If Japan and Europe don’t get in the way and just wait for the U.S. and China tides to lift those boats, then we could get back to a scenario where we have synchronized global growth.
In this week’s Market Signals podcast, the discussion focuses on positive economic signs. The latest economic data suggests the U.S. economy may have emerged from its first quarter soft patch. The numbers released thus far for March, including strong retail sales last week, have lifted consensus forecasts for first quarter economic growth to over 2%.
Leading economic indicators and strong fundamentals point to growth ahead. The LPL strategists say they’re encouraged by the strong relative performance by more economically sensitive areas of the market.
The average gain for the S&P 500 Index, historically, over the final three quarters of a calendar year, following a double-digit percentage gain in the first quarter, has been about 6%. However, stocks may need to digest recent gains. That means there may a bit of a pullback in the near term. Historically, after double- digit first quarter gains in the S&P 500, stocks pull back an average of about 9% during the year.
When economic and earnings expectations are low and conditions are improving, as they seem to be currently, it’s typically a good time to own stocks. Although the LPL Strategists note there could be a pickup in volatility in the near term after such a strong rally, they think there could be further gains for stocks over the remainder of the year.
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Listen to the entire podcast to get the LPL strategists’ take on what this all could mean for the economy throughout the rest of 2019. You can subscribe to Market Signals on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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