy in hindsight, but clearly the enthusiasm for tech got a little ahead of itself. You could see that in valuations, right? I mean, the sector got to 50, 55% premium to the S&P on forward price to earnings basis. Average or historically has been sort of 35, maybe 40 at most. And you just had to take some of that froth out and the earnings was just an excuse, right? The AI earnings, I'm not just talking NVIDIA, but broadly, were pretty good and tech, the statistics for tech earnings were about as good as any sector. But if you have high valuations and a little too much froth, it's very easy to miss those high expectations. So, that's how I would characterize the fundamentals. Fundamentals are good. Expectations were too high. Let's keep moving. And next up is Treasury yields, which were really interesting, not just because they dropped and drove gains for bonds, but because the yield curve un-inverted, which historically has proceeded recessions in a fairly short time horizon. This time could be different, we'll have to see. Dangerous words in investing. <Laugh>, what do you think about the bond market here, Adam.

Adam Turnquist:

You said it, this time could be different. I think the bond market was arguably more interesting, the equity market last week with some of the technical developments here. Looking at the 10-year on the top panel, breaking down below those December lows, that 3.75, 3.80 level, that was a key level we were watching. We had some bounces off that level, even though relief rallies were pretty muted. And now we're back to the August 5 low around 3.66. So that's going to be a key level to watch. If we break that level, then it does really suggest we could go back and retest those 2023 lows around 3.25. The trend here is lower, momentum is bearish, so you do have to consider that we could break that support level. And then you have to ask yourself, what does that mean for the broader market? Or what's the message from the fixed income market when we're talking about a potential 10-year at 3.25?

Adam Turnquist:

I don't think that's what equity markets probably want, because that would be, I think signaling toward a more of an economic slowdown or hard landing scenario. You're seeing on the bottom panel here, the tens verse twos curve spread, finally getting back above break even, dis-inverting for the first time in over 500 trading days, the longest on record. And now we're right around five basis points in the green here for twos or tens out yielding twos at this point. So that does have some negative connotations. We actually backtested this, if you go to the next slide, I think it's on there and what that means for equity markets and Jeff, you know, the negative headlines that come out once the curve dis-inverts, it is arguably a recession indicator, but the timing of that indicator not always the best.

Adam Turnquist:

And we looked at it after the curve dis-inverts, what does it mean for equity markets 12 months later after being inverted for a prolonged period? And this breaks down all of the different returns over that 12 months. And you can see three out of the four times, three out of the four last times it dis-inverted was higher. But there's a lot of volatility in those numbers. You can see how much volatility, you know, down over 20% back in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe, up 24%. So I think it just suggests, yes, we can be higher 12 months, but it's going to be a bumpier path potentially, as we work our way back to more of a normal shaped yield curve.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I think this also highlights that when you have a transition in monetary policy, you tend to get bond market volatility, right? You can look at the MOVE Index, which is kind of like the VIX for Treasury yields, and you'll see that. So clearly the market was not quite sure after these un-inversions, if that's or dis-inversions weren't sure if we were going to get a hard landing or soft landing, got volatility of course. And then eventually you get clarity and you either rally, which we did in three or four of these cases, or you really don't, which we got in 2000 through 2002. We of course know that that was a recession and really a crisis beyond the recession. So really interesting analysis here, Adam. And I think also it's worth noting that post-COVID, everything's been weird. So this time is different, has worked, right? It has been different. This may be another case where we think we're more likely to maybe have a bumpy path to a soft landing, not necessarily a hard landing in an immediate recession, which is, you know, what you've really gotten a few times in recent history.

Jeff Buchbinder:

All right, next to the yen. And this you know, I mentioned that the Nikkei had been down sharply last week. It has really been at the epicenter of the volatility, especially in early August. So Adam, looks like we're getting close to maybe that same level that contributed to that volatility last time.

Adam Turnquist:

Uncomfortably close as we labeled it here, with the dollar yen. Yen strengthening a bit last week, of course, we had the weaker employment data in the U.S. that created higher expectations for rate cuts. At the same time, Bank of Japan officials released some more hawkish commentary. So the difference between those messages created some yen strength. And you can see now trading around 143, there's some support kind of in this, we'll call it 140–141 range for the dollar yen. We've already broken the uptrend, we're already below the 200-day moving average. We're getting close to what we call a bearish crossover or even a death cross. I think that's a little bit extreme, but <laugh> with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day moving average, you can see on the top right. So watching for that signal, and we do break this kind of 140, 141 level that would suggest we're in for a period of a downtrend led by of course, the yen strengthening against the dollar. On the middle panel,

Adam Turnquist:

we look at overall momentum. We were extremely oversold on the currency pair during that August period of the unwinding of the yen carry trade. We've bounced back a little bit, but it's interesting to note where that RSI indicator started to roll over, right at the midline. And that's classic relief rally type price action in momentum. So a bit of a concern there. And then the other big question is how much of the unwinding of the carry trade is left? And we use the speculator data from the CFTC just as a proxy. It's a small sample size of who trades in yen, especially from a speculator position. And you can see on the bottom panel here, how short speculators were, where this is the, if you're negative, you're short the yen here, they covered a lot of those short positions during that unwinding, of course by buying the yen.

Adam Turnquist:

But we're starting to see short positions pick up a little bit. I think if you just use this data as a proxy some of that carry trade unwind risk is probably is done, I would say maybe not done, but at least it's been reduced during this latest draw down on the dollar/yen. But definitely as we get closer to these support levels does raise the risk of currency and stability and what we witnessed back in August. Don't think it's going to be as pronounced. But directionally I think we could be in for a period of further volatility here as we assess what's happening in the dollar/yen and the implications for broader currency markets.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, first just for folks who don't know, the CFTC is the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, right? So it's collect futures data, and that's where we're getting this position data from, which is really interesting. I also think the way I think about this is it doesn't really matter so much that this is yen. What matters is people are borrowing too much and they get off sides and they get a trade wrong, right? It could be yen could be something else. It wasn't the yen carry trade in 2008 that caused that problem, right? That's really, I have used the analogy of kindling, right? So the spark maybe was not the yen, but the yen was sort of the kindling maybe, you know, that that led to the fire on August 5. And so sure, it's a risk, but it's really more of a symptom than a cause, right?

Jeff Buchbinder:

The cause is really the borrowing and just getting a trade wrong. So I think that's important context as well on this. So we'll keep watching the yen, you know, of course we don't want it to get too volatile because it could exacerbate selling pressure, but you're going to need more than just the yen to drive a correction, right? It could be a combination of things, probably will. So thanks for that Adam, really good walk through some important charts and you know, you throw all that together and it looks like maybe we've got a little bit more downside. Good to see the rally today and fundamentals have generally been good, but you know, the chart's telling us that maybe this pullback isn't over. So, let's turn to earnings again, the topic of the Weekly Market Commentary this week, which you can find on lpl.com.

Jeff Buchbinder:

You know, I struggle with the headline, you know, how to capture the earnings season in one short phrase. So good, not great, probably sums it up fairly well. But I also think it's worth noting that really the only trouble with earnings was the reaction and the numbers were pretty good. In fact, it's hard to find numbers that weren't good. The only number that I could maybe point to that wasn't so good was the upside. We got about three and a half points of upside. The only reason that's not good is because we've been doing seven, 8% the last few quarters on average. So, that's really about it. Otherwise, it was good. So here's the path of earnings growth by quarter. And you see on the actuals, the last actual Q2, it's pretty much over 11.8%. If you add back the write down from Warner Brothers Discovery is actually over 13.

Jeff Buchbinder:

That's really strong earnings growth and it's certainly better than what we've been doing the last few quarters. But perhaps more impressive is that the outlook held up, right? The guidance was pretty good, actually, by the way, the guidance in tech was good, particularly good. Which is interesting in light of the sell off last week, it's been a sell the news situation. So I think we should be encouraged by the resilience of estimates. Maybe these numbers are a little too high, but the fact that they've held up so well suggests they're more likely to be reasonable estimates of where we actually end up. So just focusing on the data, not necessarily the narratives. And I think that gets you to a pretty comfortable place that suggests maybe this pullback has a few more points to go, but there's actually going to be fundamental support as we get closer to next earnings season, which is only about a month away.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So this is a really important theme. This chart just shows you the earnings growth rates between the Mag Seven and the broad S&P, right? And as we know, the Mag Seven's been growing earnings a lot faster than the broad market. That's certainly evident in these numbers, the 57% versus 10 for 2024. But look what happens in 2025, that gap gets a lot narrower. And so I think this is contributing to the breadth there. I'm kind of going into your world, Adam. Better breadth on the S&P 500 is a function of the market seeing that this earnings growth gap is going to narrow, right? We don't know exactly how much these are estimates. 2025 is a ways off, but it's probably going to narrow. And by the way, this is also good for value stocks. Value stocks are starting to look better on the charts as Adam, you've told me. And if you get more breadth and you move away from the Mag Seven, which we've done a little bit lately, of course, that that bodes well for value. So value has got our attention, it's outperformed for the last maybe six, seven weeks, outperformed last week. We'll see where it goes from here, but certainly you know, our bias is starting to turn a little bit toward value. Your thoughts on that, Adam?

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, I think when you look at just the big tech trade and the froth that was in it, I think this quarter will be likely characterized as the quarter that maybe reset some of those expectations. As you mentioned, the numbers were good. I think it was just price versus fundamentals that needed to be a little bit of a catching up to do with both of those in an equilibrium point. I guess we'll call it a reality check for some of those names. And we're seeing that play out. And I think as we look ahead in this broadening theme, especially outside of just the breadth metrics that we look at technically and the actual earnings, I think that's a pretty supportive case for the continuation of this bull market. And I think a lot of investors are really looking at looking for that broadening theme beyond the technicals. There's a lot of skepticism over how many stocks are contributing to X percent of the S&P 500. We've heard about that all year. And I think as we start to see this broaden out a little bit, I think that will give investors more confidence to come in maybe this fall, start buying that dip.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, and that doesn't mean that the Mag Seven have to keep going down, right? This 14% earnings growth next year would be pretty good for the S&P and 19% for the Mag Seven is better <laugh>, right? So this is not a bearish call on the Mag Seven. This just suggests that the rest of the market is getting enough earnings growth to actually start to perform better. And, it is, we're starting to see that, but the AI investment cycle's got several more quarters to go before it really slows down in any meaningful way, in our view. So let's close out with the week ahead and we've got inflation data this week, Adam, using this new LPL brand, this teal color, maybe <laugh> in my PowerPoint template. It sort of has an oceany feel. So maybe we're trying to just extend summer and think about the ocean some more and the beach. I think that here's a hot take, right? I don't think the CPI data really matters all that much. I think the market has shifted, you, tell me if you disagree. I think the market has shifted to, you know, bad news is bad news, which is obviously the inverse of good news, good news, and the jobs data and the economic growth picture matter more now than the inflation picture. What do you think?

Adam Turnquist:

I think you're right. I think CPI and inflation is almost back burner. I wouldn't call it old news, but front page investors are looking for anything to do with the labor market. I would go as far as saying the jobless claims data on Thursday have more potential to move the market than maybe CPI because there's so much focus on the labor market right now and any types of hybrid frequency data than the monthly data we get from the BLS is going to be an important one from the market's perspective. I think any surprises in the inflation data could certainly bring back fear over inflation, but we haven't really seen that. I think LPL Research and the Fed are both comfortable in the trajectory of inflation getting back close to target. So we've kind of moved on, we meaning the market and really focused more on the employment and the growth story I think for the broader economy.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I think it's a good point. I probably should have circled jobless claims, but they come every week. The University of Michigan data might be interesting too. Consumer sentiment, obviously tied to growth. We know how important the consumer is to the U.S. economy. So maybe heightened attention on consumer confidence and the health of the consumer. Beyond that, it's a pretty slow week. I mean, I don't think anybody is really looking for a surprise out of the ECB, right? So we'll probably get a cut there. They've already cut. It's not really that climactic, I would say. Anything else this week, Adam, on the economic data or central bank calendar that you think is sort of worth paying attention to? Or is that it?

Adam Turnquist:

The Apple event today? I think that's going to be a potential big one. Good point. At least for me, I'll be watching it because I'm due for an upgrade and I talked to my wife and it looks like I'm going to get the upgrade for our contract, so I'm excited for that, for selfish reasons, market reasons.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Vikings win and a new iPhone. You are living large.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah. We'll see, we'll see when I end up getting it. And I think it'll be interesting too to see what they roll out, what AI is embedded into that. That's probably what the market's looking for as well. And potentially a market moving event, we'll see with just how big Apple is for the S&P 500.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, it's a big event, the presidential debate tomorrow, but obviously it's unlikely to be a big market moving event. The election dynamic though will affect certain sectors and industries as we get closer to November 5 and the market tries to price in, you know, who's going to be a potential winner and who's going to be a potential loser, but it's close. The Senate and the house races will be close. Don't put too much weight on the election here in your portfolios. That's the bottom line. In fact, maybe that'll be the topic of one of our next few podcasts here, because that is, I think, a really important message for people, that politics don't matter to markets as much as you think. So I think that's a good note to close on. So Adam, thanks for walking through your favorite charts here this week and comments on all else. You are certainly much more than a technician. Thanks everybody for joining, for listening to another edition of LPL Market Signals. We will be back with you next week. Take care everybody.