Ongoing Bank Stress: Who’s to Blame?

Jeff (00:00):

Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest edition of LPL Market Signals. Jeff Buchbinder, here, your host for this week, and with my friend and colleague Adam Turnquist. Adam, how are you today? Happy Monday.

Adam (00:13):

Hey, how are you doing? Thanks for having me back.

New Speaker (00:15):

You got it. You got it. It has nothing to do with the fact that most of the team is out of town, <laugh>, I really wanted to be on here with you. So, it is your turn. So yeah, got a little more full agenda maybe than we normally do. So, here's what we're going to talk about today for the next half hour, of course, recap the markets, as always. I think my number one takeaway from last week's market action is just wild. The market's really resilient in the face of all of these bank stress headlines.

Jeff (00:48):

So of course, Adam, you're the technician. So, we're going to talk about the technical at the S&P and the December indicator, which we mentioned here before. But now that we're getting really close to the end of the quarter, it's Monday, March 27, 2023, as we record this, that December indicator is getting a lot more interesting. Looks good. Next, we're going to just promote the Weekly Market Commentary on lpl.com, which is "Who's to Blame for Silicon Valley Bank's Failure?", wrote that with Quincy Krosby. Finally, of course, this is your thing, Adam. We'll talk charts and then preview the week ahead. So, let's start here with the recap of last week's equity market action. And there are some interesting things here. So, I already kind of gave you the, the main headline, right?

Jeff (01:42):

Which is you know, a good week despite all the news flow around the banks, which extended a Friday, right? We had Deutsche Bank pop up as a potential concern, double digit, selloff, intraday and that stock. Thankfully, today, the stocks come back a little bit and the market seems to be more comfortable with that story. But nonetheless, solid week S&P 500 up 1.4% and NASDAQ fared a little bit better. Dow fared a little bit worse. That's a second straight up week for stocks. Europe up also. So, it was kind of a, I don't know, call it a global coordinated rally here last week for Europe. We had you know, mostly gains in Asia as well. And then on the sector side I'll let you weigh in on this, Adam.

Jeff (02:36):

I mean, the big winner was communication services. You've highlighted this, you know, in recent investment committee meetings, that the technical picture for communication services has gotten quite a bit better. So big winner up 3.4%, of course, as pretty much always the case with that sector. Google and Facebook are doing most of the work there, or Meta and Alphabet. So, that was the big the big winner. The market's certainly getting a little excited about the potential action against TikTok, which would help its competitors in that sector. You want to comment on anything there or any other sectors you want to highlight in terms of last week's performance that you think are especially interesting?

Adam (03:19):

Yeah, at least at the sector level, it was largely offensive driven. When you look at the performance last week, you can see utilities and real estate underperforming, which is pretty remarkable considering the backdrop that we were in with banking turmoil continuing to take place. You know, even the financial sector managed to close in the green last week. So going back to that resilient theme, and I think it's pretty impressive. Overall, buying pressure, in terms of the weekly advancers, they did outpace declining shares by right around two to one last week. So, it was pretty widespread in terms of total stocks advancing. And then one thing that's not on here that was at least newsworthy or worth highlighting, I think is just the VIX, or the volatility index, that was down 15% last week, did close below the 200-day moving average. I've always looked at that 200-day as kind of a barometer for risk on or risk off. So, when you're below it, it does suggest, just in a simple term, that, you know, we're moving back to more of a risk on environment. So, it's notable to see that drop last week on the VIX.

Jeff (04:25):

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the path of least resistance probably still higher here at this point. So, let's go to fixed income and commodities. I mean, in looking at these bond returns, I mean, my first thought is, wow, what a great, you know, great March <laugh>, and if rates just stay where they are, you could end up with, you know, a high single digit kind of returns across much of the bond market. So, you know, bonds clearly the move down in rates recently supported by the bank's stress, right? And which is translated into the market pricing in fewer Fed rate hikes. And then you've also had, obviously an improvement in inflation. So, rates down, of course, is bonds up. That is nice to see, especially after the pain that we experienced in the bond market last year. Turning to commodities. We've highlighted metals recently as having some nice charts, Adam. We, in particular, like precious metals related investments right here, it's not just technicals. It's also the potential for a weak dollar which we'll get to in a minute. Anything to add there?

Adam (05:38):

Yeah, I think just lastly on energy that's been ab it of a disappointment can see it's kind of dragging down the broader commodity index, especially crude oil. Just over the last, you know, last several weeks, we've seen crude oil take out some key support levels. And same thing with natural gas, that's been kind of this falling knife on the technical side. So, I think a lot of investors are looking for a bottom in that energy complex. Haven't quite seen it yet, but we're definitely seeing extremes when you look at overall positioning in terms of the futures market. I know I noticed last week that the short positions among managed money or speculative positions, they actually reached a four year high on crude oil last week. So, you know, when you get to those extreme levels, those are often contrarian points in terms of positioning. So, we'll see if that has any indication of crude finally finding a bottom here.

Jeff (06:32):

Yeah, I have noticed a little bit of an uptick in crude oil lately. We probably want stable oil, not much higher oil <laugh>, right? Yeah. Just from, you know, the perspective of the economy, but from the perspective of the S&P 500 certainly energy matters. So, let's move on, look at the S&P500 certainly impacts people, investors, more than crude oil. This is actually I mean this is exciting, I think for me, for two reasons, right? Even though I'm not the technician you are, but, you know, we were just hovering right on top of that 200-day moving average for a few days, and it could have gone either way. I think we used the phrase like, technical no man's land at one point a couple weeks ago. And now here we are with a really nice cushion.

Jeff (07:24):

At last check we were up a little bit today on the S&P as well, this was an intraday chart, so we've got a nice cushion above the 200-day moving average. But also have the December you know, December Low's Indicator, which we'll get to more in a bit. So, I look at this chart, I mean, you mentioned the good breadth, Adam, I think you know, this looks fairly positive to me. We're not you know, so naive as to think that there can't be some sort of, you know, fundamental challenge that gets in the way here. We know that you know, economic growth is slowing, inflation's still a problem, and the banking system is clearly still a little bit fragile. But just from the technical perspective, this looks pretty good to me.

Adam (08:09):

Yeah, absolutely. And I think the big question that investors are asking is really, is this another bear market rally this year? The technical evidence right now suggests the answer to that is no. You know, right now we're back above the 200-day moving average, as you noted. We did bounce right around those December lows earlier this month when we did get some weakness related to the banking turmoil. But I think it's notable to see that buyers are actually stepping in and buying the dip this year. Opposed to last year, it was the complete opposite where it was sell the rip type of mentality. So, we're seeing a change, I think, in terms of sentiment among investors right now where they are stepping up and buying the S&P 500 on these pullbacks. Clearly that 200-day moving average is a level that we're watching closely.

Adam (08:58):

If we do get some follow through buying this week, the next key level that we're watching is 4,014. That's the 50-day moving average, hanging right overhead. If we get above that 50-day moving average, that would also place the S&P 500 back above its uptrend off those October lows. So, a pretty constructive move if we can get there. In terms of downside, you still have the 200-day, the level there we're watching is 3,932. The big level, if we get any type of downside would be the December lows at 3,783. I think that's really going to be key to this recovery narrative. So, so far, like you said, we do have a pretty good cushion there. When we look underneath the surface, you know, the recent selling pressure has damaged market breadth, and there's less than half the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, but we are seeing an improvement in overall momentum. We did get a buy signal in the MACD indicator last week, so some pretty constructive signs in terms of momentum shifting the other way now.

Jeff (10:03):

Excellent. I like it when our views of charts line up <laugh>. So, you know, you can't talk about the stock market right now without talking about the banks. So, we almost feel like it's an obligatory credit default swap mention in this environment, giving, you know, some flashbacks to 2008. But the good news is when you look at credit default swaps, which are essentially insurance policies against an issuer default, right? The cost of those policies, those insurance policies for banks have risen. You can see that in this chart, got that spike all the way to the right. Adam, thank you for making this chart, but the good news is you look back at, well, even to, 2020, but more importantly, 2008 and even 2011, the whole, you know, Greek/European debt crisis, these U.S. bank credit default swap prices were quite a bit higher. So, it's stress, but it's not, you know, anything close to a 2008, which is good news. Anything to add there, Adam, you're watching these closely.

Adam (11:15):

Yeah, we watch them close and I think you nailed it. We're not at those crisis error levels. Certainly, it does suggest there's some risk in the market, but again, not anything like 2008, 2009 when, you know, you couldn't get Lehman Brothers to finish your trade on the other end, which I remember that one when I was on a fixed income desk, and I was trying to figure out what CDS levels were back then. So, certainly a different feel this time than back then, for me at least.

Jeff (11:44):

Yeah, you're a pretty young guy still, so yeah, you were certainly pretty young back then. I'll certainly never forget going through 2008. This is just very different from, you know, based on the picture you're seeing in front of you with the CDS, but it's also different because we're talking about treasuries and interest rate risk rather than credit risk, right? And then the system isn't as leveraged as it used to be. So, not even close <laugh>, right? And that's why the banking system has generally held up well, and people, you know, aren't concerned about these systemically important banks. We're still concerned about, you know, some of the smaller banks that clearly are challenged. But as we'll get to in a minute, a lot of the problems are more around individual bank mismanagement you know, as opposed to any sort of broad systemic crisis.

Jeff (12:34):

So while the market waits to, you know, get more information and you know, ascertain what banks have more risk you know, that they should be worried about, markets are going to be a little bit jittery, but we actually think we can move through this fairly quickly. And you know, maybe first quarter earnings season is the marker. We'll wait and see, so we'll keep watching these. You know, equity analysts become fixed income analysts during times of stress. So, you know, I guess, Lawrence, make room for us. We're joining your team <laugh>. So, let's go to this promo of the Weekly Market Commentary. Who's to blame? You know, people like to blame somebody <laugh>, right? I think you've even seen you know, politicians blame J. Powell, right? The Fed chair. You've seen a lot of people blame Silicon Valley Bank management, right?

Jeff (13:30):

So, the question we pose and we cover in this weekly commentary is, you know, whose fault is it? You know, I would certainly argue the bank regulators have a lot of fault here, but frankly, I think Silicon Valley Bank management probably deserves more blame for this. The mismanagement was it was really an outlier. We'll just say it like that. And this is good, right? This should give us comfort that there aren't a whole lot more Silicon Valley Bank problems out there, right? We talked about this a couple of weeks ago right here, you know, making the point that, you know, the VC flows, the VC related deposits weren't sticky. So, they left very quickly. They had a very small, concentrated customer base with huge amounts of uninsured deposits. That on top of the fact that they mismanaged their balance sheet, it was really like a perfect storm.

Jeff (14:28):

And it's not being repeated much. You know, we've had a couple other banks fail. We'll probably have a few more here and there. Hopefully they'll be very small. But the situation looks contained based on the actions of the regulators, the FDIC, the Fed and the Treasury. So, you know, I think that's where most of the blame lies. The bank regulators clearly missed something. But you also have fiscal policy, right? We have this inflationary environment that created the need for the Fed to, at one point the market saw 575, right? Saw another three more hikes beyond where we are today. And the inverted yield curve and all of that created the conditions, the extreme interest rate volatility helped create the conditions for this as well. So, there's a lot of blame to go around. But you know, I guess if I had to rank these <laugh>, I might put Silicon Valley Bank management first, bank regulators second. But it's more than that. What do you think, Adam? How would you rank these?

Adam (15:32):

Yeah, I think that's a pretty fair rank order. I think it's interesting too, just to think about if they had a proper hedge or if they understood duration risk. You know, let's just theoretically say they had T-bills on their balance sheet, I don't know if we'd be talking about it today, because there'd be more liquidity and less duration risk. So, I think the fact that it's not a credit event certainly helps the market in terms of, you know, getting back and some of that confidence in the banking system.

Jeff (16:03):

Yeah, just knowing that this is a very unique situation should be comforting to investors out there. So, you know, hopefully we can stop talking about this stuff soon, <laugh>, but right now you know, the LPL Research Asset Allocation Committee is very comfortable with where we're at and you know, still generally constructive on the markets. In the Weekly Commentary, we did put a small cap chart on here just to make the point that, you know, there was a little bit of spillover into the broad market, at least the broad small cap market. Because remember, small caps have a lot more banks than large cap indexes do. So, in particular, the Russell 2000 has about 8% banks, and the S&P 500 is more like four. So, you're going to get more weakness in small.

Jeff (16:56):

You're also going to see more weakness in small around credit stress, you know, even though we really don't have a credit event necessarily. You know, again, not anything like 2008, it's still going to increase the cost of credit, and banks are going to pull back a little bit on their lending, and that tends to be an environment where small caps underperform as well. But coming into this period of bank stress, small cap stocks just looked too cheap to us. So, we've continued to recommend them on that valuation discount. And then the potential that if the overall market moves higher, small caps could do a little bit better than large caps. That's generally the pattern. So, you know, the selloffs disappointing certainly here, but we're not necessarily telling folks to sell small caps. How do the technicals look to you, Adam, on small? I mean, they've been, obviously as a result of this weakness recently, the charts have suffered some damage. What should investors be watching?

Adam (18:00):

Certainly, certainly some technical damage on, for example, the Russell 2000, similar to the S&P, though we did not take out those December lows. It was pretty notable that's really where buyers stepped in almost to the penny and started buying small caps again. So, we did get a bounce off that level, and, you know, we're starting to see some of the momentum change. I did see the Russell having a pretty good day today, so we're getting a bit of a relief rally off some of those oversold levels just over the last couple days here.

Jeff (18:30):

Yeah, the banks are up nicely today. It was partly just the fact that we didn't have any more headlines over the weekend, <laugh>, right? No news is good news.

Adam (18:41):

Exactly.

Jeff (18:42):

Probably appropriate there. But you know, there have been some reports of additional actions that regulators could take to kind of ring fence this risk. So, oh, and then Silicon Valley Bank was able to sell, or the FDIC essentially was able to sell a lot of the SVB assets. So, kind of getting that out of the way I think was viewed positively as well. So, you know, certainly strong banks are helping small caps. So, here's your section, Adam, I made you, wait, what about almost 20 minutes to get to your section? So, you take it away and you just tell me when to flip the chart, but I tell you this is, we showed this before, but this is a powerful study here.

Adam (19:28):

Yeah, yeah. I'm going to say you're saving the best for last, right?

Jeff (19:32):

There you go.

Adam (19:33):

I think this one's timely just considering we're wrapping up March and really the first quarter here at the end of the week. So, as a quick backdrop on the December lows, this is a technical indicator that goes back to the 1970s. It was created by a Forbes analyst, or a writer named Lucien Hooper. And he basically made the observation that whenever the S&P 500 breaks below its December low in the first quarter of the following year, it's a pretty bearish sign for equity markets. On the flip side, if it does hold above that December low, it's a pretty bullish sign for equity markets. And that's really what this table is showing us. You can see the quarter over quarter performance for years bifurcated between if it's above or below those December lows. And it's a pretty contrasting story here when the average annual return when you hold above those December lows, it's 18 and a half percent compared to when you break the December lows and you get a bearish sign on that December Lows Indicator, you're pretty much flat.

Adam (20:37):

I think the average is 0.4%. And what's even more notable is the percent of returns that are positive. So, 94% of the time the year finishes higher on the S&P 500. That is if you hold the December low, so a pretty constructive sign. Right now, we're above that level. 3,783 is the number to watch if we start getting a selloff this week. But right now, I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like we're going to hold above those December lows. So, some pretty good seasonal data as we look ahead for the remaining quarters on the year.

Jeff (21:13):

Yeah, it would take a powerful negative catalyst to get us down that much this week possible, but certainly unlikely. And then I know you updated this chart, Adam, the path of the S&P 500 under these either bullish or bearish scenarios, and wow, if you break higher <laugh>, I mean, that's a pretty solid path. Yeah, it's an average path, but a solid path.

Adam (21:38):

Exactly. It's pretty constructive if we can hold above those December lows. You know, you get this acceleration in the first quarter, it starts to taper off a little, but you can clearly see that the trend is higher for the remainder of the year. In the blue or the bright blue, that's this year in terms of where we're at for the market. And you can see that acceleration in January. We've tapered off a little bit since then, but certainly the December Lows Indicator does suggest at least historically that we could see the path of least resistance move higher. And I thought it was also notable if we do break the December lows in Q1, it's not necessarily a sell signal. You really kind of consolidate for most of the year, at least based on the average progression. And I'd also note that the low of the year tends to take place in late March. So, that would be at least one constructive sign, if we do break the lows, maybe that would be the low for the year. You know, you're pretty much flat, flat for the remainder of the year based on that indicator.

Jeff (22:41):

Yeah, you, you do smooth out the volatility when you average a whole bunch of years together.

Adam (22:46):

Yeah, of course, there's that asterisk too.

Jeff (22:48):

Yeah, there's dispersion in there, but nonetheless, it's a powerful pattern and you know, this is one of a number of reasons why we would be careful about being too bearish here. Right? And we actually have slightly above benchmark equity all allocations in our you know, our official Tactical Asset Allocation model. So, thanks for that, Adam.

Adam (23:12):

And it certainly joins a long list of bullish seasonals that we've flagged, whether it's the trifecta, the third year of a presidential cycle, you know, years that follow a down year. I mean, they're all kind of pointing to above average returns for the S&P 500. But, and then here we're looking at the financials. This has clearly been kind of the chart of the last couple weeks as investors are really trying to figure out if the financials sector or the regional banks have found a bottom. This is actually looking at the KBWB Regional Bank Index just over the last, this goes back to 2018, actually, couple things that I wanted to highlight. Just in terms of the technical setup before this banking turmoil, and you really can see a head and shoulders top formation.

Adam (24:01):

I didn't flag it just to keep the chart simple, but there was some technical signals coming into this event that are pretty timely. And right when we broke the neckline of that chart formation, that goes back to the summer lows on that index. You know, that's kind of when this all came unraveled. So, kind of a plug for technical analysis here. But nonetheless, we are holding up above the 2018 lows. The key support level there is 8,450. I think that's a constructive sign that we're not breaking below that level. So that would be the key level to watch. If we did break below that, there'd be certainly some downside risk that would open the door for a potential retest of the 2020 lows, kind of in this 55 to $60 range. So definitely some material downside if we start moving lower.

Adam (24:55):

But clearly conditions were way over sold on the S&P 500, yet nearly three quarters of stocks or financial sector stocks, that is, with an RSI reading of 30 or less. That's the technical threshold for oversold, that's historically high and really commensurate with other major bottoms on the financial sector. So, some signs that maybe this could be the bottom, but certainly not ready to make that call on the technical side here. Still looking for more evidence, we haven't really seen a change in momentum on the bottom panel of this chart. That's the MACD indicator, which is a momentum indicator that we like to use. Oversold, but haven't had that inflection point yet. So, something we're watching for. And then in terms of overall breadth within the regional banks, it's pretty washed out, but we haven't seen any real notable improvements.

Adam (25:46):

The middle panels, just looking at the percentage of regional banks that are above their 200-day moving average, and you're at 2% right now, which is a pretty bearish sign in terms of overall breadth. So, not quite ready to make the call yet on this one being a bottom. Certainly, holding above support is one of the constructive signs here. But I think as we've highlighted, you know, probably the more tactical way to play this is with preferreds, that helps you avoid some of the risk from direct equity exposure. And I think the yield environment there looks pretty constructive as well.

Jeff (26:23):

Yeah, absolutely preferred within fixed income, attractive valuations and, you know, less risk than going equities. But I will say that, you know, on the equity side, the regional bank valuations look pretty enticing. So, you know, there could be an opportunity forming here, but we're just taking more of a wait and see approach. I mean, you don't often see banks, quality banks, I would say trading near their tangible book value. So, it's something to watch for active traders who could find the babies that have been thrown out with the bathwater. Certainly, decent amount of upside here if this is a flush, you know, and the sentiment is as bearish as it's going to get. So, I teased this earlier, Adam, the dollar. This is you know, an interesting looking chart. It tells me this thing's going lowered. Is that your view here? And if so, how much?

Adam (27:23):

Absolutely. So, we've watched this kind of relief rally in the dollar just over the last few months, we'll call it, fade right into overhead resistance. And that's kind of where relief rallies go to die, is that down trends or prior overhead resistance, and that's exactly what's playing out here on the greenback. You can see a bounce back to this kind of 105 area, and now we're just starting to slip below 103 which goes back to your 2020 highs. So, I think that does open the door here for more downside in the dollar, you know, your next major support level is going to be just around a 100.75 on the dollar. And then when you look at momentum, just going back to that MACD indicator here, you've rolled over into a sell signal, so you get more confirmation of downside pressure on the dollar in terms of momentum.

Adam (28:16):

And then lastly, on the bottom panel I think it's important to note just the negative correlation between the dollar and S&P 500. It is getting closer to positive territory, but you know, historically that's a negative correlation. So, as the dollar moves lower, that should help support U.S. equity markets. And I think really the earnings picture is you've noted before. And then also when you apply this to some of the other negatively correlated asset classes, certainly, gold related investments would be a beneficiary here. They've been acting pretty well when you're looking at what's happening with gold markets. So, something to watch here and if we get some follow through selling on the dollar.

Jeff (28:59):

Yeah, and could help international investments too. You know, we're pretty much always advocates of globally diversified portfolios, but that's been a very tough place to be in recent years until now <laugh>, right, just the last few months internationals really helped portfolios and you know, if this dollar move continues to the downside, you're going to see better returns in Europe, which continues to be resilient economically despite the ongoing challenges of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. So it's nice, just like, you know, it's nice to finally get some help from bonds after we didn't last year. It's nice to get some help from international equities as well, which are of course inversely correlated to the dollar. So, glad you highlighted that, Adam, that's an important chart to watch.

Jeff (29:50):

So, let's preview the week real quick. I mean, it's really a quick preview, Adam, because all I really care about is the PCE and consumer confidence. Although I did highlight University of Michigan, because those inflation expectation surveys are interesting. But I think that, you know, the core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. That's, I think, going to get the most attention. 4.7% is consensus year over year on the core, excluding food and energy. The services inflation is still stubbornly sticky, so it's, you know, going to take some time for that to come down. But, you know, Dr. Roach, our Chief Economist, thinks it'll be in the threes, hopefully mid-threes by the end of the year. So I don't know. Other than that, anything else you'd be watching this week, Adam?

Adam (30:37):

No, I mean maybe some of the housing data as well. I was trying to, you know, gauge inflection points with that. We're certainly seeing some improvements, whether it's home builder sentiment, building permits. You know, this week we have some housing data that will hit the tape. But I think going back to your point, it's really going to be all about the PCE and inflation. So, it's going to be the market mover I think for the week.

Jeff (31:00):

Yeah, I mean it is a little bit lagged because we've already seen the CPI and the PPI, but nonetheless a big, big attention getter. We also get some more basketball pretty soon, so I'm going to end with this with the good luck mom <laugh> because my mother did a pool, March Madness Pool, with like a thousand people in it. She's a college basketball fan and she is first right now. Whoa, that's awesome. And she needs UConn. So, she actually had Miami, UConn and Creighton as three of the four teams. Now Creighton didn't make it, but they were close and she got those points for the Elite Eight appearance and then nobody had Florida Atlantic. So if UConn wins or UConn loses to Florida Atlantic in the final, then my mother wins that pool, which would be pretty awesome. I've done this pool since college. I don't want to admit how many years that's been, but it's been a very, very long time. And I actually won it once before when UConn won. So, this could be a repeat within the family. So go UConn, go mom. I'm so glad I have some reason to care because my two teams got bounced early, which was very depressing. <Laugh>, What do you think, Adam? Who are you rooting for?

Adam (32:21):

I had Marquette going quite aways, I'm more of a hockey guy, so I just took the homer from, you know, Wisconsin and went with Marquette and my bracket got busted pretty early. So, I'll go with UConn, I'll join your mom here and route for them, so that would be pretty cool. Kind of a dynasty I guess that would make a dynasty then. Right?

Jeff (32:44):

Buchbinder Dynasty to win, actually my brother's father-in-law won this pool too once in the last 15 years.

Adam (32:51):

Guys are going to get kicked out of here pretty soon.

Jeff (32:52):

Yeah, we don't fill out 400 entries. <Laugh> I can promise you that, but that's just really cool. So yeah, awesome. Hopefully Mom can pull this out because that's a lot of entries in this thing. This thing's been going for over 30 years, so I'll end with that. Thanks, Adam, for joining. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Really fun to do this for you every week. We'll be back next week of course, as we pretty much always are every week with a special guest, right? If you're not on every week you're a special guest, so I don't know who it'll be. But hope those folks traveling. Probably give you the week off next week Adam when they're back. So, everybody have a wonderful week and we'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to LPL Market Signals.