Bear Market Rally? Probably Not

Jeff Buchbinder (00:00):

Hello everyone and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder here with my friend and colleague, Adam Turnquist. Hopefully all of you had a wonderful long holiday weekend. It was sure nice weather up here in Boston. Adam, Looks like you got a little sun.

Adam Turnquist (00:14):

<Laugh>. I was just, we had good weather here in the Midwest. Unfortunately, I forgot the sunscreen, as you can tell. So fighting a little sunburn this morning, but I think it'll be all right. And it was worth it to be outside in 70 plus degree weather, finally.

Jeff Buchbinder (00:27):

Yeah, absolutely. Especially given it's Memorial Day weekend. It's the start of summer and you know, it seems like you should be outside enjoying the nice weather. We'll, let you, we'll let the sunscreen thing slide because it's been a while since you've needed that in Wisconsin. <Laugh>, certainly <laugh>. So, thanks everybody for joining. Here's our agenda today, of course, we've got a big rally today. It's Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Happy birthday to my dad. Happy birthday, dad. So we're going to start with a market recap, yield jitters hit stocks. Next chart check, Adam, which you've titled, "Recovery Stalls". Next, we'll recap earnings season, which is the topic of this week's Weekly Market Commentary and close of the preview of the week. And I think NVIDIA's earnings release is really the highlight of the week, but we do get some pretty important economic data on consumer spending and inflation. So certainly we'll be watching that. So let's get into our recap here. It was really all about yields, Adam, stocks down about two and a half percent. Small caps even worse, down about three point half percent. Thoughts on how the market reacted to the move higher in yields, which really wasn't that big

Adam Turnquist (01:52):

When you look at just the market action coming into last week, I think there was only four down days over the four weeks before that. So really looking for an excuse to sell. I think last week, provided a few of them. And of course, interest rates were a big part of that. If the 10-year and 30-year yield extremely volatile throughout the week. We also had President Trump threaten tariffs on Friday with Apple and the EU, and a host of other reasons. We were technically overbought over that short period coming off the April lows. Relatively orderly though on the way down last week actually, the VIX moved higher, snapped a six week losing streak, but ended at 22. There's no real panic, looked like kind of your classic profit taking pressure. And the S&P landed right on support on Friday at the 200-day moving average. So buyers did come in, defend that key support level.

Jeff Buchbinder (02:46):

Yeah, and then in terms of sector mix, staples a leader certainly you would expect defensive sectors to hold up better on a down week. We had the real defensive names within staples hold up best. So it was not the retailers like, you know, the Targets and the Walmarts. It was more the stuff we really need rather than necessarily want. And even a little bit of like tobacco and, you know, household personal products, things like that. So very, very defensive in there. But a little bit of a surprise consumer, or I'm sorry, communication services also held up very well on gains in Alphabet and in Netflix. Adam, you mentioned Apple, that was a big loser and a drag on tech given they were targeted with a tariff threat directly on them. Of course, Trump clarified later that it was broad smartphones where the tariff threat was being applied.

Jeff Buchbinder (03:46):

Not necessarily just Apple, which frankly I don't think is legal. So let's turn to the bond market. Oh, by the way, the international markets hold up, held up better than the domestic markets. I know, Adam, you'll talk more about that when you get to your charts. Here's the bond market. Why I said it didn't get hit that hard is because the 10-year yield was only up about three and a half basis points. We of course follow that very closely, but the 30-year was up about 10 basis points. So that's where you saw some of these losses in the bond market, Adam,

Adam Turnquist (04:21):

Right, and I think Lawrence Gillum, our chief fixed income strategist called it a boycott, excuse me, of long duration. And it wasn't just the U.S. as well, you had bank of or Japanese government bonds are 30-year moving to I think, record highs, if not multi-decade highs. Same thing in U.K. gilts, German bunds, really across the globe. We had yields moving higher, whether that was led by the U.S. Treasuries or not, remains to be determined, I guess, but certainly weighed on sentiment in the equity market. When we look at the 10-year, for example, that four and a half, 4.50 level seems to be kind of the breaking point for risk appetite went above 4.50. The switch gets flipped back to equity selling. That's kind of what we saw throughout last week, but we did settle down a little bit by the close on Friday as there's more of a flight to safety, Treasuries may be acting as they should last week, at least on Friday. And now we're below that 4.50 level here on Tuesday with the equity market welcoming the lower yields. Part of that on the long end was due to some news out of Japan. They're going to limit or potentially limit some of the supply on the long end. So that's helping at least translate into maybe some new buyers coming back into the long bond or longer duration Treasuries.

Jeff Buchbinder (05:39):

Yeah, and certainly deficit spending is weighing on the bond market. We would actually point out that if you add tariff revenue, potential anyway, to the tax bill, it's actually pretty much deficit neutral as a percent of GDP. Okay, so this is really important. A lot of folks are talking about how it's going to add 3 trillion to the deficit and all that. You want to look at the deficit relative to GDP, relative to the size of the economy. And you do want to factor in tariff revenue. So these are of course estimates not locked in yet, but perhaps the bond markets may be getting a little bit too worried about that. Also worth noting, the gold market was really strong certainly last week doing its thing as a defensive, especially in a market environment in which the you know, stock market sells off 2.5% and you have worries about U.S. exceptionalism, the whole sell America trade and all of that, which we think is overdone.

Jeff Buchbinder (06:43):

But still, if you're looking for a hedge, we think gold related investments make some sense. So Adam, let's get into your charts now. Recovery stalls, bulls take a bit of a breather. Of course, that headline doesn't apply to this morning's trade <laugh>, right? As we record this stock market's up over 1% after, you know, Trump pulled back on his EU tariff threat. So, and the bond market is rallying. So maybe add some color to the trading today. But at least through last week, bulls did take a breather.

Adam Turnquist (07:20):

A much needed one, I think as well. When you look at this rally, we've had off those April lows around 4,800, we'll call it, almost a one-way street in terms of price action, very few down days, as I mentioned throughout that period. We're now back above the 200-day moving average. We did sell off about, again, two and a half to 2.6% last week here on the S&P. Very broad-based selling, but importantly, bulls held that level right at the 200-day moving average. We briefly tested it on Friday, that's where buyers came back in. We're seeing that follow through today in Tuesday's price action here with a pretty good bounce in the equity market. So really, when you think about this rally continuing, you only have, call it two or three levels of resistance. You have your May highs, not far overhead, and then your December highs.

Adam Turnquist (08:07):

And then of course your February highs at 6,144. But today we're 5-6% away from record high territory. I don't think we're going to go there in this linear fashion as we have coming off the April lows, likely some room to digest some of these gains is due, but on a short term basis, you can see as well, we're just overbought on the bottom panel. We're showing the S&P 500's price versus its 50-day moving average. Now, I like to use this rubber band analogy as price tends to only stretch so far above that moving average before you get a at least a pause or a potential snapback. And that's really what we're seeing over the last week. We had almost a 7% premium. That's where that red line comes into play over the 50-day. And that's as far as that rubber band tends to stretch throughout history.

Adam Turnquist (08:56):

And that's where you either, again, start to slow down in terms of overall momentum. But the other big question that we're getting as technicians, is this a bear market rally or is this sustainable? And I think when you look at the overwhelming evidence in the breadth, the leadership, all the different things that we look at, technically, I don't think you can make the case this is a bear market rally. Of course, yes, there's going to be some dips along the way, but this is not a sell the rips type move. This is more of a buy the dips type of market. I think at least that's what we've moved into over the last month.

Jeff Buchbinder (09:29):

Yeah. And certainly positioning data and what we're seeing out of big institution suggests maybe we can go a little higher in the short term. This study also suggests <laugh> we can go higher in the short term or maybe even the intermediate term. So what's the message here, Adam?

Adam Turnquist (09:46):

So we looked at a lot of studies in terms of the rate of change on the way down and what are the parallels to the drawdown from February to April. And now on the other side, we're looking at when have we had, we'll call it kind of these V-shaped recoveries or these big rallies in a short period of time. To filter that out we used a 15% rally in 28 trading days. That's exactly what the S&P 500 did actually a little bit better at 19%. When has the market done that over the last 75 years? And you can see there's only been you know, 10, a little over 10 periods where you've had a rally of this magnitude. And the study shows, as you can see on the far or bottom right, 12 months later, average gain for the S&P are up 26%, median 22%, importantly higher a hundred percent of the time.

Adam Turnquist (10:35):

So another study that shows momentum begets momentum. Of course, there's some context that's required in some of this data. When you look back at some of these periods, a lot of them were associated with either fiscal support and monetary policy support, as was the case coming off, the pandemic lows, a Fed pivot, that was the case in 2018, 2019, or even long-term capital management blow up in 98, late 1998. So there's some context here, but I think when you think about this idea of a pivot, we've had that a little bit out of Washington in terms of their trade policies. We had the April 2 reciprocal tariff day the White House and President Trump, we'll call it pivoting away from some of the harder stance on tariffs to more of a softer stance in negotiating phase at this point.

Jeff Buchbinder (11:22):

Yeah, that 2020 pandemic reversal is something we may never see again, <laugh>, at least in our lifetimes. You know, erasing a 34% drawdown in a very short amount of time as you see here on the top row here 47% in 12 months. I have another study to reference. This is from our friends at Bespoke. They do really great work. In the 15 periods where the S&P 500 declined 15% from a record high and then rallied back to within 3% of its former high, it reached a new high within the next two months, 13 out of those 15 times. So that suggests that, you know, this run to 5,900 is going to go to 6,100 plus within the next couple of months if that, you know, high batting average study holds. So we've got a lot of momentum and momentum begets momentum. This, you know, and again, in the very near term probably makes sense to be bullish. So let's turn to internals here, Adam. This is very colorful little Christmas theme here. What's the message from this chart?

Adam Turnquist (12:31):

There's more green than red. So we'll start there. At a very high level, green means more stocks in potential uptrends developing uptrends or confirmed uptrends. I'm not going to get into the how the model is built and the nuts and bolts here, but we have a proprietary model system that we look at, and we're just trying to understand what's going on underneath the surface of the market instead of at the index level. And it's been really interesting to look at this chart over the last few weeks because you had a lot of stocks in downtrends, no surprise. But even coming off a couple weeks off those April lows, we did not get the trend model flipping to more green than red until really the last, call it the last week or so. And you've had a notable pickup in not just the S&P 500.

Adam Turnquist (13:16):

You can see if you add those up, you're over 50% of the index now in some form of an uptrend. What's really stood out, and one thing that we are looking for to assess how sustainable is this move was the tech sector. You had a couple weeks ago, 75% of the tech sector in a confirmed downtrend. That's the worst measure that we use. Now, fast forward to today, you can see on the tech sector quite a few stocks, you know, well over half the sector in some form of an uptrend. I think that speaks to this being a sustainable move. When you think about 30% weighting that the tech sector holds in the S&P 500, that was one of the missing pieces that we were looking for. Of course, we can check that box now in terms of that tech leadership we'll call it for now. We'll see how that shakes out with NVIDIA earnings on deck here coming up.

Jeff Buchbinder (14:04):

Yeah, certainly the cyclical sectors look better on this look. And you've got energy of course just follows oil prices. It's cyclical, but it just follows oil prices. Oil prices have been down. And so you would expect weak breadth, that is good for consumer spending to have oil prices down. So that's a positive through a negative. So if you factor that in I would argue this chart looks even a little bit better than it might on the surface. All right, let's go to small caps now. So this has been tricky and a lot of people have been talking about how cheap small caps are and have been potentially overweighting them or adding on recent weakness. But it's been a little disappointing, I would say. You agree, Adam?

Adam Turnquist (14:51):

<Laugh>? Yeah, as they say, cheap and cheap for a reason, because you can look over the last couple years and small caps have gone absolutely nowhere. We just call this one big consolidation phase. They've had a nice, I think 15% rally off the lows, but we measure things here in technical progress, and there hasn't really been much. You can see the S&P 600, that's the small cap index, stuck below some key resistance, including its declining 200-day moving average. When you look at the internals of the small caps, the middle panel shows how many are above their 200-day moving average. That's at 28%. Compare that to the S&P 500, about 50%. So weaker breadth. And then one of the most important charts, I think is just this relative trend chart on the bottom. We're comparing small caps to the S&P 500. And you can see this declining price channel that's been in place really for the last couple of years. That's indicative of large cap leadership. That trend seems to be intact. So I think technically here that would be the call, lean more toward, toward large over small.

Jeff Buchbinder (15:54):

Yeah, small caps are interest rate sensitive, and the large caps just have so much earnings power right now. It's of course all tech that it's really hard for small caps to keep up. Then you add the fact that the tariffs maybe are a little bit easier for larger companies to manage. And those are some pretty stiff, stiff headwinds. Speaking of headwinds, the market's big headwind, as we mentioned, was the long bond yield last week. So up about 10 basis points over the last five days. But coming back down a little bit today on some of those Japan headlines that you mentioned, Adam, what's the chart tell us about where the long bond's going?

Adam Turnquist (16:31):

Right now, I think there's still some upside risk. You're above a rising 200-day moving average here on the long bond, but importantly, at least on the near term basis, we're back below 5%, this morning, at least, market obviously welcoming that news. And this is another one in terms of a headwind for just going back to small caps here, when you think about their cost of capital, much more sensitive to higher rates, especially longer duration than the larger caps by quite a few percentage points when you add it all up across the index level. But technically here, I think consolidation sideways trend is probably a welcome move, whether that's on the 10-year or the 30-year. If you start getting too low, that's the market pricing in either lower growth or recession risk. And so I do think sideways probably the best trend here for the equity market.

Jeff Buchbinder (17:23):

Yeah. And the long bond yield is tied to global yields and you know, we're seeing the same thing over there. So you're talking about Japan, Australia, and Germany here.

Adam Turnquist (17:35):

Yeah. And Japan's really the standout, I would say, just given 3% might not sound like a lot for a global perspective, but that is I think again, a record high for JGB, Japanese government bond yields on the long end, and they're raising rates as well. So the Bank of Japan governor came out today talked about a potential rate hike given their economic conditions, they're seeing inflation be more sustainable. So that puts them in a position to be a little bit more hawkish. That's reflective on their long bond. It did come in quite a bit, double digit base points overnight, just given the news that they're going to decrease some of that supply similar to the U.S., they do not want their long end yields moving too high, too fast. So they put the brakes on it, we'll call it over the last couple days here.

Jeff Buchbinder (18:24):

Yeah, we're going to have to keep watching these yields because, you know, even though the deficit concerns might be a little overdone in the U.S. you still have a Fed that's on hold, you still have the risk of tariff driven inflation and you know, you're going to have a lot of issuance, right? Deficit concerns are no deficit concerns. A lot of Treasury supply that we have to digest. Actually, we have several Treasury auctions this week, which are, I think go out as far as seven years and some pretty big numbers. So we'll have to watch that. The Treasury market is tied to the dollar. It's not all that matters, but certainly if folks want more Treasuries that's going to be dollar supportive. But you know, dollar's not getting much support lately.

Adam Turnquist (19:09):

No, not at all. It's clinging to life here in this range. You can see right around 99 or a hundred, there's some additional support below that level. If you start taking out the April lows, I think technically 97, 92 on the dollar index here, you no longer can make the case the dollar's in a consolidation phase. You have to acknowledge the fact that this downtrend that's been developing all year will likely continue. And I think, what's the message there? If the dollar's breaking down, is it, you know, a proxy for the U.S. economy? I think it's pointing to slower relative growth potentially to Europe, which is a big weighting here within the dollar index, but still holding onto that support level. I'd say the long bond or the 10-year, our charts that keep me up at night, the dollars pretty close as well, just given where things are at it with the dollar.

Adam Turnquist (20:00):

And this potential breakdown. Positioning remains very bearish in the dollar, has not capitulated. There's been no real profit taking on dollar shorts as there has on prior retests to the lower end of this channel. And then when you look at momentum in the dollar, you've had what we call just a relief rally. So not a sustainable move, that fizzled out right around the 50-day moving average momentum indicators, such as RSI or the relative strength index have rolled over right around 50. That's the midline. So that remains bearish. So I do think there's some downside risk in the dollar, but of course we're watching to see if that support level off those April lows can hold.

Jeff Buchbinder (20:38):

Yeah, very important chart when you consider the impact on international investments. So that's where we're going next. We have the MSCI all country world here. We say it all the time, but when the dollar is weak, the odds are much, much higher that your international stocks are going to add value relative to domestic stocks. And Adam, that's what we've been seeing,

Adam Turnquist (21:01):

Right. It's been an impressive rally here. This is the all country world index that it takes out the U.S. component. So it's true global and rallying to record highs, you can see on the top right, taking out some key resistance off the 2024 highs. But when you zoom out, as we did here with this multi-year chart, this is important to understand the importance of this breakout. This is record high territory. So I would say it's really just breaking out. On a short term basis, of course, it looks a little bit overbought, but when you zoom out again here, these are where rallies tend to be more meaningful when you're taking out those multi-year high type resistance levels, they tend to have durability. So watch for this to potentially continue. Importantly, as asset allocators, we're always looking at things on a relative basis as well.

Adam Turnquist (21:51):

That middle panel shows just how much global stocks have underperformed the U.S. and that's the all country world index versus the S&P. You can see it's been in a downtrend for a number of years. That's basically because the S&P has been outperforming on that ratio chart. Things have started to change, though. You can see we've been making higher highs and higher lows on the ratio chart, getting through some resistance levels, suggesting maybe this time is different and international can start outperforming on more of a longer term basis. Not quite there yet, but it's certainly something to watch for investors, especially when you look at the breadth within the MSCI all country world index. You look at momentum here, all very bullish, especially relative to U.S. markets right now.

Jeff Buchbinder (22:37):

Yeah. And we responded to this by upgrading emerging market equities to neutral and downgrading U.S. equities to neutral. So now we're neutral across the board, developed international, EM and U.S. So certainly technicals aren't our entire process, but they're a good chunk of it. And we certainly responded to the improvement in international equities. We have also the valuation support, right? So this was very supportive for EM and for non-U.S. broadly. Just how cheap is international do you think, Adam? Putting on your fundamental cap.

Adam Turnquist (23:14):

Putting on the fundamental cap is sometimes scary and maybe not a good look for a technician <laugh>, but we like to look at valuations and marry the tech.

Jeff Buchbinder (23:22):

We'll do it together, Adam, I'll hold your hand.

Adam Turnquist (23:25):

Yeah, <laugh> sounds good. But to marry the stories, I think is where, you know, you can really generate alpha and when you have a good technical and fundamental story, and look, even though we've had breakouts to record highs on the all country world index ex U.S., it's still relatively cheap. You can see on this forward P/E blended, forward P/E ratio or chart, we're comparing the spread, how it trades to the S&P, it's still cheap. That blue line is the average discount that it trades at to the U.S. You can see almost five turns cheap to the S&P forward P/E, it's at seven. So we're below one standard deviation cheap to the S&P 500 right now in international. So even though it's rallied significantly, S&P's rallied as well. The earnings have pretty expensive in terms of P/E ratios for the S&P, so can still make the case it's not as cheap as it was at the start of the year, but relatively cheap here. So another reason maybe international can work.

Jeff Buchbinder (24:27):

Yeah, the international earnings estimates have been downgraded a little bit more than U.S. earnings estimates, particularly Europe. So you know, you have, maybe you don't have as much fundamental support from the earnings picture, but then again, U.S. earnings have to come down too. We'll talk about that in a moment. So hey, there's the segue. So let's turn to earnings season. You know, I titled this section, "The Rear View Mirror Looks Good, the Windshield, Not So Much" mm-hmm <affirmative>. Because you've got good numbers looking backward, but looking forward, we really don't have a lot of visibility. So that's kind of the theme of this week's weekly commentary, which you can find on lpl.com. Here's earnings growth year over year by quarter. And you see we have this boom in Q4, another boom in Q1, up over 13% year over year.

Jeff Buchbinder (25:18):

Now that is inflated by some very easy comparisons in healthcare. So you probably, it's really more legitimately a high single digit kind of a number, but still solid earnings growth. But look at the forward three quarters, you've got 5, 8, 7 rounded, and those numbers are inflated because we haven't put tariffs in there yet. Somewhat, you know, some of the impact of tariffs is in there. Of course, we don't know what tariffs are going to be, but you've got probably more numbers more earnings to come out of these estimates. And, you know, maybe something even in the sort of 3-5% range is a good expectation there. So estimates are still too high. I'll show you the actual point estimate in a minute. You know, this kind of ties into our preference for growth stocks. It's a slight preference, but we still have a preference for growth stocks.

Jeff Buchbinder (26:17):

The earnings power, it also ties to our preference for large caps, by the way. The earnings power of the Mag Seven is still far outpacing that of the rest of the market. So this is the difference between Mag Seven earnings growth by quarter and the rest of the market by quarter. You see this gap is still 20%. That is huge. A lot of folks were talking about maybe this gap going to 10% this year or even lower. We're not even close, we're not even making any progress really yet in narrowing this gap. So stick with large, stick with large growth. The Mag Seven reiterated their capital investment guidance. This is of course, AI. To be honest, I did not expect that in fact, even Meta increased it. So outlook for earnings from tech still very, very strong. Now, the scrutiny will increase on the capital investment on AI over time, but for now we think this is bullish and this is positive for the Mag Seven.

Jeff Buchbinder (27:20):

Here's your overall S&P 500 earnings per share estimates. This is consensus from FactSet. And the point I want to make here is these really haven't dropped very much. 263 is still well above the high end of our expected range of 255, but that the tariff assumptions in 255 might be a little too onerous. So as we wrote in the piece, maybe there's, maybe 260 is a better number to use if you want to think about a blue sky scenario for tariffs. But if some of these tariffs go back up again, you know, from 10%, or in China's case even a little higher than 10%, then you've got more of a hit to earnings. So maybe that's the range to think about right now, 255 to 260, but we're going to learn a lot in the next month, right? That's when we get the you know, the negotiations, the trade deals, and the July 9 deadline when the pause ends. So a lot of uncertainty, not a lot of visibility. That's what we heard from a lot of companies this quarter. Many of the companies giving guidance just said, you know what? We don't know what tariffs are going to be. Here's guidance ex tariffs, and then we'll wait and see. So that's why we think these numbers need to come down and probably materially over the next month or so. So, thoughts on earnings, Adam, before we preview the week ahead?

Adam Turnquist (28:46):

I think you nailed it with just the lack of clarity. We've had one trade deal with the U.K. announced, so to even provide guidance, there's a huge question mark on that. I mean, look at what Apple faced on Friday. You have these so-called "tape bombs" coming out of the White House. So the market tends to, I think discount some of that maybe a little bit, but more to come on how that, you know, really gets what works out over the next month or so. Again, that maybe is some much needed clarity or we get further delays and we're sitting here wondering what the tariff rates will ever be. <Laugh>, we'll see.

Jeff Buchbinder (29:21):

Yeah, the fact that Trump pulled back the tariff threat on the EU and now they're reportedly fast tracking negotiations is a big positive. We obviously got a positive development on China and talks with Japan are moving along pretty quickly apparently. So good things are happening but we just got to get over the finish line on some of these so the market can have confidence where these tariff rates will land and where they will stay. A lot of uncertainty still. So that's that. Let's move on. Weekly Market Commentary, lpl.com on earnings. All right, preview the week ahead. Hey, more earnings <laugh>, Adam, because it's NVIDIA week but we also get some important inflation data with the PCE. So here's your calendar and all my stars. You know, I think the core PCE matters a little less than it normally does, right? Because it doesn't have much in the way of tariffs in it still, but it has some, it has some tariff in it. And yet economist consensus is for that number to cool a bit. The core PCE year over year down from 2.6 to 2.5, we'll see if we get it. Lower oil prices help but that's probably the biggest data point of the week. Anything jump out at you besides that Adam to watch?

Adam Turnquist (30:43):

That's going to be the big one, I think. Of course, University of Michigan, some of the sentiment there regarding their inflation outlook, whether it's the big, the one year or the longer term inflation, that five to 10 year inflation, those have not really come down in a consistent way. You can see 7.3% in the prior. Now some of this is political when you break some of the expectations down. So there probably should be an asterisk there when they put the data out. But that will be another big one, of course, how that looks stacked up to PCEVIDI. And then of course, the headliner this week is going to be NVIDIA earnings. So that will be on Wednesday. I think the market is looking for about a six and a half, 7% move in terms of the options market that's up or down that compares to their average one day move of about 8%. And I was looking at some data in terms of the beat rate for NVIDIA over the last five years. I think they missed revenue one time. Of course, it doesn't mean you always trade higher. It's really a question of by how much I think is the NVIDIA story.

Jeff Buchbinder (31:50):

Yeah, that'll pretty much end earnings season. Although we do get some retailers this week, Costco and Best Buy. We know that Walmart and Target got a lot of scrutiny about how they're handling tariffs and price increases. You will get that same scrutiny on Costco and Best Buy. So we'll see how they do. Best Buy probably got some front running of tariffs, so I suspect there'll be a little bit of a boost to their numbers. But the guidance is going to be, again, clouded just like it has been for all of retail because that sector is so China sensitive and therefore tariff sensitive. So earnings probably be next on my list too, Adam, after that PCE data in terms of what's most important to watch in this holiday shortened week, just four days. And we're off to a really good start so far with the rally today. So let's go ahead and wrap it up there. Thanks Adam. Really great stuff on the charts. Thanks to all of you for joining another LPL Market Signals podcast. Appreciate your support, everybody. Have a wonderful week. Again, hope y'all had a nice Memorial Day weekend. Take care and we'll see you next time.