The economy is showing signs of life, and the record-breaking jobs number from May only added to that notion. The LPL strategists discuss the improving economic data, while also acknowledging that the stock market is in the midst of one of the greatest rallies in history.
Shape of the recovery
The LPL strategists discuss the shape of the recovery: V-, U-, or W-shaped or a swoosh. The economy very well could have turned the corner, as all 50 states have begun to open back up. There are many worries and concerns still out there, however, with a second wave of COVID-19 infections at the top of the list. Confidence from small businesses and continued record stimulus are two drivers for potentially better than expected economic data the rest of 2020.
Jobs, jobs, jobs
“Wow” is all the LPL strategists can say. While many economists expected 7.5 million jobs would be lost in May, US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a record 2.5 million jobs created! Although there were some discrepancies with the data, the fact is the economy could be coming back much faster than most expect, and this is what the record stock market run has been telling us.
The best 50 days ever
Speaking of the record stock market run, the S&P 500 Index just had its best 50-day rally ever. Although we’ve been bullish, we’ll be the first to admit this has surprised even us. Historically, large moves like this haven’t taken place in bear markets—they’ve taken place closer to the start of new bull markets. In fact, we saw big 50-day moves in 1982, 1991, 1997, 1998, and 2009, which weren’t the worst times for continued gains over the coming 6- to 12- months.
Tune in now
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This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth in the podcast may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
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All index and market data from FactSet and MarketWatch.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
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