LPL Financial Market Signals Podcast

Positive Signs for Economic Growth l LPL Market Signals Podcast

April 22, 2019

LPL Research

Listen as LPL Financial’s strategists discuss the current low inflation, what is and isn’t priced into the market, and how it all could play out the rest of 2019.

If Japan and Europe don’t get in the way and just wait for the U.S. and China tides to lift those boats, then we could get back to a scenario where we have synchronized global growth.

- Jeff Buchbinder, LPL Equity Strategist

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In this week’s Market Signals podcast, the discussion focuses on positive economic signs. The latest economic data suggests the U.S. economy may have emerged from its first quarter soft patch. The numbers released thus far for March, including strong retail sales last week, have lifted consensus forecasts for first quarter economic growth to over 2%.

Leading economic indicators and strong fundamentals point to growth ahead. The LPL strategists say they’re encouraged by the strong relative performance by more economically sensitive areas of the market.

The average gain for the S&P 500 Index, historically, over the final three quarters of a calendar year, following a double-digit percentage gain in the first quarter, has been about 6%. However, stocks may need to digest recent gains. That means there may a bit of a pullback in the near term. Historically, after double- digit first quarter gains in the S&P 500, stocks pull back an average of about 9% during the year.

When economic and earnings expectations are low and conditions are improving, as they seem to be currently, it’s typically a good time to own stocks. Although the LPL Strategists note there could be a pickup in volatility in the near term after such a strong rally, they think there could be further gains for stocks over the remainder of the year.

Chart - S & P 500 Index returns years when Q1 Gains were greater than 10% from 1950 to present

 

Tune In Now

Listen to the entire podcast to get the LPL strategists’ take on what this all could mean for the economy throughout the rest of 2019. You can subscribe to Market Signals  on iTunesGoogle PlaySpotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not bank/credit union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any bank/credit union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.

 

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