LPL Financial Market Signals Podcast

Two Sides of One Economy l LPL Market Signals Podcast

LPL Research

Consumer spending has upstaged business investment this year, mainly due to uncertainty over trade, but we’re optimistic a trade deal will be reached soon. Global economies are showing signs of recovery.

Subscribe to the Market Signals podcast series on iTunesGoogle PlaySpotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The S&P 500 Index gained for the fifth consecutive week, making multiple new all-time highs in the process. Positive steps on trade have helped multiple global markets break out to new highs.


U.S. consumers are spending at a solid rate, which we expect to continue through the important holiday shopping season that is rapidly approaching. U.S. businesses, on the other hand, are not opening up their wallets, and capital expenditures (capex) growth has stalled. Consumer sentiment has remained elevated through most of this year, while gauges of business and chief-executive-officer confidence have declined to three-year lows.

There are a few tailwinds forming for business spending, though. We’ve seen a gradually improving relationship between the United States and China since early October, as both parties are reportedly interested in signing a limited trade deal to avoid future tariffs. Recent data shows global manufacturing may be bottoming, a key sign of recovery for the global economy.


Optimism that “phase one” of the trade deal with China could still be signed in 2019 remains high. As the LPL strategists discuss, it’s very likely that tariffs will be rolled back on each other’s goods. U.S. companies are holding back on further investment until they have guidance over trade, which is making the need to get a deal in place quite high. Additionally, Chinese economic data is weakening and inflation is spiking, increasing the odds they want a deal as well.


The S&P 500 made new highs recently, yet we are seeing many international countries break out as well. Recently there have been new highs in the United States, India, Canada, and Switzerland, while new 52-week highs have taken place in France, Germany, Greece, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, and Taiwan. This is much different than this time last year, when the U.S was holding strong yet the rest of the globe was quite weak.


The MSCI All-Cap World Ex.-U.S. Index has returned 9.1% since August 19, outpacing the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 Index by about 3 percentage points over that period, and is on the verge of a breakout to new record highs, its first new high in nearly two years.

Tune In Now

Listen to the entire podcast to get the LPL strategists’ views and insights on current market trends in the US and global economies. To listen to previous podcasts go to Market Signals podcast. You can subscribe to Market Signals on iTunesGoogle Play, or Spotify.



The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not bank/credit union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any bank/credit union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.


For Public Use — Tracking #: 1-912394