LPL Financial Market Signals Podcast

A Really Tough Week l LPL Market Signals Podcast

LPL Research

As we wait for new COVID-19 cases to peak in the United States, we look at recent bear market bounces and high unemployment claims. The good news is the market may be looking to the other side already.

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Last week the headlines were about as bad as our country has ever seen, with the White House anticipating as many of 240,000 deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The LPL strategists discuss the recent news, along with the reasons this bounce appears to be a bear market rally and may be due for another move lower over the coming weeks.

How bad will it be?

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, almost 10 million initial claims for unemployment were filed over the past two weeks, nearly matching the number of total claims filed each year over the past few years. The LPL strategists agree we are in a sharp recession, and the economic data is only going to get worse over the coming months. If there is any good news, the market is a forward-looking mechanism, and although the headlines will be poor, the market already could be looking ahead to better times.

Bear Bounce

With all the negative headlines last week, stocks held fairly tough, losing only a few percentage points. The LPL strategists still expect a potential move lower over the coming weeks, though, as history is littered with large market crashes, a solid bounce, then a retest of the lows. As of now, we see no reason to think this bear market will be any different.

Positive news

According to various news reports over the weekend, there were less new COVID-19 cases in New York, and various positive reports from doctors on medications that can be used to help combat the COVID-19 virus. We are a long way from a cure, and this week could be one of the worst weeks in our country’s history. We are nearing a potential peak in the number of new cases in the United States, which could be one of the most important things needed for us to finally see a path out of this horrible pandemic.

Large bounces are normal during a bear market

Tune in now

Listen to the entire podcast to get the LPL strategists’ views and insights on current market trends in the US and global economies. To listen to previous podcasts go to Market Signals podcast. You can subscribe to Market Signals on iTunesGoogle Play, or Spotify.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth in the podcast may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. 

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For Public Use — Tracking #: 1-978151 (04/21)