Ask The Economist About the Fed, Trump 2.0, and Tariffs

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Hello everyone, and welcome to LPL Market Signals. Jeff Bookbinder, your host for today, with my friend and colleague, Jeffrey Roach. How are you today, sir? Thanks for joining.

Jeffrey Roach:

Doing well. Happy to be on this week.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Good to have you back. You get a little bit of a layoff. You've been quite the traveler, but good to be with you. It is Veteran's Day today, November 11, 2024. As we're recording this Monday afternoon. We are certainly grateful for our Veteran's every day, but a special thank you to the veterans listening, those who have served or are currently serving we appreciate that very, very much so, Jeff, anything to add to that?

Jeffrey Roach:

Amen. Indeed.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Verbal retreat, they call it. Verbal retreat. So say that 10 times fast. So thank you to our Veteran's. So here's our agenda for today. It's actually a little bit of a different twist, at least for agenda item number two. One, three, and four are kind of the usual. So we're going to do a market recap, of course, really strongly for stocks last week. So we'll talk about that, of course. The election was part of it, probably a big part, and I'm sure that's what a lot of you are wondering about in terms of how the election will affect the economy, how it'll affect markets. So that's agenda. Number two, ask the economist. So the Fed Trump 2.0 and tariffs are our questions for Jeff. So, Jeff, get ready. You're on the hot seat.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Number three, we will look at the Weekly Market Commentary charts. Their post-election takeaways. So really all of our comments pretty much are going to be election related today. Highlighting some, you know, key implications in terms of the stock market, the bond market, and the Fed. And then last, we will give you a preview of the week ahead. And I got to say, I'm glad there's a little less on the calendar this coming week after all the action last week, needless to say. So starting with the market recap, I call that a post-election sturge. It was one of the best post-election rallies we've ever seen. I'll put that into perspective with the chart here in a minute. But here you see, you know, the S&P 500 are up almost five. And then popular Trump trade, small caps, the Russell 2000 up, 8.6% just huge rallies.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

We haven't seen moves like that in a while. I know for the S&P, it's been over a year since we've seen a one week move bigger than that. I'm not sure about the Russell two, but we haven't had too many moves, bigger than eight since the pandemic. It was a very cyclical week where you had, you know, energy, consumer discretionary industrials and technology, all economically sensitive, all market sensitive, doing best in the defensive sectors, trailed. And then Jeff, something we've talked quite a bit about the dollar, you know, strong dollar, a lot of Trump's policies are considered bullish for the dollar. So what happens when the dollar goes up? Well, typically you see international equities underperform, and that is certainly what we saw last week.

Jeffrey Roach:

Yeah, quite a divergence, Jeff, as you you're showing on the chart, basically, for our listeners, just looking at the right side of this table, you see all the European markets and then of course, Asia Pacific on the bottom right. And a lot of negatives there for Europe and a lot of positives on the left side where we're showing our sector breakouts on the U.S. domestic side. So it really was a win for domestically biased investors.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

And no doubt, also a win for Tesla investors. Tesla shares were up 29% last week. They're continuing our election theme, Elon Musk and President elect Trump getting along quite well lately. That I think is certainly part of that story. So a pretty big week for CD. Turning to the bond market, this is another piece of the rally. The bond market actually was up last week. Despite all the concern that deficit spending would push yields up, you had the Bloomberg bond market index up 0.8% and gains really across the bond sectors, including preferreds, which we still like. Preferreds typically do have interest rate sensitivity, so when maybe a little more than the bond market overall and so when rates drop, tend to see gains for preferreds. I think there's also a deregulation angle, cause a lot of preferreds are banks. Certainly the market is anticipating deregulation from Trump will help the bank sector. So I think there's a little bit of that going on there too. And then oil prices down. So certainly inflation is a concern. It's been a concern for a while. It's still a concern related to potential for more deficit spending. Well, we got a little bit of help from crude down last week. Anything else here you want to highlight, Jeff?

Jeffrey Roach:

And then just a potential repeat, we need to keep our eyes on Japan and the yen. So with that strong dollar, Jeff, as you talked about in response to that Trump election victory had very, very strong dollar action. Very weak yen action. So there's a little bit of that chatter on yen carry trade again. So carry trade was the magic phrase that instigated a lot of volatility early August. So keep your eyes on that going forward.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Absolutely that that volatility in early August was certainly unsettling and glad to be past that for now, and hopefully we'll stay past that. So as we all know, the S&P 500 just keeps going up. We touched 6,000 intraday Friday or above it now again, or right at it, I guess, again as we're recording this. So we'll see what happens with that resistance. You've got not only the big round number as psychological resistance, but you also have the top end of this rising price channel. So our technician, Adam Turnquist, certainly thinks that that will prove to be a test and could be a natural place for this market to roll over. You know, we've expected a pullback for a while, you know, we'll see if we get it now or not.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

But this would be a convenient place technically for stocks to roll over and we continue to see breadth that's not particularly strong. I mean, even the post-election, you know, the Trump trades go up and the Harris trades go down. You're still not seeing great breadth which tells you that maybe this rally is due to to peter out here fairly soon. So I mentioned that that, you know, this is one of the biggest rallies post-election we've ever seen. Well, here's the proof. The one day after the election, this is actually the biggest rally in the S&P 500, or its predecessor index, the S&P 90 since 1928. We got close in 2020 on the Biden win, 2.2%. But this is number one. And of course, as we now know, we just kept on going last week with gains on Thursday and Friday as well.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

So certainly the market liked it. You know, certainly, you know, it's not all blue skies because some of these Trump policies could be negative for the markets at some point. But for now, certainly the market likes the prospect of a Trump 2.0. So, speaking of Trump 2.0, Jeff. It's time to play ask the economist. And you know, these are some tough questions to answer, but I know you've been doing some work on these over the last few days as we prepare to write our 2025 Outlook publication that I know many of you read. So thank you for the support. So why don't we start with the Fed? That's probably the easiest one here. You know, some folks are starting to say that they won't cut in December. So the question here is what are the risks for the Fed, you know, the rest of the year? Could they, you know, be caught off sides depending on what they do next month?

Jeffrey Roach:

Yeah, there are a variety of risks, not just within interest rates, but perhaps within the human resources angle, if you will, Jeff, if you know what I mean. So I'll harken back to a little bit of a funny story. So, Fed met last week, and during the press conference, which happens after the Fed releases, their statement whether the reporters says, okay Chairman Powell, are you going to resign if the President-elect tells you to? And of course, Chair Powell gives a very nice short, brief answer. No. So I think one of the risks, you know, you got to love it. And I think, you know, there, there's a little bit of the chatter and it hearkens back to some of the, you know, the butting of heads between Powell and Trump, you know, years ago.

Jeffrey Roach:

But, you know, conversations, I think Trump's had in saying, hey, you know, I want to get rid of Powell and put someone else in. That's probably not going to happen. It's more just hot talk. I believe, you know, he's got another year, right? A little over a year left in his post, Jerome Powell, that is. And so, you know, we're not, we're probably not going to have to deal with that kind of angle. So back to the question, I think the biggest risk, not necessarily who's going to be in the chairmanship role in the next little bit, but really it's what are, what's the Fed going to do as the economy continues to run hot, but they want to cut rates? And that's, I think they're going to be working through that, not only, you know, as they prepare for 2025, but in the next meeting, the final meeting for the year, December, they're actually going to release an updated summary of economic projection.

Jeffrey Roach:

So that's their flagship report where they publish all the forecasts for inflation, for growth, for rates. And so I think the biggest thing here is to say, alright, we do think inflation's easing maybe not fast enough, but the economy is continuing to run pretty hot. And so that might be part of the reason why we see yields a little bit higher over the last month or so. So the biggest risk is managing not making the mistake of becoming too easy, too accommodative, at the same time as the economy continues to run on the hotter side. So expect a lot more rhetoric going into the December meeting. And then, of course, kind of a corollary to that, a risk to the Fed is if they're data-dependent as they are, and data is wonky, whether it's because of storm-related impacts on payroll, for example, or massive revisions to income. Data revisions make the job the Fed's job a lot harder. That's certainly another risk that you have to manage and work through throughout this year and next.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Oh, yeah, I mean, of course you're the economist, that's why you're answering the ask the economist questions. But I can tell you from my amateur following of the data, I've never seen revision craziness like this in my entire career, and that spans a pretty long time. So yeah, the Fed, I mean, they were too late to hike rates initially, and then they've probably been a little slow to take them down, but really the big mistake was being too slow to hike a couple of years ago. So they, they don't want another misstep. They, I think they've done a good job lately. But yeah, the decisions are going to get tougher, I think that's fair to say. So let's go to the next question. Sorry, I didn't build in a fancy animation here into my PowerPoint slide.

Jeffrey Roach:

It had a little trumpet sound in the back, you know?

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Yeah. But you know, we're not going to do the build of the bullet points, but how are economic conditions different for Trump 2.0 than 1.0? And one, I know China is one difference that you wanted to point out, but certainly there are others,

Jeffrey Roach:

Right? So you think about 2016 to 2020 the economy was chugging along, but there weren't very strong conditions, whether in labor markets, certainly not as tight labor markets back then than it is now. So what's what I think's interesting for the Trump strategy, and he, you know, he likes to say he's a negotiator. I think what's interesting is in some ways 2.0 might be better off than 1.0. So, and I'll defend that decision or that statement by this. You think about the previous administration, China was growing 7% year over year, whereas U.S., we were kind of sluggish 2018, 2019. In fact, remember the Fed actually was cutting rates in 2019 because the economy was slowing. So in some sense, perhaps China was having a little bit of the upper hand. I'm just picking on China because, you know, that's kind of the big focus on trade relations, et cetera.

Jeffrey Roach:

Well, fast forward from the 1.0 administration to this 2.0 administration, you have China with a lot more headwinds. You have China growing a lot slower. You have a global geopolitical risks continuing uncertainty in Middle East, of course, Russia, and at the same time, seems to have, you have a much stronger, stable, kind of center mass in the consumer spending standpoint. The consumer now is much better off than, say, in 2017, 2016, 2017, 2018. So what's interesting is perhaps the U.S. and its ability to tout its growth and its strength relative to some of the other major trading partners might actually give a little bit more of an upper hand to the Trump 2.0 administration. So I think that's going to be really important to watch. Those economic conditions certainly are the foundations for the debates on how to manage trade, how to really how to make Treasuries attractive, that global appetite to remain high, right? If we're deficit spending and we're trying to finance that spending, we need to make sure that we have the conditions where the world continues to see our debt as relatively attractive as compared to other sovereign debt. So track that, that's why it's so important to have growth continue. And where we are in terms of fiscal policy, do we have pro-growth policies? That's certainly going to be a key point here. So economic conditions probably better than they were say, 5, 6, 7 years ago.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Yeah, as Trump goes into this trade negotiation with China next year he might have additional leverage. So that's a really good point that, you know, I hadn't thought too much about. And my guess is many of our listeners had not thought too much about that either. So see how that goes. And also, it's worth noting we're going to get tariffs before we're going to get tax cuts. So another reason why maybe we think this market needs to slow down a bit. Might be getting a little bit ahead of itself. I'll talk more about that in a minute. So last question for you, Jeff. How should we think about tariffs? Speaking of tariffs, you know, how do you expect them to sort of impact economic growth or impact, you know, consumer inflation, profit margins, all of that?

Jeffrey Roach:

Right? So you actually were talking about this before we went live on this podcast. And Jeff, this was one of the things I wanted to highlight. This is fantastic. When you think about tariffs, I mean, it certainly is tax in that sense but there's a little bit of uncertainty on where that tax will show up. So it's possible that importers could absorb it, right? That's one option. One option is, you know, importers end up moving to an alternative, right? Moving from one source to another. And then of course, the third option is, yeah, it increases consumer prices. And then of course, there's a combination of all three and everything goes down to the, I think, at the core it's the actual calculation of this tariff. You get the rate, whatever that rate is, times the custom value, times how much of this stuff you're bringing into the country.

Jeffrey Roach:

And what's really interesting is, you got to focus on what is and who sets the customs value. And one of the things I want to make sure our listeners realize is a customs value is definitely not the same and should not be equated to retail value. So hence I think it's very possible that you know, one of the things that we want to think through is how bad will it go? And how quickly and will it go one for one translate the tax via tariff all the way to the consumer? Probably not likely, but even more importantly, Jeff, and this is what your call out was before we started recording here, and that is, you know, lobbyists do a great job creating all kinds of exemptions, right? So, you know, let's try to get this list of items exempted here.

Jeffrey Roach:

And, you know, everybody starts slicing and dicing these things. And it's very possible that the end consumer, you know, when you're buying your iPhone or buying you know, your retail products, perhaps the tariff doesn't impact consumer prices as much as you might think. Now, granted it all depends on how well that lobbyist can work the Capitol Hill, getting those exemptions. But yeah, the three things to think about is, okay, the importer could absorb the tariff, the importer could move to an alternative, or the consumer absorbs the tariff, or a combination of all three. Those are the scenarios you need to work through in your head when you think about how bad a tariff might impact or may not impact consumer prices and inflation.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Right? So Trump 1.0 was more about tariffs sort of deep in the supply chain, right? Things that consumers really didn't see. This time, you know, the rhetoric is tougher. We'll see how this plays out when we start getting into it. cause We have to worry about retaliation as well. But frankly, I mean, putting attacks on iPhones or frankly just about any other consumer good, where people actually notice the price increase, that's not, you know, going to win you any political points. So we'll see in his last term how much political capital Trump wants to play. But that that's going to be something really important to watch. Do we just get, you know, things like steel and aluminum and washing machines, right? Which got all the headlines last time. Or do we get something, you know, that we really maybe feel more frequently or, or more impactfully? I guess the way... Oh, go ahead, Jeff.

Jeffrey Roach:

Well, I was going to say something you know, Musk will certainly be in favor of tariffs on his competitors electric vehicles, for sure.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

No doubt.

Jeffrey Roach:

Be something where the consumer will truly feel that impact.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Yeah. That was happening maybe before Musk and Trump started working together, you know, the sort of EV tariffs on Europe and all of that. But yeah, you could end up seeing all that escalate. We'll have to see how this plays out, but I think that's, I mean, that's why Tim Cook called Trump before the election, right? He wants to have a good relationship with him. And there's your lobbyist, the best lobbyist for Apples, probably Tim Cook, but I'm sure they have a government affairs group that's doing the same thing behind the scenes. So as do we at LPL. So yeah, all good stuff, Jeff. So I guess the way I think about tariffs as an equity strategist is more around how does it impact corporate profits, right? And it really impacts corporate profits.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Two ways. You have profit margin hits. If the company absorbs the tariff, which obviously is negative, and then in a tit for tat or China or another country retaliates, then you actually can shrink the market opportunity for companies in the U.S. doing business in China or other countries. And that is negative for revenue. So you can have a margin hit and a revenue hit then if, you know, you have to move your supply chain, you have costs associated with that. Maybe you need the industrial companies to help you do that. You like the industrial sector but it is still a cost. So we're talking about, you know, the cost associated with this America first positioning that Trump has. It could potentially be inflationary in some ways, although a lot of it's just a one-time cost. And so you may have, you know, a short term inflation bump but not a long term one.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

So we're going to keep going on some of these same topics here because our Weekly Market Commentary is post-election reactions kind of a team effort, Jeff, between you, me, Lawrence Gillum, our fixed income strategist, and Adam Turnquist, our technician. So Adam put this chart together, which is interesting. This is a study that shows how the stock market does after you get a post-election day gain versus a post-election day decline, right? So, of course, we already just showed you that we got to, and we all know we got a post-election day pop. When that happens, you see the blue bars, those are the gains, the next 1, 3, 6, and 12 months on average. And these are some pretty attractive gains. If you're down post-election and of course we weren't but if we had been, then you're looking at average declines over one in three months and much more modest gains.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

So this certainly is a positive signal that the market likes the outcome of the election. That's not political, that's just fact. And then I kind of added this little nugget here that I saw from Bespoke Investment Group. Our friends over there that we actually quote their stats a lot here. If the S&P 500 is up over 20% on November 8, which it was this time, of course, the index has gone on to gain an average of 3.3% the rest of the year gains 88% of the time. So what does that tell you? That says the trend is your friend and the odds that will keep going higher for the next two months or almost two months, seven weeks are quite good. So we'll have to wait and see. Anything can happen, but the odds are on our favor.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

All right, in our favor. So we talked about the S&P 500 quite a bit, but let's talk about the Russell. Russell is about to make an all-time high for the first time in three years. That is a long gap between record highs. And that is a very bullish technical development, similar to what we saw in the nikkei not too long ago when they broke out to their first high in 30 something years. But here's the problem, and here's why we think maybe this post-Trump rally is possibly overdone relative strength on the Russell two versus the S&P 500 has actually been trending lower. And I mean, you've got a little bit of a hook higher here lately, but it could be another head fake, just like we've seen on several occasions recently. You see these arrows pointing out that the small cap excitement was suppressed by a relative downtrend.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

So we'll see, you know, if this breakout is a head fake or not on the relative strength chart, but frankly, we're not yet convinced that small caps are an outperformer that can be sustained. So the couple other points here, you know, everybody says small caps are domestic, so they should do better in a Trump, you know, American first agenda. Well, they're pretty global now. In fact, about 30% of profits from the S&P 600, which is another small cap index, are generated outside the U.S. That's not that far behind the S&P 500. You know, maybe just a few points. Not all companies report their geographic segments, but we would estimate it's just a few points difference. So, you know, small cap companies are going to be exposed tariffs as well. And then also a lot of people like small caps because they're going to get tax cuts and they benefit more from tax cuts cause they pay higher tax rates.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Well, we'll see, but it's going to be tough to cut taxes from here, even though Trump wants to do that because as we all know, deficits are big and they're getting bigger. So couple of reasons to think that maybe this small cap rally peters out. It could run through the year, but we wouldn't get too excited about it. And we're still neutral on small. So Jeff, let me go to you for this one. This is from Lawrence Gillum on on Treasury yields pointing out that maybe, you know, well, let me put it this way. The market is managing this rise in treasury yields quite well. So I think this analysis helps us understand why,

Jeffrey Roach:

Right? A couple things. One is, you know, we're getting to a more dis inverted state, right? So we don't have that inverted yield curve anymore. So longer-end bond yields are higher than shorter-end. That's quote unquote a good thing. And also, I think the second key takeaway here is given the fact that the economy is growing better than what we thought, you know, personal income growth actually rising higher than originally published, the revisions show that consumers are getting paid well and, and spending well. And so the fact that we've had fairly stronger growth than what we thought looked like, you know, a slowdown early in 2024, that slowdown has not really materialized. Hence yields advancing because of that. I think that's a great way to think about it. Perhaps you could say maybe markets are pricing in that you know, the Fed could be slowing down the pace, or at least markets need to reassess the pace at which the Fed will cut rates going into 2025. It's not going to be a full percent and a half, maybe just maybe just 1% more by 20 by the end of 2025. So yields kind of chugging higher, not alarmingly so, as you said, Jeff. Markets digested it pretty well and rolled with the punches because of perhaps maybe this, this trudging higher has been fairly measured and consistent, nothing too out of the ordinary.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Yes. And as we show on the chart this sort of, I don't know, aqua sea green colored line, you know that the economic surprise index has been, economic data has been beating expectations at a real steady clip. So the rise in yields is more about better growth than it's about an inflation scare. This is not a stagflation kind of kind of picture. So, you know, it was, it wasn't as clear what rates were doing on that last chart. It's a little tough to read the numbers. So I threw in this technical chart of the 10-year yield. And then just to show you, you know, 430 was kind of the level where yields had impacted stocks, right? It was a few months ago, but you know, we did have some volatility around a 4, 3, 10 year yield. That is pretty much right where we are right now. Actually, it is where we are right now.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Because the bond market's closed today on Monday as we're recording this for Veteran's Day. But you know, we'll see again, since it's more growth driven than inflation driven we might be able to handle a little higher. So we'll see what happens if we, we break this sort of downtrend or pennant shaped formation. But maybe the market can hire a handle for five, maybe the market can handle five. It certainly handled five in the nineties and there are a lot of similarities between this market environment and the nineties environment, you know, with the AI boom versus the internet boom, back then, we'll have to see. But right now we're, you know, a little nervous, but not too nervous that rates are going to drive stocks down. We'll see what happens around this four 30 level, which is important technically.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

And then the bottom, this relative strength index at 59, that's a comfortable number that is consistent. Jeff, with what you were saying, it's been kind of a gradual move higher. We've pulled back a little bit last week. Certainly the stock market and the bottom market liked seeing that. So let's preview the week ahead now, Jeff. And we've got two important data points, but again, it feels like a lot less is going on this week than last week. I mean, remember we had a hundred S&P 500 companies reporting results last week while we had the Fed meeting and the election. Now we get just 12 companies reporting earnings this week. But a couple of key data points.

Jeffrey Roach:

There's a few all-nighters last week, probably done by many of us. Of course, I was actually taking a red-eye back from San Diego to Charlotte.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

That doesn't count as an all-nighter. I've had a few late nights, no, all-nighters, but it was worth it. It's important stuff.

Jeffrey Roach:

So yeah, two main things here. The inflation stats and then retail sales. We got inflation coming in two parts, if you will. One is consumer price index, the consumer side, and then the following day, PPI, stands for Producer Price Index for those listeners not informed on all the acronyms that we use. Consumer price index, producer price index. A key takeaway here is markets could get a little bit choppy just because we might have some head fakes coming in a little bit hotter than our normal month on month changes. Particularly with some of the medical care services. Insurance is still a challenge and transportation services, some of those items. But I think it doesn't necessarily change the overall trend that inflation's easing, but that inflation perhaps is getting a little more stubborn against reaching that 2% target that the Fed has.

Jeffrey Roach:

So that's CPI, PPI. There's a start there on the claims numbers that comes out every Thursday morning, 8:30 Eastern. Just a reminder to everybody. And one of the reasons why that gets market attention so much is it's weekly, so it's higher frequency, it's one of the leading indicators, helps us understand where the job market is going. Which of course rolls into income growth, which rolls into consumer spending, which is two thirds of the U.S. economy. So always an important item to track. Even though for the last, pretty much last year or more, the claims reports have been pretty boring cause it's been very range bound. And then the final star there is retail sales for October. Just a reminder, you know, we had a not prime day, whatever they call it Amazon Big Deals days early October.

Jeffrey Roach:

So that'll be interesting. I think some of us will try to digest the October metrics and try to tease out what we might think for holiday sales going into November, December. And that certainly is key for the consumer. But at this point the consumer, particularly as I've been saying to you, Jeff and some of my colleagues here internally, the well-healed millennials, they seem to be the real winners here. Being well paid, hitting their peak earning years, peak spending years. So watch that cohort. But we'll get some interesting data this week. But certainly Jeff, you're right, not half as lively as we we had to deal with last week certainly with the Fed meeting and a presidential election.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Absolutely. Yeah, the earnings have been good. You have to adjust for a couple of big charges. Boeing and Apple. Apple had a tax settlement in Europe that was 10.2 billion. If you take those two things out, those two companies out you end up with about 8% earnings growth year over year, which is faster than I thought we'd get for Q3. So that's a really solid number. And estimates have held up a little better than they normally do. So that's positive. And the you know, the trajectory from here gets a little bit better. So we could see double digit earnings growth starting next quarter and maybe for several quarters after that, we'll have to wait and see. Tough to predict, but certainly seems like a reasonable base case to say double digit earnings growth from here through the end of 2025.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

That's not even consensus is higher than that. So you know, despite the drags from the energy sector and even materials, they were pretty significant drags. To put up near double digits is impressive margin. You know, a lot of people worried about margins. Well, we're going to worry about margins next year when we get tariffs. But worried about margins and they have held. Even if, depending on how you do the math with, you know, excluding Boeing and Apple, you could have a little bit of margin expansion. Even this quarter there's, there's still another, oh, let's see, maybe like 40 companies left, 45 companies left in the S&P to report. But we only get 12 of those this week and then we get a little bit more action the following week when we start to hear from the retailers. So the retailers would be interesting, Jeff, cause we'll hear about what they're thinking for holiday shopping season.

Jeffrey Roach:

Yeah, that's right.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

I know it seems early, but it's not. It's not. So start doing your shopping now before those big lines on Black Friday or whatever they call Thanksgiving holiday shopping now. So with that I think we'll go and wrap up. So Jeff, next time you're on, I want to hear your 2025 economic outlook because by the time you're on again, I think we're going to probably have that thing published.

Jeffrey Roach:

Yes, that will be it.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Four weeks away?

Jeffrey Roach:

Thanksgiving and yeah, probably after Thanksgiving, cyber Monday and all that. So very good to be with you this time around, Jeff.

Jeffrey Buchbinder:

Likewise, always enjoy the Jeff and Jeff show. So thanks for joining all of you. We really greatly appreciate your support of the LPL Market Signals podcast. And we will be back with you next week for another edition. See you then. Take care.